Cryptocurrency Valuation - Ethereum (ETH) 的主要用例在很大程度上独立于其市场价值，ETH 的效用和应用收入与 ETH 价格之间的关联性很小 [1] - Bitcoin (BTC) 的主要用例是作为价值存储，这与其价格密切相关 [1] - Bitcoin 的基本设计更适合价值存储用例，而 ETH 必须依赖于与价格关联性较差的其他用例 [1] Comparative Analysis - Ethereum 的估值存在根本性问题，因为其用例与 ETH 的市场价值关联较弱 [1] - Bitcoin 作为价值储存手段的特性，使其价格与基本设计高度契合 [1]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is underestimating the strength of the economy and setting low expectations for S&P 500 earnings growth, which is projected to slow to 6% in Q3 from 11% in Q2, but Goldman Sachs anticipates earnings growth will exceed these forecasts due to stronger sales and positive surprises from the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks [2][3][10]. Earnings Growth Expectations - Analysts predict that S&P 500 earnings growth will be lower than expected, with a consensus of 6% growth for Q3, down from 11% in Q2 [2][10]. - Goldman Sachs analysts believe that earnings growth will surpass this forecast, driven by stronger sales growth and the performance of the Magnificent 7 [3][5]. Economic Indicators - Goldman economists estimate that GDP grew by 2% in Q3, consistent with Q2 growth, despite Wall Street's conservative view of real sales growth slowing to 1% from 2.5% [5]. - The stabilization of the U.S. dollar in Q3 may have impacted sales growth, as the dollar's decline in the first half of the year had previously boosted international sales for S&P 500 companies [6]. Performance of the Magnificent 7 - The Magnificent 7, a group of major tech companies, is expected to drive earnings growth, although analysts forecast their earnings growth to be half as fast in Q3 compared to Q2 [7]. - Historically, the Magnificent 7 has exceeded expectations, suggesting potential for positive surprises in the current earnings season [7]. Analyst Sentiment - For the first time since Q4 2021, analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings per share estimates by 0.1% during Q3, indicating increased confidence in earnings [9][10]. - Despite the overall optimism, Kostin warns that expectations for earnings revisions may be more modest this quarter due to a lack of significant changes in the economic outlook [11]. Tariff Impact - Tariffs are expected to pose a greater challenge for earnings this quarter, with customs duties totaling $93 billion, a 33% increase from Q2 [12]. - Corporate profit margins are likely to remain stable due to strategies like supplier changes and cost cuts, but substantial margin expansion in Q3 appears unlikely [12].

Let's welcome in now Ed Yardeni. He's the president of Yardeni Research with me once again at Post Nights. Good to see you.>> My pleasure. >> Um on that issue, you say we're not seeing a bubble, but rather a bubble and bubble fears. >> Well, right now we got a bubble and bubble fears, but there are clearly elements of a bubble of a real bubble.I mean, the mult the forward PE of the S&P 500 I is about 23 right now. And uh back during the tech bubble of the late 1990s, early 2000s, we got to 25. uh the the Bu ...

Core Insights - Micron Technology, Inc. reported its fiscal Q4 results, leading to a significant stock price increase from approximately $167 to around $197, representing a gain of over 18% [1] Financial Performance - The stock performance post-earnings report indicates strong investor confidence and market reaction to the company's financial results [1] Market Position - The increase in stock price reflects positive sentiment towards Micron's business model and competitive positioning within the semiconductor industry [1]

Core Insights - Nike has experienced an 11% decline over the past year, underperforming the S&P 500's 17% increase, despite a slight revenue surprise in the most recent quarter [2] - Historical performance indicates that Nike's stock is vulnerable during economic downturns, with significant drops observed during the inflation crisis of 2022 and the onset of COVID-19 [3] - Current challenges include weak revenue growth, squeezed profit margins, and a high valuation, raising concerns about potential further declines in stock price [4] Revenue Performance - Over the past three years, Nike's revenue has stagnated with an average decrease of 0.3%, and a 7% drop in the last twelve months from $50 billion to $46 billion [5] - In Q1 FY 2026, revenue increased by only 1% to $11.72 billion, primarily due to wholesale gains and a 4% rise in North America [5] - Direct-to-consumer sales fell by 4% to $4.5 billion, with Converse down 27% and Greater China experiencing a 9% decline [6] Margin Challenges - Nike's operating margins were 7.4% and net margins were 6.2%, significantly lower than the S&P 500 averages [9] - Gross margin decreased by 3.2 points to 42.2% in Q1 FY 2026, with net income falling 31% to $727 million [9] - Ongoing pressures from discounting, rising expenses, and competition are expected to continue affecting margins throughout fiscal 2026 [10][11] Valuation Concerns - Nike shares are currently trading around $74 with a P/E ratio of 38.2, which is above its historical average of 28x and the S&P 500's 24x [12] - If earnings per share (EPS) remains steady at $1.95 but the P/E ratio drops to 19-20x, the stock could fall to approximately $37, indicating a potential 50% decline [13] - A further decline in margins and revenues could lead to an EPS decrease of 15-20%, potentially dropping the stock to $31-$32, representing a 57-58% decline [13] Strategic Outlook - Despite being a strong global brand, Nike faces a pivotal moment with early signs of stabilization amid ongoing margin pressures and macroeconomic risks [14] - Successful execution of strategic initiatives is critical for the company's long-term performance and recovery [14]

Stablecoin issuers are eyeing outsize valuations as they go to battle with juggernauts. https://t.co/W4huyVPSn4 ...

Terminal value (TV) determines a company's value into perpetuity beyond a forecast period. https://t.co/ve9Iy9u89T ...

Core Insights - CleanSpark, Inc. is considered one of the most undervalued financial stocks according to Wall Street analysts [1] - JPMorgan downgraded CleanSpark from "Overweight" to "Neutral" and lowered its price target from $15 to $14 due to valuation concerns [1][2] Company Overview - CleanSpark is a bitcoin mining company that builds, owns, and operates data centers utilizing low-cost, sustainable energy sources [3] - The company operates at a capacity of 50 EH/s, ranking it among the four largest publicly listed bitcoin miners [2] Financial Performance - CleanSpark has a market capitalization of $3.85 billion and has demonstrated an impressive revenue growth of 84.7% over the past twelve months [2] - The company maintains a strong financial position with a current ratio of 4.37, indicating good liquidity [2] Analyst Perspective - JPMorgan views CleanSpark as a "well capitalized, best-in-class operator with M&A expertise" [2] - The downgrade was primarily based on valuation rather than operational issues, with analysts suggesting a more favorable outlook on a price pullback [2]

Valuation Analysis - Plasma 的估值最初基于其与 Tether 的关联性 [1] - 市场可能高估了 Plasma 将这种关联性货币化的能力，目前估值已达 100 亿美元 [1] - 评估 Plasma 的合理方式是参考可比协议，例如 TRX、ENA 和 ETHFI [1] Strategic Direction - Plasma 的未来成功，不依赖于与 Tether 的紧密关系，甚至不依赖于区块链 [1] - Plasma 最佳的发展路径是构建一家新型银行 (neobank) [1]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands, Inc. is expected to report a decline in both revenue and earnings for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, with earnings estimated at $3.37 per share, reflecting a 21.9% decrease year-over-year, and revenues projected at $2.5 billion, down 15.8% from the previous year [1][2][10] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings has decreased by 16.4% over the past 30 days, indicating a negative trend in expectations [2] - In the last reported quarter, Constellation Brands experienced a negative earnings surprise of 3.6%, although it has beaten estimates by an average of 3.6% over the trailing four quarters [3] Earnings Prediction Model - The current Earnings ESP for Constellation Brands is 0.0%, and it holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), suggesting low odds for an earnings beat this quarter [4] Key Growth Drivers - The beer portfolio, particularly brands like Modelo, Corona, and Pacifico, is identified as the main growth driver, supported by strong brand health and consumer loyalty, especially among Hispanic buyers [5] - The wine and spirits segment is expected to contribute modestly due to improved shipment volumes and international expansion, particularly in Canada [6] Operational Factors - Cost-saving initiatives and capacity expansions in Mexico are critical for operational efficiency, although upcoming tariffs on aluminum are anticipated to create a $20 million headwind this fiscal year [7] - Elevated marketing expenditures are aimed at maintaining market share and brand loyalty in a competitive environment [7] External Pressures - Consumer caution due to inflation and reduced discretionary spending is impacting beer consumption, particularly among Hispanic households [8] - Macroeconomic uncertainties and regional factors, such as California's recovery from wildfires, may influence performance in the upcoming quarter [8] Valuation Perspective - Constellation Brands is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 11.55X, which is below its five-year high of 23.57X and the industry average of 13.84X, indicating potential value for investors [11] - The stock has declined by 42.8% over the past year, compared to a 21.6% decline in the industry [12]