美元兑在岸人民币下跌逾0.7%，报7.22。 ...

美元兑在岸人民币下跌逾0.7%，报7.2196。 ...

Currency Exchange Rates - The three major RMB exchange rate indices all declined in the week of April 30, with the CFETS RMB index at 96.20, down 0.09% week-on-week; the BIS currency basket RMB index at 102.09, down 0.16%; and the SDR currency basket RMB index at 90.44, down 0.03% [1][2] RMB Performance - On April 30, the onshore RMB closed at 7.2633 against the USD, appreciating by 199 basis points or 0.27% for the week; the offshore RMB closed at 7.2113, appreciating by 776 basis points or 1.06% for the week [5] - The appreciation of the RMB reflects increased market demand and the impact of USD index fluctuations, as the weakening US economic recovery reduces the dollar's attractiveness [5] Economic Indicators - In April, the onshore RMB depreciated approximately 0.2%, while the CFETS index fell about 2.8%, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up by 0.32% [5] - The RMB's future performance is expected to be influenced by the direction of the USD index and trade policies, with a moderate strengthening outlook [6] Trade Relations - Recent responses from the Ministry of Commerce regarding Sino-US trade dialogue suggest a softening stance from the US on tariffs, which has contributed to the recent strength of the offshore RMB [6] - The upcoming RMB exchange rate movements will depend on the progress of Sino-US trade negotiations and the USD's performance, with potential for volatility [6] Consumer Market Trends - During the "May Day" holiday, key retail and catering enterprises reported a 6.3% year-on-year increase in sales, with significant growth in sales of home appliances, automobiles, and communication equipment [7] - The transportation sector saw a cumulative flow of 1.467 billion people during the holiday period, reflecting an 8.0% year-on-year increase [7] Automotive Industry - New energy vehicle manufacturers reported significant growth in April deliveries, with NIO delivering 23,900 vehicles (up 53%), XPeng 35,045 vehicles (up 273%), and Li Auto 33,939 vehicles (up 31.6%) [9] Economic Policy Developments - The National Development and Reform Commission announced measures to stabilize employment and promote high-quality economic development, including the establishment of a childcare subsidy system and support for service consumption and the elderly care industry [8]

廖市无双：节后市场能否走出主升浪？20250505 摘要 • 上证指数在 3,140-3,500 点区间震荡，中枢约 3,330-3,340 点，清明节 后下翻修复，上方套牢盘集中在 3,300 点以上，反弹阻力逐渐增大，形成 楔形形态，补缺口难度增加。关注外部利好能否加速突破，否则可能转折 向下。 • 节前三个交易日市场窄幅震荡，上证 50 微跌，成长指数反弹。上证 50 已 补缺口并超涨，蓝筹股指数未能表达趋势性变化，区间震荡偏空。恒生科 技指数压力位对应跳空缺口上沿，受中美贸易紧张局势影响，存在抛售压 力，预计 4 月 27 日前仍区间震荡。 • 未来市场走势以区间震荡为主，支撑位在跳空缺口下沿，压力位在跳空缺 口上沿（约 3,350-3,340 点）。中证 500、1,000 和国证 2000 震荡反映 市场交易心理，投资者认为"有缺必补"，且前期风险偏好低，集中在自 主可控、内需板块，风险偏好回升后，这些板块成为补涨主战场。 • 市场风险偏好提高，成长风格优于价值风格。上证 50 已补缺，中证 1,000、国证 2000 仍有较大缺口。前期受压制的 AI、机器人等题材开始 表现强劲，资金转向需要补涨 ...

Core Viewpoint - The onshore RMB against the US dollar opened at 7.2345, an increase of nearly 290 points compared to the closing price on April 30, following a significant rise in the offshore RMB during the holiday period [1] Group 1 - The onshore RMB's opening rate reflects a strong performance, indicating positive market sentiment [1] - The increase of nearly 290 points suggests a notable appreciation in the RMB's value against the US dollar [1] - The movement in the onshore RMB is closely linked to the trends observed in the offshore RMB market during the holiday [1]

Core Viewpoint - The market is expected to enter a recovery phase after the holiday, with a positive outlook for the consumer sector due to strong consumption data during the holiday period [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index showed relative weakness in the last three trading days before the holiday, while the Shenzhen Composite and ChiNext indices demonstrated resilience, particularly with a mild increase in the Shenzhen index on the last trading day [1]. - Despite some panic selling in individual stocks following earnings disclosures, the overall market performance aligned with expectations [1]. Consumer Sector Insights - Strong consumption data during the holiday, including record highs in tourism-related metrics, indicates that consumers remain willing to spend, which is favorable for the consumer sector [2]. - Investors are advised to differentiate between long-term overhyped sectors and individual stocks to avoid chasing high prices [2]. Investment Strategy - Investors are encouraged not to overly worry about the current market conditions but to focus on individual stock performance, as a broad market rally is unlikely to be sustained [2]. - It is recommended to observe the market on the first trading day after the holiday and wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions [2]. Risk Awareness - There is a growing concern regarding delisting risks, with approximately 60 stocks facing such risks this year, surpassing the total from the previous year [1]. - Investors should avoid stocks with poor performance or delisting risks, particularly those categorized as "black five categories" [1].

Core Viewpoint - The offshore RMB has shown strong performance during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative increase of 687 basis points to 7.2011 against the USD, indicating a potential upward adjustment for the onshore RMB post-holiday [1][2]. Group 1: Factors Influencing RMB Performance - Four main reasons are identified for the recent strength of the offshore RMB: 1. Record high travel data during the May Day holiday may inject more economic growth momentum 2. Positive signals from Sino-U.S. trade negotiations during the holiday 3. Increased allocation of risk-averse funds into RMB assets 4. A declining trend in the USD index, leading to a gradual release of settlement demand [4][5]. Group 2: Sino-U.S. Trade Negotiations - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted that the U.S. has expressed willingness to negotiate on tariff issues, suggesting a softening stance that could facilitate trade dialogue and address high tariffs, contributing to the RMB's recent strength [4][5]. - Analysts expect that the RMB's future performance will largely depend on the progress of Sino-U.S. trade talks and the movement of the USD [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The offshore RMB market experienced lower trading activity during the holiday, which may have amplified the rise in the RMB due to short-covering by overseas institutions [4]. - The overall sentiment in the foreign exchange market has improved due to favorable news from Sino-U.S. negotiations, leading to a potential decrease in tariff pressure on the RMB [5][6]. Group 4: Broader Currency Trends - Other Asian currencies, including the Hong Kong dollar and New Taiwan dollar, have also appreciated against the USD, indicating a regional trend of currency strengthening [7][8]. - Market expectations suggest that the USD may continue to weaken, influenced by the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate decisions and ongoing trade dynamics [9].

2025年5月6日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.2008，下调（人民币升值）6点； 欧元/人民币报8.1535，下调715点； 港元/人民币报0.92903，上调9点； 英镑/人民币报9.5808，下调1059点； 澳元/人民币报4.6617，上调440点； 加元/人民币报5.2202，下调96点； 100日元/人民币报5.0269，下调603点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1706，下调1127点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3034，上调38点； 人民币/林吉特报0.58306，下调153.1点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.7664，上调24点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.5872，上调653点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The offshore Chinese yuan (CNH) against the US dollar showed a significant appreciation, closing at 7.2011, marking a rise of 119 points from the previous Friday's close, continuing the upward trend from last week [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Currency Performance** - The CNH traded within a range of 7.2199 to 7.1845 during the day [1] - The currency approached a peak of 7.1457, which is expected to be reached on November 8, 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The offshore RMB to USD exchange rate surpassed the 7.20 mark, reaching a new high since December 2024, supported by stable macroeconomic conditions and policy measures to prevent excessive exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The onshore RMB is expected to experience a rebound following the recent trends in the offshore market, with predictions of a potential increase in the exchange rate [1] - The recent decline in the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a weakening of the dollar, further supporting the RMB's strength [1] Group 2 - Experts believe that the foundation for maintaining a stable RMB exchange rate remains solid, driven by domestic economic recovery, increased confidence, and effective governance mechanisms [2] - The Chinese economy's large market size, complete industrial system, and rich human resources contribute positively to the stability of the RMB [2] - The pressure for RMB depreciation may have peaked, with expectations of a dual-directional fluctuation process in the exchange rate, albeit with smaller amplitude [3] Group 3 - The resilience of China's foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing its ability to withstand external shocks, with ongoing monitoring and management of foreign exchange conditions [3] - Authorities are expected to continue strengthening foreign exchange monitoring and maintain exchange rate flexibility while enriching macro-prudential management tools for cross-border capital flows [3]