本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【美国国债收益率全线小幅收低，受多因素影响】130亿美元20年期美债续发获强劲需求，支撑美债走 高，收益率全线小幅收低。美国时段午后，短端和中端品种延续涨势，利差略微趋陡，走势还受5年期 美债期货大宗买盘提振。 纽约时间下午3点刚过，美债收益率全线下行1.5至1个基点，短端和中端领 涨，2s10s和5s30s利差日内略微趋陡。 20年期国债标售表现强劲，中标收益率较发行前交易水平低1.2 个基点，助美债维持小涨。交易商获配比例为10%，间接投标人获配63.6%，直接投标人获配26.3%。 美元互换利差在美国时段早盘扩大，并收于日内高点。此前有报道称，美联储向其他监管机构展示修订 版计划，放宽对华尔街大型银行的资本金提案。 美债期权有多笔交易受关注，包括12月10年期美债跨 式期权大额买盘，权利金约2200万美元，以及11月10年期美债看跌期权大额买盘。 截至美东时间下午 04：39，美国2年期国债收益率下跌1.06个基点，报3.4445%；5年期国债收益率下跌1.05个基点，报 3.5533%。 美国10年期国债收益率下跌1.15个基点，报3.95 ...

Core Viewpoint - The yield on the UK 10-year government bonds has decreased by 10 basis points to 4.376% [1] Group 1 - The decline in the yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards safer assets [1]

Group 1 - The GBP/USD exchange rate continued to decline, approaching $1.33, marking a one-week low with a drop of 0.31% due to inflation data falling short of market expectations, intensifying speculation of a rate cut by the Bank of England [1] - The UK 10-year government bond yield fell below 4.5%, reaching its lowest level since July 1, driven by disappointing inflation data [1] - The overall inflation rate in September remained steady at 3.8%, below the expected 4%, while core inflation dropped to 3.5%, also lower than the anticipated 3.7% [1] Group 2 - The UK government borrowed £99.8 billion in the first half of the fiscal year, exceeding the Office for Budget Responsibility's forecast by £7.2 billion [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Bank of England may initiate rate cuts next year, following comments from Governor Bailey regarding a weak labor market and an unemployment rate rising to 4.8% [1] Group 3 - The GBP/USD technical analysis indicates that the exchange rate is close to $1.3330, failing to break the 20-day exponential moving average support level of $1.3407 [2] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to near 40.00, with a potential bearish momentum if it falls below this level [2] Group 4 - Key support area is identified at the low of August 1 at 1.3140, while the psychological resistance level is at 1.3500 [3]

Group 1 - Russell Investments reports that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury has fallen below 4% but remains close to fair value [1] - The firm's basic assumption is that as the labor market softens, service sector inflation should remain relatively mild [1] - This environment will allow the Federal Reserve to look past recent noise and potentially continue to lower interest rates in the upcoming month [1]

Core Viewpoint - The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has increased by 1 basis point to 1.665% [1] Group 1 - The rise in the 10-year bond yield indicates a potential shift in investor sentiment towards Japanese government debt [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The relief of the US credit crisis and the expectation of the end of the government shutdown may put pressure on precious metal prices. However, factors such as the weakening employment performance in the US leading to an increased expectation of the Fed's interest rate cuts, tight inter - bank liquidity potentially causing the Fed to end balance - sheet reduction by the end of 2025, the proactive fiscal expansion expectations of many global countries, continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, and intractable geopolitical risks provide long - term support for precious metal prices [3]. - It is expected that precious metal prices may be adjusted. Investors are advised to wait for price pull - backs before establishing long positions. Specific support and resistance levels are provided for London gold, Shanghai gold, London silver, and Shanghai silver [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: US Fiscal and Monetary Policy - The US outstanding public debt scale reached $3.80 trillion, an increase of $102.7 billion from the previous week. The net issuance of US federal government treasury bonds in Q3 2025 was $964.5 billion, and the net issuance in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter. The CBO's 2025 forecast shows that making the expanded additional tax credits permanent may increase the fiscal deficit by $23.4 - $43.9 billion from 2026 - 2035, and repealing health insurance - related provisions may increase the fiscal deficit by $1.4 - $37.5 billion from 2026 - 2035 [10]. - The Fed's daily overnight reverse repurchase scale was $4.1 billion. The Fed's bank reserve balance decreased from the previous week to $2.99 trillion, the overnight reverse repurchase agreement scale decreased to $347.9 billion, and the US Treasury cash account increased to $852 billion. The US Congress has not passed a new temporary appropriation bill, and the federal government shutdown has entered the fourth week, with 4,108 federal employees laid off [11][13]. - The Fed's rediscount loan to commercial banks decreased to $6.018 billion from the previous week, the seasonal loan increased to $0.49 billion, and the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) expired on March 11 and dropped to $0 [14]. - Due to the relief of the US credit crisis, the Fed's Standing Repurchase Facility (SRF) suspended operations on October 17, after having a scale of $15.1 billion on October 15 and 16 [15]. - The medium - and long - term inflation expectations implied by US Treasury bonds decreased, but the one - year and five - year inflation expectations of consumers in September were 4.8% and 3.9% respectively, remaining flat or higher than the previous values. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September consumer - end inflation CPI data on October 24 [16][17]. - Concerns about the weakening of the US employment market and the Fed's expected interest rate cuts and end of balance - sheet reduction led to a decline in the yields of short -, medium -, and long - term US Treasury bonds [19]. - The difference between long - and medium - term US Treasury bond yields was positive, but the difference between long - and short - to medium - term Treasury bond yields narrowed due to expectations of Fed interest rate cuts [22][23]. - The US Office of Financial Research (OFR) Financial Stress Index increased from the previous week to - 1.8610, mainly due to the Fed's continuous balance - sheet reduction and the US Treasury's reconstruction of the cash account, which tightened inter - bank market liquidity [24]. Second Part: US Economic and Employment Performance - The weekly rate of loans and leases of US commercial banks decreased quarter - on - quarter. The weekly rate of all commercial bank loans and leases was 0.01%, with different changes in various types of loans such as business and industrial loans, residential real estate loans, etc. [29][31]. - The weekly annual rate of US Redbook commercial retail sales increased to 5.9% from the previous week, indicating stable consumer spending [34]. - The US MBA Mortgage Application Activity Index decreased to 317.2 from the previous week. The 15 - year and 30 - year fixed mortgage rates decreased to 5.52% and 6.27% respectively. The total sales volume of new and existing homes in August increased to 4.8 million units [37]. - As of September 25, the number of initial jobless claims in the US was 218,000, lower than expected and the previous value, while the number of continued jobless claims was 1.926 million, lower than expected but higher than the previous value. The ADP non - farm private employment in September was - 32,000, lower than expected and the previous value, indicating concerns about the weakening of the US employment market [40]. - The differences in medium - and long - term Treasury bond yields between the US and Germany and Japan decreased due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different monetary policy expectations of central banks in different countries [41][43]. - The euro - to - dollar exchange rate began to rise, and the dollar - to - RMB exchange rate began to weaken due to factors such as the weakening of the US employment market and different economic and political situations in different countries [44]. - The volatility of the US S&P 500 index decreased, while the volatility of the gold ETF increased [46]. Third Part: Gold - Silver Spread and Inventory Situation - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX gold futures decreased quarter - on - quarter, and the SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased from the previous week [55]. - The total inventory of gold in COMEX and the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased from the previous week, with the COMEX gold futures inventory decreasing and the Shanghai Futures Exchange gold futures inventory increasing [59][60]. - The differences between domestic and foreign gold futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign gold futures or spot prices [64]. - The London - COMEX gold basis was negative and at a relatively low level, while the basis between the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange was positive and at a relatively high level. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai gold basis [66]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai gold futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to take profit on last week's long positions in the Shanghai gold monthly spread at high prices [69]. - The 1 - month London silver lease rate began to decline, and the supply shortage in the London silver market may be alleviated [71][73]. - As of September 23, the ratio of non - commercial long - to - short positions in COMEX silver futures increased quarter - on - quarter, and the iShare Silver ETF holdings increased from the previous week [75]. - The total inventory of silver in COMEX, the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange decreased from the previous week [77][79]. - The differences between domestic and foreign silver futures and spot prices were at relatively low levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and low - entry arbitrage opportunities for the differences between domestic and foreign silver futures or spot prices [82]. - The overseas and Shanghai silver bases were positive and at relatively high levels. Investors are advised to pay attention to short - term, light - position, and high - exit arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai silver basis [83]. - The differences between near - and far - month contracts of COMEX and Shanghai silver futures were negative and basically within a reasonable range. Investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the Shanghai silver near - and far - month contract spread [85]. - The "gold - silver ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was higher than the 25% and 50% quantiles of the past five years respectively. Investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - silver ratio" cautiously [87]. - The "gold - oil ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the expected increase in oil production by OPEC +, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - oil ratio" cautiously. The "gold - copper ratio" in London, the US, and Shanghai was also much higher than the 90% quantile of the past five years. Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US tariffs, investors are advised to hold last week's long positions in the "gold - copper ratio" cautiously [89].

每经AI快讯，10月21日，日本5年期国债收益率下降2个基点至1.220%。 ...

Core Insights - Japan's 30-year government bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 3.105% [1] - Japan's 40-year government bond yield fell by 1.5 basis points to 3.405% [1]

每经AI快讯，10月20日，日本40年期国债收益率下跌1.5个基点至3.405%。 ...

每经AI快讯，10月20日，日本5年期国债收益率上升2.5个基点至1.215%。 ...