Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market showed a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations on the day. The main contract of Shanghai Gold closed flat, Shanghai Silver rose 0.47%, Platinum rose 2%, and Palladium fell 2.27%. The short - term core logic is that while the trade - war risk has eased, geopolitical risks still exist. The US employment is strong and inflation pressure remains, with low expectations of interest - rate cuts. [1] - Trump's 10% global tariff has come into effect, and the White House plans to raise it to 15%. China will adjust counter - measures as appropriate. The US - Iran conflict risk still exists. [1] - The Fed's January meeting minutes showed great differences among policymakers on the future direction of interest rates, with discussions on the possibility of interest - rate hikes mentioned for the first time. The market expects the Fed to complete interest - rate cuts this year, with the next cut possibly in July. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields fluctuated weakly. [1] - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. Silver is supported by tight supply, platinum has strong demand expectations for platinum - based catalysts in the hydrogen energy industry, and palladium has short - term demand resilience but faces long - term structural pressure in the fuel - vehicle market. The CRB commodity index fluctuated weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB was negative for domestic prices. [1] - It is expected that precious metals will show a slightly stronger trend with fluctuations in the short term, high - level fluctuations in the medium term, and a long - term bullish trend. [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can buy low and sell high. Good position management and strict stop - loss and take - profit are recommended. [2] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Gold and London Gold) increased, while domestic prices (Shanghai Gold main contract and Gold T + D) showed mixed trends. The basis and spreads also had different changes. [2] - **Position and Inventory**: Comex Gold and Shanghai Gold main contract positions decreased, while Gold T + D positions increased slightly. Inventory changes were relatively small. [2] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Gold on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [3] Silver - **Strategy**: Similar to gold, conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [5] - **Price Data**: International prices (Comex Silver and London Silver) increased significantly, while domestic prices (Shanghai Silver main contract and Silver T + D) decreased. The basis and spreads changed greatly. [5] - **Position and Inventory**: Positions in Comex Silver, Shanghai Silver main contract, and Silver T + D all decreased. Inventory also decreased. [5] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Shanghai Silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange had different changes. [6] Platinum - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with good position management. [7] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Platinum and London Platinum) had different trends, and domestic prices (Platinum main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange and Platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange) increased. The basis and spreads changed. [8] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Platinum active contract decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly. [8] - **Net Position Ranking**: The top 10 futures companies' net long and net short positions in Platinum on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange had different changes. [9] Palladium - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, and aggressive investors can buy low and sell high with proper position management. [10] - **Price Data**: International prices (NYMEX Palladium and London Palladium) increased, and the domestic price (Palladium main contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange) also increased. The basis and spreads changed. [10] - **Position and Inventory**: The position of NYMEX Palladium active contract decreased significantly, and the inventory decreased slightly. [10] Precious Metals Fundamental Key Data - **Monetary Attributes**: The Federal Reserve's relevant interest rates decreased, and the total assets decreased slightly. Key economic indicators such as M2, ten - year US Treasury real yield, and US dollar index had different changes. [11][13] - **US Economic Data**: GDP, unemployment rate, employment data, real estate market data, consumption data, industrial data, trade data, and economic survey data all showed different trends. [13] - **Central Bank Gold Reserves and IMF Foreign Exchange Reserves**: China's central bank gold reserves increased slightly, and the proportion of different currencies in IMF foreign exchange reserves changed. [13] - **Safe - Haven and Commodity Attributes**: The geopolitical risk index and VIX index decreased, and the CRB commodity index increased slightly. The offshore RMB exchange rate decreased slightly. [13] Fed's Latest Interest - Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of the Fed's interest - rate levels at different meetings from 2026 to 2027 is provided, showing the market's expectations of the Fed's interest - rate decisions. [15]

投资咨询系列报告 | | | 学名录 | | | | 学卒会 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名次 | 会员简称 | きを東 | 増減 | 日报(%) 名次 | 会员简称 | 净空車 | 增減 | 日比(%) | | | 前5名合计 | 76.391.00 | 3,033.00 | 25.55 | -- 前5名合计 | 10,325.00 | -7.00 | 3.45 | | -- | 前10名台计 | 105.446.00 | 4,197.00 | 35.27 | -- 前10名合计 | 11,887.00 | -193.00 | 3.98 | | -- | 前20名合计 | 133.068.00 | 4.946.00 | 44.51 | -- 前20名合计 | 12,137.00 | -169.00 | 4.06 | | | 1 国泰君安 | 22.558.00 | 959.00 | 7.55 | 1 云昌期货 | 4.082.00 | 136.00 | 1.37 | | | 2 中信期货 | 20.993.0 ...

今日盘间，有色金属板块大幅走高，有色ETF富国（159168）涨幅一度达到5.32%。 标的指数成分股中，锡业股份、北方稀土、驰宏锌锗均10CM涨停，盛和资源涨超9%，超九成个股上 涨。 美伊摩擦持续升级，叠加美国政府宣布对全球商品加征10%~15%替代性关税，市场对"政策不确定 性"和"供应链重构"的担忧显著升温，这一宏观环境强化了关键矿产的避险属性与滞胀交易逻辑。 研究机构认为，进入2026年，随着市场进入牛市第二阶段——盈利驱动上涨阶段，在"反内卷"和扩内需 驱动下，国内再通膨叙事强化，有色金属的强周期属性有望体现，而金融属性及产业趋势将为行业带来 重估机遇。 投资者若想布局有色金属板块，可以考虑关注有色ETF富国（159168），其紧密跟踪工业有色指数 （H11059.CSI），严格筛选30只业务涉及铜、铝、稀土、铅锌、钨钼等工业金属领域的上市公司，聚 焦"工业金属"，更有望受益于产业升级等趋势下的增长红利。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

投资咨询系列报告 报告导读： 今日贵金属震荡偏弱，沪金主力收涨0.48%，沪银主力收涨1.97%，铂金主力收跌0.50%，钯金主力收涨跌1.06%。①核心逻辑， 短期避险方面，美伊等地缘异动风险上升；新联储主席预期偏鹰，美国就业走弱通胀压力仍存，降息预期渐近尾声。②避险属性方 面，美伊冲突升级，地区紧张局势升温。③货币属性方面，美联储戴利指出劳动力市场存在脆弱性，仍有降息空间。美国1月ADP 新增就业岗位2.2万个，远低于市场预期4.8万人，前值由4.1万下修至3.7万。特朗普提名前美联储理事沃什接替鲍威尔，新提名引 爆鹰派预期，其主张缩减资产负债表并对降息持谨慎态度，但上任仍存一定变数。美国12月PPI创五个月来最大环比涨幅，意味着 未来数月通胀可能加速，让美联储能够在一段时间内维持利率稳定。目前市场预期美联储降息年内完成，下次降息或到6月。美元 指数和美债收益率低位反弹；④商品属性方面，中国央行连续15个月增持黄金。关注银铂钯需求证伪风险。白银受到供应偏紧支 撑。铂金氢能产业铂基催化剂需求预期强劲。钯金短期需求仍有韧性，长期面临燃油车市场结构性压力。CRB商品指数震荡偏弱， 人民币升值利空内价格。⑤预计贵 ...

更新时间：2026年02月09日16时26分 | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | 较上日 | | 较上周/前值 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国际价格 | Comex黄金活跃合约收盘价 | 美元/盎司 | 4988.60 | 190.50 | 3.97% | 81.10 | 1.65% | | | 伦敦金 | 美元/盎司 | 4948.00 | 100.75 | 2.08% | -33.85 | -0.68% | | 国内价格 | 沪金主力收盘价（上期所） | 元/克 | 1125.94 | 35.82 | 3.29% | 117.34 | 11.63% | | | 黄金T+D收盘价（上金所） | 元/克 | 1118.84 | 27.35 | 2.51% | 91.72 | 8.93% | | 基差与价差、比价 | 沪金主力-伦敦金 | 元/克 | 5.88 | -15.15 | -72% | 75.25 | -108% | | | 沪金主力基差 | 元/克 | -7.10 | -8.47 | | -25.62 | ...

Core Insights - Silver has been referred to as "the poor man's gold," but recent market performance has challenged this notion, with silver prices experiencing significant volatility compared to gold [1] - The demand dynamics for gold and silver are fundamentally different, with over 90% of gold demand coming from investment and reserves, while industrial demand accounts for 60% of silver [1][3] Group 1: Price Volatility and Market Dynamics - Silver prices are highly volatile, with a historical volatility rate of 33%, which is 1.7 times that of gold [3] - In 2025, silver saw an annual increase of approximately 147.79%, while gold's increase was 64.56% [3] - The silver market is significantly smaller than the gold market, with a market size only one-tenth that of gold, leading to lower liquidity and greater susceptibility to speculative trading [3][5] Group 2: Demand and Supply Factors - Gold's demand is bolstered by central bank purchases, with global central banks net buying 230 tons of gold in Q4 2025, reflecting a trend towards de-dollarization [3][7] - Silver's demand is closely tied to industrial applications, with increasing usage in sectors like photovoltaics and AI servers, but this demand is cyclical and can be negatively impacted during economic downturns [3][7] - The supply of gold is relatively stable and scarce, while silver supply is more abundant and often derived from base metal mining, leading to a persistent supply-demand gap in the silver market [7] Group 3: Investment Behavior and Market Structure - The gold-silver ratio, which measures the value of one ounce of gold relative to silver, indicates that silver's short-term performance can sometimes exceed that of gold, as seen when the ratio fell from over 100 to around 91 in mid-2025 [5] - The investor base for gold primarily consists of central banks and long-term investors focused on value preservation, while silver attracts more industrial users and speculative investors, leading to higher leverage in the silver futures market [5][9] - Historical instances show that gold can rise while silver falls, indicating that silver cannot fully replace gold's core role as a safe-haven asset, but may serve as a strategic complement during certain market cycles [9]

信号一：美联储政策"鹰派变脸" 新任美联储主席沃什的鹰派立场，像一盆冷水浇灭了市场宽松预期。美元指数应声反弹，美债收益率飙升，直接刺破了黄金的短期泡沫。更关键的是，市 场对美联储独立性的担忧开始松动——这可是支撑黄金十年牛市的根基之一。 最近几天，黄金市场像坐了过山车——1月底冲上5600美元/盎司的历史高位后，转眼间又暴跌20%，创下40年来单日最大跌幅。这场波动让不少投资者心 跳加速，但真正需要警惕的是，三大罕见信号已悄然浮现，预示更大的变盘可能就在眼前。 虽然中东局势依旧紧张，但市场发现：黄金的避险属性正在被"去美元化"替代。各国央行购金速度放缓，中国投资者转向黄金ETF和积存金，这种从"囤 实物"到"玩金融"的转变，让金价波动更像股票而非避险资产。 变盘前夜的三大支撑 数据显示，黄金ETF持仓量突破历史极值，白银期货未平仓合约一度占全球产量的30%。这种极端拥挤的交易结构，就像暴雨前的蚂蚁搬家。当沃什提名 消息传来，杠杆资金连夜出逃，单日抛售量抵得上三个月正常交易量。 央行"压舱石"仍在：全球央行年度购金量仍超800吨，波兰等国资深买家未退场 信号三：避险逻辑"裂痕初现" 美元信用"慢性病"未愈：美国 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swiss Franc continues to show strength at the beginning of 2026, supported by its safe-haven status amid global risk volatility and the uncertain U.S. dollar performance [1][2] Exchange Rate Performance - As of 10:10 AM, the USD/CHF exchange rate was around 0.7770, down 0.1285% from the previous trading day, while the CHF/CNY rate was 8.9412, down 27 points, indicating a balanced market [1] - The Swiss Franc has appreciated over 3% against the U.S. dollar since the start of 2026, with a total increase of 12.7% in 2025, marking the highest level in 11 years since 2015 [1] Core Drivers - The primary driver of the Swiss Franc's strength is its safe-haven appeal, bolstered by global geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in U.S. policies, leading to continued inflows into the Swiss Franc [1] - Switzerland's long-standing political neutrality, substantial current account surplus, and low government debt levels further support the Franc's strength, alongside the historical high of gold prices [1] Swiss National Bank Policy Dilemma - The Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a 0% benchmark interest rate, with inflation at only 0.1%, nearing deflation, which pressures export industry profits due to a strong Franc [2] - The SNB has indicated readiness for negative interest rates and potential market interventions, but no actual actions have been taken yet, leading to a wait-and-see market attitude [2] Technical Analysis and Outlook - The USD/CHF pair is currently in a triangular consolidation pattern, with moderate bullish momentum; key support is at 0.7750, and a rebound could test resistance at 0.7945 [2] - A break below 0.7705 could open up further downside potential, while the Swiss Franc is expected to continue high-level fluctuations, with its safe-haven status as the core support [2]

◎记者 张骄 近期，国际贵金属市场风云变幻，黄金、白银在暴跌后迅速反弹。 伦敦现货黄金曾重回5000美元/盎司，但在2月5日又急转直下，一度失守4800美元/盎司关口。伦敦现货 白银近期波动更为剧烈，单日盘中一度大跌超30%，也一度大涨超10%。2月5日，伦敦银高台跳水，盘 中重挫超17%，随后跌幅有所收窄。 如此大涨大跌，凸显出贵金属领域当前的极端不确定性。不少市场参与者认为，引发本轮走势的"沃什 交易"逻辑仍未完全消化，金银价格尚未企稳，下行风险犹存，市场正处于激烈的博弈状态。 当下，短期和长期投资者的策略差异和投资故事，进一步勾勒出当前市场的结构特征。 杠杆散户遭阻击 偏"鹰派"的凯文·沃什被提名为下任美联储主席的消息给市场泼了一盆冷水，但风险警报在此前就已拉 响。复盘来看，华西证券首席经济学家刘郁在研报中称，贵金属的下跌始于提名消息落地前（1月29日 晚），更多是多头过度拥挤后的修正。 "做梦都是金价跌了。"黄金投资"新玩家"张女士向上证报记者表示，她在1010元/克的价位补仓黄金 后，眼见着金价这两天涨到1100元以上，果断止盈。"暂时落袋为安，等回调再买，相当于在黄金上做 T了"。 去年尝过"甜头 ...