货币政策是调节汇率的重要手段。中央银行通过调整基准利率、公开市场操作等方式影响货币供应量和 市场利率水平。若中央银行提高利率，国内资产的收益率上升，会吸引国际资本流入以获取更高回报， 从而增加对本币的需求，促使本币升值；若降低利率，则可能导致资本外流，本币汇率走弱。此外，量 化宽松或紧缩政策也会通过影响货币供应总量，间接作用于汇率波动，调节市场的流动性状况。 国际收支状况对汇率有着直接影响。国际收支包括贸易收支和资本收支两部分。若一国贸易顺差（出口 大于进口），意味着外国需要更多本币来支付进口商品，本币需求增加，汇率上升；反之，贸易逆差会 导致本币供过于求，汇率下跌。资本账户方面，外国直接投资、证券投资等资本流入会增加本币需求， 推动汇率升值；资本外流则会对本币汇率产生贬值压力，二者共同构成了国际收支对汇率的影响逻辑。 通货膨胀水平的差异是影响汇率的长期因素。货币的购买力与通货膨胀率密切相关，若一国通货膨胀率 高于其他国家，其货币的实际购买力会下降，相对价值降低，导致本币汇率贬值；若通货膨胀率低于其 他国家，货币购买力更强，本币汇率更易升值。这一机制符合购买力平价理论的核心逻辑，是汇率长期 变动的重要参考依据 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 12, 2026, the Treasury bond futures contracts of different tenors on the China Financial Futures Exchange showed divergent trends. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, and multiple factors need to be monitored [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 12, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose slightly, the 2 - year contract fell, and the 5 - year contract was basically flat. The overall market trading was active, and the capital side remained loose [2][3]. - The 10 - year main contract opened at 108.565 yuan, closed at 108.585 yuan, up 0.025 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 72,102 lots, and the open interest was 184,151 lots, a decrease of 17,988 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - year main contract opened at 106.085 yuan and closed at 106.065 yuan, basically flat (+0.005 yuan). The trading volume was 63,267 lots, and the open interest was 74,846 lots, a decrease of 12,640 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 2 - year main contract opened at 102.456 yuan and closed at 102.458 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,644 lots, and the open interest was 34,819 lots, a decrease of 8,746 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Domestic Market Factors - Liquidity was loose. The central bank conducted 166.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40% unchanged. The net investment on the day was 448 billion yuan, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined [3][4]. - On February 12, 2026, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.356%, 1.5366%, 1.7894%, and 2.246% respectively. The yield curve steepened, and the long - end yield was relatively stable, supporting long - term Treasury bond futures [4]. 3.2.2 International Market Factors - US economic data showed that the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people in January, much higher than the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The market adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the first cut may be postponed to June or July [4]. - Global monetary policies were divergent. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, and the RBA governor said it would raise interest rates again if inflation persisted. This increased the uncertainty of international capital flows and indirectly affected the domestic bond market [4]. 3.3 Short - term Market Outlook - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market may maintain a volatile pattern. Factors to be concerned about include monetary policy trends, changes in the capital side, the impact of US monetary policy, and economic fundamental data [5][6]. - Technically, the 10 - year main contract oscillated in the range of 108.5 - 108.7 yuan, and it was necessary to watch whether it could break through the upper limit. The 5 - year and 2 - year contracts were expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading may gradually shift to new main contracts [6].

Core Viewpoint - The Canadian dollar (CAD) is experiencing a strong fluctuation against major currencies, with the USD/CAD exchange rate hitting a 15-month low, influenced by the Bank of Canada's monetary policy and external factors such as oil prices and trade relations [1][2][3][4] Group 1: Currency Performance - As of January 30, 2026, the CAD has shown strength against major currencies, with the USD/CAD rate reported at 1.3504, reflecting a slight daily increase of 0.12% [1] - The CAD has stabilized around 0.7380 against the USD, continuing its recent rebound trend [1] - The exchange rate against the Chinese yuan has also rebounded, with 100 CAD equating to 512.29 CNY, alleviating earlier depreciation pressures [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Impact - The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25% for the second consecutive time, aligning with market expectations, and indicated that this rate is suitable for achieving a 2% inflation target while supporting economic recovery [1] - The Bank of Canada has revised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 1.7%, with projections of 1.1% and 1.5% growth for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating a gradual but positive recovery [1] Group 3: Interest Rate Differentials - The divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve is strengthening the CAD's position, with market expectations of two rate cuts by the Fed this year [2] - The narrowing interest rate differential between Canada and the U.S. is reducing the attractiveness of the USD, indirectly supporting the CAD's strength [2] Group 4: Oil Price Correlation - The CAD, being a commodity currency, has a positive correlation of approximately 0.7 with international oil prices, which are currently rebounding due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [3] - Recent increases in WTI crude oil prices, which surged by 4% to $65.90 per barrel, are expected to enhance Canadian crude oil export prospects, providing robust support for the CAD [3] Group 5: Economic Fundamentals - Despite the CAD's recent strength, underlying economic weaknesses limit its appreciation potential, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.8% in December 2025, the highest since 2021 [3] - Declining consumer confidence and low corporate investment continue to highlight insufficient domestic demand, posing challenges for sustained CAD strength [3] Group 6: Trade Pressures - Increased average tariffs from the U.S. on Canadian goods, now at 5.9%, are leading to a decline in Canadian exports and reduced corporate investment intentions [4] - The upcoming review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) in summer 2026 could significantly impact Canadian exports if terms change, further increasing volatility risks for the CAD [4] Group 7: Technical Analysis - The technical outlook for USD/CAD remains bearish, with the pair consolidating around 1.3534 after breaking below the key 1.3700 level [4] - Short-term support levels are focused on 1.3534 and the 1.3600-1.3620 range, while resistance is seen at 1.3760-1.3780 [4]

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve maintained the benchmark interest rate at 3.50%-3.75%, marking the first pause after three consecutive rate cuts since September 2025[1] - The decision was passed with a 10-2 vote, with dissenting votes from Waller and Milan advocating for a 25 basis point cut[2] Economic Outlook - The Fed's view on the economy shifted from "moderate expansion" to "steady expansion," indicating a more stable economic outlook[2] - The statement regarding employment risks was softened, suggesting signs of stabilization in the labor market[2] Market Reactions - Following the meeting, U.S. stocks, bonds, and gold prices rose, while the U.S. dollar index fell[3] - The S&P 500 index decreased by 0.1%, while the Nasdaq and Dow Jones increased by 0.17% and 0.02%, respectively[3] Rate Cut Expectations - Market expectations for rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the implied probability of a March 2026 cut remaining below 20%[3] - The probability of a June rate cut decreased from 83% to 74%, with an annual expectation of 1.9 cuts in 2026, likely resulting in two cuts[3] Future Considerations - The Fed's focus is shifting towards inflation, with reduced urgency for further easing as economic momentum improves[4] - The upcoming nomination of a new Fed chair and the potential impact on monetary policy independence are critical factors to watch[4]

Group 1 - The 2026 Global and China Capital Market Outlook Forum was held on January 15, focusing on wealth logic in the AI era and the future of capital markets [1] - Zhang Yu, Chief Economist at Huachuang Securities, presented a keynote speech indicating that the stock market will continue to perform well, but a simultaneous bull market in both stocks and bonds is unlikely [2] - The stock market's trading volume is expected to remain high, but further significant increases may be challenging; the relative performance of the ChiNext board compared to the CSI 300 is becoming more difficult [2] Group 2 - The core issue in China's economic cycle is stabilizing expectations to encourage residents to stop excessive saving, which is essential for improving economic circulation [7] - The 2026 year is seen as a critical year for awakening the allocation value of the Chinese capital market, with external demand and policy support playing significant roles [5] - The forecast for GDP growth in 2026 is between 4.8% and 5.0%, with consumption growth expected to be around 4.5% to 5.0% due to the recovery of essential consumption [21][22] Group 3 - The investment growth rate is projected to rebound to 1.1% in 2026 from -3.1% in 2025, driven by central government-led investments [22] - The export sector is expected to maintain a growth rate of around 5%, benefiting from external demand and trade dynamics [25] - The consumer price index (CPI) is anticipated to turn positive in 2026, with a forecast of approximately 0.8% year-on-year growth [31]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary expressed concerns over the recent volatility of the Korean won, indicating that this trend does not align with South Korea's strong economic fundamentals [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Fundamentals and Currency Volatility - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Scott Bensant, highlighted that the recent depreciation of the won deviates from South Korea's robust economic foundation, emphasizing that excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market are not ideal [1]. - The depreciation of the won is influenced by multiple factors, including the continuous appreciation of the U.S. dollar, rising global inflation pressures, and geopolitical economic uncertainties [3]. - South Korea's commitment to invest approximately $350 billion in the U.S. may also have a temporary impact on the exchange rate [3]. Group 2: Bilateral Economic Cooperation - Bensant stated that despite currency fluctuations, the progress of the investment plan should not be hindered, as it will further enhance U.S.-Korea economic relations and positively impact the revitalization of U.S. industrial capacity [5]. - The U.S. views South Korea as an indispensable partner in Asia, particularly in key industries that support the U.S. economy [1]. - Both countries have agreed to maintain close communication to address uncertainties in the global economy and work towards stabilizing financial markets [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The stock index is expected to maintain an upward trend in the short - term, driven by the resonance of capital and fundamental factors. In the long - term, the stock index in 2026 is expected to continue the upward trend, supported by continuous policy efforts, moderate inflation recovery, and capital market reform policies [3]. - It is recommended that investors opportunistically establish long positions [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impacts**: - Economic and corporate profits: Inflation is moderately rising, with CPI and PPI showing positive trends, which is slightly positive for the stock index [3]. - Macro - policies: The first batch of 62.5 billion yuan of national subsidy funds in 2026 have been issued, with subsidy policies for various consumer goods, which is slightly positive [3]. - Overseas factors: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 has significantly decreased, which is slightly negative [3]. - Liquidity: Post - holiday market trading volume has significantly expanded, with sufficient funds promoting a strong rise in the stock index, which is positive [3]. - **Investment Viewpoint and Strategy**: - Investment view: Opportunistically go long in the short - term and continue to be bullish on the stock index in 2026 [3]. - Trading strategy: Opportunistically go long in the single - side trading, and pay attention to overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 rose 2.79% to 4758.9; the Shanghai 50 rose 3.4% to 3134.3; the CSI 500 rose 7.92% to 8056.7; the CSI 1000 rose 7.03% to 8129.2 [5]. - **Futures Performance**: The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts of the corresponding indexes also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - **Industry Performance**: Among the Shenwan primary industry indexes, the comprehensive, national defense and military industry, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer industries led the gains, while only the banking industry declined [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased to varying degrees [11]. - **Spread Performance**: The spreads between different indexes and different contract months of futures showed different levels of premium or discount [13]. 3.3 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: This week (January 5 - 9), the central bank conducted 102.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1221.4 billion yuan. Next week, there will be 138.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase and 600 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase maturing [24]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of January 8, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2612.22 billion yuan, an increase of 79.51 billion yuan from the previous week. The financing purchase amount accounted for 12.4% of the total market trading volume, at the 98.2% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week increased by 652.17 billion yuan compared with the previous week [30]. 3.4 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Profits - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In December 2025, China's economic indicators showed different trends, such as an increase in GDP, changes in industrial added value, investment, consumption, and employment data [33]. - **Industry - Specific Indicators**: Different industries such as real estate, consumption, manufacturing, and infrastructure construction investment showed different development trends [35][37][38][39]. - **PMI Indicators**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing PMI both showed positive changes, indicating an improvement in the economic situation [41]. - **Corporate Profit Indicators**: The profitability indicators of major broad - based indexes and Shenwan primary industry indexes showed different levels of performance [46][47]. 3.5 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Driving - **Macro - policy Trends**: A series of policies have been introduced, including more active fiscal policies, moderately loose monetary policies, and policies to support housing consumption and promote consumption [51][52][53]. 3.6 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In December 2024, the US manufacturing PMI decreased, the non - manufacturing PMI increased, the unemployment rate decreased, and the number of new non - farm payrolls decreased. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [64][66][67]. - **Trump Team's Actions**: Trump's team has announced a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations [73][75][77][79]. 3.7 Stock Index Influencing Factors - Valuation - **Index Valuation**: As of January 9, 2026, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14.4 times, 12 times, 36.4 times, and 49.4 times respectively, at different quantile levels since October 2014 [82]. - **Sector Valuation**: Different sectors showed different levels of price - to - earnings ratios, price - to - book ratios, and their corresponding historical quantile levels [87].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak consolidation, with government bond futures slightly declining and a mixed performance in interbank bond yields, indicating a need for further economic data to assess changes in the economic fundamentals [1] Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.07% at 110.87, the 10-year main contract down 0.02% at 107.765, and the 5-year and 2-year contracts both down 0.03% [2] - The interbank major interest rate bonds showed narrow fluctuations, with the 30-year government bond yield decreasing by 0.6 basis points to 2.3085%, while the 10-year government bond yield increased by 0.1 basis points to 1.889% [2] Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 2-year yield increasing by 1.86 basis points to 3.488% and the 10-year yield rising by 1.97 basis points to 4.167% [3] - In Asia, Japanese bond yields mostly increased, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 2.5 basis points and 1.7 basis points, respectively [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield rose by 0.6 basis points to 3.527%, while the 10-year German bond yield increased by 1.3 basis points to 2.861% [3] Primary Market - The Export-Import Bank's 3-year fixed-rate bond had a winning bid rate of 1.6214%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 4.47 [4] - The Ministry of Finance's 10-year fixed-rate bond had a weighted average winning yield of 1.8627%, with a total bid-to-cover ratio of 5.48 [4] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a 340 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, with a net injection of 340 billion yuan for the day [5] - The Shibor short-term rates showed mixed performance, with the overnight rate rising by 0.2 basis points to 1.272% and the 7-day rate declining by 0.1 basis points to 1.461% [5] Economic Fundamentals - In December 2025, the PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year, while the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, indicating a slight uptick in consumer demand [6][7] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing consumer demand and inflationary pressures [7] Institutional Views - CITIC Securities noted that the issuance pace of new special bonds in 2025 is relatively slow compared to historical averages but is expected to accelerate compared to 2024, with a more stable issuance rhythm [8] - Xingzheng Fixed Income indicated that potential upward risks for local bond rates may not lead to shorter issuance terms, as the overall issuance duration is likely to remain long due to various factors [8]

Group 1 - The recent increase of 54 points in the market, accumulating to approximately 340 points over the week, indicates a potential trend rather than a mere fluctuation, suggesting a gradual expansion of previously suppressed market dynamics [1] - Historical context shows that the Renminbi has demonstrated resilience during global liquidity adjustments, particularly in times of external uncertainty, highlighting the importance of economic fundamentals and policy frameworks in sustaining long-term trends [1][3] - Market confidence and policy effectiveness cannot be solely determined by short-term numerical changes; a deeper understanding of the underlying factors is necessary to avoid oversimplification [3] Group 2 - External concerns often reflect the projection of domestic policy choices, and focusing too much on external sentiments may lead to missed opportunities for self-adjustment [5] - For domestic policy, it is crucial to maintain continuity and stability while being flexible in response to capital flow volatility, balancing between macro-prudential measures and short-term fluctuations [5] - Strategies should differentiate between short-term and medium-term goals, utilizing tools like foreign exchange reserves and macro-prudential measures for short-term stability, while relying on reforms and market deepening for long-term resilience [7]

Group 1: Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index surged by 2.76% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 4% on January 2, 2026, indicating strong market sentiment and enhanced global attractiveness of Chinese assets [1] - The recent performance of the Hong Kong stock market reflects a significant improvement in the global appeal of Chinese assets, driven by multiple factors including policy benefits, economic fundamentals, and global liquidity [1] Group 2: Policy Support - A comprehensive policy framework has been established to enhance the attractiveness of Chinese assets, including high-level opening-up, support for technological innovation, and optimization of the foreign investment environment [1] - Specific measures such as the optimization of capital market connectivity and the reduction of the negative list for cross-border service trade have been implemented to eliminate barriers for foreign investment [1] - Policies targeting key sectors like high-end manufacturing, semiconductors, and biomedicine have been introduced, providing tax incentives, R&D subsidies, and financing support to cultivate globally competitive enterprises [1] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Continuous improvement in China's economic fundamentals and internal driving forces is a core support for the attractiveness of Chinese assets [2] - The manufacturing PMI reached 50.1% in December 2025, marking its first entry into the expansion zone since April of the previous year, with high-tech manufacturing PMI at 52.5% [2] - The emergence of new growth engines reinforces the logic of high-quality economic development and provides clear and lasting value anchors for the capital market [2] Group 4: Global Liquidity and Asset Allocation - The restructuring of global liquidity and adjustments in asset allocation have opened a strategic window for Chinese assets [3] - The Federal Reserve's cumulative interest rate cuts of 75 basis points last year have triggered a global capital reallocation wave, increasing the risk appetite for international capital [3] - China's assets are viewed as a "safe haven" due to their strong risk resistance and growth certainty, attracting long-term global capital allocation [3]