Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have experienced a significant decline after reaching a record high, presenting a potential buying opportunity for investors as the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates further before the year ends [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold futures for December settled at $3,983.10 per ounce, marking a 0.9% decrease and a third consecutive session loss [3]. - Since the record high of $4,359.40 on October 20, gold prices have dropped nearly 9% [3]. - Despite the recent decline, gold is still trading approximately 3% higher this month and has gained nearly 51% year-to-date [3]. Group 2: Expert Insights - Ryan McIntyre from Sprott Inc. stated that gold remains well-positioned for long-term growth due to eroding global trust levels, which drive demand for independent assets [2]. - Aakash Doshi from State Street Investment Management described the recent decline in gold prices as temporary, suggesting a potential buying floor around $3,600 to $3,650 [4]. - Stefan Gleason from Money Metals Exchange noted that the expected interest rate cut by the Fed would support the pro-gold narrative, as lower rates benefit non-interest-yielding gold [5]. Group 3: Economic Context - The precarious fiscal outlook in Western economies, particularly the U.S. with high deficits and substantial federal debt, could support gold prices over the medium to long term as sovereign risk rises [2]. - Gleason emphasized that the world is overexposed to the U.S. dollar and underexposed to gold, predicting that gold prices will continue to rise in all fiat currencies after adjusting from recent fluctuations [6].

Core Viewpoint - Gold has experienced a significant selloff recently, and with the Federal Reserve likely to reduce benchmark interest rates, there may be a missed opportunity for investors to acquire gold at a lower price [1] Group 1 - The recent selloff in gold indicates a potential buying opportunity for investors [1] - The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates could influence gold prices positively in the near future [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut short-term interest rates again on October 29, as inflation pressures ease and job growth weakens, despite ongoing government shutdown complicating economic data availability [1][2][12]. Economic Indicators - Inflation increased to 3% year-over-year in September, slightly up from 2.9% in August, but analysts believe the Fed will prioritize cooling labor market risks over persistent inflation [2][13]. - The Fed's benchmark short-term rate was previously cut to a range of 4% to 4.25% in September, with expectations for another quarter-point reduction [5][6]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market is showing signs of cooling, with private U.S. employers shedding 32,000 jobs in September, raising concerns about potential job cuts by companies [6][14]. - Amazon has confirmed plans to cut about 14,000 corporate jobs, highlighting the growing pressure on the job market [7]. Consumer Impact - Lower interest rates are expected to stimulate the economy by making loans and credit more affordable, benefiting borrowers and homebuyers [9][11]. - A WalletHub survey indicated that over half of respondents feel another quarter-point cut would not significantly impact their lives, suggesting a disconnect between rate cuts and consumer sentiment [10]. Data Collection Challenges - The ongoing government shutdown has led to a data blackout, delaying the September jobs report and halting most data collection at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [12][16]. - The Fed is relying on alternative data sources, such as state-level unemployment claims, but acknowledges these are not as effective as traditional government data [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut its key interest rate on Wednesday, potentially signaling another cut in December to support hiring and stimulate the economy [1] Interest Rate Cuts - A rate cut on Wednesday would mark the second reduction this year, aimed at lowering borrowing costs for consumers, particularly for mortgages and auto loans [1] - The average 30-year mortgage rate has decreased from 6.6% to approximately 6.2% since Fed chair Jerome Powell indicated potential rate cuts in late August, which may help the sluggish housing market [1] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve is navigating an unusual economic period, making future moves more difficult to predict than usual [1]

Market Overview - Stocks experienced a pullback after reaching record intraday highs, with the S&P 500 briefly dipping into negative territory before posting modest gains [1] - The Dow increased by 255.49 points (0.5%) to 47,800.08, the Nasdaq rose by 68.16 points (0.3%) to 23,705.62, and the S&P 500 gained 5.40 points (0.1%) to 6,880.56 [1] Economic Indicators - The early strength in the market was attributed to optimism regarding a potential trade deal between the U.S. and China, alongside a rare metals deal between the U.S. and Japan [2] - Consumer confidence in the U.S. showed a modest decline, with the Conference Board's consumer confidence index falling to 94.6 in October from 95.6 in September, below economists' expectations of 93.4 [5] Sector Performance - Steel stocks saw significant gains, with the NYSE Arca Steel Index rising by 1.8%, marking its best intraday level in over fifteen years [6] - Software stocks also performed well, reflected by a 1.3% increase in the Dow Jones U.S. Software Index [6] - Conversely, computer hardware stocks faced pressure, leading to a 2.0% decline in the NYSE Arca Computer Hardware Index [6] - Airline, utilities, and commercial real estate stocks exhibited notable weakness, which limited broader market gains [7] Upcoming Events - Traders are anticipating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement, with expectations of a quarter-point interest rate cut [3] - The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates an 87.9% chance of another quarter-point rate cut in December, while views on further cuts in early 2026 are mixed [4] - Major tech companies, including Alphabet, Apple, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Amazon, are set to report their quarterly results soon [4] Global Market Trends - In the Asia-Pacific region, stock markets mostly declined, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index down by 0.6% and China's Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.2% [8] - European markets showed mixed performance, with the French CAC 40 Index down by 0.2%, the German DAX Index stable, and the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index up by 0.7% [9] - In the bond market, treasuries showed modest strength, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note decreasing by 1.4 basis points to 3.983% [9]

Group 1 - The dollar index (DXY00) is trading slightly lower by -0.05% ahead of the 2-day FOMC meeting, which may result in a dovish outcome with potential hints of further rate cuts and an end to quantitative tightening [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is putting pressure on the dollar, with concerns that prolonged shutdowns could harm the US economy and lead to interest rate cuts by the Fed [1] - The markets are pricing in a 98% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting, with expectations of an overall 115 basis point reduction by the end of 2026 [3] Group 2 - The dollar has underlying support from a +0.6 basis point rise in the 10-year T-note yield, as well as stronger-than-expected reports from the Richmond Fed and US consumer confidence [2] - The FOMC meeting will not release a Summary of Economic Projections, meaning no updates on the Fed's dot plot will be provided, but Fed Chair Powell will address the media post-meeting [4] - There is market anticipation for an update on the potential end of the Fed's quantitative tightening, which could positively impact stock and bond markets by increasing liquidity [5] Group 3 - The August FHFA US house price index rose +0.4% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of a -0.1% decline, while the S&P CoreLogic CS US 20-city house index rose +0.19% month-over-month and +1.58% year-over-year, also surpassing expectations [6] - The October Richmond Fed manufacturing index increased by 13 points to -4, which was stronger than market expectations of a 5-point rise to -12 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is anticipated to reduce interest rates, influenced by lower-than-expected inflation data and a softer labor market, which may create favorable conditions for various investment areas [1][2]. Investment Areas - **Short-Term Bonds**: The iShares Short Treasury Bond ETF (SHV) is expected to benefit from the anticipated rate cuts, with an annual yield of 4.29%, making it an attractive option for investors [3]. - **Dividends**: The Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM) is highlighted as a solid investment during economic uncertainty, providing a steady income stream with an annual charge of 2.48% and 6 basis points in fees [4][5]. - **Homebuilding**: The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF (ITB) may see increased interest as lower mortgage rates could encourage more Americans to enter the housing market, with an annual yield of 0.55% and 38 basis points in fees [6]. - **Growth Stocks**: The SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 Growth ETF (SPYG) is positioned to perform well in a low-rate environment, as reduced borrowing costs can enhance company expansion and future earnings [7]. - **Auto Sector**: The First Trust S-Network Future Vehicles & Technology ETF (CARZ) could benefit from improved buyer sentiment due to lower rates, despite only modest reductions in monthly payments for consumers [8].

Market Events - The Federal Reserve will announce new interest rates tomorrow, and US President Donald Trump will meet with Premier Xi Jinping the following day, both of which are expected to impact the BTC USD price [1] - The BTC USD price is currently around $114,000 to $115,000, reflecting a +6% increase over the past week, with potential for further gains following a recovery from October 23 [2] Trader Sentiment - Most traders are currently bullish, as indicated by a long/short ratio above 1 on major exchanges like Binance and OKX, suggesting more leveraged buy positions than shorts [3] - An expanding long/short ratio and significant inflow to spot Bitcoin exchanges, with over $120 million in Bitcoin purchased in the last eight hours, indicate positive market sentiment [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a +97% probability of a rate cut to the +3.75% to +4% range, with expectations that the central bank will cut rates for the second time this year [5] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data, particularly inflation and labor market conditions, with job growth slowing to 22,000 in August, the weakest since 2010 [6] - Inflation has eased slightly, with core PCE at +2.7%, above the +2% benchmark, influenced by tariffs and reduced immigration, while lower demand for goods is helping to create balance [7] Rate Cut Expectations - There is speculation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more aggressive stance on rate cuts, with some governors advocating for a +0.50% reduction [8]

Market Overview - European stocks are expected to open flat to higher, with the U.K.'s FTSE index slightly up, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 down by 0.2%, and Italy's FTSE MIB just below the flatline [1] Federal Reserve Meeting - The U.S. Federal Reserve's two-day meeting begins on Tuesday, with a 96% chance of a 25 basis-point rate cut anticipated by the market [2] - Traders are looking for signals from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding another potential rate cut at the final meeting of the year in December due to concerns about a weakening labor market [2] Economic Data and Geopolitical Concerns - The Fed is facing an economic data blackout due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, with limited recent data available, including last week's inflation report [3] - Geopolitical issues, particularly the U.S.-China trade dispute, are also significant for investors, with a meeting scheduled between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in South Korea to address trade tensions [3] Trade Negotiations - Both the U.S. and China appear to be in a conciliatory mood, having agreed on a framework for a potential trade deal that includes topics such as rare earths export restrictions, soybean purchases, and TikTok [4] - President Trump expressed optimism about reaching a deal with President Xi during their upcoming meeting at the APEC Summit [4] Earnings Reports - Key earnings reports in Europe on Tuesday include Novartis, BNP Paribas, Capgemini, Air Liquide, Iberdrola, ASM International, and Logitech [5] - HSBC, Europe's largest lender, reported third-quarter profits that exceeded expectations [5]

Group 1 - US stock futures are stabilizing after reaching new record highs, with major indices like the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq hovering around flat lines as investors assess President Trump's trade actions in Japan [1][2] - The S&P 500 closed above 6,800 for the first time, reflecting rising optimism regarding a potential US-China trade deal [2] - Attention is focused on upcoming events including Big Tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate decision, and a meeting between President Trump and China's President Xi [2][3] Group 2 - President Trump signed trade deals in Japan, emphasizing military spending and support for Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi [3] - The Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting is underway, with markets anticipating a second interest-rate cut and looking for insights from Chair Jerome Powell regarding future rate cuts [3] - Earnings reports from major companies such as Visa, UnitedHealth Group, and PayPal are expected, with significant attention on upcoming results from major tech firms including Alphabet, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [4]