方正证券主要观点如下： 智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研报称，本次育儿补贴制度落实了年初政府工作报告的要求，是从全 国性的角度出发迈出促进生育的积极一步，未来视政策落实的具体效果，持续的鼓励政策或有望继续推 出。乳品是婴幼儿的核心基础营养品，该行预计，随着国家育儿补贴方案逐步执行落实，乳品需求端有 望得到提振。 2025年3月，政府工作报告提出"发放育儿补贴"，当月呼和浩特市率先实施育儿补贴政策，并为产妇每 人每天提供"一杯奶"，随后部分省市也先后开始推出地方性育儿补贴政策，初步成效显现。2025年7 月，中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，并发出通知，要求各地区各部 门结合实际认真贯彻落实。此次育儿补贴制度在总体要求中重点提及"坚持改善民生、惠民利民，有效 降低家庭生育养育成本"，希望营造生育友好社会氛围。 全国性育儿补贴制度的具体补贴对象和标准 1)补贴对象：从2025年1月1日起，对符合法律法规规定生育的3周岁以下婴幼儿发放补贴，至其年满3周 岁。 2)补贴标准：育儿补贴按年发放，现阶段国家基础标准为每孩每年3600元。其中，对2025年1月1日之前 出生、不满3周岁的婴幼儿， ...

Group 1 - The China-US economic talks were held in Stockholm, where both sides agreed to extend the suspension of the US's 24% reciprocal tariffs and China's countermeasures for another 90 days [6] - The IMF significantly raised its economic growth forecast for China, increasing the expected growth rate for this year by 0.8 percentage points due to stronger-than-expected economic activity in the first half of the year and substantial tariff reductions [10] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority released documents regarding the regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers, set to be implemented on August 1, 2025, including guidelines for licensed stablecoin issuers and anti-money laundering measures [7] Group 2 - The Ministry of Finance announced the implementation of a national childcare subsidy system, with an estimated annual distribution of around 100 billion yuan, which is expected to stimulate demand in related industries [12] - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced the establishment of China Changan Automobile Group Co., Ltd., which will be managed by the State Council [6] - The economic performance of state-owned enterprises showed a total revenue of 40,749.59 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, and total profits of 2,182.53 billion yuan, down 3.1% [8]

当「生不起、养不起」成为越来越多年轻家庭的现实困境，国家终于迈出关键一步。7 月下旬，中央密 集释放重磅信号：逐步推行免费学前教育、启动全国育儿补贴制度。看似是两道「民生加法」，实则回 应的是一个国家对人口、教育与家庭的系统性重塑。教育资源怎么分？家庭负担怎么减？民办园怎么 办？这些问题，答案未必简单，但讨论已经开始。 也许，我们正在进入一个新阶段。娃不再只是家庭的事，而是国家与社会共同面对的命题。 7 月 25 日，国务院常务会议释放重磅信号，「部署逐步推行免费学前教育有关举措」。短短一句话， 让不少家长眼前一亮。中央顶层设计开始落实，免费学前教育正式「 上路」。其实，早在今年初，中 共中央、国务院就联合发布了《教育强国建设规划纲要（2024－2035年）》，明确提出：「探索逐步扩 大免费教育范围」。而这一次的国务院会议，意味着国家在「教育强国」之路上，选择从娃娃抓起。 原因藏在人口发展的数据里。 出生人口下滑。2016 年全面二孩政策落地，迎来 1786 万新生儿。但 2018 年开始，出生人口急转直 下，2023 年、2024 年中国全年出生人口分别为 902 万、954 万。 生育意愿与出生率持续低迷 ...

以下文章来源于高瑞东宏观笔记 ，作者高瑞东 刘星辰 高瑞东宏观笔记 . 对全球宏观和金融市场的思考 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 据新华社7月28日电，近日中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发了《育儿补贴制度实施方案》，并发出通知， 要求各地区各部门结合实际认真贯彻落实，标志着育儿补贴制度正式在全国范围内落地。 核心观点： 为减轻居民养育成本、促进人口高质量发展，今年3月中央已明确提出建立育儿补贴制度。本次印发的《育儿 补贴制度实施方案》出台了国家基础育儿补贴标准，并设置央地共担机制，既确保了政策的普惠性和连续性， 又能够缓解地方财政压力，有助于这一长期制度的建立。根据国家基础补贴标准测算，每年发放的育儿补贴介 于1000-1200亿元，其带动的消费支出大约拉动社零增长 ...

金十数据7月30日讯，财政部部长蓝佛安在学习时报刊文表示，加强民生保障，推动解决人民群众急难 愁盼问题。加大稳就业政策实施力度，有力实施稳岗返还、税费减免、就业补贴等政策，强化重点群体 就业保障。加大教育发展支持力度，推动教育资源扩优提质。深入实施社保、医疗、优抚等有关补助政 策，健全分层分类社会救助体系，保障好困难群众基本生活。抓紧实施育儿补贴制度，逐步推行免费学 前教育，发放失能老年人养老服务补贴，更好满足人民群众在"一老一小"方面的服务需求。 财长蓝佛安： 抓紧实施育儿补贴制度，逐步推行免费学前教育 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is the implementation of a national childcare subsidy program, which will provide an annual subsidy of 3600 yuan for children under three years old starting from January 1, 2025 [2][18]. - The subsidy will be funded primarily by the central government, with local governments having the option to increase the subsidy amount based on local conditions [2][19]. - The total financial requirement for the nationwide subsidy is estimated to be around 117 billion yuan, which represents approximately 0.4% of the general fiscal expenditure budget [3][19]. Group 2 - The implementation of the childcare subsidy is expected to reduce childcare costs and potentially increase social retail sales by about 0.2 percentage points, particularly benefiting essential categories like maternal and infant products [3][19]. - As of March 15, 2025, at least two provinces and 22 municipal-level administrative regions have already introduced their own childcare subsidy measures, often with a tiered approach favoring families with two or more children [3][20]. - Beyond financial subsidies, there is an expectation for systemic support policies in areas such as employment, education, and healthcare to enhance the overall childcare support framework [4][21]. Group 3 - The article highlights the importance of creating a comprehensive support system for families, which includes job security for women, affordable childcare services, and improved healthcare for mothers and children [4][21]. - The OECD's experiences in systemic family support policies are referenced as a potential model, emphasizing fiscal and tax support, parental leave policies, and childcare education support [4][21]. - Future policies may also focus on ensuring family leisure time, with legislative measures to protect women's rights during pregnancy and breastfeeding, and promoting flexible work arrangements [4][21].

Group 1: Subsidy Overview - The childcare subsidy program will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child for infants under three years old starting January 1, 2025[1] - The estimated total fiscal support for the subsidy will reach approximately 118.8 billion yuan in 2025, 117.7 billion yuan in 2026, and 116.2 billion yuan in 2027[1] - By 2028, the estimated fiscal subsidy amount will decrease to 95.7 billion yuan as the subsidies for children born before 2025 will have been fully disbursed[1] Group 2: Financial Structure - The central government will cover a significant portion of the subsidy, with a cost-sharing ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments, varying by region[1] - The central government will bear 85% of the costs in the eastern region, 90% in the central region, and 95% in the western region[1] - The 2025 fiscal budget indicates a significant increase in health spending, with an additional 102.4 billion yuan allocated compared to 2024, creating room for the childcare subsidy[1] Group 3: Economic Impact - The subsidy represents approximately 0.1% of China's nominal GDP for 2024, which is relatively low compared to OECD countries where similar subsidies can reach 1.5-2.5% of GDP[1] - The expected consumption increase from the subsidy is around 78 billion yuan, accounting for about 0.16% of total retail sales[1] - The program is expected to have a gradual impact on birth rates, while providing a more immediate boost to consumer spending[1] Group 4: Future Policy Directions - The childcare subsidy signals a significant shift towards more substantial birth support policies, with potential for future increases in subsidy amounts[1] - There is a possibility of developing a comprehensive policy framework that includes economic support for families, housing, and education to enhance long-term birth rates[1] - The government is also focusing on improving early childhood education and care services, as indicated by recent policy discussions[1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of the national childcare subsidy system marks a significant step in supporting childbirth in China, with a standard subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year starting from January 1, 2025, aimed at families with children under three years old [1] Group 1: National Childcare Subsidy Implementation - The national childcare subsidy will be available for all eligible families, regardless of whether they have one, two, or three children [1] - The subsidy is part of a broader trend of increasing support for childbirth policies across various regions in China [1][8] - The total subsidy over three years amounts to 10,800 yuan per child, which is particularly significant for low-income families [5] Group 2: Regional Variations and Economic Impact - There are notable regional differences in the implementation of childcare subsidies, with some areas having already established their own systems prior to the national rollout [8] - The average cost of raising a child from 0 to 17 years varies significantly across regions, with low-income families facing an average cost of 126,000 yuan for children aged 0-17 [6][7] - The subsidy is expected to alleviate some of the financial burdens associated with childbirth, especially in lower-income households [5][6] Group 3: Public Perception and Effectiveness - Research indicates that married couples without children and those with one child have the highest recognition of the effectiveness of childcare subsidies, with 70.3% and 77.2% respectively believing in its usefulness [2] - Different demographic groups respond variably to childcare support policies, with younger and higher-educated women in smaller cities placing greater importance on direct financial support [4] Group 4: Future Considerations - The implementation plan emphasizes the need for local governments to tailor their subsidy policies based on regional economic conditions and population development [10] - The success of the subsidy program will depend not only on financial support but also on addressing broader issues such as work-life balance and childcare accessibility [10]

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [2] Core Viewpoints - The implementation of the "Childcare Subsidy System" is expected to alleviate family burdens and stimulate birth rates, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per year for eligible families with children under three years old, totaling 10800 yuan for three years [3][5] - The subsidy is tax-exempt and will not be counted as income for social assistance evaluations, with local governments expected to develop specific implementation plans by late August 2025 [5][6] - The effectiveness of the subsidy may vary by region and living costs, and local governments may introduce differentiated subsidy policies based on their financial capabilities [5][6] - The report emphasizes the need for comprehensive policies covering maternity leave, childcare, education, and housing to enhance birth willingness alongside financial incentives [6] Summary by Sections Childcare Subsidy System - The subsidy is set at 3600 yuan per year for each child under three, effective from January 1, 2025, with a total potential subsidy of 10800 yuan for eligible children [5] - The program aims to create a supportive environment for families and is part of a broader strategy to enhance birth rates [5][6] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on investment opportunities in the maternal and infant product chain and dairy sectors, driven by the new childcare policies [6] - Companies like "Kids King," "Yili," "New Dairy," and "Miaokelando" are highlighted for their potential growth due to the expected increase in demand from the subsidy [6][8]

Group 1 - The government is introducing a childcare subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child per year for children under the age of three [2][1] - A press conference will be held on July 30 to discuss the childcare subsidy system and related measures to support childbirth [1] - Key officials from the National Health Commission, Ministry of Finance, National Medical Insurance Administration, and All-China Federation of Trade Unions will provide insights and answer questions [1]