Economic Outlook - The Heritage Foundation's chief economist predicts growth for the U.S. economy in 2026, citing favorable tax and regulatory reforms as key drivers [1][2][3] - The economist expresses optimism about the potential for a market rally if unemployment remains stable and economic stimulus is effective [4] Monetary Policy Risks - Concerns are raised regarding Federal Reserve policy, particularly if current chair Jerome Powell continues to make mistakes in managing interest rates and the balance sheet [5][6] - The selection of the next Fed chair is deemed crucial, with potential candidates favoring rate cuts in 2026, which could positively impact the economy [6][7] Housing Affordability - A study indicates that over 75% of homes in the U.S. are now unaffordable for typical households, defined as spending more than 30% of income on housing [10][12] - The current high home prices relative to median household income are highlighted as a significant barrier to affordability, regardless of interest rates [11][12] - The discussion includes the impact of illegal immigration on housing demand and supply, suggesting that reducing illegal immigration could alleviate some housing pressures [13][14]

First Insights Global Markets Research Economics - Asia ex-Japan India: Are rate cuts over? The December MPC meeting minutes show that ultra-low inflation was the trigger for the rate cut, while advocating data dependence ahead. Downside surprise on inflation led to the December cut In the December meeting, the RBI materially cut its FY26 (year ending March) inflation forecast to 2.0% from 2.6%, with the one-year ahead forecast lowered by around 50bp to 4.0% (at the RBI's target). With concurrent inflation ...

JPY Weekly Global Markets Research Foreign Exchange - Global The highest policy rate in three decades, but JPY weakness continues Key events next week: MOF's intervention risk, Ueda's speech, Tokyo CPI. The highest policy rate since 1995 At its December Monetary Policy Meeting, the BOJ hiked its policy rate by 25bp to 0.75%. As a result, the BOJ's policy rate is now at the highest level since August 1995 ( Fig. 1 ). While this hike was widely expected by the market (including Nomura), JGBs were sold across ...

Joe, always good to see you. Thanks so much for joining me. >> Thank you.Very good to be with you, Jennifer. Happy holidays. >> Happy holidays to you.And what a way to kick off the holidays with such a stellar third quarter GDP number up 4.3% a full percentage point above expectations and driven by consumer spending up three and a half% though a large chunk of that from healthcare spending. Though we also saw trade really add to this number as well. Joe, can we see this level of growth sustained into next y ...

Labor Market Analysis - Central bankers are potentially ready to act on weaknesses in the US labor market [1] - Industry should be cautious of repeating past errors [1]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Tuesday following a higher close on Monday, with major benchmark indices advancing [1] - Investors are awaiting economic data, including delayed reports on third-quarter GDP and durable goods, as well as updates on industrial production and consumer confidence [1][11] - Trading will be closed on Thursday, with an abbreviated session on Wednesday [1] Treasury Yields and Market Sentiment - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.50% [2] - The CME Group's FedWatch tool indicates an 80.1% likelihood of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged [2] Stock Performance - Major indices showed slight gains: Dow Jones up 0.04%, S&P 500 up 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 up 0.11%, and Russell 2000 up 0.02% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) increased by 0.10% to $685.52, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) rose by 0.15% to $620.15 [2] Stocks in Focus - Parsons Corp. (NYSE:PSN) jumped 6.16% after winning a contract under the Missile Defense Agency's SHIELD program [4] - XMax Inc. (NASDAQ:XWIN) shares fell 4.45% after filing for a public offering of 1.1875 million shares at $4.21 each [4] - ZIM Integrated Shipping Services Ltd. (NYSE:ZIM) rose 7.29% after receiving acquisition proposals and is evaluating offers [4] - Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. (NASDAQ:DJT) increased by 1.80% after purchasing over $40 million in Bitcoin [4] Economic Insights - LPL Research anticipates a generally positive outlook for the U.S. economy and stock market in 2026, with a modest slowdown expected early in the year before a rebound [8] - The bull market is expected to extend, driven by AI investment and easing monetary policy, with a year-end S&P 500 target range of 7,300–7,400 [9] Strategic Recommendations - LPL's committee maintains a tactical neutral stance on equities, advising investors to prepare for volatility while favoring growth style over value [10]

Group 1 - Emerging markets (EM) are expected to perform well next year due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's continued rate cuts and pressure on the U.S. dollar [1] - Stubborn inflation may lead policymakers to maintain tighter monetary conditions for a longer period, which could favor certain sectors [1] Group 2 - The analyst has extensive experience in investment research, covering publicly listed securities primarily in the tech sector [1] - The analyst's investment journey began with mutual funds and evolved to individual stocks and ETFs, emphasizing a focus on capital preservation strategies [1]

Inflation Overview - Singapore's inflation in November remained steady at 1.2%, missing estimates of 1.3%, as higher service prices were offset by a decline in electricity costs [1] - Core inflation also came in at 1.2%, compared to expectations of 1.3% [1] Economic Performance - Non-oil exports surged 11.6% year on year in November, exceeding estimates of a 7% rise [2] - Singapore's economy grew at 4.2% in the third quarter, beating expectations of 4% expansion [2] GDP Forecast - The ministry of trade and industry upgraded the full-year GDP forecast to "around 4%" and projected 1%-3% growth for 2026, a significant revision from earlier warnings of potential zero growth [3] - The trade ministry noted that the global environment has proven more resilient than anticipated, with strong manufacturing and export demand in the third quarter [3] Monetary Policy - The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) has maintained its monetary policy steady for the last two meetings after easing it in January and April due to global economic threats [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Federal Reserve Monitor Industry Overview - The document discusses the outlook for monetary policy in the United States, focusing on the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and economic forecasts for 2026. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Interest Rate Outlook**: - Fed speakers generally agree that the policy rate should move lower, with discussions on the timing and extent of cuts. Governors Miran and Waller advocate for near-term cuts, while Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee emphasize the need to monitor inflation trends before making decisions [4][5][6]. 2. **Inflation Expectations**: - Most Fed officials expect inflation to decrease in 2026, with current rates around 2.75%. Governor Williams noted that half a percentage point of inflation is attributed to tariffs, which are expected to have a muted impact moving forward [11][12]. 3. **Labor Market Conditions**: - The labor market is described as gradually cooling, with job growth slowing and the unemployment rate rising. Waller indicated that the current job growth is close to zero, suggesting a weak labor market [14][15]. 4. **Economic Growth Projections**: - The U.S. economy is expected to improve in 2026, with real GDP growth forecasted at approximately 2.25%, up from 1.5% in 2025. This growth is attributed to the fading effects of the government shutdown, supportive fiscal policies, and increased investments in technology [9][10]. 5. **Monetary Policy Stance**: - The Fed's approach remains data-dependent, with officials like Williams and Waller indicating a willingness to cut rates if inflation is under control and labor market conditions warrant it. Miran argues for more aggressive cuts to prevent a weaker labor market in 2027 [17][18]. 6. **Concerns About Inflation Persistence**: - Presidents Bostic and Goolsbee express concerns about inflation potentially spiraling away from the target, emphasizing the need for evidence that inflation pressures are transitory before implementing significant rate cuts [13]. 7. **Quantitative Easing Clarification**: - Fed officials clarified that recent Treasury bill purchases are not considered quantitative easing (QE), as they are aimed at managing reserves rather than lowering long-term interest rates [19][20]. Additional Important Content - **Data Challenges**: - Fed speakers acknowledged issues with noisy data, particularly regarding the November CPI and employment reports, which may not accurately reflect current economic conditions [8]. - **Dissenting Views**: - Governor Miran's unconventional view on inflation suggests that tariffs have minimal impact on consumer prices, arguing for a more aggressive monetary policy stance [12]. - **Future Employment Outlook**: - Despite current labor market weaknesses, there is optimism for recovery in 2026, driven by reduced tariff uncertainty and previous rate cuts [15]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the Federal Reserve Monitor, highlighting the Fed's current stance on interest rates, inflation, labor market conditions, and economic growth expectations.

Hey everyone and thanks for jumping back into the cryptoverse. Today we're going to talk about why so many people got altcoins wrong this cycle and discuss how we used monetary policy to avoid falling for the alt season narrative. A lot of people sort of viewed my analysis as anti-crypto and whatnot for years, but all I was trying to do was be objective as to why altcoins would spend so many years bleeding to Bitcoin. If you guys like the content, make sure you subscribe to the channel, give the video a thu ...