Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" in the U.S., which is expected to increase inflationary pressures due to the impact on imports [6][10] - It highlights the need to understand how much of the current inflation has already accounted for tariffs and what secondary risks may arise post-implementation [6] - The article also mentions the divergence between PMI and EPMI, indicating a potential disconnect in economic indicators [7] Group 2 - The U.S. will impose a baseline tariff of 10% on global imports starting April 5, with additional tariffs on 60 countries, including specific rates for China (34%), the EU (20%), Vietnam (46%), and others [10] - The article notes that market risk appetite has deteriorated, leading to a rise in gold prices, which reflects investor concerns amid the tariff announcements [8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a "震荡" (fluctuating) rating for the dollar in the short term, with expectations of a 5% to 15% increase over the next 1-3 months [39]. Core Insights - Market risk appetite continues to decline, with most stock markets experiencing downturns and bond yields generally falling, as evidenced by the U.S. Treasury yield dropping to 4.21% [9][11]. - The U.S. dollar index rose by 0.94% to 107.6, while all non-U.S. currencies depreciated, including a 0.54% drop in offshore RMB and a 2.1% decline in Brent crude oil to $73.4 per barrel [9][25][28]. - The imposition of tariffs by Trump on non-energy imports from Mexico and Canada at 25% and an additional 10% on China is expected to further suppress market risk appetite [2][32]. Summary by Sections Global Market Overview - The report highlights a continued decline in market risk appetite, with most stock markets down and bond yields falling, particularly the U.S. Treasury yield at 4.21% [9][11]. - The dollar index increased by 0.94% to 107.6, while gold prices fell by 2.7% to $2858 per ounce, and the VIX index rose to 19.6 [9][28]. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance - Stock markets globally are mostly retreating, with the S&P 500 down 0.98% and the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.72% [10][11]. - Economic data shows signs of weakening, with new home sales in January annualized at 657,000, below expectations of 680,000 [11]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy remains on hold, with hawkish comments suggesting a need for higher interest rates [2][11]. Hotspot Tracking - The report notes an increase in tariff pressures from Trump, which is expected to have significant implications for market dynamics and economic conditions [3][32].