订单将执行到本月底。上周尿素企业库存继续增加，临近国庆，各地尿素工厂陆续启动国庆收单，少数企 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 尿素产业日报 2025-09-29 趋势，目前尿素流向偏少，刚需尚未明显增加，短期预计仍呈现小幅增加。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1664 | -5 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -51 | 0 78 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 281504 | -10529 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -43004 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7211 | -30 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1600 | -10 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in domestic urea daily production is due to the resumption of some previously shut - down plants, and there are no planned plant shutdowns this week, with 2 - 5 shut - down plants expected to resume production. Considering the equipment changes in the current period, this week's production has increased significantly [2]. - The market support for urea is limited. Agricultural demand is scattered, with only a small increase in local areas. Industrial demand is stable, but the production of compound fertilizer's autumn fertilizer is in the later stage, and demand in most parts of North China is weakening, with more enterprises likely to reduce production or shut down, and the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline slightly [2]. - As the National Day holiday approaches, urea factories are starting to accept orders for the holiday. Leading factories in major production and sales areas have lowered their quotes to stimulate downstream purchasing. There is continued concentrated export through ports, and some urea enterprises' export orders will be fulfilled by the end of this month [2]. - This week, the inventory of urea enterprises continues to increase. Although there are differences in inventory changes among enterprises, the overall inventory is on the rise. Currently, there are few urea flow directions, and rigid demand has not increased significantly. In the short term, it is expected to show a slight increase. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period. The 1 - 5 spread of Zhengzhou urea is - 53 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 301,894 lots, an increase of 1,736 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Zhengzhou urea is - 46,677 lots, a decrease of 3,648 lots [2]. - The number of exchange warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou urea is 7,535, unchanged from the previous period [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1650 yuan/ton, 1620 yuan/ton, 1610 yuan/ton, and 1620 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price in Henan is 1610 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB price in the Baltic Sea is 387.5 US dollars/ton, and the FOB price at the main Chinese port is 417.5 US dollars/ton, both unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory is 51.6 tons, a decrease of 3.34 tons from the previous week. The enterprise inventory is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 81.22%, an increase of 1.88 percentage points. The daily urea output is 190,000 tons, an increase of 4,400 tons [2]. - The urea export volume is 80 tons, an increase of 23 tons. The monthly output of urea is 5,928,680 tons, a decrease of 123,400 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points. The operating rate of melamine is 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 186 yuan/ton, an increase of 21 yuan/ton. The weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 19 yuan/ton, an increase of 35 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 tons, an increase of 109.21 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,200 tons, an increase of 700 tons [2]. Industry News - As of September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 121.82 tons, an increase of 5.29 tons from the previous week, a year - on - year increase of 4.54% [2]. - As of September 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 49.63 tons, a decrease of 1.97 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year decrease of 3.82%. During this period, there are both cargo arrivals and departures at the ports [2]. - As of September 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 140.15 tons, an increase of 7.15 tons from the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 5.38%. The capacity utilization rate of Chinese urea production enterprises is 85.58%, an increase of 4.36 percentage points from the previous period [2].

尿素产业日报 2025-09-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1673 | 15 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -51 | 4 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 300158 | -4730 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -43029 | 3584 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7535 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 河南(日,元/吨) | 1620 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1610 | 0 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -63 | -15 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 417.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周, ...

尿素产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1658 | -2 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -2 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 304888 | -2508 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -46613 | -590 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 7535 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1660 | -20 河南(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -20 山东(日,元/吨) | 1620 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1630 | -20 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -40 | -19 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 387.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 417.5 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年09月21日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：趋势偏弱 • 本周(20250911-0917)，中国尿素生产企业产量：133万吨，较上期涨3.07万吨，环比涨2.36%。周期内新增1家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复6家（装置）企 业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量明显上涨。下周，中国尿素周产量预计140-141万吨附近，较本期明显上涨。下个周期预计1家企业计划停车， 4-5家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量大概率会有明显增加。（隆众资讯） • 内需方面，内需持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显下滑。此外，复 合肥行业近期产成品销售压力较大，开工率维持低位，对尿素原料采购需求较为有限，对高价尿素货源接受度低。 • 出口方面，目前三 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Market Weekly Report - Report Date: September 19, 2025 - Researcher: Lin Jingyi 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level this week, with prices first rising and then falling. The average price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,610 - 1,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - In the short term, domestic urea production is expected to increase as some idle plants resume operation. Agricultural demand is scattered, and industrial demand improvement is below expectations. Although there is concentrated export shipping, overall demand is less than supply, and enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate [6]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,690 yuan in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market fluctuated at a low level this week, with prices first rising and then falling. The average price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,610 - 1,640 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5 yuan/ton [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Domestic urea daily production is expected to increase. Agricultural demand is scattered, and industrial demand improvement is below expectations. Although there is concentrated export shipping, overall demand is less than supply, and enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,650 - 1,690 yuan in the short term [6]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.12% [9]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of September 19, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 61 [12]. - **Open Interest Analysis**: Not elaborated in detail in the report. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 19, there were 7,810 urea warehouse receipts in Zhengzhou, a decrease of 1,081 from last week [20]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of September 18, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1,650 yuan/ton, unchanged [25]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of September 18, the FOB price of urea in China was 423.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.5 US dollars/ton from last week [28]. - **Basis**: As of September 18, the urea basis was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Coal Price**: As of September 17, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 675 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of September 18, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 2.94 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: As of September 18, China's urea production was 1.33 million tons, an increase of 30,700 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 2.36%; the capacity utilization rate was 81.22%, an increase of 1.88% from the previous period [39]. - **Enterprise and Port Inventories**: As of September 18, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 516,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,400 tons, a decrease of 6.08%; as of September 17, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1653 million tons, an increase of 32,600 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 2.88% [42]. - **Export Situation**: In July 2025, China's urea export volume was 567,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 756.80% and a year - on - year increase of 614.36% [45]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Compound Fertilizer and Melamine Capacity Utilization**: As of September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 38.63%, a week - on - week increase of 0.81 percentage points; the average weekly capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from last week [50].

企业出口订单将执行到本月底。本周尿素企业库存继续小幅增加，局部低价吸引下游适当补仓，但国内整 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 体需求不及供应，尿素日产仍有提升趋势，加之尿素企业面临国庆收单，预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1670 | -11 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -55 | -2 -1231 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 286823 | 5335 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -40881 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8188 | -80 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1680 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1660 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) ...

尿素产业日报 2025-09-17 当补仓，另外部分农业流向增加，尿素企业出货阶段性好转，但国内整体需求不及供应，尿素日产仍有提 数据来源于第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 升趋势，加之尿素企业面临国庆收单，预计短期尿素企业库存或继续累积。UR2601合约短线预计在1650-1 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 700区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season, and reserve demand has not started significantly. The domestic market trading activity is low, providing limited support to the urea market. Industrial demand improvement is less than expected. Although the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers has rebounded month - on - month, enterprises mainly produce based on sales, and the short - term adjustment of the start - up rate is expected to be limited. Last week, enterprise inventories varied, but overall inventory increased. Affected by the Indian tender and export policies, urea exports continued to accelerate. Some enterprises' inventories decreased due to fulfilling export orders, while those without exports saw slow inventory growth due to the slow progress of domestic demand. Due to the low domestic market trading sentiment, the urea shipment speed is affected, and short - term inventory still has a slight upward trend. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1700 in the short term [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1686 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the 1 - 5 spread is - 51 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 277334 lots, down 7644 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 43212; the exchange warehouse receipt is 8279 pieces, down 334 pieces [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1670 yuan/ton (unchanged), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1640 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan/ton), 1650 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton), and 1650 yuan/ton (unchanged) respectively. The main contract basis is - 36 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. FOB Baltic is 396.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged), and FOB China main port is 423.5 US dollars/ton (unchanged) [2] Industry Situation - The port inventory is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons; the enterprise inventory is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons. The urea enterprise start - up rate is 79.34%, up 1.24%; the daily urea output is 185600 tons, up 2900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 million tons, up 50%; the monthly output is 5928680 tons, down 123400 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 37.82%, up 4.74%; the melamine start - up rate is 55.38%, down 3.6%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 165 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 16 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 531.33 million tons, up 109.21 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 27500 tons, down 800 tons [2] Industry News - As of September 10, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 113.27 million tons, up 3.77 million tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 3.44%. As of September 11, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 54.94 million tons, down 7.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.52%. As of September 11, some recently shut - down urea production devices in China have resumed, and the domestic daily urea output has increased. This week, it is expected that 1 enterprise will plan to shut down and 5 - 6 shut - down enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the output may increase [2] Suggestions for Attention - Pay attention to the Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate on Thursday [2]

尿素产业日报 2025-09-15 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1683 | 20 郑州尿素1-5价差(日,元/吨) | -48 | 7 7220 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 284978 | -15607 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -46633 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 8613 | -234 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1670 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1650 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1640 | -20 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1650 | -10 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -43 | -40 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 396.5 | -3.5 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 423.5 | 8.5 | | 产业情况 ...