Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to maintain its key interest rate through the current quarter and possibly until Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May, a shift from previous expectations of rate cuts by March [1][4]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is projected to continue growing strongly, with a growth rate of 4.3% in the third quarter and an expected expansion of 2.3% this year, up from 2.2% last year [8]. - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, which argues against near-term rate cuts, although economists anticipate at least two reductions later in the year [2]. Federal Reserve Policy - A majority of economists (58%) expect the Fed to keep rates at 3.50%-3.75% during the January meeting, contrasting with last month's expectations for at least one reduction [4]. - There is a divided outlook among Fed policymakers, with a slight majority (55 out of 100) expecting rate cuts to resume after Powell's term ends in May [6]. Political Influence - President Trump has criticized Powell for not lowering rates aggressively and has initiated criminal charges against him related to Fed headquarters renovations, which may impact the Fed's independence [3][7]. - The selection of the next Fed chair is anticipated to face significant pushback due to ongoing investigations, potentially affecting future interest rate decisions [7].

The US supreme court will hear oral arguments over Donald Trump’s bid to fire a Federal Reserve governor on Wednesday morning, as his administration continues its extraordinary campaign for control over the central bank.The US president tried to fire Lisa Cook in August over apparent discrepancies on mortgage applications Trump’s officials claim are evidence of fraud.Afederal court blocked Cook’s removal, and she remains on the Fed’s rate-setting board. The supreme court’s decision on the case will test the ...

Market Reactions - US stock futures fell, with S&P 500 futures down about 0.7% and Nasdaq futures down 1.0% amid thin trading due to a holiday [2][5] - The dollar weakened against safe-haven currencies, slipping against the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc [2][5] - Gold and silver reached record highs as investors sought safety, while oil prices eased due to concerns over a potential trade dispute impacting global growth [2][5] European Market Sentiment - Major European indices, including EUROSTOXX 50 and Germany's DAX futures, were down 1.1% [2][5] - The European Union condemned the tariff threat from the US, viewing it as economic coercion related to Greenland [3][5] - The EU is considering retaliatory tariffs on €93 billion ($108 billion) worth of US imports, which were previously approved but suspended [3][5] Investment Dynamics - European countries hold approximately $8 trillion in US bonds and equities, nearly double that of the rest of the world combined, which could lead to repatriation of investments [3][5] - Analysts warn that leveraging capital flows could be more disruptive to markets than tariffs alone, given the current negative net international investment position of the US [3][5] Economic Data and Corporate Earnings - Investors are awaiting Chinese economic data, with growth expected to slow to 4.4% in the December quarter from 4.8% previously [3][5] - Delayed data on US core inflation and consumer spending for November is expected to influence Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations [3][5] - Corporate earnings reports are anticipated from major companies including Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, General Electric, and Intel [3][5] Currency and Commodity Markets - The euro rose 0.1% to $1.1613, while sterling increased to $1.3387; the dollar fell 0.2% against the Swiss franc and 0.3% against the yen [3][5] - Gold prices climbed 1.5% to $4,664 an ounce, while oil prices saw a slight decline, with Brent crude down 0.5% at $63.84 a barrel and US crude off 0.4% at $59.18 [3][5]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell over comments regarding a $2.5 billion building renovation project, which Powell described as a "pretext" for the White House's desire to influence interest rate policy [3][5][6] - Powell indicated that the recent threat is not about his congressional testimony or the renovation itself, but rather a consequence of the Federal Reserve's independence in setting interest rates based on public interest rather than presidential preferences [6] Group 2 - President Trump suggested the possibility of blocking Exxon Mobil from investing in Venezuela after the company's CEO labeled the country as "uninvestable" during a recent meeting [4] - The European automotive sector, after two years of underperformance, is showing signs of recovery, with potential for improvement by 2026 according to investment strategist Joachim Klement [5]

Bitcoin’s price jumped 2% on Sunday after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell vowed to hold firm against a new attack from US President Donald Trump. In Trump’s latest salvo, the Justice Department served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas and is threatening a criminal indictment. That means the DOJ is legally forcing the Fed to hand over evidence relating to Powell’s testimony on office renovations to the Senate Banking Committee in June 2025 to decide if a crime was committed. “This unprecedented actio ...

Core Viewpoint - The future of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after his term ends in May 2026 is uncertain, with speculation surrounding whether he will remain on the board as a governor or leave the Fed entirely [1][5][12]. Group 1: Powell's Decision and Its Implications - Powell's potential departure could shift the balance of power on the Fed's Board of Governors, currently with three Trump appointees out of seven, potentially allowing the president to exert more influence over monetary policy [6][10]. - The Federal Reserve Act may allow the board's majority to dismiss individual bank presidents opposing rate cuts, raising concerns about the independence of the Fed if Powell were to leave [7][10]. - Powell's decision is complicated by the ongoing legal case involving Fed Governor Lisa Cook, which could affect the board's composition and Trump's ability to appoint new members [8][9]. Group 2: Political Context and Speculation - The current political climate is unprecedented, with President Trump openly seeking control over Fed policy, contrasting with past chairs who transitioned quietly to other roles [3][5]. - Powell's reluctance to disclose his future plans may serve as a strategic move to maintain leverage over the administration, signaling his willingness to stay or leave based on the president's nominee choices [11][13]. - Observers believe that Powell is likely to leave when his chairmanship ends, as staying could invite greater political scrutiny and undermine the Fed's independence [12].

In this articleJPMA projected illumination marking the 75th anniversary of the Schuman Declaration, on the Grossmarkthalle building at the European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, on May 9, 2025.Alex Kraus/Bloomberg via Getty ImagesInvestors are gearing up for the last interest-rate decisions of 2025, with four of Europe's central banks announcing their monetary policies and macroeconomic outlooks on Thursday.The European Central Bank, Bank of England, Riksbank, and Norges Bank are all meet ...

Bitcoin (BTC) drifted below $90,000 on Sunday during quiet trading, with investors showing limited appetite for risk ahead of a busy week of economic data and central bank events. The largest cryptocurrency was trading around $89,600 as of 12:40 p.m. UTC, down approximately 0.9% in the preceding 24 hours, marginally higher on the week, and still down roughly 7.6% over the past month. Ether (ETH) changed hands near $3,104, down on the day but up more than 2% over the past seven days, outperforming bitcoin ...

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve's governing board unanimously approved the reappointment of nearly all of the Fed's 12 regional bank presidents, a group that has come under scrutiny by the Trump administration. The Fed's board approved the reappointment of 11 of the presidents, with the only exception being the Atlanta Fed, where current president Raphael Bostic is stepping down at the end of the February and a new president hasn't been named. The regional bank presidents all serve five-year terms ...

Mortgage Rates and Federal Reserve Actions - Mortgage rates have increased slightly, with the average 30-year mortgage rate at 6.22%, up from 6.19% last week, and the average 15-year mortgage rate at 5.54%, up from 5.44% [1][2] - The Federal Reserve cut benchmark interest rates by 25 basis points, but this decision faced dissent among governors, indicating a divided stance amid a weakening labor market and inflation above the 2% target [2][3] Economic Data and Future Outlook - Financial markets are anticipating upcoming economic data on US hiring and inflation, which may influence Treasury yields and mortgage rates [2][3] - Fed governors expect one more interest rate cut in 2026, which could lead to lower mortgage rates if economic data supports this outlook [3][4] Market Activity - Steady mortgage rates have contributed to a 14% increase in refinancing applications, while applications for home purchases have decreased by 2% [5]