(Bloomberg) — Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said interest rates remain modestly restrictive after last month’s quarter-point cut, and that policymakers will watch for increasing weakness in the labor market. “I think a little more will be be needed over time to get that interest rate where it’s balancing out those two risks,” she said Thursday at the reserve bank’s Western Bankers Forum in Utah, referring to threats to employment and inflation. “When that is going to happen is ...

Joining me now is the Wall Street Journal's chief economics correspondent, Nick Timmeros. It's great to have you back. Nice to see you.>> Thanks for having me, Scott. >> Seems like Mr. . Griffin is aligned with many on on the Fed right now.Maybe you'll get one. But there seems to be caution expressed by many of the Fed speakers we've heard this week, including today Austin Goulby said, quote, "I'm just a little uneasy with too much frontloading until we're sure that inflation is is coming down." >> Yeah, th ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve may not need to lower interest rates again soon, as inflation remains high and the labor market is still balanced despite some cooling [1][2]. Interest Rate Decisions - The recent 25-basis point cut in the policy rate was viewed as a reasonable risk-management strategy, with the current policy stance considered only "slightly restrictive" [2]. - Fed officials are divided on the number of additional rate cuts needed this year, with projections indicating a median expectation of two more quarter-point cuts, while many anticipate one or no cuts [3]. Labor Market and Inflation - A cooling labor market could help reduce price pressures, but recent data suggests an increased risk of a more sustained or abrupt economic slowdown [3]. - The Kansas City Fed chief emphasizes a data-dependent approach for future policy adjustments, closely monitoring inflation and labor market data [4]. Central Bank Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political interests is highlighted, as it is crucial for effective monetary policy and sound supervision and regulation [5]. - Independent supervisors can focus on long-term financial stability and respond agilely to instability, fostering public trust in the banking system [5].

Governor, welcome to the program, sir. We've got tons of time to talk about what's going to happen next. Your thoughts on the labor market, the balance of risk, the broader economy.I actually wanted to lead the conversation with this one. Governor, what was your experience like. I'm sure this was unexpected 12 months ago.What was it like walking into the room and was it different to what you expected. Good morning and thanks for having me. It's great to see you again.Look, you know, walking into the room, y ...

The Swiss National Bank said Thursday that tariffs on goods to the U.S. present a "major challenge" for exporters, with its economy set to take a hit.The country has swallowed some of the highest duties imposed by President Donald Trump's administration, with a 39% tariff rate implemented in August. It came after a Swiss delegation led by the country's President Karin Keller-Sutter failed to secure a trade deal after meeting with Trump in Washington D.C."The U.S. tariffs present a major challenge for affect ...

Inflation Concerns - Rapidly rising food costs are especially relevant for monetary policy [1] - Food costs could drive inflation expectations higher [1] Monetary Policy Implications - ECB is monitoring the impact of food costs on inflation [1]

Summary of Key Points from J.P. Morgan's Global Data Watch: Asia Industry or Company Involved - The report focuses on the economic outlook for Asia, particularly China and its domestic demand, as well as the broader implications for emerging markets in Asia. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Domestic Demand**: Domestic demand in China continues to underperform, leading to a reduction in the 3Q GDP growth forecast to 2.3% quarter-on-quarter annualized (q/q ar) from 3.0% [1] 2. **Impact of Trade-in Subsidies**: August retail sales have softened due to the fading impact of trade-in subsidies and weak consumer confidence [1] 3. **Industrial Production and Investment**: Industrial production has moderated, and fixed asset investment has collapsed, attributed to anti-involution policies, limited funding for infrastructure, and ongoing weakness in the housing market [1] 4. **Future Growth Projections**: Despite the current slowdown, average GDP growth on a year-on-year (o/y) basis is expected to remain at 5%, aligning with the full-year target, which reduces the urgency for immediate policy action [1] 5. **4Q Growth Expectations**: Sequential slowdowns are anticipated to drag down 4Q growth to 3.9% o/y, increasing pressures for more easing measures [2] 6. **Policy Easing Measures**: Expected easing measures include a tactical pause in anti-involution efforts, earlier monetary easing, and potential fiscal support through front-loading the 2026 budget or utilizing remaining debt ceiling limits [2] 7. **Export Trends in Asia**: The report notes a significant contraction in exports across several Asian countries, including a 9% sequential contraction in Singapore's non-oil domestic exports (NODX) in August, indicating a reversal from earlier growth [3] 8. **Japan's Export Performance**: Japan's real exports were nearly flat in August, with a notable 12% month-on-month (m/m) decline in exports to the US, influenced by tariff agreement timings [8] 9. **Taiwan's Resilience**: Taiwan's exports remain robust, driven by strong tech exports, with first-half growth reaching nearly 10% [9] 10. **Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination**: The report highlights the need for better coordination between fiscal and monetary policies in the region, as monetary easing has not sufficiently boosted domestic demand [10][11] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Political Discontent**: Sluggish domestic demand and employment issues have led to political discontent in several countries, prompting calls for more policy support [10] 2. **Indonesia's Monetary Policy**: Bank Indonesia has implemented consecutive rate cuts to support growth, reflecting a desire for fiscal-monetary coordination amidst political developments [10] 3. **Fiscal Stimulus in Other Countries**: Countries like Korea and India have announced fiscal stimulus measures, indicating a trend towards increased fiscal support in response to economic challenges [11] 4. **Long-term Growth Potential**: The report suggests that structural changes and fiscal consolidation could enhance Japan's medium- to long-term growth potential, despite current concerns over debt sustainability [30] This summary encapsulates the critical insights and projections regarding the economic landscape in Asia, particularly focusing on China, Japan, and the broader emerging markets.

Group 1 - The article discusses the bullish outlook on the stock market despite Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments on high valuations, suggesting that different perspectives on valuation exist [2][3] - The positive earnings outlook and favorable investment horizon are attributed to recent policy changes, including deregulation and tariffs, which may not be fully accounted for by Fed models [3] - Concerns are raised about the restrictive nature of current monetary policy, indicating that further adjustments are necessary to support interest rate-sensitive sectors and the labor market [4] Group 2 - The upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve will involve new members who may adopt a supply-side perspective, differing from the previous groupthink that has characterized the Fed [7] - The potential for a shift in monetary policy is highlighted, with a focus on the need for a more balanced approach rather than purely risk management techniques [5][6]

Trade Policy Developments - The U.S. administration has initiated investigations under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, targeting imports of robotics, industrial machinery, and medical devices, which could lead to new tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% [3][6] - Companies like Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) have acknowledged these tariffs as a "material risk" to their 2025 earnings, potentially impacting healthcare costs and global supply chains [3][6] Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly indicated that the U.S. economy still requires monetary support, with inflation moderate at around 2.4-2.5% excluding tariffs, while cautioning against further rate cuts [4][6] Housing Market Trends - KB Home (KBH) has revised its full-year 2025 revenue forecast downward to between $6.30 billion and $6.50 billion, citing a weaker-than-expected spring selling season and declining consumer confidence [5][6] Banking Sector Movements - Citigroup (C) has agreed to sell a 25% equity stake in its Mexican retail banking unit, Banamex, to local businessman Fernando Chico Pardo, marking progress in its divestiture strategy [7][6] Geopolitical Commentary - Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva emphasized the need for global cooperation and condemned the situation in Gaza, while also praising China's energy transition efforts [8][6]

🇺🇸 FED'S DALY: Further policy adjustments likely will be needed to support labor marketMore rate cuts incoming 📉 ...