Group 1 - The year 2025 is described as interesting, with ongoing discussions about US tariffs that remain unresolved [1] - The investing group Trade With Beta offers features such as frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of over 1200 equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, and an actively managed portfolio [1] - The article expresses a beneficial long position in the shares of DUKB, indicating a positive outlook on this stock [1] Group 2 - There is a short position on DUK-A, suggesting a bearish sentiment towards this stock [2] - The article emphasizes that past performance is not indicative of future results, highlighting the uncertainty in investment outcomes [2] - Seeking Alpha is noted as not being a licensed securities dealer or investment adviser, indicating that the opinions expressed may not reflect the views of the platform as a whole [2]

The gyrations of South Africa’s rand and Brazil’s real illustrate the complexities traders face in evaluating the potential impact of US tariffs https://t.co/vNRX0IVhDK ...

Thailand’s longer-maturity bonds are emerging as the top pick for investors seeking shelter from the economic impact of higher US tariffs and domestic political turmoil https://t.co/yx7l4QLqIf ...

The Bank of Korea left its policy rate unchanged Thursday as it monitors the impact of its earlier easing moves on soaring home prices and an economy threatened by higher US tariffs https://t.co/lMzLXwqdYZ ...

Market Outlook - China's technology giants are expected to overcome the impact of increased US tariffs [1] - The future of these companies relies more on the attitude of local consumers [1]

Lesotho declares state of disaster amid US tariff uncertainty https://t.co/YwxYUfoOBq ...

India’s southern states are using a Made in China playbook to become the next manufacturing hub amid steep US tariffs https://t.co/mID3nIrwOM ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Japan Equity Strategy Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Japanese corporate sector**, focusing on the findings from the **June BOJ Tankan survey** regarding business sentiment and corporate earnings forecasts. Key Points and Arguments Impact of US Tariffs - The June BOJ Tankan indicates that **US tariffs have not significantly dampened corporate sentiment**, with a business conditions diffusion index (DI) for large manufacturers remaining steady at **13 points**, surpassing the Bloomberg consensus of **10 points** [1][4] - However, corporate earnings forecasts predict a **10% drag on net profit**, particularly affecting the **manufacturing sector**, especially **automobiles** and other processing industries [1][4] Corporate Earnings Forecasts - The FY2025 net profit growth forecast for large enterprises is revised to **-5.3%**, down from **-1.3%** in the March survey, aligning with the broader TSE Prime constituents' forecast of **-5.8%** [1][4] - **Manufacturers** lowered their profit growth forecast to **-9.8%**, while **non-manufacturers** raised theirs to **-0.8%** from **-2.0%** [1][4] Sales and Capital Expenditure (Capex) - Both manufacturers and non-manufacturers have increased their sales forecasts, with capex plans revised sharply upward to **+11.5% YoY** overall for large enterprises, driven by investments in **semiconductors**, **automation**, and **power transmission/distribution** [1][5] - Capex growth for manufacturers is projected at **+14.3%**, while non-manufacturers expect **+9.9%** [5] Foreign Exchange and Inflation Outlook - The corporate forex estimate for FY2025 is set at **¥145/$**, indicating a **4% YoY strengthening of the yen**, which is expected to negatively impact EPS by approximately **2 percentage points** [5][30] - The inflation outlook has slightly decreased, with companies expecting general prices to rise by **2.4%** in one year, down from **2.5%** previously [5][31] Sector-Specific Insights - Business conditions DI worsened in sectors more exposed to US tariffs, such as **automobiles** and **machinery**, while sectors like **materials** (paper & pulp, steel, oil & coal) and **construction** showed improvement [4][5] - The market consensus appears more cautious than company outlooks in sectors like **steel**, **services**, and **paper & pulp**, while being relatively optimistic for **electric & gas utilities**, **real estate**, and **communications** [4][5] Overall Corporate Sentiment - Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, corporate earnings remain resilient, particularly in domestic non-manufacturing sectors, which aligns with the investment strategy focusing on domestic demand sectors and potential upside in **semiconductors** and **machinery** [1][5] Additional Important Information - The report highlights the **limited impact of tariffs** on business conditions, with a flat DI for manufacturers and slight deterioration for non-manufacturers, which was in line with market expectations [4][5] - The report also notes that the **FY2025 TOPIX consensus EPS** has seen downward revisions in overseas demand sectors, particularly **automobiles**, which have been lowered by **18%** over the past three months, yet still shows a modest **+3.3% YoY profit growth forecast** as of end-June [4][5] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Japanese corporate sector and its outlook amidst external pressures.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The global economic outlook remains uncertain due to ongoing US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran and its nuclear ambitions [3][4][24] - US tariffs are expected to have a significant impact on both US and global growth, with a projected decline in global GDP from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 [8][22] - The average effective tariff rate for US consumers has reached 15.8%, the highest since 1936, indicating a substantial increase in trade costs [9][46] Summary by Sections Key Forecasts - Global GDP growth is forecasted to slow from 2.8% in 2024 to 2.5% in 2025 and further to 2.3% in 2026 [22] - Developed economies are expected to grow at a slower pace compared to emerging markets, with the US GDP growth projected at 1.8% for 2025 [22] Economic Environment - The report highlights the volatility in global trade data due to frontloading ahead of US tariffs, which has led to a surge in imports followed by a sharp decline [12][52] - US tariffs are anticipated to slow trade growth, with global trade growth projected at just 1.8% in 2025 and 0.6% in 2026 [12][71] Tariff Implications - US tariffs are described as a multi-purpose tool that will likely lead to higher inflation and lower growth in the US, with ongoing uncertainty regarding future tariff negotiations [11][50] - The report notes that countries with lower exposure to US tariffs may benefit, particularly those positioned to supply components currently sourced from mainland China [13][74] Consumer Spending and Inflation - US consumer spending is expected to slow due to weaker employment and slower real wage growth, while inflation pressures may persist despite a general slowdown in growth [15][16] - The report anticipates sticky core inflation in the US, influenced by supply shocks from tariffs and lower immigration [16] Central Bank Actions - The Federal Reserve and European Central Bank are expected to pause rate changes during the summer, amidst ongoing global economic uncertainty [17][31] - Divergences in central bank policies are noted, with the Fed likely to cut rates modestly by the end of 2026 [17] Fiscal Policy and Trade Negotiations - Ongoing US fiscal negotiations are highlighted as critical, with potential implications for economic growth depending on the outcomes [18][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring trade negotiations and their impact on global economic dynamics [20][33]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the consumer electronics sector in Japan Core Insights - The potential for a decline in US consumer spending due to tariff costs being passed on to consumers warrants attention, although there are positives for companies investing in the US [1] - Companies with significant production in China are likely to face the largest impacts from tariffs, particularly in the smartphone and PC categories [2] - Companies aggressively investing in US manufacturing may benefit from tariff policies aimed at reviving the US manufacturing sector [3] - The appreciation of the yen could provide benefits that outweigh the negatives from tariffs for certain companies with low sales exposure to the US [4] Summary by Sections Consumer Spending and Tariffs - There is a risk of decline in US consumer spending as tariffs increase costs for consumer electronics, with global smartphone shipments rising 1.5% year-on-year to 304.9 million and PC shipments increasing 4.9% to 63.2 million [1] Impact of Tariffs on Production - A significant portion of smartphones and PCs are produced in China, while large appliances are primarily made in Mexico. The US has imposed additional tariffs of 145% on China and 10% on other countries, with temporary exemptions for smartphones and PCs [2] Opportunities for US Investments - Companies like Panasonic Holdings and Fujifilm Holdings are making substantial investments in US manufacturing, which may provide them with a competitive advantage over rivals lacking a US presence [3] Currency Effects - Companies with low sales exposure to the US may benefit from yen appreciation, potentially improving their cost of goods sold (COGS) ratios and profits despite tariff impacts [4]