What's going on guys? Today I got a great conversation with Darius Dale for you. In this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates in December? Who is going to be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? And how is the Fed actually impacting different asset prices? What is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up, down, sideways, backwards? Prices are going everywhere. People are completely confused as to how the Fed is going to act. And the market i ...

Jobless Claims Data - Initial Jobless Claims reported at 191K and Continuing Claims at 1.939 million, significantly lower than recent trends, indicating potential inaccuracies in data or a resilient labor market [1][2] - Current job losses in the private sector reported by ADP and anticipated layoffs from major corporations contrast with low jobless claims, suggesting that the labor market may be experiencing structural changes [2][3] - The latest Initial Claims figures are the lowest since late September 2022, with Continuing Claims remaining below the psychologically significant 2 million mark since Memorial Day [3] Earnings Reports - Dollar General (DG) exceeded earnings expectations by 39%, reporting $1.28 per share against a consensus of 92 cents, with revenues of $10.65 billion, leading to a pre-market share increase of over 5% [5] - Kroger (KR) reported earnings of $1.05 per share, slightly above estimates, but revenues of $33.86 billion fell short of expectations, resulting in a pre-market share decline of 2.8% [6] - Bank of Montreal (BMO) reported earnings of $2.36 per share, surpassing estimates by 9.26%, with revenues of $6.73 billion exceeding projections by 5.24%, leading to flat share performance [7] - Build-a-Bear Workshops (BBW) showed mixed results with a bottom-line beat of 12.7% at 62 cents per share, but a sales miss of 1.28% at $122.68 million, causing a pre-market share drop of 6.6% [8]

Market attention this week will focus on the US economic news. On Friday, Sep personal spending is expected to increase by +0.3% and Sep personal income is expected to climb +0.3% m/m. Also on Friday, the Sep core PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to climb by +0.2% m/m and +2.8% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan's Dec consumer sentiment index is expected to climb by +1.0 to 52.0.President Trump said on Tuesday that he will announce his selection for the new Fed Chair ...

To cut or not to cut? Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has cautioned markets that lower interest rates might not come in December. But some members of the Fed’s Board of Governors, such as Stephen Miran, an appointee and ally of President Donald Trump, want lower rates. It’s unclear what path the Fed will take. Markets want predictable interest rates. However, that isn’t the Fed’s job. Officially, the Fed has a three-part mandate: full employment, price stability, and moderate interest rates. An unspoken agreem ...

There's a lot of questions about whether or not the market will push back against a Hassett fed that could be cutting rates aggressively. What do you make of this debate. Morning.I think it's an interesting debate, no doubt. And if you look at the two year yields, they tell you a big story. Now, what is priced in by the markets.The markets are thinking that the terminal rate is going to be 3%. Well, that is possible. And there's there have been concerns, as you mentioned, you know, about whether that has th ...

Emerging markets left the Fed behind on the descent from high interest rates, say @annerquaye and @johnauthers (via @opinion) https://t.co/6XOz5wvKaP ...

For many, credit cards are a convenience and, at times, a lifeline. They’re helpful in financing larger purchases and many individuals turn to them when they need to cover expenses while waiting on their next paycheck to arrive. While it’s always important to use credit cards cautiously, 2026 could be the worst year to rely on credit cards — find out why below. For You: Fidelity Says This Is a Surprising Risk of Holding Too Much Cash — Do You Have Too Much? Read This: 6 Safe Accounts Proven To Grow Your Mo ...

Silver traded near an all-time high, after US payroll data reinforced bets that the Fed will cut interest rates in its final policy meeting of the year https://t.co/s4GBcLTkM7 ...

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The S&P 500 equity market is broadening outside of the MAG7, with rotation inside MAG7 expected to be a major theme as interest rates move down, indicating optimism on equities and a potential Santa Claus rally in December [2][3] - Decoupling between equities and crypto, specifically Bitcoin, occurred around April, suggesting that associating equities and crypto in the same context may not be relevant in the near future [4] - New organic buyers are entering the Bitcoin market, exemplified by Vanguard opening access to more buyers and JP Morgan's involvement, with IBIT experiencing $32 billion in inflows this year [6] - Interest rates are anticipated to decrease, with the Fed potentially cutting rates by 25 basis points, which is expected to support equities [13] - A decrease in the ten-year note yield to 35% is expected to incentivize home buyers and benefit market laggers, including the financial sector [14] Bitcoin & Crypto Analysis - Bitcoin has historically experienced approximately 20 pullbacks of 25% or more since CME Group started trading Bitcoin futures in 2017, including three pullbacks of 50% or more [5] - The market may want to revisit the April low of $76000 for Bitcoin [6] - Crypto exposure is being considered by advisors, with discussions around allocations of 1% to 2%, similar to dipping toes into commodities like gold and silver [10][11] - There is a debate regarding Bitcoin's fundamental price value, with some questioning its use case within the US and viewing it more as a community-driven phenomenon [8][9]

President Donald Trump is about to get what he wants -- a Fed chair willing to cut rates deeply. @edwardnh explains why long-term borrowing costs, including mortgages, aren't going to budge as long as the economy is strong. https://t.co/MASkxaGZ3t ...