Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Dec. 30, 2025 in New York City.The U.S. 10-year Treasury was slightly lower on Wednesday as investors await economic data and take stock ahead of the New Year.The yield on the 10-year Treasury dipped by 2 basis points to 4.108%. The yield on the 2-year Treasury was also last seen more than 1 basis point lower at 3.442%. Yields and prices move in opposite directions. One basis point equals 0.01%. ...

一名前商品交易员警告称，在财政支出扩张、全球化退潮以及供应端约束仍存的背景下，通胀可能出现类似上世纪70年代 的"第二波"反弹。尽管未必重回2021年的高点，但持续高于2%的通胀本身就足以冲击市场。他认为，长期债券风险最大， 而股票、房地产和大宗商品，尤其是工业金属和能源，或将成为当前环境下更有效的通胀对冲工具。 一名前商品交易员警告称，类似上世纪70年代的通胀模式，可能正在酝酿之中。而应对"第二波"通胀，恐怕并不轻松。 尽管美股距离再创新高仅差不到1%，这位交易员认为，有一个问题，可能会在未来一年让投资者坐立不安—— 通胀卷土 重来 。这是前能源交易员、现投资者、在Substack上以"Fred's Corner"为名撰写博客、长期关注大宗商品的Fred所提出的 警告。 简而言之，Fred担心， 通胀可能出现类似1970年代那样的"第二波"上涨 。他承认，当前环境与当年并不完全相同：50年 前，美国遭遇的是石油供应冲击，而如今全球原油总体上仍处于相对过剩状态；此外，当年金本位制的终结，也"以一种特 殊方式影响了黄金这种闪闪发光的金属"。 Fred对比了美股2015年6月以来的走势，与1967年开始的1970 ...

长期美国国债下跌，30年期收益率升至自9月初以来最高水平，本周美联储降息后货币政策立场逐步反 映至债市中。 30年期收益率一度上涨6个基点至4.86%，创9月5日以来最高水平，本周累计上涨约5个基点。两年期国 债收益率基本持平，较前周略微下跌。 美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔上周在利率会议后举行的新闻发布会上留下了进一步降息的可能性，这一点 出乎市场意料。美国银行的经济学家称其为"意外的鸽式降息"。 对明年美联储将进一步降息的预期推动短期国债收益率走低，而长期债券则反映出高通胀预期。芝加哥 联储行长Austan Goolsbee和堪萨斯城联储行长Jeff Schmid在周五发布的声明中提到，通胀担忧促使他们 反对周三降行动，支持维持利率不变。 宏观策略师Edward Harrison认为："芝加哥联储行长Austan Goolsbee表示，他最近的降息异议是基于对 通胀的担忧。考虑到交易员仍预计2026年将进行两次幅度25基点的降息，Goolsbee的评论指向国债下行 风险。" 此外，明年将获得投票权的克利夫兰联储行长Beth Hammack重申有关通胀支持暂缓降息的观点。 施罗德投资管理公司的投资组合经理Neil ...

Group 1 - The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, causing the dollar to fall below the 150 mark, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets due to bad loans at two US banks [1] - The dollar-yen exchange rate dropped over 0.5% to around 149.63, marking the lowest level since October 6 [1] - The Swiss franc also appreciated, while the US dollar and US Treasury yields declined amid a sell-off in regional bank stocks [1] Group 2 - A week prior, the yen had fallen to its lowest level since February after the election of a new leader for the Liberal Democratic Party and subsequent political instability in Japan [2] - Market focus is on the formation of Japan's coalition government, particularly the potential agreement between the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party [3] - Political uncertainty has diminished expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of Japan this month, although the Bank's governor indicated a willingness to tighten policy if economic confidence improves [3]

Group 1: Inflation Data Insights - The overall inflation rate has reached a significant milestone with a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, marking the first time in 2023 that it has fallen into the "2 range," indicating a decisive victory in the fight against inflation [1][3] - Core CPI shows a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, but its downward trajectory is becoming increasingly clear, suggesting that the true real-time core inflation level is much lower than reported [1][3] Group 2: Federal Reserve Policy Outlook - The CPI report enhances the likelihood of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, opening the door for potential rate cuts as early as next week [1][2] - The focus of the Federal Reserve is shifting from combating inflation to maintaining economic growth, as the risks to economic growth are now greater than those posed by inflation [3] Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - The August CPI report is viewed as a positive turning point, confirming the diminishing threat of inflation and pushing the Federal Reserve towards a policy shift [2][3] - The stock market is expected to see a significant boost in risk appetite, particularly for interest-sensitive sectors like technology, as the anticipation of rate cuts creates a window for valuation recovery [2][3] - The bond market is likely to experience a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, especially for the 2-year Treasury, as investor enthusiasm for bonds is rekindled [2][3] - The dollar index may face downward pressure as the interest rate differential narrows with rising expectations of rate cuts [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The rising yields on U.S. Treasury bonds may attract buyers, but upcoming bond auctions will be closely monitored due to concerns over U.S. fiscal issues [1] Group 1 - The 30-year, 10-year, and 2-year U.S. Treasury yields are currently around 5%, 4.5%, and 4.0% respectively, which are seen as attractive levels for low-end buyers [1] - Recent weeks have shown that these yield levels have been appealing to certain investors [1] - Despite the attractive yields, investors are adopting a cautious stance ahead of the U.S. Treasury bond auction this week due to ongoing fiscal concerns [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Treasury will auction $22 billion in 30-year bonds this Thursday, which has become a focal point for Wall Street due to increasing global investor resistance to long-term government debt [1] - The 30-year U.S. Treasury bond has become the least favored bond type, with its yield reaching a nearly 20-year high of 5.15% last month and hovering around 4.98% at the start of the week [3] - Demand for long-term bonds has been persistently weak, with rising yields prompting investors to seek higher risk premiums for government loans, leading to increased financing pressure as U.S. borrowing continues to rise [4] Group 2 - Concerns over the fiscal situation have intensified, with predictions that recent tax and spending legislation could increase the U.S. budget deficit by trillions in the coming years, and Moody's has downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 [5] - The total U.S. federal debt has surpassed $36 trillion, accounting for 124% of GDP, with interest payments projected to exceed $1 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [5] - Due to severe sell-offs, there are speculations that the U.S. Treasury may reduce or suspend the issuance of 30-year bonds, as the current trading situation for long-term U.S. Treasuries no longer aligns with the traditional view of them as "risk-free assets" [5]

Core Viewpoint - The auction of $69 billion 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds showed a stable demand, with the yield slightly lower than pre-auction trading levels, indicating continued interest in short-term debt instruments [1] Group 1: Auction Results - The yield on the 2-year Treasury bonds was one basis point lower than the pre-auction trading level, and approximately two basis points lower than last Friday's closing price [1] - The allocation to primary dealers was 10.5%, below the recent average of 10.9%, indicating a lower participation from these dealers [1] - Direct bidders received 26.2% of the allocation, significantly higher than the recent average of 16.4%, suggesting strong interest from non-dealer participants [1] - Indirect bidders accounted for 63.3% of the allocation, slightly below the recent average of 72.7%, indicating a moderate level of interest from this group [1] - The bid-to-cover ratio was 2.57, close to the past six auction average of 2.65 and higher than the 2.52 from the April auction, reflecting solid demand [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - Upcoming Treasury auctions for 5-year and 7-year bonds are expected to benefit from potential end-of-month demand, indicating a positive outlook for short-term debt instruments [1]

Core Viewpoint - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aa3 to Aa1 due to increasing government debt and interest payment ratios, marking a significant warning signal for the financial markets [1][8]. Group 1: Impact on Financial Markets - Following Moody's downgrade, U.S. stock ETFs tracking the S&P 500 index fell by 1%, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) dropped by 1.3% in after-hours trading [4]. - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond surged, approaching 4.5%, while the two-year Treasury yield reached a daily high of 4.006%, marking an increase of 1.17% [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing U.S. Treasury Yields - The recent decline in U.S. Treasury prices is attributed to three main factors: 1. Adjustments in monetary policy expectations, with a shift towards a wait-and-see approach among Federal Reserve officials despite a slowdown in inflation [10]. 2. Increasing imbalance in supply and demand for U.S. Treasuries, with high issuance levels and upcoming debt repayment peaks [10]. 3. Growing concerns regarding the U.S. government's debt repayment capacity, exacerbated by rising federal debt levels and potential tax cuts [10][11]. Group 3: U.S. Debt Situation - The average daily increase in U.S. federal debt over the past year was $442 million, equating to approximately $5,121 per second, with over 30% of U.S. debt facing maturity and refinancing pressures within a year [11]. - The current public debt-to-GDP ratio stands at 97.8%, projected to reach a historical high of 107.2% by 2029, raising concerns among overseas investors about the sustainability of U.S. debt [11].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have recovered from the declines following the U.S. tariff announcement on April 2, with investors focusing on the upcoming Federal Reserve decision [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current interest rate range of 4.25%-4.5% is over 95%, but Wall Street is more concerned about Chairman Powell's comments for future policy direction [1] - Many market strategists are adopting a more defensive stance ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting due to uncertainties regarding Fed policy and trade tariffs [3] Group 2 - The utilities sector has been the best-performing sector in the S&P 500 this year, with a gain of over 6%, while the financial sector has risen by 2% and the communication services sector has declined by 2% [5] - Large technology companies are expected to perform well even in an economic slowdown, with AI spending likely to continue, making tech stocks a defensive choice [5] - Piper Sandler's analysis suggests that software companies are more attractive than semiconductor companies, with specific recommendations for stocks like Twilio and Monday.com [6] Group 3 - Short-term bonds are viewed as a good investment opportunity, with a recommendation to lock in current interest rates before the Federal Reserve meeting [7] - As of Tuesday, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond was reported at 3.797% [7]