Inflation Overview - Singapore's inflation in November remained steady at 1.2%, missing estimates of 1.3%, as higher service prices were offset by a decline in electricity costs [1] - Core inflation also came in at 1.2%, compared to expectations of 1.3% [1] Economic Performance - Non-oil exports surged 11.6% year on year in November, exceeding estimates of a 7% rise [2] - Singapore's economy grew at 4.2% in the third quarter, beating expectations of 4% expansion [2] GDP Forecast - The ministry of trade and industry upgraded the full-year GDP forecast to "around 4%" and projected 1%-3% growth for 2026, a significant revision from earlier warnings of potential zero growth [3] - The trade ministry noted that the global environment has proven more resilient than anticipated, with strong manufacturing and export demand in the third quarter [3] Monetary Policy - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its monetary policy steady for the last two meetings after easing it in January and April due to global economic threats [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve Monitor Industry Overview - The document discusses the outlook for monetary policy in the United States, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and economic forecasts for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: - Fed speakers generally agree that the policy rate should move lower, with discussions on the timing and extent of cuts. Governors Miran and Waller advocate for near-term cuts, while Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee emphasize the need to monitor inflation trends before making decisions [4][5][6]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: - Most Fed officials expect inflation to decrease in 2026, with current rates around 2.75%. Governor Williams noted that half a percentage point of inflation is attributed to tariffs, which are expected to have a muted impact moving forward [11][12]. 3. **Labor Market Conditions**: - The labor market is described as gradually cooling, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising. Waller indicated that the current job growth is close to zero, suggesting a weak labor market [14][15]. 4. **Economic Growth Projections**: - The U.S. economy is expected to improve in 2026, with real GDP growth forecasted at approximately 2.25%, up from 1.5% in 2025. This growth is attributed to the fading effects of the government shutdown, supportive fiscal policies, and increased investments in technology [9][10]. 5. **Monetary Policy Stance**: - The Fed's approach remains data-dependent, with officials like Williams and Waller indicating a willingness to cut rates if inflation is under control and labor market conditions warrant it. Miran argues for more aggressive cuts to prevent a weaker labor market in 2027 [17][18]. 6. **Concerns About Inflation Persistence**: - Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee express concerns about inflation potentially spiraling away from the target, emphasizing the need for evidence that inflation pressures are transitory before implementing significant rate cuts [13]. 7. **Quantitative Easing Clarification**: - Fed officials clarified that recent Treasury bill purchases are not considered quantitative easing (QE), as they are aimed at managing reserves rather than lowering long-term interest rates [19][20]. Additional Important Content - **Data Challenges**: - Fed speakers acknowledged issues with noisy data, particularly regarding the November CPI and employment reports, which may not accurately reflect current economic conditions [8]. - **Dissenting Views**: - Governor Miran's unconventional view on inflation suggests that tariffs have minimal impact on consumer prices, arguing for a more aggressive monetary policy stance [12]. - **Future Employment Outlook**: - Despite current labor market weaknesses, there is optimism for recovery in 2026, driven by reduced tariff uncertainty and previous rate cuts [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the Federal Reserve Monitor, highlighting the Fed's current stance on interest rates, inflation, labor market conditions, and economic growth expectations.

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about why so many people got altcoins wrong this cycle and discuss how we used monetary policy to avoid falling for the alt season narrative. A lot of people sort of viewed my analysis as anti-crypto and whatnot for years, but all I was trying to do was be objective as to why altcoins would spend so many years bleeding to Bitcoin. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thu ...

Coming to the economy. Investors are watching for signals from policymakers heading into a key year for the Federal Reserve, with a new chair expected to be announced soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack among those, preferring to hold rates higher for longer.Well, our next guest is taking the other side, voting for a 50 basis point cut at the Fed's last meeting. Joining us now is Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Myron. Very good morning to you, Stephen.Thank you so much for joining us. Good morning. ...

Gold (GC=F) and silver (SI=F) have been two of the biggest winners in financial markets this year, as momentum in the precious metals trade pushed prices to all-time highs with just a handful of days left in 2025. Gold's year-to-date rally topped 70% on Monday, with the price of an ounce of gold hitting a record $4,450 during a year that has seen the yellow metal hit 50 all-time highs. The price of silver has had an even stronger 2025, more than doubling since January and reaching as high as $68.50 an ou ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve anticipates a rapid growth in gross domestic product (GDP) by 2026, faster than previous estimates, potentially driven by advancements in AI and sustained productivity growth [1][2] - Economists suggest that while AI may initially lead to job losses, it is expected to significantly enhance productivity in the long run, with labor productivity potentially increasing by 3 to 4 times [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - The current labor market is experiencing slow job growth, with a notable decline in both federal and private sector employment, attributed in part to recent economic policies such as reciprocal tariffs [6][7] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6% in November, with uncertainty surrounding the number of jobs needed to stabilize this rate, indicating a unique situation of low hiring and high layoffs [8][9] Technological Impact - The introduction of AI technologies is expected to follow a J-curve pattern, where initial declines in job growth and efficiency are followed by improvements as businesses adapt and incorporate these technologies [4][5] - Generative AI tools are anticipated to enhance productivity over time, but may also lead to reduced leverage for workers in wage negotiations, particularly affecting middle-tier employees [10][11] Historical Context and Monetary Policy - The current investment trends in AI infrastructure are reminiscent of the late 1990s tech boom, raising concerns about potential irrational exuberance in asset valuations [12] - Historical precedents, such as Alan Greenspan's decisions during the mid-90s, highlight the complexities of managing monetary policy in the face of technological advancements and their implications for the economy [13][14] - The Federal Reserve's approach suggests a focus on addressing the broader economic impacts of AI, rather than attempting to prevent potential market bubbles [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - UBS projects that the strength of the U.S. equity market will continue into 2026, with the S&P 500 expected to advance significantly due to earnings growth, looser financial conditions, and reduced policy uncertainty [1] Group 1: Earnings Growth and Market Projections - UBS highlights strong profit growth, especially among large technology firms, which has supported share prices without leading to unsustainable valuations, maintaining a solid market foundation for the upcoming year [2] - The bank anticipates corporate earnings for the S&P 500 to grow by approximately 10% in 2026, projecting the index could reach around 7,700 by year-end if earnings remain the main driver of price increases [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Conditions - UBS expects the Federal Reserve to continue easing monetary policy into early 2026 as inflation decreases, which will lower borrowing costs and support risk assets [3] - A change in Fed leadership is anticipated to reinforce a more accommodative policy stance, further enhancing market conditions [3] Group 3: Trade and Regulatory Environment - UBS points to improving visibility on trade and regulatory issues as a supportive factor, with legal clarity around tariff authority expected in early 2026 potentially reducing investor uncertainty [4] - Despite possible near-term pauses, UBS maintains a bullish outlook on U.S. equities, supported by earnings growth, easier monetary policy, and improved policy clarity [4] Group 4: Divergence Among Wall Street Banks - Major Wall Street banks exhibit divided views on the S&P 500's trajectory for 2026, with Bank of America projecting a cautious end around 7,100 due to valuation pressures and risks from weakening consumption [5] - Conversely, other banks foresee further upside driven by earnings growth and AI investment, with JPMorgan targeting 7,500, Goldman Sachs at 7,600, and Morgan Stanley forecasting 7,800 [6]

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Federal Reserve scheduled to inject $6.8 billion into the market tomorrow at 9:00 AM EST. https://t.co/42UytyfA7h ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said she saw no need to change US interest rates for months ahead after the central bank cut borrowing costs at its last three meetings, the Wall Street Journal reported on Sunday.Hammack opposed recent rate cuts as she is more worried about elevated inflation than the potential labor-market fragility that prompted officials to lower rates by a cumulative 75 basis points over the past few months, the report added.Hammack told the Journal that the Fed ...

Lackluster growth in Asia and low inflation justified rate cuts, writes @Moss_Eco. The same prescription may not work in 2026 (via @opinion) https://t.co/JtQblAXIK2 ...