丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 预计基本面对债市定价权逐步抬升 ——9 月 PMI 点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 9 月制造业 PMI 环比增长 0.4pct 至 49.8%，略超预期但仍位于荣枯线以下，非制造业 PMI 回落 0.3pct 至 50.0%。供需关系仍需优化，生产是否"前置"有待观察。外需保持稳定、内需 恢复相对缓慢，"主要原材料购进价格-出厂价格"差值继续走阔，企业利润修复或承压。小型 企业景气度明显回升，新兴制造行业景气度改善。服务业景气度回落，建筑业改善但仍处相对 低位。PMI 修复的持续性有待观察，数据公布当日债市对基本面进一步定价，我们预计随着基 本面对债市的定价权逐步抬升，四季度债市表现或将好于三季度。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 事件评论 风险提示 1、经济基本面变化超预期；2、物价变化超预期；3、货币政策不及预期。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Ti ...

具体来看，袁闯表示，一是政策支持条件已充分具备，其力度与决心尤为突出。无论是围绕新质生产力 的产业政策顶层设计，还是资本市场的深化改革举措，都显示出明确的政策导向，为市场构筑了坚实的 政策底，提供了明确的方向性指引。二是整体估值既反映市场对未来增长的乐观预期，也对业绩兑现提 出更高要求。三是外部流动性出现积极变化。美联储降息后，全球流动性收紧压力缓解、美元强势弱 化。这有助于缓解中美利差倒挂压力、支撑人民币汇率，或引导外资回流新兴市场，利好A股尤其利率 敏感的科技成长板块。四是当前经济处于弱修复轨道，社会有效需求仍需提振，企业盈利能否实现从局 部到全局的、具有持续性的回升，是市场信心的根本来源。 袁闯认为，综合来看，当前A股外部约束减轻、内部政策积极，结构性行情有望延续，但全面系统性行 情的开启，仍有待经济基本面提供更强劲、更广泛的盈利增长作为核心驱动力。投资者应保持耐心，重 点关注经济复苏的强度与企业盈利改善的可持续性，这两大因素的明朗化将是市场迈向更广阔空间的决 定性因素。 日前，财信证券首席经济学家、研究发展中心总经理袁闯在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，回顾历 史，A股行情启动主要依赖流动性宽松、经济改 ...

股指期货全景日报 2025/9/30 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | IF主力合约（2512） IH主力合约（2512） | 4618.0 2989.0 | +9.2↑ IF次主力合约（2510） +3.6↑ IH次主力合约（2510） | 4634.4 2988.6 | +8.2↑ +3.2↑ | | | IC主力合约（2512） | 7290.4 | +79.8↑ IC次主力合约（2510） | 7398.4 | +70.2↑ | | | IM主力合约（2512） | 7406.2 | +89.4↑ IM次主力合约（2510） | 7556.6 | +87.0↑ | | | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1645.8 | -3.8↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 2764.0 | +44.8↑ | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 158.2 | +16.8↑ IC-IH当月合约价差 | 4409.8 | +41.0↑ | | | IM-IF当月合约价差 | 292 ...

广发证券首席经济学家 郭磊 guolei@gf.com.cn 摘要 第一， 长江商学院BCI指数在6-8月连续放缓后，9月出现跃升 （图1） ，从前值的46.9回升至51.1，表现略超预 期。我们理解这可能是环比同比共同作用的结果。BCI是一个兼具环同比特征的指标，企业会被询问在销售、利润、 库存等经营指标上，未来6个月与去年同期相比如何变化。从环比来看，9月是工业旺季，8月以来稳增长也有所升 温；从同比来看，去年9月恰是景气低点。一个启示是今年9月工增等经济数据可能在同比也具有一定优势。 第二， BCI销售前瞻指数、利润前瞻指数环比分别上行13.9、7.2个点，"秋旺"的季节性特征初步呈现。回看数据， 企业销售预期的年内低点是8月，匹配同期需求端投资加速下行，"两新"、出口均有所放缓。9月回升或来自广义财 政带动有所增强。在报告《资产重估行至当下：约束与动能》中，我们指出建设项目资金到位率中房建止跌回升，非 房建持续改善，实物工作量中沥青开工率回升，或与新型政策性金融工具即将下达有关。 第三， 两个价格指数也均有上行，消费品价格预期较中间品改善幅度更明显，这意味着在企业眼中，未来消费品价 格会有所好转。这一 ...

Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views - The bond market performed poorly in Q3 due to multiple factors, including policy - induced macro - narrative reversals, a decline in the bond market's profit - making effect, and regulatory - induced redemptions of bond funds. As Q4 approaches, historical experience shows that interest rates are more likely to decline in Q4. The report explores possible paths for bond market sentiment repair [6][9]. - The market has reached a consensus on a weak present but improving future for the fundamentals and continuous loosening of the capital market. Thus, poor Q4 fundamental data and loose capital cannot significantly drive down bond market interest rates [6][12]. - Central bank actions are still crucial. The deviation between the capital market and bond market interest rates is due to large government bond issuances. If the supply of interest - rate bonds increases in Q4, the central bank is expected to strengthen monetary policy. Observing changes in central bank monetary policy or a downward - guiding of inter - bank interest rates may be a path for bond market sentiment repair [6][13][16]. - Attention should be paid to the end of the withdrawal of trading funds. The bond market adjustment caused by regulatory policies on funds is more of a frictional effect. In the long run, funds are likely to return to the bond market. Monitoring regulatory rhythms, institutional responses, and the profit - taking progress of Q3 short - sellers in Q4 is advisable [6][17]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Weekly View: Possible Paths for Bond Market Sentiment Repair - Q3 bond market performance was poor, affected by policies, the equity market, and regulatory factors. Institutions' behaviors changed, with insurance institutions not eager to allocate and funds having a bad experience in "bottom - fishing". Entering Q4, the report explores paths for bond market sentiment repair [9]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: September PMI Data to be Released 2.1 Domestic PMI Data Release - This week, China will release September PMI data, and the US will release September ADP employment figures and other data [18]. 2.2 This Week's Decline in Interest - Rate Bond Issuance - The issuance scale of interest - rate bonds this week has seasonally declined to a low level, with a planned total issuance of 107.2 billion. There are no plans to issue treasury bonds and policy - financial bonds this week. 33 local bonds are planned to be issued, with a scale of 107.2 billion [21][22][23]. 3. Interest - Rate Bond Review and Outlook: High Bond Market Volatility 3.1 14 - Day Reverse Repurchase at the End of the Quarter - Near the end of the quarter, the central bank carried out 14 - day reverse repurchases. After a 30 - billion - yuan injection on Monday and no further operations in the middle of the week, a 60 - billion - yuan injection on Friday eased capital fluctuations. The net injection of open - market operations totaled 88.06 billion. Capital prices first rose and then fell. Repurchase trading volume also rose and then fell, with an average of about 7.27 trillion per week. Overnight ratios decreased. DR001 and DR007 first rose and then fell. The issuance of negotiable certificates of deposit remained at a relatively high level, with high prices. The net financing was - 17.83 billion. The 9 - month and 1 - year maturities accounted for about 44%. Secondary selling pressure was high, and last week's CD interest rates rose to a high level [27][29][35]. 3.2 Continued High Bond Market Volatility - The bond market continued to be highly volatile. At the beginning of the week, the expectation of increased monetary easing was disappointed, and multiple negative factors led to a large - scale bond market adjustment. In the second half of the week, the central bank increased the injection of medium - and long - term liquidity and 14 - day reverse repurchases, easing capital pressure and leading to bond market repair. The yields of 10Y treasury bonds and CDB active bonds changed by 0.4bp and 2bp to 1.8% and 1.96% respectively compared to last week. The yields of interest - rate bonds of various maturities mainly rose, especially those of policy - financial bonds. The 5Y Export - Import Bank bond had the largest increase, rising 4.8bp [48]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Improvement in Automobile Sales and Commodity Housing Transaction Data - On the production side, the operating rates were divided. The daily average crude steel production in early September had a year - on - year growth rate of 1.6%, turning positive from negative. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales improved. The year - on - year growth rate of the commodity housing transaction area turned positive. The SCFI and CCFI composite indices changed by - 7% and - 2.9% respectively. - On the price side, crude oil prices rose, copper and aluminum prices diverged, and the settlement price of the coking coal active contract futures changed by - 0.1%. In the mid - stream, the building materials composite price index changed by 0.5%, the cement index by 2.4%, and the glass index by 3%. The output of rebar was basically flat, the inventory decreased to 4.72 million tons, and the futures price changed by - 0.6%. In the downstream consumer sector, vegetable, fruit, and pork prices changed by 2%, 1.6%, and - 0.3% respectively [55][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - A-share major indices closed generally higher with performance divergence, large-cap blue-chip stocks outperformed small and mid-cap stocks. The market is in a random walk state this week with less macro data and fewer disturbances from domestic and overseas news. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, market trading is relatively dull. The previously announced economic data shows that the economy in August was still under pressure, and the real estate had an obvious drag on fixed investment. The marginal weakening of the "trade-in" policy also put pressure on social retail sales. It is necessary to wait for further policy efforts. Although Powell's hawkish remarks put short-term pressure on the RMB, the dot plot shows that there will be two more interest rate cuts this year, and the subsequent depreciation pressure on the RMB is expected to ease, which will also provide space for domestic policy easing. The market is expected to remain volatile before the policy is implemented. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - IF main contract (2512) was at 4562.2, up 39.6; IF sub-main contract (2510) was at 4585.0, up 37.8. IH main contract (2512) was at 2953.6, up 15.4; IH sub-main contract (2510) was at 2953.8, up 14.6. IC main contract (2512) was at 7166.6, up 30.8; IC sub-main contract (2510) was at 7293.2, up 32.8. IM main contract (2512) was at 7281.8, down 6.6; IM sub-main contract (2510) was at 7444.6, down 10.2. There were also changes in various spreads and differences between different quarters and the current month [2] 3.2 Futures Positions - IF's top 20 net positions were -28,681.00, down 261.0; IH's top 20 net positions were -17,213.00, up 845.0. IC's top 20 net positions were -25,724.00, down 719.0; IM's top 20 net positions were -40,023.00, down 1530.0 [2] 3.3 Spot Prices - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was at 4593.49, up 27.4; the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 was at 2952.7, up 13.2. The CSI 500 was at 7341.3, up 17.6; the CSI 1000 was at 7506.5, down 27.7. There were also corresponding changes in the basis of each main contract [2] 3.4 Market Sentiment - A-share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) was 23,917.71, up 446.16; margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 24,311.05, up 143.17. Northbound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) was 2861.33, down 384.30. There were also changes in reverse repurchase, main funds, MLF, the proportion of rising stocks, Shibor, option prices and implied volatilities, and various ratios [2] 3.5 Wind Market Strength and Weakness Analysis - All A-shares were at 4.40, down 3.40; the technical aspect was at 2.70, down 5.50. The capital aspect was at 6.00, down 1.40 [2] 3.6 Industry News - On September 22, the loan prime rate (LPR) was announced, with the 1-year LPR at 3.0% and the 5-year and above LPR at 3.5%. At the press conference, the CSRC Chairman Wu Qing introduced that the "science" content of the capital market has been further improved, and the market value of the A-share technology sector currently accounts for more than 1/4. As of the end of August, various medium and long-term funds held about 21.4 trillion yuan of the A-share floating market value, a 32% increase compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan", and foreign investors held 3.4 trillion yuan of A-share market value [2]

记者 王珍 长江商学院会计与金融学教授、投资研究中心主任刘劲周二表示，近一年以来A股的上涨说明至少一部分投资者的信心有所回暖，但长期的牛市需要基本面 的强劲支撑。 长江商学院当天发布的最新一期《投资者情绪调查报告》显示，2025年9月，认为A股会上涨的投资者占受访者的比例约为63.1%，比2025年4月提高1.6个百 分点，比2024年7月提高15.6个百分点。当前，受访投资者对A股的预期回报率约为1.6%，比2025年4月提高1个百分点，比2024年7月提高5.6个百分点。 刘劲表示，本轮A股估值修复主要受到三大因素的推动。首先是政策层面，自去年四季度以来，央行多次释放流动性，为股市走强创造了有利环境。2024年 9月与2025年5月，央行分别下调金融机构存款准备金率0.5个百分点，两次降准合计释放资金约2万亿元。Wind统计显示，今年前8个月，央行通过公开市场 操作净投放资金约1.6万亿元。此外，2024年9月和2025年1月，央行联合其他五部门出台相关政策，明确提出要引导和推动保险资金、社保基金、养老金、 公募基金等中长期资金加大对股市的配置力度。 财政政策方面，刘劲指出，近年来我国财政赤字保持在较高水 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market showed strong performance in the week of September 8-12, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 3.8% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 5.3% [3] - A significant inflow of capital was observed, with net purchases from mainland investors through the "Hong Kong Stock Connect" reaching 60.8 billion HKD, nearly double the previous week [3] - The expectation of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, driven by a rise in initial jobless claims to 263,000, has led to increased liquidity in the market, making Hong Kong stocks an attractive investment target [3][6] Group 2 - The rise in the Hong Kong market is attributed to three main factors: external liquidity easing, recovery of the Chinese mainland economy, and supportive local policies in Hong Kong [7] - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in mainland China rose to 0.9% year-on-year in August, indicating a revival of domestic consumption and supporting the earnings outlook for Chinese companies listed in Hong Kong [6] Group 3 - In Southeast Asia, currency markets displayed a mixed performance, with the Thai Baht strengthening due to rising gold prices, while the Philippine Peso depreciated due to inflationary pressures from rising oil prices [9] - The differing currency movements among Southeast Asian nations highlight the impact of each country's economic structure and fundamentals, rather than solely the influence of the US dollar [11] Group 4 - Gold and oil prices have become focal points in the market, with gold representing a safe-haven asset amid recession fears, while oil prices indicate inflationary pressures [13] - The market's expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, benefiting its price, while also raising concerns about inflation that support oil prices [13][15] Group 5 - The interplay of geopolitical uncertainties, such as US-China tariff negotiations, has heightened market demand for safe-haven assets and concerns over supply chain disruptions [15] - The performance of the Hong Kong stock market is influenced by global liquidity, the economic fundamentals of China, and supportive policies in Hong Kong, while the divergence in Southeast Asian currencies reveals the underlying economic strengths of each country [15]

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 马玮健 SAC：S0490524080003 SFC：BVN394 丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 基本面对债市的定价权在边际提升 ——8 月经济数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 今年 8 月经济数据整体偏弱，工业增加值、社零、固投同比增速回落。生产放缓，主因出口和 下游消费拖累；投资端，三大领域投资增速均趋缓，民间投资同比增速延续回落，商品房销售 以价换量或仍持续，装备制造业投资增速多数明显下滑；消费端不及预期，主要受耐用品消费 回落的影响，一方面三季度国补额度回落，另一方面上半年可能已经透支了部分耐用品换新需 求。 经济数据发布前后债市走出一段修复行情，8 月经济基本面供需两端承压，考虑到去年四 季度的基数偏高，今年四季度经济预计同比读数面临压力，基本面对债市的定价权在边际提升。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 基本面对债市的定价权在边际提升 2] ——8 月经济数据点评 [Table_Summary2] 事件描 ...

展望"十五五"，虽然很多成熟产业和夕阳产业面临转型压力，但科技革命带来的经济增长正为长期牛市 注入核心动力。 这一增长将以股价和指数上涨的方式实现。 对中国资本市场而言，2024年9月24日是一个真正的"分水岭"，其意义应超过1999年的"5·19"与2005年 股权分置改革。自此以后，人们普遍认为长期牛市已上升为国家意志，资本市场也被正式纳入宏观调 控。 如今，中国资本市场牛市格局基本形成，但深层次问题依然存在：长期牛市需要什么样的经济基本面和 货币流动性环境支持？需要怎样的监管环境和社会认知环境？如何让"中国牛"跨越"十四五"、穿越"十 五五"？ "十五五"牛市的经济基本面条件 任何国家的资本市场牛市都不能脱离经济基本面，但是我们不能简单把支持牛市的经济基本面等同于 GDP高增长。 有的增长模式，虽然GDP增速很快，但是大部分增长成果与资本市场无关。还有的增长模式，甚至以牺 牲资本市场投资者为代价。这样的经济基本面，就算增长数字再好看，也不会带来长期牛市。 有的经济体，虽然GDP增速不高，但其大部分增长成果能转变为投资者回报，自然能够有牛市。 除了宽松的货币流动性，利率也在不断下降，中国应继续大幅降息并认 ...