Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the current market environment, monetary policy, and economic conditions in China, with a focus on interest rates and their implications for investment strategies. Core Points and Arguments - The current market environment shows similarities to Q2 2019, particularly in terms of fundamentals and US-China relations, leading to a medium-term bullish outlook despite potential short-term volatility [2][3][4] - The central bank is adopting a macro-prudential stance, indicating that there will not be rapid interest rate cuts or hikes in the short term, which could lead to upward pressure on rates if fiscal policies are not aligned [3][10][12] - Credit supply is shifting from being supply-constrained to demand-constrained, necessitating a sequence of fiscal expansion before monetary easing to avoid idle capital [3][13] - The likelihood of a comprehensive interest rate cut in April is low, but a reduction in reserve requirements is more probable, with short-term rate declines being difficult unless unexpected events occur [3][16] - The current interest rate rebound is limited, and significant policy changes are required to see a notable increase in rates, with a potential for a volatile market in Q2 [7][15] - The experience from Q2 2022 suggests that a wait-and-see approach can lead to greater economic losses, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to mitigate risks [8][9] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The central bank's lack of coordination with fiscal policy during the first quarter has led to a situation where increased government bond issuance has not been matched by monetary easing, resulting in higher rates that could suppress consumption and investment [10][12] - The current geopolitical climate, particularly the challenges in US-China relations, mirrors the uncertainties faced during the pandemic, which could impact market stability and investor sentiment [6][8] - Investors are advised against large-scale duration management or reversal strategies in the current volatile environment, suggesting a focus on gradual adjustments and identifying buying opportunities [11][16] - The historical context of policy responses during previous economic disruptions provides valuable insights for navigating the current market landscape, highlighting the importance of timely interventions [8][14]

第六， 本轮货币政策仍存在宽松空间，最快二季度可能落地降准。一则政府工作报告、一季度货币政策委员 会例会仍强调适时降准降息；二则外需正继续受全球贸易环境影响，需政策更积极对冲扩内需，经验上每一轮 出口下行周期均对应总量宽松周期。 2021 年以来降准间隔时点大约在 3-8 个月，上一轮降准在 2024 年 9 月末，以 3-8 月外推，今年二季度可能会有一轮降准。但需注意的是，降准主要目的是为银行补充中长期 流动性，缓解银行扩表支持实体经济的流动性约束，打开实体融资成本下降空间，进而稳定信用环境，不一定 会带来狭义流动性中枢的变化。事实上， 2021 年以来的降准，大部分都未改变 DR007 中枢。对于利率而 言，可能更重要的是降息（预期），而这一点在内外均衡、银行息差等约束下，时间窗口并不明朗。 第七， 然后是经济基本面。在前期报告《修复结构性失衡》中，我们曾介绍了一个利率定价框架：利率本质 上是高融资需求部门的价格，建筑业景气度在很大程度上决定利率走势。 2016 年四季度、 2020 年二季度 利率趋势反转，除名义增长确认底部外，更重要的是还伴随着建筑业景气度、实体融资需求的修复。本轮建筑 业在去年四季 ...