Core Viewpoint - The dollar index is experiencing a decline due to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, alongside mixed economic indicators from the US and Europe [1][5][6]. Economic Indicators - US retail sales for August increased by 0.6% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.2% [3]. - Retail sales excluding automobiles rose by 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding the forecast of 0.4% [3]. - The US manufacturing production unexpectedly rose by 0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a 0.2% decline [3]. - The NAHB housing market index for September remained unchanged at a 2.75-year low of 32, which was below the expected increase to 33 [4]. Federal Reserve Expectations - The market is pricing in a 100% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with an 84% chance of a second 25 basis point cut at the next meeting on October 28-29 [5]. - Overall, the market anticipates a total reduction of 69 basis points in the federal funds rate by year-end, bringing it down to 3.64% from the current 4.33% [5]. Currency Movements - The euro is appreciating against the dollar, up by 0.69% and reaching a 4-year high, driven by dollar weakness and central bank divergence [6]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is perceived to be nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle, contrasting with the Fed's expected rate cuts [6]. Eurozone Economic News - Eurozone Q2 labor costs increased from Q1, indicating rising costs in the region [7]. - The German ZEW survey for September showed unexpected improvement in economic growth expectations [7]. - However, Eurozone industrial production for July rose less than anticipated, indicating mixed economic performance [7].

Group 1: Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico Joint Venture - Delta Air Lines and Aeromexico are required to terminate their joint venture by January 1, 2026, due to anticompetitive concerns in the U.S.–Mexico City air travel market [2][3] - The Department of Transportation's final order cites that the joint venture has provided both airlines with an unfair advantage over competitors, which Delta claims will harm U.S. jobs and consumers [3][4] - The partnership, established nearly a decade ago, allowed the airlines to coordinate schedules and pricing strategies under antitrust immunity [3][4] Group 2: Federal Reserve Board Appointment - Stephen Miran has been confirmed as a Federal Reserve governor, filling a seat previously held by Adriana Kugler [5][6] - His confirmation was narrowly approved by a Senate vote of 48-47, raising concerns about potential political interference in the Fed [6][7] - Miran's appointment comes as the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points during its upcoming policy meeting [5][6] Group 3: Disney and Webtoon Partnership - Disney is partnering with Webtoon Entertainment to create a digital platform for its comics, acquiring a 2% equity stake in Webtoon [9][10] - The new platform will feature over 35,000 Disney comics, including titles from Marvel and Star Wars, and will be available to Disney+ subscribers [10][11] - Webtoon will operate the service, which will include both vertical and traditional comic formats [11][12]

Has there ever been an interest rate cut with such a long, dramatic, scrutinized gestation period? No matter, Wall Street is already thinking, what have you done for me lately? The Federal Reserve reconvenes today for what may just be the most loaded, and consequential, central bank meeting in modern history. A quarter-point slash is now all but certain to be announced tomorrow — and indeed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has hinted as much since the group’s last meeting in July. But is the seemingly never-end ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's latest decision maintains interest rates but signals a clear dovish stance, with expectations for one rate cut in 2024 and four in 2025 [1] - The acknowledgment of progress in inflation control is a significant development, with the statement indicating that "inflation has eased" [1] - The reduction in the pace of balance sheet reduction from $60 billion to $25 billion per month starting in June is a notable change [1] Group 2 - The immediate market reaction included a 0.8% drop in the dollar index, reaching a one-month low, and a rise in gold prices, stabilizing above $2340 per ounce [1] - The downward trend in real interest rates is established, enhancing the attractiveness of gold as rates decline [2] - The weakening dollar, due to the narrowing policy gap between the Federal Reserve and other major central banks, makes gold cheaper and stimulates global demand [2] Group 3 - The acknowledgment of inflation resilience by the Federal Reserve may lead to increased focus on gold's anti-inflation properties [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is at a critical decision point, with initial support at $2320 and strong support at $2280 [2] - Key resistance levels are identified at $2380 and $2430, with current prices fluctuating around $2340 [2] Group 4 - Future factors influencing gold prices include upcoming U.S. inflation data, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchasing trends [2] - Investment strategies suggest short-term traders focus on the $2320-$2380 range, while long-term investors should consider buying on dips to $2280-$2300 [2] - Conservative investors are advised to wait for price corrections to the $2250-$2280 range before making purchases [2]

Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Talks - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are engaged in trade and economic discussions in Madrid, Spain [1] - U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that the U.S.-China trade negotiations are progressing well, which has influenced market expectations [2] - A "framework" deal regarding the divestment of Chinese-owned TikTok was announced, with commercial specifics already settled [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - European stocks showed mixed signals ahead of the market open, with the U.K.'s FTSE and Germany's DAX expected to open slightly higher, while France's CAC 40 and Italy's FTSE MIB are projected to open lower [2] - Japan's Nikkei 225 index surpassed the 45,000 mark for the first time, indicating strong performance in the Asia-Pacific markets [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - In the U.S., S&P 500 futures remained flat as the Senate confirmed Trump's Federal Reserve pick, Stephen Miran, ahead of a central bank meeting on interest rates [5] - Upcoming European economic data includes U.K. unemployment figures, Italian inflation, EU industrial production data, and German economic sentiment readings [5]

Wall Street Braces for Wednesday’s FOMC MeetingWall Street investors are currently bracing for one of the most highly anticipated, yet uncertain, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings/decisions in a very long time. Several story lines make this FOMC meeting in particular interesting. First, President Trump and his administration have aggressively pressured Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates for months. Meanwhile, several cross-currents exist in this unique economy, includin ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Tesla's stock surged by 3.6% following CEO Elon Musk's $1 billion share purchase [1] - Alphabet's shares increased by 4.5%, allowing the company to join the $3 trillion market cap club [1] - The communication services sector rose by 2.3% and is up 27% year-to-date, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 12% gain [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - U.S. and global stocks reached new highs, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, Nikkei, and MSCI All Country hitting record levels [4] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of deterioration, with the unemployment rate and weekly jobless claims at their highest since 2021 [9] - Average monthly mortgage payments in the U.S. are nearly double pre-pandemic levels, contributing to housing market pressures [10] Group 3: China and Trade Relations - A framework agreement was reached to transition TikTok to U.S.-controlled ownership amid ongoing U.S.-China trade talks [3] - A preliminary investigation by Beijing found that Nvidia violated its anti-monopoly law, impacting the company's market position [2] Group 4: Housing Market Challenges - The U.S. housing market is facing a crisis with a record shortfall of 4.7 million housing units, limiting labor mobility and economic growth [13] - High mortgage rates and soaring rents are exacerbating the housing crisis, leading to concerns about consumer spending and corporate profits [11][12] - Investment in the housing sector could create up to 1.7 million jobs and add nearly $2 trillion in cumulative GDP through 2035 [17]

`` By Michael S. Derby `` `` (Reuters) - James Bullard, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, said Monday he’d spoken last week with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent about becoming central bank chair, and that he’s very interested in the job under the right set of conditions. `` `` “I talked to the Treasury secretary last Wednesday and his team” about the top Fed position as well as other issues, Bullard said in an interview with Reuters. Bullard, who is now Dean of the Mitch Daniel ...

Nigeria’s naira hit a near seven-month high boosted by stronger oil export earnings and foreign demand for the high yields offered by the local debt market ahead of possible interest rate cut next week https://t.co/Th2zSGNhuY ...

Monetary Policy and Federal Reserve Actions - The U.S. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to cut rates for the first time in 2025, following a total reduction of 100 basis points in the last three meetings of 2024 [1] - A 25 basis point cut is virtually guaranteed, with a possibility of increasing to 50 basis points, which would set rates between 3.75% and 4.00% for the first time in nearly three years [3] - The labor market is weakening, with a loss of 13,000 jobs in June, while inflation is slowly rising, influenced by tariff policies [2] Political Influences on the Federal Reserve - The politicization of the Fed is complicating monetary policy decisions, with President Trump criticizing Fed Chair Jerome Powell for being slow to reduce rates [4] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook was fired by Trump amid accusations of personal financial wrongdoing, but a federal judge reversed this decision, leading to ongoing legal disputes [4][5] - The Senate is set to vote on confirming Stephen Miran, a pro-Trump official, to the FOMC, who has previously advocated for a 300 basis point rate cut [5] Manufacturing Sector Performance - The Empire State Manufacturing Index reported a negative reading of -8.7 for September, significantly below the expected +4.5 and a decline from August's 11.9 [7] - This negative trend is consistent with the past year, where seven out of twelve months showed negative growth in New York State manufacturing [8] - The upcoming Philly Fed survey is anticipated, which has also shown negative headlines in four of the past five months [8]