Core Viewpoint - The European Union warns that even baseline tariffs imposed by Trump will provoke retaliatory measures from the EU [1] Group 1 - The EU's response to potential tariffs indicates a readiness to engage in trade disputes [1] - The warning reflects ongoing tensions between the EU and the U.S. regarding trade policies [1] - The situation highlights the potential for escalating trade conflicts that could impact global markets [1]

美元指数跌超0.6%，报97.70，创6月16日以来新高。 欧元兑美元上涨0.5%，刷新2021年10月份以来最高位至1.1641。 ...

Group 1 - The potential non-farm employment growth in the U.S. is expected to decline significantly from over 100,000 jobs per month to less than 10,000 by the end of next year, leading to a reduction in the potential economic growth rate from slightly above 2% to 1.4-1.6% [1] - The average monthly job creation in the private sector over the past two years has been approximately 172,000, indicating a stark contrast with the anticipated future potential growth [1] - The Bank of Japan's bond purchase plan lacks long-term guidance, creating ongoing market uncertainty regarding the scale of bond purchases post-April 2027 [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's economic projections reveal the highest level of divergence in interest rate paths for 2025 in the past decade, with a median expectation of two rate cuts (50 basis points) but a range from no cuts to a 75 basis point reduction [2] - The disparity between the most common and second most common predictions for interest rate changes has reached 50 basis points, the largest difference in ten years, indicating fundamental disagreements among policymakers on balancing inflation control and economic growth [2] - Despite downgrades in the U.S. credit rating by major agencies, foreign investment in U.S. Treasury bonds remains strong due to the lack of reliable alternatives and the relatively high yields offered [2] Group 3 - Key factors influencing the global market include the potential for tariff agreements among countries, fluctuations in the dollar's exchange rate, and rising risks associated with the U.S. deficit [3] - There is an expectation that major countries may reach partial consensus on tariff issues and extend grace periods while implementing specific industry tariff measures [3] - The U.S. deficit risk is anticipated to rise, which may keep U.S. Treasury yields between 4% and 5% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Eurozone's economic data shows signs of weakness, yet the market's reaction remains limited, with the Euro experiencing a rebound after a gap down [1][4]. Economic Data Summary - The June HCOB Composite PMI for the Eurozone is at 50.2, unchanged from the previous month but below the market expectation of 50.5, indicating persistent weak economic growth [3]. - The Services PMI for June is reported at 50.0, up from 49.7 in May, suggesting a return to stability after a brief contraction, although growth has slowed to a three-month low [3]. - Manufacturing PMI remains in contraction at 49.4, with new orders showing the smallest decline in 13 months, marking the end of a three-year decline in new orders [3]. Manufacturing and Employment Insights - Eurozone manufacturers are still reducing procurement activities, but the pace is the slowest in three years, with an acceleration in job cuts compared to May [4]. - Input costs in manufacturing have decreased for three consecutive months, while output prices have been lowered for the second time [4]. Market Reactions and Technical Analysis - The Euro's rebound is supported by short covering and dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which have raised expectations for interest rate cuts [4]. - The Euro is currently in an upward channel since March, facing significant resistance around 1.1630, with key support at 1.1412 [5]. - Technical indicators suggest a short-term bearish structure for the Euro against the Dollar, with critical support levels at 1.14-1.1380 [6].

智通财经6月24日电，英镑兑美元日内涨幅扩大至0.5%，现报1.3592。 ...

韩元兑美元盘中一度涨1.6%，创一个月最大涨幅。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Australian dollar (AUD) has appreciated by 0.63% against the US dollar (USD), reaching a peak of 0.65 during the trading session [1] Group 1 - The AUD/USD exchange rate shows a positive movement, indicating a strengthening of the Australian dollar [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD pair continues its upward trend after opening today, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market [1] - The 4H indicator in the monitoring tool suggests that the GBP/USD may face strong resistance in the range of 1.3563-1.3573 [1] - There is an accumulation of sell orders above 1.3573, indicating potential selling pressure at this resistance level [1]

新台币兑美元涨幅扩大至0.6%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central point of the article is the adjustment of the Chinese yuan's central parity rate against the US dollar, which has increased by 54 points to 7.1656 [1]. Group 1 - The yuan's central parity rate is determined by the China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which conducts inquiries among market makers before the opening of the interbank foreign exchange market [1]. - The calculation of the yuan's central parity rate involves removing the highest and lowest quotes from the market makers' submissions and then taking a weighted average of the remaining quotes [1]. - The yuan's central parity rate serves as a crucial reference for spot interbank foreign exchange trading and the bank's quoted exchange rates [1].