【机构观点】 非农就业数据不仅证伪了关联储关于就业市场强劲的论断，显著升了9月的降息顶期。CPI数据低于市 场预期，史强化了9月降息预期。但核心CPI创2月以来新高，叠加7月 PPI也远超预期，创2月以米新 高，9月降息50基点率随之下降:目前市场普遍押注9月降息25基点，虽然威尔在全球央行年会上讲话异 常派，市场仍表现得较为谨慎。下半年美联储人概车进入降息周期、全球贸易擦缓和、全球央行持续购 金等因素均对黄金价格构成利灯。美国违胀数反复，关税带来的通胀效果尚不明确，短期抑制金价。 美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表重磅讲话，称风险平衡似乎正在发生变化，当前的形势 意味着，就业面临的下行风险上升。随着政策处于紧缩区域，这种风险平衡的转变可能意味着需要调整 政策立场。鲍威尔讲话后，交易员加大对美联储9月降息的押注，完全消化年底前降息两次预期。 澳新银行在给客户的报告中称，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔正确地指出了美国劳动力市场在未来一个月 可能迅速走弱的风险，这使得恢复货币宽松政策成为必要。鲍威尔的基本假设是，关税将导致一次性价 格上涨，但可能需要一段时间才能完全显现。澳新银行表示，早期数据表明关税对消费者价 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the current state of the **U.S. economy**, focusing on GDP growth, consumer behavior, and investment trends, particularly in the context of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and interest rate decisions. Core Insights and Arguments - **GDP Growth**: The U.S. GDP experienced an annualized quarter-on-quarter growth of **3%** in Q2, surpassing expectations of **2.5%** and recovering from a decline of **-0.5%** in Q1. This growth was influenced by fluctuations in imports and inventory changes [2][4]. - **Impact of Tariffs**: In Q1, U.S. producers rushed to import goods and replenish inventories due to tariff threats, which negatively impacted GDP. In Q2, a significant slowdown in imports, particularly from China and South Korea, led to a rebound in the import-export component to approximately **6%**, providing strong support [2][3]. - **Consumer Spending**: Private consumption, fixed asset investment, and government spending have shown a decline for two consecutive quarters, with growth rates dropping from **1.6%** in Q1 to **1.1%** in Q2. Durable goods consumption is primarily driven by automotive sales, but declining car prices and high inventory levels pose risks [1][4]. - **Investment Trends**: Fixed asset investment weakened significantly, decreasing from **1.8%** in the previous quarter to **0.1%**. Residential investment fell by **1.2%**, and non-residential construction investment dropped by **2.7%**. Real estate sales hit a new low since 2012, with both new and existing home sales falling short of expectations [3][5]. - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates during its recent meeting, with two officials opposing the decision to not cut rates in July, marking the largest disagreement since 1993. There is uncertainty regarding future rate cuts, with expectations for a September cut reduced from **50%-60%** to **40%-50%** [2][5]. - **Inflation and Employment**: Inflationary pressures are being absorbed more by retailers, leading to potential delays in cost transmission. The job market is showing signs of weakness, which could underestimate demand risks [3][4]. Other Important Insights - **Market Reactions**: The rise of the U.S. dollar index to around **100** has led to a decline in gold prices. The Federal Reserve's approach remains flexible, with potential for clear guidance if necessary [6]. - **Debt Issuance Impact**: An increase in Treasury debt issuance in Q3 could lead to rising yields, presenting an opportunity for positioning in U.S. Treasuries, despite a significant rebound in the dollar index [9]. - **Sector Sensitivity**: Interest-sensitive sectors such as automotive and real estate are expected to weaken if nominal interest rates remain high, emphasizing the importance of upcoming employment data [7][8].

Group 1: International Gold Market - International gold price fluctuated and closed down at $3314.18 per ounce, with a high of $3345.35 and a low of $3301.47 during the trading day [1][9] - The COMEX gold futures closed at $3314.00 per ounce [9] - SPDR Gold ETF holdings stood at 956.23 tons [9][10] Group 2: Currency and Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 495.8 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 325.1 billion yuan after 170.7 billion yuan matured [2][10] - The onshore RMB closed at 7.1729 against the USD, down 50 basis points from the previous trading day, with the USD index rising by 1.02% to 98.6694 [15][2] Group 3: Macro Events and Trade Agreements - Trump announced that the U.S. will soon impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, with global tariffs expected to be around 15-20% [2][17] - The EU and U.S. have established a general framework for a trade agreement, but specific details, including those related to alcoholic beverages, are still under negotiation [2][17] - The trade agreement includes a $750 billion energy purchase commitment and a $600 billion investment commitment from the EU, which may increase energy costs in Europe and accelerate capital outflow, negatively impacting the European economy [2][17] Group 4: Stock Market Performance - U.S. major stock indices showed mixed results, with the Dow down 0.14% at 44,837.56 points, S&P 500 up 0.02% at 6,389.77 points, and Nasdaq up 0.33% at 21,178.58 points [16] - Chinese A-shares saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.12% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.44% [16]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the US manufacturing PMI to 49.5 in July, marking the lowest level since December 2024 [4] - The European Central Bank has maintained its three key interest rates, aligning with market expectations [4] - The EU has approved a countermeasure plan against US tariffs, amounting to €93 billion [4] Economic Data - The Baltic Dry Index increased by 4.18% to 2120.00 [5] - The Nasdaq Index closed at 21057.96, up by 0.18%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.70% to 44693.91 [5] - The ICE Brent crude oil price rose by 1.24% to $69.36 [5] - The US dollar index increased by 0.29% to 97.49 [5] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73, and the Shenzhen Composite Index increased by 1.19% to 2203.09 [5]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the price of gold in Shanghai on July 25, 2025, which is 773.85 CNY per gram, indicating a slight decrease compared to the international gold price of 774.59 CNY per gram, with a difference of 0.74 CNY per gram [1][3]

Group 1 - The core point of the article indicates that on July 24, 2025, the morning gold price in Shanghai was 777.76 CNY per gram, which is lower than the international gold price of 778.47 CNY per gram by 0.71 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the current status of spot gold prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Despite the uncertainty of Powell's tenure, under Trump's strong intervention, the Fed's monetary policy will gradually shift to a dovish stance, which is a significant positive factor for international silver prices. Gold prices will also benefit, but to a lesser extent than silver. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the precious metals market. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai Gold is 760 - 800 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai Silver is 9095 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Quotes - **Domestic Market**: Shanghai Gold (Au) rose 0.36% to 778.10 yuan/gram, and Shanghai Silver (Ag) rose 0.33% to 9216.00 yuan/kilogram. Au(T + D) rose 0.32% to 773.37 yuan/gram, and Ag(T + D) rose 0.96% to 9211.00 yuan/kilogram [2][4]. - **International Market**: COMEX gold fell 0.08% to 3355.70 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.15% to 38.41 dollars/ounce. London gold rose 1.10% to 3355.10 dollars/ounce, and London silver rose 1.36% to 38.27 dollars/ounce [2][4]. - **Other Market Indicators**: The 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.44%, and the US dollar index was 98.42. The Dow Jones Index fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 fell 0.01%, and the Nasdaq Index rose 0.05% [2][4]. Market Outlook - **Powell's Situation**: Trump inquired about firing Powell, which caused a short - term increase in gold and silver prices. Although Trump later said there was no plan to fire Powell, he was considering candidates for the next Fed chair, and the candidates' views on monetary policy are dovish [2][3]. - **Impact on Precious Metals**: A dovish Fed monetary policy is beneficial for international silver prices, and gold prices will also be positively affected, but silver is expected to perform stronger. It is advisable to maintain a long - position strategy [3]. Data Tables and Charts - **Key Data of Gold and Silver**: On July 18, 2025, COMEX gold's closing price rose 0.30%, while its trading volume decreased by 28.86%. COMEX silver's closing price fell 0.03%, and its position increased by 5.33% [7]. - **Price and Volume Charts**: There are multiple charts showing the relationships between gold and silver prices, trading volumes, positions, and other factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, and historical price trends [9][11][13][17][28][29]. - **Near - and Far - Month Structures**: The near - and far - month structures of COMEX gold, London gold, Shanghai Gold, COMEX silver, London silver, and Shanghai Silver are presented, along with the price differences between different contracts [19][21][31][39]. - **Net Long Positions of Management Funds**: The relationships between the net long positions of management funds in COMEX gold and silver and their prices are shown [41][47]. - **ETF Positions**: The total positions of gold and silver ETFs are presented [48]. - **Internal - External Price Differences**: The internal - external price differences of gold and silver on July 18, 2025, are calculated, including the price differences between SHFE and COMEX, and SGE and LBMA [50]. - **Moving Averages and Seasonal Charts**: The 5 - day moving averages and seasonal charts of the internal - external price differences of gold and silver are provided [51][53].

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the midday gold price in Shanghai on July 17, 2025, which is 772 CNY per gram, showing a premium of 1.34 CNY over the international gold price of 770.66 CNY per gram [1] Group 2 - The article mentions the current spot gold price, indicating its relevance in the market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic gold market has experienced a slight decline in jewelry gold prices, with the highest drop being 13 yuan per gram, indicating a minor adjustment in the market [1][4]. Price Summary - Major brands have reported the following gold prices: - Chow Sang Sang: 1013 yuan/gram, down 5 yuan - Lao Miao: 1007 yuan/gram, down 5 yuan - Liufuk: 1012 yuan/gram, down 8 yuan - Zhou Dafu: 1012 yuan/gram, down 8 yuan - Zhou Liufu: 992 yuan/gram, down 13 yuan - Cai Bai: 990 yuan/gram, unchanged [1][3][4]. Market Dynamics - The price difference between the highest and lowest gold prices among brands is now 23 yuan/gram, which has slightly narrowed [1]. - In contrast to gold, platinum prices have seen an increase, with Chow Sang Sang's platinum jewelry rising by 13 yuan/gram to 525 yuan/gram [4]. International Gold Price Trends - The international spot gold price has shown volatility, dropping to a low of 3347.09 USD/ounce before recovering to 3393.49 USD/ounce, but ultimately closing at 3368.19 USD/ounce, reflecting a marginal increase of 0.02% [7]. - As of the latest update, the spot gold price is reported at 3323.18 USD/ounce, down 1.34% [7]. Economic Indicators - Recent economic data from the U.S. indicates a stable economy, with the June S&P Global Services PMI at 53.1, above the expected 52.9, and the Manufacturing PMI at 52, exceeding the forecast of 51 [7]. - These indicators have contributed to market expectations of a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, which may continue to pressure gold prices [7]. Future Outlook - The potential for further declines in gold prices remains, contingent on the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates in July [8]. - The upcoming U.S. consumer confidence index is also anticipated to impact gold prices, suggesting that investors should remain vigilant [8].

Core Viewpoint - Chow Tai Fook's revenue for the fiscal year 2025 decreased by 17.5% to HKD 89.656 billion, influenced by external macroeconomic factors and high gold prices affecting consumer sentiment [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's operating profit showed resilience, increasing by 9.8% to HKD 14.746 billion despite the decline in revenue [1] - Operating profit margin expanded by 400 basis points to 16.4% [1] - The return on equity reached 21.9%, improving from the historical average of 18.4% over the past five years [1]