Market Reaction - Stocks are experiencing a pullback, influenced by comments from CEOs David Solomon and Ted Pick regarding a potential 10% to 20% correction over the next one to two years [1][2] - A 10% to 15% correction in a bull market is considered normal and could be a healthy sign for the market, allowing for reassessment of valuations [2][3] Market Conditions - Recent trading sessions have shown a spike in the repo market, indicating that some financial institutions may need capital, leading to increased high-yield credit spreads [4] - Despite the pullback, the market is still making higher highs and higher lows, maintaining the 20-day moving average for the S&P 500 [5] Volatility and Seasonal Trends - The VIX index is currently at 18, with expectations of a correction being discussed for some time [7] - November is traditionally a good month for stocks, raising questions about the duration of the current market conditions [7] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 35th day, with a lack of economic data potentially reducing market volatility [9][10] - As the holiday season approaches, the impact of the shutdown may prompt Congress to negotiate a deal, affecting market sentiment [12] Federal Reserve Outlook - The labor market is a primary focus for Federal Reserve members, with indications that hiring is slowing, which may influence future monetary policy [13][15] - Market expectations suggest that a rate cut in December remains a possibility due to current economic trajectories [14] Company Focus: Humana - Humana is highlighted as a company to watch, particularly due to its exposure to Medicare and potential market share gains from United Health [18][20] - The stock is showing a bullish technical pattern, and a strong earnings report could positively impact the broader health insurance sector [19][20] Company Focus: Chemico (CCJ) - Chemico is noted for its involvement in uranium deals with the U.S. government, with potential for additional partnerships being a key point of interest [21][22] - The company's operations in Kazakhstan and Canada may benefit from reduced Russian uranium supplies, presenting a favorable outlook [22]

Q2 2025 Performance - Harley-Davidson reported diluted EPS of $0.88[6] - HDMC revenue decreased by 23% year-over-year[6] - Global motorcycle shipments decreased by 28% year-over-year, primarily due to planned dealer inventory reduction[6] - Global motorcycle retail sales decreased by 15% year-over-year[6] - Global dealer inventories decreased by 28% compared to Q2 '24[6] - The cost of new or increased tariffs implemented in '25 was $13 million in Q2 '25[6] - HDFS operating income margin was 27.1%[6] HDFS Transaction - Strategic partners valued the HDFS business at approximately 1.75x post-transaction book value[7] - HDFS will sell approximately two-thirds of HDFS future retail loan originations at a premium on an annual basis for five years[7] - The transaction unlocks $1.25 billion in discretionary cash, representing approximately 40% of current Harley-Davidson market capitalization[7] - HDFS has agreed to sell over $5 billion of existing gross consumer retail loan receivables and residual interests in securitized consumer loan receivables at a premium[7]

Treasury Secretary is joining us now. Uh Scott Besson, we we worked on that that segue. Uh Mr.. Treasury Secretary, I hope you liked it. How are you. Good good to see you.>> Good morning, Joe. Good to see you. >> You uh let's talk tariffs and and and uh since it's front and center for everyone with with this beginning now at at Scotas, you have said you're going and um you want to be in the front row.I think you're I think your chances are good if you say that's where you'd like to sit. Uh, look, Joe, I I t ...

Group 1 - The discussion revolves around the potential impact of the Supreme Court's decisions on the president's policies, particularly regarding tariffs and negotiation authority [1][2] - The importance of maintaining a robust manufacturing ecosystem in the US and globally is emphasized, especially in light of threats to shutdowns [2] - The administration's stance on advanced AI chips, particularly Nvidia's Blackwell chips, is debated, with concerns about China gaining access to these technologies [3][4] Group 2 - The rapid evolution of technology, particularly in the semiconductor industry, is highlighted, with Blackwell chips potentially becoming less effective in the near future [4][5] - China's long-term strategy regarding rare earth materials is discussed, indicating that this has been a planned effort for decades rather than a reaction to recent events [6] - The relationship between the US and China is described as improving, with upcoming state visits and meetings planned, suggesting a more stable diplomatic environment [7][8]

Certain statements in this presentation, including our guidance and business strategies, are forward- looking statements that involve risk, uncertainty and assumptions, and are based on information as of November 4, 2025. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in such statements. For a discussion of these risks and uncertainties, you should review our Annual Report on Form 10-K, Form 10-Qs filed in 2025 and our other filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Third Quarter ...

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

Core Viewpoint - The prediction markets are currently underestimating the likelihood of the Trump administration winning a court ruling regarding tariffs, with estimates around 40% while some believe it is above 50% [2]. Group 1: Tariff Implications - The administration has alternative trade laws to implement tariffs if the court ruling is unfavorable, although these alternatives have limitations [3]. - The outcome of the court case may not significantly impact current tariffs but could influence future administrations' use of the AIPA [5]. - Business leaders express a preference for maintaining existing tariffs for planning certainty, as a ruling against them could lead to uncertainty and alternative tactics from the administration [7]. Group 2: Business Adaptation - Larger companies have adapted to tariffs by restructuring supply chains, while smaller niche companies may struggle and face potential bankruptcy [9]. - The impact of tariffs is not uniform across the industry; larger firms may find ways to manage, while smaller firms could face dire consequences [10].

All right. I think the question is, do you think the prediction markets are getting this right. There's about a 40% chance or so of the president uh having a ruling in his favor.>> Yeah. You know, I think this case is a close calling. It's going to be a fascinating day tomorrow.Um I think the I think the markets the the prediction markets are underestimating the chances that the Trump administration wins. It's clearly not 100%. I wouldn't go there, but I think it's above that 5050 mark and they have it real ...

Core Insights - Corporate earnings are increasingly significant in the absence of key government data, serving as a guide for investors amid trade battles, inflation, and a weakening labor market [1] - Despite a generally positive earnings season, there is an underlying concern regarding consumer affordability issues that persist from the previous season [2] Earnings Performance - As of last week, 81% of S&P 500 companies exceeded EPS consensus, while 76% surpassed sales expectations, although both metrics have slightly declined from previous updates [3] - EPS beats are marginally above last quarter's levels, but sales beats are tracking slightly below the prior season [3] Market Sentiment - Analysts believe earnings are providing a solid foundation for the US equity market, but sentiment is lower compared to the last reporting season, indicating that the peak of the earnings story may have passed [4] Sector Insights - The tech sector reported strength in AI and mobile, while consumer companies expressed concerns about current market conditions [6] - Tariffs emerged as a significant theme, with companies noting early shopper purchases to avoid levies and ongoing hesitancy in decision-making due to tariff-related uncertainties [7] Consumer Behavior - Consumer-related companies reported a price-sensitive and value-conscious consumer base, with Kimberly-Clark executives indicating no immediate relief for consumer pressures [8][10] - Other companies highlighted deteriorating consumer sentiment, citing challenges in housing affordability, reduced travel stays, lower demand for vehicle repairs, and dining pressures among low- to middle-income customers [10]