V i e w p o i n t | 27 Jun 2025 09:59:52 ET │ 10 pages Global Economics Shock simulation: Simultaneous US tariffs and tax cuts CITI'S TAKE In this edition, we model the combined effect of US tariffs and US tax cuts. We simulate an effective US tariff rate of around 15%, coupled with tax cuts worth 1% of GDP. The tax cuts offset much of the initial downturn in GDP caused by the increase in tariffs. Revenues from the latter are balanced by revenue losses from the former, resulting in a negligeable net budgeta ...

By: Janet Henry and James Pomeroy Economics Global www.research.hsbc.com Q3 2025 Global Economics Uneven ground Frontloading ahead of US tariffs lifted global growth in Q1 but more US tariffs loom… …while complex US trade and fiscal negotiations are ongoing, and major conflicts are still under way Disclosures & Disclaimer: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it. Economics ● Global Q3 2025 Execut ...

President Donald Trump said he has three or four people in mind to succeed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell when his term expires next year. “I know within three or four people,” Trump said Wednesday during a press conference at The Hague, where he is attending the NATO summit. “I mean he goes out pretty soon, fortunately, because I think he’s terrible.” Trump did not name his potential replacements for the central banker nor did he lay out a timeline for a decision. Powell’s term as chair ends in May 20 ...

June 8, 2025 10:07 PM GMT HK Exchanges & Clearing | Asia Pacific More confidence in financial system cycle bottom; OW | What's Changed | | | | --- | --- | --- | | HK Exchanges & Clearing (0388.HK) | From | To | | Price Target | HK$440.00 | HK$500.00 | We raise our ADV and earnings forecasts for HKEX, factoring in strong YTD performance and higher confidence in a financial system cycle bottom. We expect the shift from financial tightening to development to support ADV and IPO volume amid loosening IPO requir ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the transportation industry or specific companies within it. Core Insights - The report indicates a potential surge in freight volumes from China to the US, driven by expected increases in imports at the Port of Los Angeles, with vessel traffic projected to rise by 6% and TEUs by 39% in the coming weeks [3][4][5] - Trade uncertainty remains high due to recent court involvement over tariffs, which could impact inflation, consumer spending, and global freight flows [2][7] - The report outlines three potential scenarios for trade dynamics in 2025, with a focus on the implications of a 90-day tariff pause with China [10][11][12] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact and Freight Trends - The report tracks high-frequency data to assess the ongoing impact of tariffs on global supply chains, noting that while there has been a recent decline in freight volumes from China, a rebound is anticipated [5][6][14] - Container rates have shown volatility, with a recent uptick followed by flattening, indicating potential shifts in demand and supply dynamics [15][38] Trade Volume Analysis - Year-over-year (YoY) comparisons show a significant drop in laden container vessels from China to the US, with a decrease of 37% YoY and TEUs down by 34% YoY [22][14] - The report estimates that April saw an increase of approximately $4 billion in imports compared to the previous year, while May experienced a decline of about $3 billion [4][61] Future Scenarios and Economic Implications - The report presents two broad scenarios for 2025: a pull-forward surge in activity or a continued slowdown due to uncertainty, impacting inventory levels and freight demand [7][11] - Potential outcomes include a strong second half of 2025 if consumer demand rebounds or a bear case scenario if economic conditions worsen [12][15] Company-Specific Insights - Companies such as FedEx, UPS, and freight forwarders like Expeditors International and C.H. Robinson are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of increased freight activity during periods of volatility [15][85] - The report notes that intermodal traffic has declined by 5% YoY, reflecting ongoing challenges in the transportation sector [47][15]

19 May 2025 | 5:00AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Should Point to China Reversal - But Need Another Week US Tariff Impact Tracker – Net, net, the world order has shifted once again demonstrating the roiling impact of tariffs and tariff direction on week-to-week sentiment as to how it will impact global freight flows. With the China 90 Day deal, we once again are of the perception that pull-forward – at least in part – will re-emerge as the dominant action in ...

19 May 2025 | 12:58PM HKT China: Activity data weakened sequentially in April amid the US tariff hit Bottom line: China's activity data weakened sequentially in April, reflecting both the negative impact of increased US tariffs and still-soft domestic demand. Compared to market consensus, fixed asset investment (FAI) and retail sales missed modestly, while industrial production (IP) slightly beat. Retail sales growth declined in April, mainly driven by weaker automobile sales growth despite the ongoing cons ...

12 May 2025 | 5:02AM EDT Americas Transportation: US Tariff Impact Tracker – High Frequency Trends Still Point To China trade Flow Weakness to USA US Tariff Impact Tracker – Net, net, trend bifurcation continues with worries perhaps on the rise for product availability should the trade war persist given potential for freight air pocket in the 2H of the second quarter. Key observations from this week's report are as follows: Goldman Sachs Americas Transportation What the Tracker Is (Previously Published): Wh ...

Discount eTailers Temu and Shein reportedly raised prices in response to new U.S. tariffs. Temu started adding "import charges" of about 145%, while Shein raised prices without adding a separate charge, CNBC reported Monday (April 28). Both companies warned their customers earlier this month that they would raise prices after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs and vowed to end the de minimis exemption that allows packages valued under $800 to enter the United States without paying duties, according to t ...

Investment Rating - The industry view for China's financial sector is rated as Attractive [4] Core Insights - China's banks have sufficient capacity to absorb potential risks from increased US tariffs, with stable earnings and dividends expected to support share performance [1][12] - The potential industrial non-performing loan (NPL) ratio is forecasted to rise to 10-11% from 8.4% at the end of 2024 due to tariff impacts [15][20] - The analysis indicates that approximately 4% of total loans, primarily export-related credits, are exposed to tariff risks, with electronics and electrical equipment being the most affected sectors [10][12] Summary by Sections Financial Stability - Major Chinese banks are expected to maintain stable earnings and dividends despite potential delays in net interest margin (NIM) and fee income recovery [1][58] - The banking sector has been digesting over RMB 3 trillion of total NPLs annually, with a consistent provision charge of around RMB 1.3 trillion [18][19] Risk Assessment - The incremental NPL from higher tariffs could be 2-3% for industrial loans, translating to an increase of 40-60 basis points in total loans [7][12] - The forecast suggests that if tariffs affect one-third of export-oriented manufacturing credits, the cumulative industrial NPL ratio could reach 15-16% [20][22] Sector-Specific Insights - The electronics sector accounts for 22% of exports to the US, while apparel and furniture have higher revenue exposure, indicating varying levels of risk across sectors [10][11] - Continued capital expenditure rationalization in the industrial sector is expected to ease some risks associated with industrial loans [33][37] Market Dynamics - The ongoing tariff dynamics are anticipated to create uncertainties in the A-share market, affecting both fundamentals and investor sentiment [58] - A shift in preference back to defensive banks from insurance is noted, reflecting market volatility and the need for stable earnings [56][58]