Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the consumer and manufacturing sectors, while expressing optimism for technology and financial sectors [4]. Core Insights - The global economy is expected to show a convergence in economic momentum between the US and non-US regions, driven by a slowdown in the US economy [2]. - The report highlights that while the overall performance in Q1 2025 was strong, future concerns include tariff impacts, growth slowdowns, and high funding costs affecting corporate profitability [2]. - Emerging markets are seen as having marginally favorable conditions due to a weaker dollar, looser monetary policies, and relatively low valuations, although high-interest environments may constrain absolute performance [3]. Regional Outlook - The report is optimistic about opportunities in non-US regions, particularly Europe, while suggesting a balanced allocation strategy due to expected regional performance differentiation being less pronounced than in the first half of the year [3]. - In Europe, recent policy shifts are expected to support internal risk appetite recovery, despite trade uncertainties [3]. - Japan's market outlook is cautious due to weak local policies and economic growth, although structural opportunities remain as the country emerges from deflation [3]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates a preference for technology sectors (communication, software, advertising) and industrial sectors (power equipment, automation) for the second half of 2025, while maintaining caution towards consumer sectors and commodities [4]. - The technology sector, excluding electronics, and financial sectors are expected to outperform, while consumer and upstream materials are relatively weaker [4]. - The report notes that companies in the consumer, financial, and localized services sectors are less affected by tariffs, while manufacturing and bulk materials face significant impacts [4].

明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡里表示，预计今年美联储将进行两次降息，首次降息可能在9月进行，但 警告关税对通胀的影响可能存在滞后性，政策制定者应保持灵活性。 卡什卡里对 4 月超出预期的关税公告后经济展现出的韧性表示称赞，并称劳动力市场 "温和降温"。他 说道： 与他交流的企业高管们不愿将关税成本转嫁给客户，但如果贸易协议未能达成且关税保持高 位，他们可能不得不这么做，从亚洲向美国运输货物所需时间是关税影响可能延迟显现的又 一原因。 上周，美联储官员们在货币政策会议上维持利率不变。自那之后，美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼已暗示，他们 可能会支持最早于下月开始降息。不过，包括卡什卡里在内的本周多数发表言论的政策制定者都明确表 示，7 月降息尚未被纳入实质性考虑范围。 特朗普也曾多次抨击美联储主席鲍威尔及美联储维持利率稳定的做法。 周五，卡什卡里在明尼阿波利斯联邦储备银行网站发布的文章中表示： 在收集更多关税冲击经济的真实证据时，美联储应更加关注实际通胀和经济数据，而不是提 前承诺扩大政策路径。 自12月以来，卡什卡里一直未曾改变2025年的利率预期。当时，美联储政策制定者在全年进行了累计一 个百分点的降息，其中全部降息操作集 ...

卡什卡里表示，"这些矛盾信号让我维持2025年剩余时间内两次降息的预期，意味着首次降息可能在9 月，除非届时出现意外情况。"他补充道："如果我们在9月降息，而关税影响在今秋显现，我认为不应 预设宽松路径，而应根据新数据调整政策。" 卡什卡里称，尽管企业可能不愿因涨价激怒消费者，但在缺乏贸易协议降低关税的情况下，它们将开始 转嫁成本。在这种情形下，关税对通胀的影响可能比预期来得更晚。 与此同时，他提到目前经济数据显示"关税对价格、经济活动或劳动力市场的影响尚显温和"，而通胀正 朝着美联储2%的目标再度迈进。这可能表明企业已获得关税豁免、调整了供应链路线，或通过其他方 式完全规避关税，从而限制了对通胀的冲击。 智通财经APP获悉，明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡里(Neel Kashkari)坚持其观点，认为通胀降温将 使美联储能够在今年启动两次降息，首次降息可能始于9月。在周五发布的一篇文章中，卡什卡里同时 指出，如果通胀治理进展停滞或逆转，美联储可能暂停降息周期，直至物价再次回落。他表示，关税可 能"即将推高"通胀，因为更多来自亚洲、面临最大幅度关税上调的商品正陆续进入美国企业货架。 "如果数据需要，我们可以 ...

美联储卡什卡利：如果美联储在九月降息，而关税影响随后显现，可能会暂停降息措施。 ...

柯林斯表示，她的基本预期是在今年晚些时候开始降息。"这可能意味着一次降息，也可能不止一次， 但我认为我们需要依据数据来判断。我没有看到降息的紧迫性。" 周四，多位美联储官员讲话，他们明确表示，需要再观察几个月，才能确认由关税引发的物价上涨不会 以持续性方式推高通胀，他们尚未准备在下次会议上支持降息。 近日，特朗普在其美国总统第一任期内任命的两位美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼的讲话引起关注。他们均表 示，如果通胀保持受控，他们愿意在美联储7月29-30日会议上就开始降息。 然而，自那以后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储主席威廉姆斯和旧金山联储主席戴利在内的约十位 美联储政策制定者纷纷对这一观点泼了冷水。 多位官员表示可以再等等 戴利在周四接受媒体采访时承认，越来越多的证据显示关税可能不会引发大规模或持续性的通胀上升。 但这只是让她对秋季降息持开放态度。戴利表示：" 我一直的主要预期是，我们将在秋季开始调整利 率，这一观点并未改变。" 今年以来，价格增长速度低于预期，美联储偏好的通胀指标在4月同比上涨2.1%，略高于2%的目标。 周四早些时候公布的数据还显示，持续申请失业救济人数升至2021年11月以来最高，过去六周明显上 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices are approaching historical highs, with significant gains observed in major tech stocks such as Netflix, Meta, Amazon, Microsoft, and Google [1][2] - Nvidia's stock reached a new all-time high, driven by rapid growth in its DGX Cloud service, with UBS analysts projecting annual revenue could exceed $10 billion [2] Group 2: Federal Reserve Commentary - Multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated they are not prepared to support interest rate cuts in the upcoming July meeting, emphasizing the need for more data to assess inflation risks [3][4] - San Francisco Fed President Daly and Boston Fed President Collins both expressed that rate adjustments may not occur until later in the year, highlighting the importance of economic data in decision-making [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy contracted for the first time in three years, with Q1 GDP reported at -0.5%, reversing a previous growth of 2.4% in Q4 2024 [4] - Consumer spending growth in Q1 was only 0.5%, marking the slowest pace in over four years, while federal government spending fell at an annualized rate of 4.6%, the largest decline since 2022 [4] - Unemployment claims rose to 1.974 million, the highest level since November 2021, indicating significant pressure on the U.S. job market due to tariff impacts [4][5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global economic outlook, particularly focusing on trade relations, fiscal policies, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the second half of 2025 [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Expectations**: There is an expectation that trade relations will ease in the second half of 2025, leading to a recovery in risk assets and an overall improvement in the global economic landscape [1][4]. - **Trade War Dynamics**: The intervention of the judiciary is seen as a turning point, signaling the end of the intense phase of the trade war, which may accelerate trade negotiations between the Trump administration and other countries [4][5]. - **Key Contradictions**: The market will face three main contradictions: the outlook on tariffs, the lagging impact of tariffs on the economy, and interpretations of the Federal Reserve and fiscal policies [2][14]. - **Federal Reserve Actions**: The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative stance, including potential interest rate cuts and halting quantitative tightening, to support the economy [10][14]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Tariff Impact**: Current tariff rates are significantly higher than those in 2018-2019, raising concerns about their negative impact on the economy, which may manifest more clearly in the third quarter of 2025 [7][8]. - **Fiscal Concerns**: While there are ongoing worries about the U.S. fiscal deficit, the actual situation may not be as dire as anticipated, particularly as some deficit components are due to previous tax cuts rather than new spending [11][12]. - **Asset Allocation Recommendations**: It is suggested to overweight equities and commodities in the second half of 2025, as the market is likely to shift towards expectations of economic recovery [15]. Additional Insights - **Gold Performance**: The outlook for gold is less favorable, with expectations of a 10% to 20% pullback due to high current prices and reduced geopolitical tensions [16][17]. - **Currency Trends**: In the context of a global economic recovery, the U.S. dollar is expected to weaken, while the Chinese yuan may remain stable or appreciate, benefiting Chinese assets [18].

他通过引用一家大型零售商的说法，对关税影响可能显现的时间提供了洞见："为了解4月和5月大幅加 征关税的影响，他建议我们等着看7月和8月的价格。" 不过他明确表示，不认为关税对通胀的影响会接近近年所见的价格飙升，因为消费者可能会抵制价格上 涨。他补充称，这种抵制可能导致裁员。"如果企业提价后销量下滑，就需要降低成本;如果因无法提价 而失去利润，同样需要降低成本，"他说，"无论哪种情况，成本削减可能都意味着裁员，这表明当前低 招聘、低解雇的环境可能面临威胁。" 巴尔金周四在为纽约商业经济协会(New York Association for Business Economics)主办活动准备的讲稿中 表示，"过快地朝任何一个方向行动几乎没有好处，""鉴于当前经济的强劲态势，我们有时间耐心跟踪 事态发展，让前景变得更清晰。" 美联储官员普遍表示，倾向于等待观察关税及其他政策对通胀和整体经济的影响后再调整利率。不过， 委员会内部存在明显分歧，两位美联储理事克里斯托弗.沃勒(Christopher Waller)和米歇尔.鲍曼(Michelle Bowman)称，他们可能支持最早在7月降息。 巴尔金提到，企业联系人表示 ...

美联储柯林斯：今年晚些时候可能降息 但取决于关税影响 金十数据6月25日讯，波士顿联储主席柯林斯周三表示，她预计美联储将在今年晚些时候降息。柯林斯 在该行发布的一份声明中表示："虽然我仍然预计今年晚些时候恢复逐步的政策正常化是合适的，但随 着事态的发展，我的前景可能会发生重大变化，各种政府政策变化对经济的影响变得更加突出。""这在 很大程度上取决于关税带来的'价格冲击'能否迅速消散。" ...

鲍威尔：在遭受关税因素影响之外的领域，美国通胀形势实际上是良好的。 预计6-8月份将看到实质性的关税影响。 ...