多周期分析

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闫瑞祥:黄金日线618如期承压下跌,欧美震荡下跌不变
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-15 05:20
Dollar Index - The dollar index showed an upward trend on Monday, reaching a high of 98.112 and a low of 97.737, closing at 98.088 [1] - The market exhibited a volatile upward movement, with a significant bullish closing [1] - From a multi-timeframe analysis, the weekly resistance is at 98.90, while the daily support is at 97.30, indicating a potential bullish outlook above this level [1] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Monday, with a high of 3374.85 and a low of 3340.89, closing at 3343.19 [3] - The price initially gapped higher but faced resistance at the 618 retracement level, leading to a significant bearish closing [3] - The four-hour support level is critical, with a focus on the 3340 position for short-term trading strategies [4] Euro/USD - The Euro/USD pair showed a volatile performance on Monday, with a low of 1.1653 and a high of 1.1697, closing at 1.1663 [6] - The market is currently in a corrective phase, with a focus on the 1.1730 level for potential bearish strategies [6] - Multi-timeframe analysis suggests long-term bullish sentiment supported by the monthly low of 1.0950, while short-term strategies should consider resistance at 1.1690 [6] Economic Data and Events - Key economic data and events to watch include China's GDP report, retail sales, and industrial output, as well as U.S. inflation metrics and Federal Reserve speeches [8] - The market will also be attentive to the OPEC monthly oil market report and comments from the Bank of England's officials [8]
闫瑞祥:黄金如期跌破周线支撑,欧美关注趋势线阻力
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-07-08 23:52
Dollar Index - The dollar index showed volatility on Tuesday, reaching a high of 97.816 and a low of 97.151, closing at 97.471 [1] - The price initially tested support before a strong upward movement, breaking daily resistance during the US trading session [1] - The focus is on whether the index can maintain its position above the four-hour support and daily resistance levels [1] Multi-Timeframe Analysis - On the weekly level, the dollar index faces resistance around the 99 area, indicating a bearish trend in the medium term [2] - The daily key resistance is at 97.40, with the price currently testing this area [2] - The four-hour support is at 97.30, and the price is expected to remain bullish as long as it stays above this level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a decline on Monday, with a high of 3345.68 and a low of 3286.89, closing at 3301.47 [4] - The price faced resistance at the daily level, leading to a weak performance and a new weekly low [4] - The weekly support level is at 3311, and the price has broken below this, suggesting a bearish outlook [5] Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Gold - The four-hour support has become a key resistance after being broken, with a focus on the 3320 area [5] - The price is expected to remain bearish below this level, with targets set at 3275-3250 [7] Euro/USD Market - The Euro/USD pair showed an upward trend on Tuesday, with a low of 1.1682 and a high of 1.1765, closing at 1.1724 [7] - The monthly support is at 1.0950, indicating a long-term bullish outlook [7] - The daily focus is on the 1.1700 level and the previous low, with potential for further movement depending on market conditions [7] Multi-Timeframe Analysis for Euro/USD - The four-hour resistance is at 1.1730, with a trendline resistance between 1.1760-70 [7] - A bearish position is suggested in the 1.1760-70 range, with targets set at 1.0700-1.0640 [9]
闫瑞祥:欧洲央行决议与美联储官员讲话,市场再迎考验
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-05 06:47
Macroeconomic Overview - On June 4, international gold prices rose significantly by 0.56%, driven by complex global economic conditions. Poor U.S. economic data, such as the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dropping to 49.9 and ADP employment figures falling short of expectations, led investors to seek refuge in gold, with prices reaching a peak of $3384.55 per ounce [1] - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.5%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds decreased, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold and enhancing its appeal [1] - The Trump administration's tariff policies, which doubled steel and aluminum import tariffs on June 4, have severely impacted global supply chains, further highlighting gold's safe-haven value [1] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have surged, with a 77% probability for a cut in September, supported by ADP employment data and inflation pressures [1] - Investors are awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll report on June 6, which will influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and subsequently affect gold prices [1] U.S. Dollar Index - On June 4, the U.S. dollar index exhibited a fluctuating trend, reaching a high of 99.372 and a low of 98.646, ultimately closing at 98.789 [2] - The market showed weak continuation after an initial upward movement, leading to a significant bearish close [2] - The weekly resistance level is noted at 101.10, suggesting a bearish outlook for the dollar index in the medium term [2] Gold Market - Gold prices on June 4 showed an overall upward trend, with a high of $3384.55 and a low of $3343.68, closing at $3372.24 [4] - The market is currently experiencing alternating bullish and bearish trends, with a focus on whether this pattern will continue [4] - Key support levels for gold are identified at $3320-$3322, with a critical threshold at $3360 for short-term movements [5][7] Euro and U.S. Dollar Pair - The Euro to U.S. dollar exchange rate showed an overall increase on June 4, with a low of 1.1356 and a high of 1.1434, closing at 1.1412 [7] - The market remains above key support levels, indicating a bullish outlook in the medium term [7]
闫瑞祥:黄金关注日线阻力及缺口回补,欧美区间震荡对待
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-16 05:33
Macroeconomic Overview - The recent release of economic data from the US has shown widespread weakness, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly declining by 0.5%, retail sales growth plummeting to 0.1%, and manufacturing output decreasing by 0.4%, significantly undermining market confidence in the US economy [1] - The US Treasury market experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 11 basis points and the 2-year yield falling by 9.2 basis points; the US dollar index decreased by 0.2% [1] - Geopolitical risks are escalating, with stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and difficulties in the Iran nuclear deal talks, leading to increased interest in gold as a safe-haven asset [1] US Dollar Index - The US dollar index exhibited a downward trend, reaching a high of 101.05 and a low of 100.562, ultimately closing at 100.8 [2] - The index is currently facing resistance at the 102.90 level on a weekly basis, suggesting a bearish outlook in the medium term, while key support is identified at the 100.30 level [2] Gold Market - Gold prices showed a rebound, with a high of 3240.37 and a low of 3120.56, closing at 3229.59 [4] - The market is observing a four-month upward trend with a recent correction, and the price is supported at the 3100 level; a break below this support could lead to further downward pressure [5] - Short-term support is noted in the 3199-3200 range, with targets set at 3250, 3282, and 3325 [7] Euro and US Dollar Exchange Rate - The EUR/USD pair experienced an overall increase, with a low of 1.1167 and a high of 1.1227, closing at 1.1183 [8] - The market is currently supported at the 1.0800 level on a monthly basis, with a bearish outlook in the short term unless the price breaks above the daily resistance [8] Key Economic Data and Events - Upcoming economic data to watch includes the French ILO unemployment rate, Eurozone trade balance, US new housing starts, building permits, import price index, and consumer confidence index [10]