Core Insights - The U.S. economy in 2025 is characterized by GDP growth despite rising inflation and unemployment [4] - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions are crucial for economic growth or contraction, influenced by its dual mandate [5] - Goldman Sachs is recognized for its insights into economic trends, particularly regarding the U.S. economy's outlook for 2026 [3] Economic Conditions - The Federal Reserve cut rates three times in 2024 but maintained them until September 2025 due to inflation concerns stemming from tariff strategies [5][6] - Unemployment rose to 4.6% in November 2025, up from 4% in January of the same year [6] - Layoffs surged to 1.17 million through November 2025, representing a 54% increase from the same period in 2024 [8] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Open Market Committee, consisting of 12 rotating Fed officials, is responsible for rate adjustments based on conflicting economic goals [5] - Fed Chair Powell faced criticism for his hesitancy to lower rates earlier in 2025, which may lead to his replacement when his term expires in May [7][8] - The Fed's decisions are pivotal during a challenging economic period, with tariffs contributing to higher inflation [8]

Group 1 - Zhengzhou Development Investment Group has changed its name to Zhengzhou Industrial Investment Group, with a registered capital increase from 1 billion to 30 billion yuan, funded by the Zhengzhou Finance Bureau [1] - The capital increase will be fully paid by December 25, 2030, and will not affect the controlling shareholder or actual controller of the company [1] Group 2 - The bond market in 2025 faced challenges and opportunities, moving away from a "lying win" phase to a period of high volatility [2] - Key trends included the establishment of a debt management office, the introduction of innovative bond products, and the acceleration of debt resolution for real estate companies [2] Group 3 - On December 29, national bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.91% to 111.82 yuan [4] - Major interest rates for bonds in the interbank market rose, with the 30-year national bond yield increasing by 3.65 basis points to 2.255% [4] Group 4 - The central bank conducted a 4,823 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net injection of 4,150 billion yuan [5] - Short-term Shibor rates mostly rose, with the overnight rate down 1.0 basis point to 1.248%, the lowest since August 2023 [5] Group 5 - Luoyang Urban Construction Investment Group plans to issue up to 1.2 billion yuan in corporate bonds [5] - Xinxiang State-owned Capital Operation Group's bond issuance project received feedback from the Shanghai Stock Exchange, with a planned issuance of 2 billion yuan [7] Group 6 - China’s bond market outlook for 2026 is mixed, with expectations of continued volatility and potential investment opportunities in high-grade credit bonds and convertible bonds [10][11] - Analysts suggest that if inflation does not rise as expected, there may be a need for looser monetary policy, which could lead to a correction in pessimistic expectations for the bond market [13]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook for 2026 is under significant scrutiny, especially with a new Chair expected and ongoing debates about the decision-making process [2] - The concept of "silent dissenters" has emerged, indicating that while only two dissenters publicly opposed a rate cut, six members, including four silent dissenters, indicated they would not support a cut in the dot-plot projections [4][7] - The composition of the FOMC in 2026 will include regional bank presidents who have expressed caution regarding further rate cuts, suggesting a more conservative approach to monetary policy [6][7] Summary by Sections - **Monetary Policy Outlook**: The Fed's monetary policy is gaining attention as it approaches 2026, with discussions about the decision-making process and the implications of having a new Chair [2] - **Silent Dissenters**: The term "silent dissenters" refers to Fed members who privately oppose rate cuts. In the recent dot-plot, six members indicated they would not support a cut, highlighting a division within the Fed [4][7] - **FOMC Composition for 2026**: The FOMC will see a rotation of regional bank presidents, including those from Cleveland, Philadelphia, Dallas, and Minneapolis, who have publicly stated their opposition to further rate cuts [5][6] - **Data-Dependent Policy**: Future monetary policy decisions are now entirely data-dependent, with Powell's term ending in May 2026, indicating potential volatility in rate expectations [7][8]

Economic Outlook - The Heritage Foundation's chief economist predicts growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing favorable tax and regulatory reforms as key drivers [1][2][3] - The economist expresses optimism about the potential for a market rally if unemployment remains stable and economic stimulus is effective [4] Monetary Policy Risks - Concerns are raised regarding Federal Reserve policy, particularly if current chair Jerome Powell continues to make mistakes in managing interest rates and the balance sheet [5][6] - The selection of the next Fed chair is deemed crucial, with potential candidates favoring rate cuts in 2026, which could positively impact the economy [6][7] Housing Affordability - A study indicates that over 75% of homes in the U.S. are now unaffordable for typical households, defined as spending more than 30% of income on housing [10][12] - The current high home prices relative to median household income are highlighted as a significant barrier to affordability, regardless of interest rates [11][12] - The discussion includes the impact of illegal immigration on housing demand and supply, suggesting that reducing illegal immigration could alleviate some housing pressures [13][14]

First Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan India: Are rate cuts over? The December MPC meeting minutes show that ultra-low inflation was the trigger for the rate cut, while advocating data dependence ahead. Downside surprise on inflation led to the December cut In the December meeting, the RBI materially cut its FY26 (year ending March) inflation forecast to 2.0% from 2.6%, with the one-year ahead forecast lowered by around 50bp to 4.0% (at the RBI's target). With concurrent inflation ...

JPY Weekly Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange - Global The highest policy rate in three decades, but JPY weakness continues Key events next week: MOF's intervention risk, Ueda's speech, Tokyo CPI. The highest policy rate since 1995 At its December Monetary Policy Meeting, the BOJ hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 0.75%. As a result, the BOJ's policy rate is now at the highest level since August 1995 ( Fig. 1 ). While this hike was widely expected by the market (including Nomura), JGBs were sold across ...

Joe, always good to see you. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Thank you.Very good to be with you, Jennifer. Happy holidays. >> Happy holidays to you.And what a way to kick off the holidays with such a stellar third quarter GDP number up 4.3% a full percentage point above expectations and driven by consumer spending up three and a half% though a large chunk of that from healthcare spending. Though we also saw trade really add to this number as well. Joe, can we see this level of growth sustained into next y ...

Labor Market Analysis - Central bankers are potentially ready to act on weaknesses in the US labor market [1] - Industry should be cautious of repeating past errors [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday following a higher close on Monday, with major benchmark indices advancing [1] - Investors are awaiting economic data, including delayed reports on third-quarter GDP and durable goods, as well as updates on industrial production and consumer confidence [1][11] - Trading will be closed on Thursday, with an abbreviated session on Wednesday [1] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.50% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 80.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged [2] Stock Performance - Major indices showed slight gains: Dow Jones up 0.04%, S&P 500 up 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.11%, and Russell 2000 up 0.02% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) increased by 0.10% to $685.52, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose by 0.15% to $620.15 [2] Stocks in Focus - Parsons Corp. (NYSE:PSN) jumped 6.16% after winning a contract under the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program [4] - XMax Inc. (NASDAQ:XWIN) shares fell 4.45% after filing for a public offering of 1.1875 million shares at $4.21 each [4] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (NYSE:ZIM) rose 7.29% after receiving acquisition proposals and is evaluating offers [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:DJT) increased by 1.80% after purchasing over $40 million in Bitcoin [4] Economic Insights - LPL Research anticipates a generally positive outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market in 2026, with a modest slowdown expected early in the year before a rebound [8] - The bull market is expected to extend, driven by AI investment and easing monetary policy, with a year-end S&P 500 target range of 7,300–7,400 [9] Strategic Recommendations - LPL's committee maintains a tactical neutral stance on equities, advising investors to prepare for volatility while favoring growth style over value [10]

Group 1 - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to perform well next year due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts and pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Stubborn inflation may lead policymakers to maintain tighter monetary conditions for a longer period, which could favor certain sectors [1] Group 2 - The analyst has extensive experience in investment research, covering publicly listed securities primarily in the tech sector [1] - The analyst's investment journey began with mutual funds and evolved to individual stocks and ETFs, emphasizing a focus on capital preservation strategies [1]