Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock has declined approximately 14% since analysts rated it as a strong buy in early February, and while it appears undervalued, it is currently not a buy due to bearish technical indicators and weak growth expectations for the second quarter [1][14]. Technical Analysis - The downward trend for ASML began with a bearish engulfing pattern in mid-February, and the stock is currently far below its trend line, indicating a lack of support and potential for further declines [3][4]. - The 50-day moving average has remained significantly below the 200-day moving average, indicating a consistent long-term bearish momentum [5]. - Recent price action shows that ASML has fallen below all Fibonacci retracement levels, suggesting that the recent rebound is failing [6]. - There are no signs of improvement in ASML's situation, with bearish indicators persisting [8]. Financial Performance - ASML reported net sales of €7.742 billion for Q1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 46.4%, aligning with expectations, and a dollar growth of 41.77% to $8.82 billion, exceeding forecasts by $35.52 million [11]. - The company’s bookings were €3.936 billion, slightly above the previous year's €3.611 billion, and adjusted earnings per share were $6.83, surpassing expectations by $0.31 [11]. - However, a concerning signal is the significant decline in operating cash flow, which, while historically normal for Q1, raises some alarm [11]. Future Guidance - ASML expects Q2 2025 revenue to be between €7.2 billion and €7.7 billion, representing a 19.3% increase from €6.243 billion in Q2 2024, but this is a significant slowdown compared to Q1's growth rate [12]. - The anticipated gross margin for Q2 is projected to be between 50% and 53%, which is consistent with the previous year's margin of 51.5% [12]. Valuation - The current price-to-sales ratio for ASML is 7.394, down from over 15 in mid-2024, indicating that the stock is undervalued despite the disappointing guidance for Q2 [14]. - The valuation reflects excessive pessimism, as the expected revenue growth remains around average levels, and the stock is trading at a premium of 193% compared to the median price-to-sales ratio in the IT sector [14][15]. - Although the stock may present a long-term investment opportunity, the combination of weak technicals and slowing growth suggests that short-term gains are unlikely [15].

Group 1 - Expectations for Tesla, Inc.'s Q1 2025 have been revised downward due to the rapid deterioration of the brand [1] - The actions of CEO Elon Musk are beginning to have a significant impact on the company's perception and performance [1] Group 2 - No relevant content available for this section [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Occidental Petroleum Corporation (NYSE: OXY ) is an international energy company with diversified assets, primarily in the United States, the Middle East, and North Africa. They are also one of the largest oil and gas producers in the United States and are My main goal when performing a fundamental analysis is to dig into the numbers of a company and find its intrinsic value (preferably) or relative value in order to find solid companies trading at a steep discount. I followed a similar path to that of Geor ...

Group 1 - The individual has a strong interest in financial markets, particularly in fundamental analysis, which evaluates actual company performance rather than stock price movements [1] - The focus is primarily on long-term investments in stocks and ETFs, with a preference for US companies, while also analyzing European and Chinese firms [1] - The banking sector is highlighted as a key area of interest, viewed as essential for understanding economic health [1] Group 2 - The individual has been engaged in learning about investments for approximately five years, transitioning from trading to a more analytical approach [1] - Macroeconomics is another area of interest, indicating a broader understanding of economic factors influencing investments [1] - The platform Seeking Alpha is utilized for sharing opinions and engaging with others in the investment community [1]

Group 1 - The investor has a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a portfolio split of approximately 50%-50% [1] - The investment strategy involves buying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, primarily using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] - The investor conducts professional background checks on insiders who purchase shares after sell-offs to ensure credibility [1] - The investment timeframe typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, indicating a medium-term investment horizon [1]

Hi there, welcome to my profile. My name is Eugenio Catone, I live in Italy and I am 26 years old. In 2023 I graduated in Business Administration and I am completing my studies. My interest in financial markets started about 5 years ago when I accidentally came across a video about trading. That was the spark that introduced me to a new world, but over time I realized that it was not my path: too many charts, lines, and not very concrete concepts for a pragmatic person like me. I needed something different ...