India’s jobless rate remained steady at 5.6% for those aged 15 years and above in June, data from the Statistics Ministry shows https://t.co/HCtItdbMTL ...

Economic Growth and Consumer Confidence - Global economic growth remains uncertain, with high interest rates impacting households and businesses[11] - Overall consumer confidence has declined due to high consumer prices, with spending slowing down across most regions except Brazil[13][22] - The OECD global consumer confidence index shows a downward trend, indicating reduced consumer sentiment[20] Manufacturing and Services Sector - Manufacturing experienced its first contraction in 2024, while the services sector continues to show stable growth[14] - Manufacturing growth in China and the US has stagnated, with the Eurozone still in contraction[34] - The services sector remains a bright spot in the global economy, driven by industrial production growth and capital market improvements[45] Trade and Supply Chain - Global trade volume increased by 0.7% in June, primarily driven by growth in developed economies[50] - The global supply chain market is normalizing, with the pressure index reaching historical averages in July[51] - Total port trade in June 2024 decreased compared to June 2023, mainly due to reduced activity in Asian economies[69] Employment and Inflation - Unemployment rates in the US and China continued to rise in July, while Brazil's unemployment rate showed a declining trend[73] - Inflation in developed economies is easing, with the Eurozone facing deflationary pressures[77] - Consumer inflation in developing economies remained stable in July, with only Russia experiencing an acceleration[84] Commodity Prices and Market Trends - Most commodity prices continued to decline in August but remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels[89] - Gold prices reached a historical high of $2,439 per ounce in August[93] - Stock markets faced challenges in August, with most exchanges reporting losses[123]

Labor Market Analysis - The overall unemployment rate is relatively low at 42%, but the youth unemployment rate is almost double at 82% [1] - Unemployment for college graduates has increased by over 20% this year [1] - Traditional entry-level jobs are evolving, exemplified by the shift from human cashiers to kiosks at McDonald's [1] Skills and Education - "Hustle," defined as a strong desire and willingness to work hard, is a uniquely human trait valuable in the job market [2] - The ability to ask the right questions is becoming increasingly important in the age of AI, where answers are readily available [5][6] - Success in the workplace requires teamwork and collaboration, contrasting with the individualistic nature of academic learning [8] Advice for Young People - Find something you are passionate about and willing to work hard for [3][10] - Learn to leverage AI effectively [4] - Cultivate strong relationships and build a supportive network [9][10]

RT toly 🇺🇸 (@aeyakovenko)@blknoiz06 If profits are up there is no way unemployment will sustainably rise. People will spend the profits on more shit. ...

it is kinda fucked that unemployment could spike when companies figure out ways to use AI more efficiently & need less employees, bc economic data would look worse but certain companies would actually be++more profitable++more revenues ...

Applications for US unemployment benefits fell for a fourth week to the lowest in two months during a period that included the Independence Day holiday https://t.co/7QJISFJgF2 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Review - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is reviewing its monetary policy framework, focusing on assessing risks and uncertainties that impact policy strategy and communication [3][4][5] - Participants emphasized the importance of effective communication regarding risks and uncertainty to enhance transparency and accountability in monetary policy decisions [5][6] - The Committee plans to continue discussions on enhancing communication tools after completing the review of its Statement on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy [7] Group 2: Financial Market Developments - During the intermeeting period, policy expectations and Treasury yields rose modestly, while credit spreads narrowed and equity prices increased [8] - The median respondent's expectations for real GDP growth and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation for 2025 showed some recovery from previous declines, although growth expectations remained lower than before April [8][9] - Nominal Treasury yields increased by 15 to 20 basis points, reflecting market participants' growing fiscal concerns [9][10] Group 3: Economic Situation - Consumer price inflation was estimated at 2.3% in May, with core PCE inflation at 2.6%, both lower than at the beginning of the year [19] - The unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% in May, with solid labor market conditions and a steady increase in nonfarm payrolls [20] - Real GDP was expanding at a solid pace in the second quarter, with indicators suggesting strong consumer spending and business investment [21][22] Group 4: International Trade and Economic Outlook - U.S. imports declined sharply in April following the introduction of tariffs, while exports firmed, leading to a rebound in trade flows [23] - Economic growth abroad picked up in the first quarter but showed signs of slowing in the second quarter due to lower exports to the U.S. and uncertainty in global trade policies [24] - Inflation abroad remained near central bank targets, with some countries experiencing renewed inflationary pressures [25][26] Group 5: Labor Market and Business Sector - Labor market conditions were solid, with participants noting a potential softening in hiring due to elevated uncertainty [47] - Business investment remained cautious, with firms proceeding with existing projects but hesitating to start new ones amid uncertainty [50] - Financing for larger investment projects was readily available, although some sectors, like agriculture, faced challenges from low crop prices and high input costs [50][33] Group 6: Monetary Policy Actions - The FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4¼ to 4½ percent, assessing incoming data and the evolving economic outlook [57][62] - The Committee is committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2% objective while continuing to reduce its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt [62][63] - Participants agreed to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and adjust monetary policy as necessary [58]

Interest Rate Outlook - Wells Fargo anticipates one rate cut in 2025 and one in 2026, suggesting a neutral rate around 100 basis points above inflation [3] - Piper Sandler suggests the economy needs rate cuts to broaden fundamental breadth beyond the largest companies and wealthiest consumers [7][13] - The market is already at all-time highs, priced for only a couple of cuts [4] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The economy is bifurcated, with housing and small caps showing weakness, while S&P 500 profits are at new highs [6][7] - US PMIs remain broadly in contraction territory [6] - Unemployment at 41%, and Q2 GDP tracking around 25% do not indicate an immediate need for Fed rate cuts [9] - Positive year-over-year earnings growth suggests no imminent recession or material slowdown [10] Earnings Growth - Consensus is tracking 5% to 6% earnings growth for Q2, potentially reaching 7% to 9% with beats, following Q1's 15% earnings growth [11] Market Performance - NASDAQ is at an all-time high, with Nvidia's market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1] - The market exhibits narrowness, with concerns about smaller companies and lower-income consumers being left behind [8][13]

Economic Outlook - High youth unemployment in China suggests a challenging economic environment [1] - A property slump in China indicates potential financial instability [1] - The situation is likely to worsen for millions of people in China due to these factors [1]

Earlier this year global Google searches for “AI unemployment” hit an all-time high. “How long do you reckon you have left in your job?” is a common topic of conversation. But is ChatGPT actually putting anyone out of work? https://t.co/kifAX6LAMr ...