Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, the overall EBITDA margin is anticipated to decline both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Industry Summary - The gaming industry in Macau is projected to see a year-on-year EBITDA increase of 9% for Q3 [1] - Gaming revenue is expected to grow by 12.5% in the same period [1] - The overall EBITDA margin is expected to decline compared to both the previous year and the previous quarter [1] - For Q4, gaming revenue is anticipated to grow by over 10% year-on-year [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially allowing Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Company Summary - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's gaming industry EBITDA for Q3, with gaming revenue expected to rise by 12.5%. However, it anticipates a decline in overall EBITDA margin both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 1: Industry Outlook - The gaming revenue in Macau is projected to grow by over 10% year-on-year in Q4 [1] - The industry's EV/EBITDA forecast for this year is 10 times, which is lower than the 15-year average of 12.8 times, potentially aiding Macau gaming stocks to outperform the market [1] Group 2: Company Focus - Morgan Stanley is optimistic about Wynn Macau (01128) due to its increasing market share, high yield, and attractive valuation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Kwan Cheuk Holdings (03918) has dropped over 4% following a previous increase of over 9%, with concerns regarding the uncertainty surrounding the scale of the Naga 3 project [1] Financial Performance - Kwan Cheuk Holdings reported total gaming revenue of $532 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] - The net gaming revenue for the same period was $466 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - In the third quarter, total gaming revenue reached $200 million, exceeding Citigroup's forecast of $152.4 million [1] Analyst Insights - Citigroup has raised its earnings forecast for Kwan Cheuk Holdings for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 20% to 24% based on the company's revenue data [1] - The target price for the stock has been adjusted from HKD 4.4 to HKD 5.4, although Citigroup maintains a "sell" rating [1] - Despite strong growth in gaming revenue over the past three quarters, there are still uncertainties regarding the scale of the Naga 3 project [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility in the stock price of Goldin Financial Holdings, which dropped over 4% after a previous increase of over 9% [1] - As of the latest report, Goldin Financial Holdings' stock is trading at HKD 6.12, with a trading volume of HKD 69.27 million [1] - The company reported a total gaming revenue of USD 532 million for the nine months ending September 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] Group 2 - The net gaming revenue for the same period was USD 466 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 30% [1] - Citigroup's research indicated that Goldin Financial's total gaming revenue for the third quarter was USD 200 million, exceeding their forecast of USD 152.4 million [1] - Based on the revenue data, Citigroup raised its earnings forecast for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027 by 20% to 24%, adjusting the target price from HKD 4.4 to HKD 5.4, while maintaining a "sell" rating [1] Group 3 - Despite the strong growth in gaming revenue over the past three quarters, there are uncertainties regarding the scale of the Naga3 project [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Macau's gaming stocks have collectively declined, with specific companies experiencing notable drops in their stock prices [1] - As of the report, Melco International Development fell by 5.1% to HKD 5.77, Wynn Macau dropped by 2.68% to HKD 6.9, MGM China decreased by 2.22% to HKD 16.31, and Galaxy Entertainment fell by 2.05% to HKD 42.04 [1] - The Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reported that the gross gaming revenue (GGR) for September was MOP 18.289 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Group 2 - For the first nine months of the year, Macau's total gross gaming revenue reached MOP 181.341 billion, which is a year-on-year increase of 7.1% [1] - Morgan Stanley's report indicated that the total gaming revenue for September was MOP 18.3 billion, which was below both market expectations and the bank's forecast of 9% growth, primarily due to a 33-hour casino shutdown caused by a typhoon [1] - The third quarter's total gaming revenue was MOP 62.6 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 12.5% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.4% [1] Group 3 - Citigroup noted that the September gaming revenue of MOP 18.289 billion corresponds to an average daily revenue of MOP 610 million, reaching 83% of the levels seen in the same period of 2019 [2] - The reported figure was slightly below Citigroup's expectation of MOP 18.5 billion and 3% lower than the market consensus of MOP 18.8 billion [2] - Looking ahead to October, Citigroup forecasts total gaming revenue to reach MOP 23 billion, representing an 11% year-on-year increase, with an average daily revenue of MOP 742 million [2]

Core Viewpoint - Kwan Cheung Holdings (03918) experienced a significant stock price increase of nearly 15%, driven by strong financial performance and positive market sentiment [1] Financial Performance - For the nine months ending September 30, 2025, the total gaming revenue reached $532 million, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.6% [1] - The net gaming revenue was $466 million, showing a year-on-year growth of 30% [1] Market Analysis - UBS's research indicates that the growth in total gaming revenue (GGR) is accelerating, supported by an increase in business travelers to Phnom Penh, Cambodia, and rising local demand [1] - Due to better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, UBS plans to revise its total gaming revenue forecasts for 2025 to 2026 upwards by 21% to 29% [1] - Overall, the total gaming revenue is expected to grow by 32% this year and by 10% next year [1]

Core Insights - In September, Macau's gross gaming revenue reached MOP 18.289 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - For the first nine months of the year, the total gross gaming revenue in Macau amounted to MOP 181.341 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.1% [1] Monthly Revenue Summary - January: MOP 18.254 billion in 2025, down 5.6% from 2024 [2] - February: MOP 19.744 billion in 2025, up 6.8% from 2024 [2] - March: MOP 19.659 billion in 2025, up 0.8% from 2024 [2] - April: MOP 18.858 billion in 2025, up 1.7% from 2024 [2] - May: MOP 21.193 billion in 2025, up 5.0% from 2024 [2] - June: MOP 21.064 billion in 2025, up 19.0% from 2024 [2] - July: MOP 22.125 billion in 2025, up 19.0% from 2024 [2] - August: MOP 22.156 billion in 2025, up 12.2% from 2024 [2] - September: MOP 18.289 billion in 2025, up 6.0% from 2024 [2]

Group 1 - Macau's gaming revenue reached a record high of 22.16 billion MOP in August, marking a 0.14% month-on-month increase and a 12.2% year-on-year increase, surpassing the estimated growth of 12.0% [1][1][1] - From January to August, the total gaming revenue amounted to 163.05 billion MOP, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [1][1][1] - Haidong International forecasts that September will see a vibrant array of activities, likely boosting visitor numbers and gaming gross revenue (GGR) during the off-peak season [1][1][1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs attributes the strong performance of Macau's gaming companies to a combination of major events, wealth effects driven by the stock market, relaxed visa policies, and ongoing safety concerns in Thailand and the Philippines, which have led more mainland tourists to choose Hong Kong and Macau as destinations [1][1][1] - For the upcoming National Day Golden Week, gaming companies anticipate strong demand based on nearly full hotel bookings and communication with clients, while the National Games are not expected to significantly impact gaming revenue [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Macau's gaming industry is expected to maintain strong momentum due to various factors such as major events, wealth effects from the stock market, relaxed visa policies, and ongoing security concerns in Thailand and the Philippines, leading more mainland tourists to choose Hong Kong and Macau as destinations [1][2] - The overall industry anticipates strong growth momentum to continue for the remainder of the year, with a projected 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) for 2025, translating to a 14% year-on-year growth from September to December this year, and a 7% growth in 2026 [1] - The company Goldman Sachs has a "buy" rating for Sands China (01928), citing that the stock price has not fully reflected its ability to regain market share and potential for dividend growth, with a target price set at HKD 24.8 [1] Group 2 - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also favored by the company, with expectations of increased market share driven by the new hotel Capella and numerous major events, and a target price of HKD 55.9 with a "buy" rating [2] - MGM China (02282) is noted for its attractive valuation, with expectations to maintain a market share of 15% to 16% and a dividend yield of 5.1%, also anticipated to absorb some gaming volume from the upcoming closure of satellite casinos, with a target price of HKD 20.4 and a "buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reports that Macau gaming companies attribute the strong performance of gross gaming revenue (GGR) in recent months to a combination of major events, wealth effects driven by the stock market, relaxed visa policies, and ongoing security concerns in Thailand and the Philippines, leading more mainland travelers to choose Hong Kong and Macau as destinations [1] Industry Summary - The gaming industry anticipates strong growth momentum to continue for the remainder of the year, with expectations of a 9% year-on-year increase in Macau's total gaming revenue for 2025, translating to a 14% year-on-year growth from September to December this year, and a 7% growth in 2026 [1] Company Summary - Sands China (01928) is favored by Goldman Sachs due to its stock price not fully reflecting its ability to regain market share and potential for dividend growth, despite potential short-term profit margin pressure from recent promotional adjustments and reinvestment rates; target price set at HKD 24.8 with a "Buy" rating [1] - Galaxy Entertainment (00027) is also viewed positively, with expectations of market share growth driven by the new hotel Capella and major events; target price set at HKD 55.9 with a "Buy" rating [1] - MGM China (02282) is considered the most attractively valued, expected to maintain a 15% to 16% market share with a dividend yield of 5.1%, and likely to absorb some gaming volume from the upcoming closure of satellite casinos; target price set at HKD 20.4 with a "Buy" rating [1]