1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are prominent opportunities in credit bonds [1][107]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Historically, inflation, overheating or recovery of the economy, and tightening of monetary policy are the main reasons for the significant bearish trend in the bond market. Currently, the probability of a significant bearish trend in the bond market is low. The bond market is more likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the next 1 - 2 years [1]. - The signals before the inflection point of the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market are weakening. In the future, nominal GDP growth rate, PPI year - on - year growth rate, and institutional behavior (regulatory policies) may be key indicators and signals. CPI recovery is neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition [1][92]. - The current bond market does not have the conditions for a significant bearish trend. The reasons include the low probability of significant tightening of monetary policy this year, weak economic repair momentum, a loose capital situation, uncertain effects of anti - involution policies, and limited external negative pressure on the bond market [1][106]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Characteristics of Past Bond Bear Markets - **2007 - 2008**: Due to overheating of the economy and high inflation pressure, the central bank continuously raised interest rates, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3% to 4.5%. After the global financial crisis in the second half of 2008, the policy turned to easing [5]. - **2010 - 2011**: After the "Four - Trillion" stimulus plan, inflation pressure climbed again. The central bank implemented tightening policies, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.2% to 4.1% [8]. - **2013**: Due to the "Money Shortage" and financial supervision, there was a liquidity crisis. The central bank tightened liquidity, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 3.4% to 4.6% [9][10]. - **2016 - 2017**: With strong financial supervision, supply - side reform, and shantytown renovation monetization, the central bank tightened monetary policy, and the 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.7% to 3.9% [11]. - **2020**: After the public health event, the economy recovered, and the policy gradually returned to normal. The 10 - year Treasury yield started to rise in late April [15]. - **2022**: The end of the public health event increased the market's expectation of economic recovery, and there was a negative feedback from bank wealth management. The 10 - year Treasury yield rose from 2.6% to 2.9% [19][21]. - **Common Characteristics**: Policy drive (tightening of monetary policy and strengthening of financial supervision), economic cycle correlation (the bond market is prone to a bearish trend when the macro - economy is improving and inflation is rising), and capital trends (capital is the link between policy and the market) [22][23][24]. 3.2. Inflection Points of Past Bull - to - Bear Transitions in the Bond Market - **2007 - 2008**: The inflection point occurred on January 17, 2007. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the fundamentals improved significantly, and inflation pressure increased [24][27][28]. - **2010 - 2011**: The inflection point occurred on July 14, 2010. Before the inflection point, the monetary policy had turned to tightening, the capital was tightened, the economy recovered rapidly, and CPI and PPI had been rising [36][38][40]. - **2013**: The inflection point occurred on April 16, 2013. Before the inflection point, there was a sign of capital tightening, the economy showed a co - existence of recovery and inflation pressure, and the central bank tightened liquidity [45][49][50]. - **2016 - 2017**: The inflection point occurred on October 21, 2016. Before the inflection point, there was no obvious sign of capital tightening, the economy was relatively stable, CPI was not obvious, and PPI rose significantly [53][57][60]. - **2020**: The inflection point occurred on April 8, 2020. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy recovered simultaneously with the bearish trend, CPI was not obvious, and PPI was more obvious [63][66][67]. - **2022**: The inflection point occurred in August 2022. Before the inflection point, there was no sign of capital tightening, the economy had a pre - recovery trend, and CPI and PPI were not obvious [74][77][78]. 3.3. Reasons Why the Current Bond Market is Unlikely to Go Significantly Bearish - **Past Bull - to - Bear Inflection Point Signals**: Fundamental inflection points (leading or synchronous with the bull - to - bear inflection point), policy inflection points (monetary policy tightening), CPI or PPI recovery (PPI bottoming out 6 - 12 months before the bearish trend), and capital inflection points (yield bottom lags behind the capital bottom by an average of 2.5 months). In the future, these signals are weakening [83][85][87]. - **CPI Recovery is Neither Sufficient nor Necessary**: CPI recovery is not a sufficient or necessary condition for the bull - to - bear transition in the bond market. Cost - push inflation has limited impact on the bond market trend [95][96]. - **Current Situation Analysis**: The monetary policy is unlikely to tighten significantly this year. The economic repair momentum is weak, with low nominal GDP growth, negative GDP deflator, and declining PPI. The capital situation is loose, the "anti - involution" policy effect is uncertain, and the external environment has limited negative pressure on the bond market [97][100][105]. 3.4. Investment Analysis Opinions - In the short - term, the report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the 10 - year Treasury yield may return to around 1.65%. After the adjustment, there are opportunities in credit bonds, such as long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt. It is recommended to focus on the long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng banks, and be bullish on urban investment dim - sum bonds and US dollar bonds. Pay attention to the capital bonds of Beibu Gulf Bank, Tianjin Bank, and China Property Insurance [106][107].

Group 1 - The core idea emphasizes the importance of foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection, suggesting that solid fundamentals are crucial for successful investing [2] - The article discusses favorable conditions for the bond market, highlighting that weak economic fundamentals, such as low economic growth and low inflation, typically lead to declining market interest rates, which in turn increases bond prices [3] Group 2 - The content encourages readers to engage with a dedicated section on foundational knowledge, indicating a focus on educational resources for investors [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current inflation is likely to recover moderately, and the probability of the bond market turning bearish due to "anti-involution" is low [2][26] - Funds are expected to remain abundant for a long time, and the probability of the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to adjust above 1.75% is low. However, if it drops to the range of 1.6% - 1.65%, the bond market may face capital constraints [2][7] - In the second half of the year, the fundamentals may gradually become the unexpected main line of the bond market and may be beneficial to the bond market. It is recommended to allocate when the 10-year Treasury yield is above 1.7% [2][7] Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market Facing Adjustment Pressure - After experiencing significant fluctuations, rapid upswings, and rapid downswings, the bond market is facing adjustment pressure again. Since August, the bond market has been under obvious pressure, and there are still significant differences between the bulls and bears in the market [5][11] How the Bulls and Bears View the Impact of "Anti-Involution" on the Bond Market - **Bulls**: The "anti-involution" policy will be implemented in the context of high-quality development. The probability of re - introducing large - scale demand - stimulus policies is low. The impact on inflation and the bond market needs to be observed [7][14] - **Bears**: Even if the probability of short - term demand - side policies is low, rapid capacity restrictions can cause price increases. A small price recovery can trigger bond market adjustments, and subsequent price factors may be negative for the bond market [7][23] - **Our View**: "Anti-involution" has raised inflation expectations, but the inflation is likely to recover moderately, and the probability of the bond market turning bearish is low [7][26] How the Bulls and Bears View the Impact of Monetary Policy on the Bond Market - **Bulls**: In the second half of the year, the economy still faces pressure, and liquidity is likely to remain abundant. The restart of Treasury bond trading in the fourth quarter will directly benefit the bond market [7][27] - **Bears**: The moderate monetary easing has been reflected in bond prices. The bottom line of further easing is "fund idling." The central bank's interest rate cut and reserve requirement ratio cut space is limited this year, and the impact of subsequent Treasury bond trading on the bond market will be similar to that of repurchase [7][29] - **Our View**: Funds are expected to remain abundant for a long time, and the probability of the 10-year Treasury yield continuing to adjust above 1.75% is low. However, if it drops to 1.6% - 1.65%, the bond market may face capital constraints [7][34] How the Bulls and Bears View the Impact of Economic Fundamentals on the Bond Market - **Bulls**: The pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market has been weak, but attention should be paid to the downward pressure on fundamentals under the background of high real interest rates. Fundamentals may become the unexpected main line of the bond market in the next stage [7][35] - **Bears**: Treasury yields have priced in the pressure on fundamentals, and the bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes [7][45] - **Our View**: In the second half of the year, the pricing power of fundamentals on the bond market may increase marginally, and it may gradually become the unexpected main line of the bond market, which may be beneficial to the bond market [7][47]

Market Performance - The US stock market continued its upward trend, with all three major indices closing higher, particularly the technology sector, which saw significant gains [1][2] - The Nasdaq reached a record high of 21,464.53 points, closing up 0.98%, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 11% [1] - For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.35%, the S&P 500 increased by 2.43%, and the Nasdaq surged by 3.87%, indicating strong investor interest in growth and technology stocks [1] Market Sentiment and Influencing Factors - Market sentiment is driven by multiple factors, including ongoing earnings season, developments in Trump's tariff policies, and changes in Federal Reserve leadership [2] - Investors are balancing macroeconomic policies with corporate fundamentals while increasing their positions in core technology leaders, which supports the indices at high levels [2][3] Earnings Season and Investor Reactions - The earnings season has seen unprecedented scrutiny from investors, with over two-thirds of S&P 500 companies reporting, and those missing both earnings per share (EPS) and sales expectations experiencing an average stock price drop of 7.4% [7][8] - The market's "zero tolerance" reaction to earnings misses reflects high valuations and a low tolerance for any shortcomings [8][12] Internal Insider Activity - In July, less than one-third of S&P 500 companies saw insider buying, marking the lowest level since 2018, indicating executives' concerns about current valuations [12][14] - The ratio of insider buying to selling has dropped to about half of the long-term average, suggesting a cautious sentiment among those most familiar with their companies [12][14] Future Focus on Nvidia - Attention is shifting towards Nvidia's earnings report on August 27, with the company having seen its stock price rise over 85% since April [13] - Despite positive expectations for Nvidia's performance, there is a risk of short-term volatility due to profit-taking after significant gains [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic and corporate profit factors are rated as neutral. In July, the prosperity of the three major industry indices generally declined. Supply - side manufacturing saw a double - drop in production and demand. Externally, demand showed resilience, with a smaller decline in new export orders than new orders. Extreme weather and falling demand dragged down the production start - up rate. The "anti - involution" initiative was effective, alleviating low - price competition and boosting raw material and ex - factory prices, thus improving corporate business expectations. [3] - Macro - policy factors are rated as neutral - to - bullish. The Central Political Bureau Meeting on July 30 emphasized improving the implementation efficiency of existing policies, with relatively limited signals for new incremental aggregate policies. Market expectations for real - estate incremental policies were adjusted. Policy statements in the consumption and investment fields remained consistent. The "anti - involution" related wording was adjusted, which may reflect a change in policy focus. [3] - Overseas factors are rated as neutral. From July 28th to 29th, Sino - US representatives held the third round of economic and trade talks in Stockholm. Both sides had in - depth, candid, and constructive exchanges and would promote the extension of the suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs by the US and China's counter - measures. [3] - Liquidity factors are rated as bullish. As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. [3][32] - The investment view is to buy on dips. In the short term, as macro - level positives are gradually realized, the upward speed of stock indices may slow down, and market fluctuations and adjustments should be watched out for. In the long run, this year's futures index market has been more driven by valuation expansion, with relatively weak profit drivers. Currently, there is still support at the valuation level. For example, although the current price - to - earnings ratio of the CSI 300 has returned to the median, the ERP is still at a historically high level (74.25% quantile), and with Huijin's support for liquidity, valuation factors are expected to continue to play a role. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Market Review - Last week, the CSI 300 fell 1.75% to 4054.9; the SSE 50 fell 1.48% to 2754.1; the CSI 500 fell 1.37% to 6213.2; the CSI 1000 fell 0.54% to 6670.5. [5] - In terms of futures, the IF main contract of the CSI 300 fell 1.96%, the IH main contract of the SSE 50 fell 1.47%, the IC main contract of the CSI 500 fell 1.56%, and the IM main contract of the CSI 1000 fell 0.76%. [6] - Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, last week, Medicine and Biology (2.9%), Communication (2.5%), Media (1.1%), Electronics (0.3%), and Social Services (0.1%) led the gains, while Non - Ferrous Metals (- 4.6%), Real Estate (- 3.4%), Transportation (- 3.2%), Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry and Fishery (- 3%), and Power Equipment (- 2.6%) led the losses. [8] - In terms of trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures was 584321 lots, with a 7.33% change; SSE 50 futures was 290211 lots, with a 6.13% change; CSI 500 futures was 490539 lots, with a 7.75% change; CSI 1000 futures was 1086841 lots, with a 14.10% change. The open interest of CSI 300 futures was 261869 lots, with a 0.65% change; SSE 50 futures was 96900 lots, with a - 0.55% change; CSI 500 futures was 220244 lots, with a - 2.36% change; CSI 1000 futures was 338220 lots, with a 3.42% change. [12] - As of August 1st, the annualized discount of the current - month contract IF2508 was 7.8%; IH2508 was 0.12%; IC2508 was 19.97%; IM2508 was 20.98%. The annualized discount of the next - month contract IF2509 was 4.65%; IH2509 had an annualized premium of 0.07%; IC2509 was 13.09%; IM2509 was 14.26%. The annualized discount of the current - quarter contract IF2512 was 3.71%; IH2512 had an annualized premium of 0.21%; IC2512 was 10.75%; IM2512 was 12.17%. The annualized discount of the next - quarter contract IF2603 was 3.38%; IH2603 had an annualized premium of 0.18%; IC2603 was 9.77%; IM2603 was 11.47%. [16] - The spread between the CSI 300 and the SSE 50 closed at 1300.8, at the 84.1% historical quantile level; the spread between the CSI 1000 and the CSI 500 closed at 457.3, at the 65.8% historical quantile level. The ratio of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 33.3% historical quantile level; the ratio of the SSE 50 to the CSI 1000 was 0.6, at the 36% historical quantile level. [20] 3.2 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Liquidity - In terms of the money market and macro - liquidity, the central bank conducted 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market this week, with 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, resulting in a net injection of 6.9 billion yuan. Next week, 1663.2 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases will mature. [26] - As of July 31st, the A - share margin trading balance was 1978.5 billion yuan, an increase of 3.727 billion yuan from the previous week. The A - share margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11.5% of the total market turnover, at the 97.2% quantile level in the past decade. Last week, the daily trading volumes of A - shares were 1619.1 billion yuan, 1662.8 billion yuan, 1709.2 billion yuan, 1782.1 billion yuan, and 1466.6 billion yuan respectively, with an average daily trading volume 64.06 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of August 1st, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.92, at the 75.7% quantile level in the past decade. [32] 3.3 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profit - In terms of China's macro - economic indicators, in June 2025, GDP at constant prices was 5.2%, industrial added - value year - on - year was 6.8%, fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year was 2.8%, real - estate investment was - 11.2%, infrastructure investment was 4.6%, manufacturing investment was 7.5%, social consumer goods retail was 4.8%, the urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.0%, CPI was 0.1%, PPI was - 3.6%, the increment of social financing was not provided, the growth rate of social financing stock was 8.9%, new RMB loans were 2360 billion yuan, M1 was 4.6%, M2 was 8.3%, exports in US dollars were 5.9%, imports in US dollars were 1.1%, manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, and non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5%. [35] - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, a decrease of 0.4 from June; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, a decrease of 0.4 from June. Among them, new orders, new export orders, production, and other sub - indices all declined to varying degrees, while the production and operation activity expectation index increased by 0.6. [42] - In terms of the profitability of major broad - based indices, as of March 31, 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 was 3.32%, and the return on equity (ROE) was 9.75%; for the SSE 50, the net profit growth rate was - 0.19%, and ROE was 10.21%; for the CSI 500, the net profit growth rate was 7.39%, and ROE was 5.99%; for the CSI 1000, the net profit growth rate was 3.34%, and ROE was 5.12%. [47] 3.4 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Policy Drivers - A series of macro - policies have been introduced, including the Central Urban Work Conference held from July 14th to 15th, which pointed out that China's urbanization is shifting from a rapid growth stage to a stable development stage, and urban development is shifting from large - scale incremental expansion to stock quality improvement. The meeting deployed seven key tasks. [52] - The Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st emphasized governing low - price disorderly competition in enterprises and introduced a series of monetary policy measures. [53] - The State Council's press conference on May 7th announced a series of measures from quantitative, price - based, and structural monetary policies, such as reducing the deposit - reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and lowering policy interest rates. [53] 3.5 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Overseas Factors - In the United States, in July, the manufacturing PMI was 48%, a decrease of 1 percentage point from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI data was not fully provided, with a decrease of 50.8 percentage points from the previous value. The seasonally - adjusted unemployment rate was 4.2%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 73,000. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in July was 61.7, an increase of 1 from the previous value. [60][62] - In June, the year - on - year growth rate of PCE was 2.58%, and the core PCE was 2.79%; the year - on - year growth rate of CPI was 2.7%, and the core CPI was 2.9%. [63] - Trump's team has made a series of tariff - related statements and actions, including threatening to impose tariffs on imports from China, Canada, Mexico, and other countries, and implementing "reciprocal tariffs" policies, which have led to China's counter - measures. [69][71] 3.6 Factors Affecting Stock Indices - Valuation - As of August 1, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.1 times, 11.3 times, 30.2 times, and 41 times respectively, at the 65.4%, 79.5%, 71%, and 63.3% quantile levels in the past decade. [76]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of being oscillating and bearish, with attention on the stock-bond seesaw [5] Core Viewpoints - The stock-bond seesaw remains the main logic, with government bonds oscillating at a high level. The A-share market has risen strongly, putting continuous pressure on the bond market. The long-term bonds are under more pressure, while the short-term bonds are relatively stronger. The economic improvement trend is obvious, which is medium- to long-term negative for long-term bonds [2][3] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Market Review - The stock-bond seesaw logic has led to the long-term bond market effectively breaking below the 60-day moving average, and this logic may continue to dominate the bond market. Infrastructure investment may release signals of incremental policies before the Politburo meeting, which is negative for the bond market. The policy orientation of subsequent major infrastructure projects and the Politburo meeting in July are the keys to whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range [10] Chapter 2: Overview of Important News - The Ministry of Finance requires state-owned commercial insurance companies to improve asset-liability management. In June, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased year-on-year, but the decline narrowed. The LPR quote remained stable in July. China's Q2 GDP exceeded expectations. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved in June. Bank deposit rates continued to decline [12][14] Chapter 3: Analysis of Important Influencing Factors - **Economic Fundamentals**: China's Q2 GDP and June industrial added value exceeded expectations. The M2-M1 gap narrowed. The manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs improved. Although the economic data shows resilience, the downward pressure is still large, and counter-cyclical adjustment needs to be continuously strengthened [15] - **Policy Aspect**: In June 2025, the stock of social financing scale increased year-on-year. The M2-M1 gap narrowed [17] - **Funding Aspect**: Although the 7-day reverse repurchase rate has not changed much, the bond market interest rate and DR007 have decreased significantly. The funding is currently tight, which is negative for the bond market. With the weakening of exchange rate pressure, the expectation of further monetary easing may increase [19] - **Supply and Demand Aspect**: Last week, 16 provinces and cities issued a large number of local bonds, and the issuance of new special bonds accelerated. The funds for consumer goods replacement and special national bonds have been basically allocated, and the market is waiting for the effects and implementation of relevant policies [23] - **Sentiment Aspect**: The stock-bond ratio has broken through the short-term oscillation range, indicating that the market's attention to the stock market is greater than that to the bond market. If this ratio continues to decline, the bond market may break below the oscillation range and enter a downward trend [26] Chapter 4: Market Outlook and Investment Strategy - After the release of Q2 economic data, the market risk appetite has continued to recover, the stock market is strong, and the bond market is under pressure. Whether the bond market can break below the high-level oscillation range needs further observation. It is necessary to continuously track economic data and whether there are policies exceeding expectations [29]

Group 1 - The main focus is on the recent fluctuations in gold futures, with the Shanghai gold futures reporting a price of 776.50 yuan per gram, reflecting a decline of 0.98% [1] - The opening price for the day was 774.88 yuan per gram, with a recorded high of 779.24 yuan and a low of 774.32 yuan [1] Group 2 - Recent macroeconomic developments include President Trump's announcement of potential tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on various countries, alongside ongoing negotiations with the EU for lower tariffs [2] - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have been raised, with 36 out of 50 economists expressing worries about its autonomy [2] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary has indicated a non-urgent approach to the nomination of a new Federal Reserve Chair, with Trump stating he will not dismiss Powell [2] Group 3 - The market's risk appetite has improved due to accelerating negotiations on reciprocal tariffs, with recent employment and services PMI data showing resilience in the U.S. economy [3] - Despite short-term market volatility, the uncertainty surrounding tariffs and economic policies is expected to lead to inflationary pressures and economic slowdown, maintaining a high level of fluctuation in precious metals [3] - Key focus areas include the progress of tariff negotiations and the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting at the end of the month [3]

Economic Overview - The GDP growth rate for Q2 has slightly decreased from 5.4% in Q1 to 5.2%, indicating a stable yet high economic performance [1] - Nominal GDP growth has dropped from 4.6% in Q1 to 3.9% in Q2, reflecting weaker price levels [1] Investment and Consumption Trends - Fixed asset investment growth fell to -0.1% in June from 2.7% in May, with declines in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [2] - Real estate investment growth decreased by 12.9% year-on-year in June, while real estate sales area also saw a decline of 5.5% [2] - Retail sales growth for the first half of the year was around 5%, but June saw a drop to 4.8% from 6.4% in May, partly due to earlier consumption during the "618" shopping festival [2] Trade Performance - Export growth in June was strong at 5.8% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while imports grew by 1.1% [3] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs, particularly from the U.S., may impact future export performance [3][4] U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. experienced significant inventory accumulation in the first half of the year, which could lead to reduced import demand if domestic consumption weakens [4] - If U.S. consumer demand does not keep pace with import growth, it may result in inventory buildup and subsequent import declines [4] Policy and Economic Projections - The GDP growth target for the year remains at 5%, with a potential slowdown in the second half projected at around 4.7% [4] - The likelihood of strong policy stimulus in the second half is considered low, suggesting a more challenging economic environment [5] Investment Recommendations - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) is highlighted as a favorable investment option due to its low fees and higher coupon rates compared to shorter-duration bonds [5]

股指期货全景日报 2025/6/26 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | IF主力合约（2509） | 3904.2 | -9.0↓ IF次主力合约（2507） | 3920.8 | -7.8↓ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH主力合约（2509） | 2711.0 | -4.4↓ IH次主力合约（2507） | 2714.4 | -2.4↓ | IC主力合约（2509） | 5729.0 | -13.0↓ IC次主力合约（2507） | 5809.2 | -16.8↓ | | | | IM主力合约（2509） | 6097.8 | -3.6↓ IM次主力合约（2507） | 6211.8 | -16.0↓ | IF-IH当月合约价差 | 1206.4 | -4.0↓ IC-IF当月合约价差 | 1888.4 | -10.8↓ | | | | 期货盘面 | IM-IC当月合约价差 | 402.6 | -2.2↓ IC-IH当月合约价差 ...

Group 1 - International oil prices experienced a rebound on June 25, driven by a significant decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories, with WTI crude rising by $0.55 to $64.92 per barrel and Brent crude increasing by $0.54 to $67.68 per barrel [1] - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that commercial crude oil inventories fell by 5.8 million barrels to 415.1 million barrels, exceeding market expectations of a 797,000-barrel decline [1][2] - Gasoline and distillate inventories also saw declines of 2.1 million barrels and 4.1 million barrels, respectively, both below the five-year average by approximately 3% [1] Group 2 - The average daily crude oil processing volume at U.S. refineries increased by 125,000 barrels to 17 million barrels, with an average utilization rate of 94.7%, up from 93.2% the previous week [1] - The average daily gasoline supply rose by 389,000 barrels to 9.688 million barrels, marking the highest level since December 2021, indicating a significant rebound in fuel demand due to summer travel [1] - The daily net crude oil imports increased by 531,000 barrels to 1.674 million barrels [1] Group 3 - The Cushing region's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 500,000 barrels to 22.2 million barrels, while the strategic petroleum reserve rose by 237,000 barrels to 40.2 million barrels [2] - U.S. daily crude oil production increased by 4,000 barrels to 13.435 million barrels [2] - Analysts noted that the decline in inventories across major refined products could shift market focus back to U.S. supply and demand dynamics rather than Middle Eastern tensions [2] Group 4 - Despite easing tensions in the Middle East, supply-demand conditions remain high, indicating ongoing market sensitivity to geopolitical factors [2] - Analysts suggest that oil prices have returned to key levels prior to the outbreak of conflict between Iran and Israel, with potential for a return to economic fundamentals if geopolitical risks diminish [2][3] - Short-term momentum for oil prices has weakened, with the possibility of continued low-level fluctuations before a significant rebound occurs [3]