联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 行 业 比 较 相关研究 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 2026 年 01 月 06 日 涨价链和非银开门红可期 —— A 股行业中观景气跟踪月报（2025 年 12 月） 本期投资提示： 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 - 一、工业部门分行业月度跟踪：煤炭开采、黑色金属采选、医药制造等景气底部改善，关注医药制造、食 品饮料、纺服轻工、橡胶塑料、化学原料和制品等板块困境反转和供给出清机会。 ⚫ 1）量（营收、工业增加值）、价（PPI ...

上市企业：阳光乳业（001318），皇氏集团（002329），贝因美（002570），麦趣尔（002719），燕塘 乳业（002732），庄园牧场（002910），新乳业（002946），西部牧业（300106），品渥食品 （300892），熊猫乳品（300898），海融科技（300915），天润乳业（600419），三元股份 （600429），光明乳业（600597），妙可蓝多（600882），伊利股份（600887），一鸣食品 （605179），佳禾食品（605300），骑士乳业（832786） 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2026-2032年中国乳制品行业市场运营态势及投资前景趋势报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年11月中国乳品进口数量为22万吨，同比下降3.1%，进口金额为10.85亿 美元，同比增长9.7%。 ...

Core Insights - The foreign trade scale in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has steadily expanded in the first 11 months of this year, with continuous optimization of market layout and release of trade vitality [1][3][5] Group 1: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - The import and export volume of the nine cities in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area reached 8.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - Nearly 70% of the import and export goods are electromechanical products, with exports primarily consisting of high-tech products such as electronic components, computers, and parts [1] - The import of consumer goods such as aquatic products and dairy products saw an increase of over 20%, highlighting the role of domestic demand [1] Group 2: Yangtze River Delta - The Yangtze River Delta's import and export volume surpassed 15 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 15.46 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [3] - The import and export to countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 11% during the same period [3] Group 3: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei - The import and export volume of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region reached 4.3 trillion yuan, with exports amounting to 1.32 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period [5] - Private enterprises' exports exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 16.1%, surpassing last year's total and accounting for 47.4% of the region's total export value, becoming the main driving force for regional foreign trade growth [5]

Core Insights - The foreign trade scale in key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has steadily expanded, with market layouts continuously optimizing and trade vitality being released [1] Group 1: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - In the first 11 months, the Greater Bay Area's nine cities achieved an import and export volume of 8.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - Nearly 70% of the import and export goods are electromechanical products, with exports primarily consisting of high-tech products such as electronic components, computers, and parts [1] - The import of consumer goods like aquatic products and dairy products saw an increase of over 20%, highlighting the significant role of domestic demand [1] Group 2: Yangtze River Delta - The Yangtze River Delta's import and export volume surpassed 15 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 15.46 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [1] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative saw an 11% increase during the same period [1] Group 3: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region recorded an import and export volume of 4.3 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, with exports reaching 1.32 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period [1] - Private enterprises' exports exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 16.1%, surpassing the total for the previous year and accounting for 47.4% of the region's total export value, becoming the main driving force for regional foreign trade growth [1]

Core Insights - The foreign trade scale in key regions such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Yangtze River Delta, and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei has steadily expanded in the first 11 months of the year, indicating a continuous release of trade vitality [1][2][7] Group 1: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area - In the first 11 months, the Greater Bay Area's nine cities achieved an import and export volume of 8.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - Nearly 70% of the import and export goods are electromechanical products, with exports primarily consisting of high-tech products such as electronic components, computers, and parts [1] - The import of consumer goods like aquatic products and dairy products saw an increase of over 20%, highlighting the significant role of domestic demand [1] Group 2: Yangtze River Delta - The Yangtze River Delta's import and export volume surpassed 15 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 15.46 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [2] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative saw an increase of 11% during the same period [2] - The region has innovatively developed various transit modes, integrating the stability of sea-rail intermodal transport with the timeliness of international express shipping, creating more flexible and efficient transportation solutions for Belt and Road trade [5] Group 3: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region recorded an import and export volume of 4.3 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, with exports reaching 1.32 trillion yuan, a historical high for the same period [7] - Private enterprises' exports exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 16.1%, surpassing last year's total and accounting for 47.4% of the region's total export value, becoming the main driving force behind the growth of foreign trade in the area [7]

Group 1 - The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area's import and export volume reached 8.3 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, marking a year-on-year growth of 4.6%, setting a historical high for the same period [2] - Nearly 70% of the import and export goods in the Greater Bay Area are electromechanical products, with high-tech products such as electronic components and computers being the main exports [2] - The import of consumer goods like aquatic products and dairy products saw an increase of over 20%, highlighting the significant role of domestic demand [2] Group 2 - The Yangtze River Delta region's import and export volume surpassed 15 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 15.46 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.2% [3] - Trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative experienced an 11% increase during the same period [3] Group 3 - The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region's import and export volume reached 4.3 trillion yuan in the first 11 months, with exports hitting a historical high of 1.32 trillion yuan [7] - Private enterprises' exports exceeded 600 billion yuan for the first time, growing by 16.1%, surpassing the total for the previous year and accounting for 47.4% of the region's total exports [7] Group 4 - The Shanghai Waigaoqiao Port Customs has innovatively developed various transfer modes this year, integrating the stability of sea-rail intermodal transport with the timeliness of international express shipping, creating more flexible and efficient transportation solutions for Belt and Road trade [5]

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value reached 4.1 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, surpassing the national average growth rate by 2 percentage points [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports totaled 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - November saw record monthly exports, with a total of 1.87 trillion yuan, marking an 18.2% increase, and imports at 200.9 billion yuan, up by 4.4% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - The EU remains the largest trading partner for Shanghai, with import and export growth accelerating by 1.1 percentage points in the first 11 months [1] - Significant growth in trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export Dynamics - Machinery and electrical products accounted for 65.4% of total exports, with a value of 1.19 trillion yuan, reflecting a growth of 6.3% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, particularly hybrid vehicles, surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, showcasing strong demand [2] - The export of liquid cargo ships increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan, driven by the green low-carbon trend [2] Import Trends - High-tech product imports reached 737.21 billion yuan, growing by 6.3%, with notable increases in semiconductor manufacturing equipment (35.4%), computers and components (24%), and aircraft (74.3%) [2] - The import of raw materials such as metal ores and copper products also saw growth, indicating active manufacturing sector activities [2] - Consumer market vitality is reflected in the increased imports of various consumer goods, including fruits, dairy products, toys, and sports equipment [2]

（来源：劳动报） 转自：劳动报 出口动能的升级亦十分明显。前11个月，上海市机电产品出口1.19万亿元，增长6.3%，占全市出口总值65.4%。"新三样"产品出口势头强劲，合计出口 1443.2亿元，增长16.5%，其中混动汽车出口257.2亿元，大幅增长174.8%。绿色低碳趋势也带动相关装备出口，液货船出口342.4亿元，增长130.5%。此外， 劳动密集型产品出口1808.6亿元，保持2.9%的稳定增长。 进口方面，高新技术产品与生产原料的增长反映出产业活力持续释放。前11个月，上海市进口高新技术产品7372.1亿元，增长6.3%，其中半导体制造设备、 电脑及其零部件、飞机进口分别增长35.4%、24%与74.3%。金属矿及矿砂、未锻轧铜及铜材等生产原料进口也分别增长11.5%和14%。消费品进口同样表现 活跃，水果、乳品进口分别增长17.8%和14.2%，玩具、游艺运动设备进口增长均超15%。 随着出口动能不断增强、市场布局持续优化，上海外贸在结构升级与规模扩张中展现出稳步向好的发展态势。 头图来源：图虫 据上海海关统计，今年前11个月，上海市外贸持续释放增长活力——进出口总值达4.1万亿元，同比增长 ...

Core Insights - Shanghai's import and export value increased by 5.7% year-on-year in the first 11 months of this year, reaching 4.1 trillion yuan, which is 2 percentage points higher than the national average growth rate [1] - Exports amounted to 1.83 trillion yuan, growing by 11.2%, while imports reached 2.27 trillion yuan, with a growth of 1.6% [1] - In November alone, the import and export value was 387.49 billion yuan, marking a 10.6% increase, with exports hitting a record high of 186.6 billion yuan, up 18.2% [1] Trade Partners and Market Diversification - Shanghai's trade with the European Union, its largest trading partner, reached 742.31 billion yuan, growing by 1.4% [1] - Trade with emerging markets such as ASEAN, the Middle East, and Africa saw significant growth, with increases of 12.6%, 17.5%, and 28.9% respectively, indicating effective market diversification [1] Export and Import Composition - In the first 11 months, Shanghai exported 1.19 trillion yuan worth of electromechanical products, accounting for 65.4% of total exports, with "new three types" products growing by 16.5% [2] - Notably, hybrid vehicle exports surged by 174.8% to 25.72 billion yuan, while liquid cargo ship exports increased by 130.5% to 34.24 billion yuan [2] - High-tech product imports totaled 737.21 billion yuan, with significant growth in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, computers, and aircraft, reflecting a robust manufacturing sector [2] Consumer Goods and Market Activity - The import of consumer goods showed positive trends, with fruit and dairy product imports growing by 17.8% and 14.2% respectively, alongside toys and sports equipment imports increasing by 17% and 15.1% [2]

Core Insights - Guangdong's foreign trade has shown steady progress this year, with growth rates surpassing the national average, highlighting its significant role in the national economy [1][2] - In the first 11 months, Guangdong's total foreign trade reached 8.61 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase year-on-year, setting a historical record for the same period [1] - The province accounted for 20.9% of the national total trade value, contributing 23.8% to the overall national growth [1] Trade Performance - In November, Guangdong's imports and exports reached 813.24 billion yuan, an 8.9% increase, leading the nation in growth [2] - Exports for November were 515.14 billion yuan, up 6.7%, while imports rose to 298.1 billion yuan, a 12.8% increase [2] - General trade accounted for 58.2% of Guangdong's total trade, with a 3.9% increase, while processing trade saw a modest growth of 0.5% [2] Export Dynamics - Guangdong's exports of electromechanical products reached 3.77 trillion yuan, a 7% increase, making up 68.5% of total exports [3] - Key export items such as electronic components and computers saw significant growth, with increases of 19.3% and 10.1% respectively [3] - Traditional products like motorcycles and game consoles also experienced notable growth rates of 34.6% and 27.2% [3] Import Trends - The demand for imports has continued to expand, with integrated circuits imported at 1.17 trillion yuan, a 15.6% increase [3] - Imports of computers and their components grew by 20.3%, while semiconductor manufacturing equipment saw a remarkable increase of 43.8% [3] Market Expansion - ASEAN, Hong Kong, and the EU are Guangdong's top three trading partners, each surpassing 1 trillion yuan in trade volume [4] - Trade with emerging markets such as the Middle East and Africa has shown strong growth, with increases of 7.8% and 10.4% respectively [4] - The "Belt and Road" initiative countries accounted for 38.5% of Guangdong's trade, totaling 3.32 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.9% [4] Consumer Goods Import - Driven by domestic consumption, imports of essential goods like grains and dairy products have seen double-digit growth, with increases of 18.6% and 19.7% respectively [4] - The implementation of zero-tariff policies for certain products from least developed countries is expected to further enhance import volumes [4][5]