Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week's view was that high prices were being resisted and spot price increases were losing momentum; this week's view is that downstream demand is slowing and urea prices are correcting [3] - Market sentiment has cooled as factory prices have been continuously raised, with mainstream urea spot factory quotes in major regions being weakly stable and trading lackluster [3] - Gas - fired plants are starting to undergo maintenance, with a daily output of around 1.95 million tons. The impact of the Indian tender on domestic exports is small [3] - In the short term, domestic demand is stable, agricultural demand is rigid, compound fertilizer production is rising, and urea prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium term, overall demand will be weak, and the urea fundamentals remain loose [3] - Trading strategies: for single - sided trading, short at high prices but do not chase short positions; for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach [3] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Analysis**: High prices are being resisted, downstream demand is slowing, and the market sentiment is cooling. Gas - fired plants are under maintenance, and the Indian tender has little impact on domestic exports. Short - term demand is stable, while medium - term demand is weak [3] - **Trading Strategies**: Single - sided trading, short at high prices without chasing short positions; arbitrage and over - the - counter trading, wait - and - see [3] 2. Core Data Changes - **Supply**: In the 48th week of 2025 (20251127 - 1203), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 86.70%, a 0.50% week - on - week decrease; that of gas - based urea was 65.12%, a 6.65% week - on - week decrease. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 85.27%, a 1.40% week - on - week increase [4] - **Demand**: In the 47th week of 2025 (20251114 - 1120), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 62.20%, a 4.72 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 34.61%, a 4.29 - percentage - point week - on - week increase. As of December 5, 2025, the urea demand of sample compound fertilizer producers in Linyi, Shandong was 1210 tons, a 18.24% week - on - week decrease. This week (20251128 - 20251205), the urea arrival volume in Northeast China was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 45,000 tons from the previous week. As of December 3, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 7.35 days, a 10.53% week - on - week increase [4] - **Inventory**: On December 3, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.2905 million tons, a 5.38% week - on - week decrease. As of December 4, 2025 (the 49th week), the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons, a 50,000 - ton week - on - week increase [4] - **Valuation**: The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal is weak, the decline of Yulin pulverized coal has widened, the urea spot price has rebounded, and the urea production profit has expanded. The fixed - bed production breaks even, the water - coal - slurry production has a profit of 70 yuan/ton, and the entrained - flow bed production has a profit of 300 yuan/ton. The basis has converged to around 0 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread is - 50 yuan/ton [4] 3. Other Data (Directory Items 7 - 20) - No detailed data content provided for these items, so no specific summary can be made.

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea spot prices have increased, but the sentiment for taking delivery has slowed. The operating rates of compound fertilizer in Northeast China and Hubei have continued to rise, and production scheduling in Shandong has increased, leading to an overall improvement in the operating rate. The melamine plant has resumed production, with the operating rate rebounding and rigid demand for procurement. The off - season storage continues to purchase. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to - long term. The gas - based plant maintenance in the fourth quarter will gradually start in December. Due to the follow - up of reserve demand, export stocking, and the improvement of compound fertilizer operating rate, the sales of urea enterprises have improved, with factory inventories decreasing and port inventories slightly increasing. The export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation, which is expected to support the spot market. Currently, new order procurement has slightly slowed down, and continuous attention should be paid to the domestic spot procurement sentiment and rhythm [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - Relevant figures include the market price of small - particle urea in Shandong and Henan, the basis of Shandong and Henan main - continuous contracts, the price of the urea main - continuous contract, and the 1 - 5, 5 - 9, 9 - 1 spreads [6][7][8][13][15] 2. Urea Production - Relevant figures are the weekly urea production and the loss of urea plant maintenance [17][20] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Relevant figures cover production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][24][30][32] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - Relevant figures include the FOB price of small - particle urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR price of large - particle urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB price of small - particle and large - particle urea in China, the price differences, and the export profit and disk export profit [29][34][37][44] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Relevant figures are the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine, and the number of days of pending orders [45][46][47] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Relevant figures include upstream factory inventories, port inventories, the raw material inventory days of urea downstream manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, the holding volume of the main contract, and the trading volume of the main contract [50][53][56] Market Data Price and Basis - On December 4, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,688 yuan/ton (- 4). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,710 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,710 yuan/ton (+ 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,700 yuan/ton (+ 20). The price of small - piece anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was 22 yuan/ton (+ 34), in Henan was 22 yuan/ton (+ 24), and in Jiangsu was 12 yuan/ton (+ 24). The urea production profit was 180 yuan/ton (+ 30), and the export profit was 928 yuan/ton (- 3) [1] Supply Side - As of December 4, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.82% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.2905 million tons (- 73,400 tons), and the port sample inventory was 105,000 tons (+ 5,000 tons) [1] Demand Side - As of December 4, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 40.53% (+ 3.47%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 61.66% (+ 0.86%), and the number of days of advance orders of urea enterprises was 7.35 days (+ 0.70) [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Range - bound oscillation - Inter - delivery: Wait - and - see - Inter - commodity: None [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating bullish" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The domestic urea production decline, the agricultural demand is in the off - season, while the industrial demand is gradually increasing. The latest India tender price meets market expectations, and the short - term urea price will be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton. It is recommended to focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2601 rose 10 yuan to 1692 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China's mainstream area rose to 1690 yuan/ton. The long - position decreased by 3452 lots to 211,900 lots, and the short - position decreased by 3346 lots to 234,500 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 199,000 tons, a decrease of 0.44 compared to the previous working day and an increase of 14,500 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate is 82.28%, a 0.67% increase compared to 81.6% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.2905 million tons, a decrease of 73,400 tons, a 5.38% month - on - month decrease. The inventory of urea port samples is 100,000 tons, remaining unchanged month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 37.1%, a 2.4% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 57.4%, a 4.2% month - on - month increase [1] - India Tender: On November 20th, India's IPL held a urea import tender. The lowest CFR prices were 418.40 US dollars/ton on the east coast and 419.50 US dollars/ton on the west coast, both from AGRIFIELD, with a total of 24 suppliers [1] - Economic Data: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from the previous month. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, and the composite PMI output index was 49.7%. The overall economic climate was stable [1] Market Logic - With the decline in domestic urea production, the off - season in agriculture, and the increasing industrial demand, combined with the in - line - with - expectation India tender price, the short - term urea price is expected to be oscillating bullish, with a reference range of 1650 - 1740 yuan/ton [1] Trading Strategy - Focus on going long on the far - month contracts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating for urea is "interval shock and bullish", the cross - period rating is "wait - and - see", and the cross - variety rating is "none" [3] Core View - Urea spot prices are firm, but new order transactions are slowing down. With the restart of some production facilities in the compound fertilizer industry and the entry of off - season storage, the shipment of urea enterprises has improved, and factory inventories have decreased. The export quota news at the end of the year improves the export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose [2] Summary by Related Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On December 2, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1687 yuan/ton (+12). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1680 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1680 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1680 yuan/ton (+0). The basis in Shandong was - 7 yuan/ton (-22), in Henan was - 7 yuan/ton (-12), and in Jiangsu was - 7 yuan/ton (-12) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of December 2, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.71% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of December 2, 2025, the urea production profit was 150 yuan/ton (-10). The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 37.06% (+2.45%), and the melamine capacity utilization rate was 60.80% (-1.40%) [1] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. The export profit was 931 yuan/ton (-21) [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of December 2, 2025, the number of pre - received order days of urea enterprises was 6.65 days (-0.47) [1] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of December 2, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 136.39 million tons (-7.33), and the port sample inventory was 10.00 million tons (+0.00) [1]

Report Summary Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [2][3] Core Viewpoints - Some domestic urea production decreased slightly due to partial device maintenance. Next week, 4 enterprises plan to stop production and 4 may resume, with production expected to fluctuate slightly considering short - term faults [3] - Northeast reserve demand procurement was concentrated recently, but the purchase volume may slow down after appropriate replenishment [3] - Compound fertilizer's start - up rate increased month - on - month, and enterprises are scheduling winter - storage fertilizer production. Short - term capacity utilization is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - With new export quotas, export demand is increasing. Due to reserve demand and downstream replenishment, urea enterprise inventory continued to decline, and short - term inventory is expected to continue to decrease slightly [3] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1690 in the short term [3] Directory Summaries 1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou urea's main contract closing price was 1668 yuan/ton, up 14; 1 - 5 spread was - 59 yuan/ton, up 5; main contract position was 230913 lots, up 1578; top 20 net position was - 27809, down 369; exchange warehouse receipts were 7181, down 209 [3] - The main contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton, down 24 [3] 2. Spot Market - Domestic spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were between 1620 - 1650 yuan/ton, with some prices unchanged and some down 10 yuan/ton [3] - FOB Baltic was 362.5 dollars/ton, and FOB China main port was 400 dollars/ton, both unchanged [3] 3. Industry Situation - Port inventory was 100,000 tons, up 18,000 tons; enterprise inventory was 1.3639 million tons, down 73,300 tons [3] - Urea enterprise start - up rate was 83.91%, down 0.17%; daily production was 202,900 tons, up 6,200 tons [3] - Urea export volume was 1.2 million tons, down 17%; monthly production was 5.87127 million tons, up 132,600 tons [3] 4. Downstream Situation - Compound fertilizer start - up rate was 34.61%, up 4.29; melamine start - up rate was 62.2%, up 4.72 [3] - Compound fertilizer weekly profit was 30 yuan/ton, down 25; melamine's weekly profit from purchasing urea externally was 70 yuan/ton, down 63 [3] - Monthly compound fertilizer production was 3.6287 million tons, down 1.0331 million tons; weekly melamine production was 32,000 tons, up 2,800 tons [3] 5. Industry News - As of November 26, enterprise inventory decreased by 73,300 tons week - on - week, a 5.10% decline [3] - As of November 27, port inventory was 100,000 tons, unchanged. With the end of legal inspections, port inventory may increase [3] - As of November 27, production was 1.417 million tons, down 0.34 million tons week - on - week; capacity utilization was 83.71%, down 0.20% [3] 6. Suggested Attention Attention should be paid to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and start - up rate on Thursday [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is high. Agricultural demand is in the off - season with only sporadic restocking. Affected by environmental protection factors, the compound fertilizer operating rate has decreased slightly, and the operating load is expected to increase slowly. With the new quota in place, export demand is gradually increasing. [2] - Last week, urea enterprise inventories decreased due to the new export policy, but new orders slowed down after the price increase, and some enterprise inventories rebounded. Considering large pending orders, enterprises are actively shipping, and short - term enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1640 - 1680. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1662 yuan/ton (unchanged), the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton (increased by 1), the main contract position is 250907 lots (decreased by 3842), the top 20 net position is - 34881, and the exchange warehouse receipts are 7183 (unchanged). [2] 现货市场 - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, and Jiangsu decreased by 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton respectively, while the price in Shandong increased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price in Anhui remained unchanged. The main contract basis is - 52 yuan/ton (increased by 20). FOB prices in the Baltic and Chinese main ports remained unchanged at 367.5 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively. [2] Industrial Situation - Port inventory is 8.2 million tons (increased by 0.3 million tons, a 3.8% increase), and enterprise inventory is 148.36 million tons (decreased by 9.45 million tons, a 5.99% decrease). The urea enterprise operating rate is 84.08% (increased by 1.37%), the daily production is 196700 tons (increased by 13200 tons), the export volume is 137 million tons (increased by 57), and the monthly output is 5738670 tons (decreased by 190010 tons). [2] 下游情况 - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 30.32% (decreased by 0.72%), the melamine operating rate is 57.48% (increased by 4.28%). The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 55 yuan/ton (decreased by 28), and the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is 133 yuan/ton (decreased by 32). The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 466.18 million tons (decreased by 65.15 million tons), and the weekly output of melamine is 29200 tons (increased by 2200 tons). [2] 行业消息 - As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 million tons, a 5.99% decrease from last week. As of November 13, the port sample inventory was 8.2 million tons, a 3.8% increase from last week. The production of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 1.65% from the previous period, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 1.37%. [2] 提示关注 - Pay attention to Longzhong enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily production, and operating rate on Thursday. [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market was strong first and then weak, with the trading center rising slightly. The average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. The spot trading atmosphere cooled, and prices in some regions declined slightly [5]. - The resumption of previously overhauled plants led to an increase in domestic urea production. Considering planned plant changes and potential short - term faults, the probability of production increase is high next week. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the increase in compound fertilizer operating load may be slow due to environmental protection. Export demand is gradually increasing with the new quota. Urea enterprise inventories decreased this week, and short - term continued slight destocking is expected [5]. - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1625 - 1680 in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market was first strong and then weak, with the average price of mainstream small and medium - sized granules in Shandong rising by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week. Spot trading cooled, and some regional prices declined slightly [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Production is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is in the off - season, compound fertilizer operating load increase may be slow, and export demand is rising. Urea enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline slightly in the short term [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the 1625 - 1680 range in the short term [5]. 3.2. Futures Market Situation - **Price Trend**: The price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract oscillated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 0.9% [8]. - **Inter - period Spread**: As of November 14, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 75 [11]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 14, there were 7183 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 4598 compared to last week [20]. 3.3. Spot Market Situation - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 13, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1600 yuan/ton (+20), and in Jiangsu was 1590 yuan/ton (+20) [26]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 13, the FOB China price of urea was 385 dollars/ton, an increase of 7.5 dollars/ton compared to last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of November 13, the urea basis was - 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream Situation - **Coal Price**: As of November 12, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 700 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton compared to last week [38]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of November 13, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.59 dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.27 dollars/million British thermal units compared to last week [38]. 3.5. Industry Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: As of November 13, China's urea production was 137.69 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.24 tons (1.65%), and the capacity utilization rate was 84.08%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [41]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 8.2 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (3.8%). As of November 12, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 148.36 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.45 tons (5.99%) [44]. - **Export**: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, a month - on - month increase of 72.12%, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 93.01% [47]. 3.6. Downstream Situation - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 13, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 30.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The increase in operating load may be slow next week [50]. - **Melamine**: As of November 13, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 57.48%, an increase of 4.28 percentage points compared to last week [50].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (November 12, 2025) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Industry: Urea in the Energy and Chemical Sector [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The market sentiment for urea has cooled down after the impact of the new export quota news faded. The supply is currently abundant with increasing daily production, while the demand is weakening. The domestic urea market is expected to see a decline in prices in the short - term, although the fourth batch of export quotas may have a short - term positive impact on market sentiment [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose and then fell, closing at 1655 (+7/+0.42%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices were weakly stable with general trading. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized 1560 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized 1500 - 1560 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized 1540 - 1550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 12, the daily urea production in the industry was 19.81 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons from the previous working day and 1.59 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.68%, 4.06% higher than 80.62% in the same period last year [4]. Logic Analysis - **Supply Side**: The maintenance devices are gradually returning, and the daily average production has increased to around 19.9 tons. The urea production enterprise inventory has increased slightly by 20,000 tons to around 1.58 million tons, remaining at a high level [5]. - **Demand Side**: The fourth batch of export quotas is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The international price's impact on the domestic market has increased again. However, the compound fertilizer production in central and northern China has basically ended, the grass - roots stocking is coming to an end, the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for raw materials is low [5]. - **Regional Market**: In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory prices are expected to decline; in Henan, the ex - factory prices are expected to follow the downward trend; in the delivery area and its surrounding areas, the ex - factory prices are expected to remain stable for now [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - sided**: Go short [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong was 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton, with the average price down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - The resumption of previously overhauled plants has boosted domestic urea production. Next week, it is expected that 1 enterprise's plant will be shut down, and 3 - 5 shut - down enterprises' plants may resume production. Considering short - term enterprise malfunctions, the probability of increased production is high. [6] - Agricultural demand release has slowed down, and urea enterprises have appropriately reduced prices for transactions. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has recovered due to improved sales, and industrial demand has increased moderately. However, considering new orders, the operating rate of compound fertilizers is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week. [6] - This week, urea enterprise inventories increased slightly. Agricultural rigid demand is gradually decreasing, while industrial and reserve demand is increasing moderately. Some urea enterprises maintain a weak balance between production and sales, and in a few regions, shipments are blocked due to environmental protection warnings, leading to an increase in enterprise inventories. In the short term, urea enterprise inventories may continue to accumulate. [6] - The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate within the range of 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Trend**: The domestic urea market fluctuated slightly within a range this week, with the average price in Shandong down 10 yuan/ton week - on - week. [6] - **Supply**: Production is likely to increase next week due to the resumption of previously shut - down plants and considering potential malfunctions. [6] - **Demand**: Agricultural demand is weakening, while industrial demand from compound fertilizers has increased moderately but may decline next week. [6] - **Inventory**: Enterprise inventories increased slightly this week and may continue to accumulate in the short term. [6] - **Strategy**: The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1640 - 1700 in the short term. [6] 3.2 Futures Market - **Price Movement**: The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 2.58% this week [9]. - **Inter - delivery Spread**: As of November 7, the UR 1 - 5 spread was - 67 [13]. - **Position Analysis**: No specific information on position analysis was summarized from the text. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of November 7, there were 4585 warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea, an increase of 4585 from last week [19]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Price**: As of November 6, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1580 yuan/ton (down 20), and in Jiangsu was 1570 yuan/ton (down 20) [25]. - **Foreign Spot Price**: As of November 6, the FOB China price of urea was 377.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars/ton from last week [29]. - **Basis**: As of November 6, the urea basis was - 64 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from last week [33]. 3.4 Upstream Market - **Coal Price**: As of November 5, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 695 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from last week [36]. - **Natural Gas Price**: As of November 6, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 4.41 dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.35 dollars/million British thermal units from last week [36]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: As of November 6, China's urea production was 135.45 tons, up 3.92 tons (2.98% week - on - week), and the capacity utilization rate was 82.71%, up 2.39% from the previous period [39]. - **Inventory**: As of November 6, the port sample inventory was 7.9 tons, down 3.1 tons (28.18% week - on - week); as of November 5, the total enterprise inventory was 157.81 tons, up 2.38 tons (1.53% week - on - week) [43]. - **Export**: In September 2025, urea exports were 137.12 tons, up 72.12% month - on - month, and the average export price was 424.93 dollars/ton, up 93.01% month - on - month [46]. 3.6 Downstream Market - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 6, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04%, stable week - on - week, and is expected to decline steadily or slightly next week [49]. - **Melamine**: As of November 6, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 53.20%, up 3.22 percentage points from last week [49].

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report - Report Date: November 6, 2025 - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are falling from high levels, and the comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. However, the domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The positive factors include strong international prices and the rebound of agricultural demand, while the negative factor is the domestic oversupply. The main logic lies in international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are falling from high levels, and comprehensive inventory has slightly decreased. Agricultural demand has rebounded due to weather influence, while industrial demand is weak. The export volume has increased due to the large price difference between domestic and international markets, and the export expectation is gradually being realized. The domestic urea market still has an overall oversupply situation. The spot price of the delivery product is 1570 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is -63, and the premium/discount ratio is -4.0%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The industrial demand is weak, the agricultural demand is rebounding, the international urea price is strong, and the export volume has increased. However, the domestic oversupply situation is still obvious. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1570, with no change; the Shandong spot price is 1580 (+10); the Henan spot price is 1570, with no change; the FOB China price is 2691 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1633 (+3), the basis is -63 (-3); the price of the UR05 contract is 1715 (+5); the price of the UR09 contract is 1739 (-1) [6]. | | **Inventory** | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.664 million tons (-176,000 tons), the UR manufacturer inventory is 1.554 million tons, and the UR port inventory is 110,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]