Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic urea market rose first and then declined this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton by Thursday, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week. - New plant overhauls have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea daily output. Next week, the probability of increased production is high as one shut - down enterprise will resume production and there are no planned plant shutdowns, barring short - term enterprise malfunctions. - Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - peak, with only sporadic local demand. During the autumn fertilizer production stage, the compound fertilizer industry makes appropriate low - price purchases, but the demand for urea is relatively small as the start - up rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increases slowly. - Although domestic urea demand is weak, lower prices have stimulated downstream low - price purchasing enthusiasm. The unexpectedly high Indian urea tender price has boosted market sentiment, and some plant overhauls have led to a slight decline in domestic urea enterprise inventories this week. However, considering limited short - term trading volume and weak domestic demand, enterprises may accumulate inventories again. - The report suggests trading the UR2509 contract in the 1700 - 1770 range [6][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Week - to - Week Highlights - Strategy: Trade the UR2509 contract in the 1700 - 1770 range [6]. - Market review: The domestic urea market rose first and then declined. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized granules in Shandong dropped to 1740 - 1780 yuan/ton by Thursday, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton week - on - week [7]. - Outlook: Output may increase next week, demand is weak, but lower prices and the Indian tender have led to a slight inventory decline this week, and inventories may accumulate again [7]. 3.2. Futures Market - Price movement: The main contract price of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed higher this week, up 1.11% week - on - week [10]. - Inter - delivery spread: As of August 8, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 23 [13]. - Position analysis: No specific content on position analysis is summarized other than the topic. - Warehouse receipts: As of August 7, there were 3373 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, unchanged from last week [21]. 3.3. Spot Market - Domestic price: As of August 7, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 1780 yuan/ton, unchanged [26]. - Overseas price: As of August 7, the FOB China price of urea was 410 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton from last week [29]. - Basis: As of August 7, the urea basis was 43 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.4. Upstream - Coal and natural gas prices: As of August 6, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5500 kcal was 670 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from last week. As of August 7, the NYMEX natural gas closed at 3.08 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.02 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. 3.5. Industry - Capacity utilization and output: As of August 7, China's urea production was 132.85 million tons, down 2.63 million tons from the previous period, a 1.94% week - on - week decrease. The capacity utilization rate was 81.98%, down 1.62% from the previous period [41]. - Inventory: As of August 7, the port sample inventory was 48.3 million tons, down 1 million tons, a 2.03% week - on - week decrease. As of August 6, the total enterprise inventory was 88.76 million tons, down 2.97 million tons, a 3.24% week - on - week decrease [44]. - Export: In June 2025, urea exports were 66,240.55 tons, up 2618.13% month - on - month; the export average price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, up 4662.05% month - on - month [47]. 3.6. Downstream - Compound fertilizer and melamine start - up rates: As of August 7, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points week - on - week. The melamine capacity utilization rate was 63.50% on average this week, down 1.70 percentage points from last week [50].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price showed a weak trend. In August, there will be both maintenance and restart of urea production facilities, and the daily output is expected to fluctuate around 19 - 20 million tons [4]. - The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased compared to the previous period, while the port inventory decreased to 493,000 tons, indicating that the export performance was below expectations [4]. - The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended. Although the production start - up of autumn compound fertilizers has increased, the finished product inventory still faces significant pressure [4]. - In the short term, affected by weak supply - demand and the overall correction in the commodity market, the urea futures price will continue to fluctuate at a low level. However, there is an expected improvement in autumn fertilizers and potential support from exports. The UR2509 contract should pay attention to the support around 1,680 - 1,700 yuan/ton, and subsequent attention should be paid to whether autumn fertilizers can bring a phased rebound opportunity [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: Recently, there have been many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly [4]. - **Demand**: The demand for agricultural top - dressing has ended, and attention should be paid to the production of autumn fertilizers [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises increased from a decreasing trend, and the port inventory decreased [4]. - **Cost and Profit**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend, and urea profits decreased compared to the previous period [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Market Price**: The domestic urea market price is running weakly, and international urea prices are showing mixed trends [6][10]. - **Supply**: Recently, there are many maintenance facilities, and the supply has decreased significantly. The weekly urea output is 1.3548 million tons (+0.01%), including 1.0451 million tons of coal - based urea output (-1.62%) and 309,700 tons of gas - based urea output (+5.92%), with an average daily output of 194,000 tons [16][20]. - **Inventory**: The urea enterprise inventory is 917,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,500 tons. The port inventory is 493,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 50,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises are 6.12 days (a week - on - week increase of 3.03%), and the number of days of orders to be delivered by enterprises has increased slightly [31]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 38.68% (+5.10%), and the finished product inventory is 777,200 tons (a week - on - week increase of 35,100 tons). The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has increased significantly, and the finished product inventory continues to accumulate. The operating rate of melamine is 63.50% (-1.70%), with a slight decline, and downstream procurement is based on rigid demand [34]. - **Raw Material**: Coal prices are stable with a slight upward trend [36]. - **Profit**: Urea profits decreased slightly compared to the previous period [42]. - **Spread Analysis**: The 9 - 1 spread is running weakly, and the 09 basis has limited changes [45].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of urea is neutral. With the cooling of speculative demand for some varieties, urea prices are expected to be weak first and then strong, with support at the bottom and pressure at the top [47] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Market Review - In July, the urea market was initially strong due to expectations of eliminating backward production capacity and anti - involution. The futures price of urea fluctuated upward, reaching a maximum of 1828 yuan/ton. Then, market sentiment cooled, and the price dropped. On August 1st, the 09 - contract of urea closed at 1709 yuan/ton, 12 yuan/ton lower than at the beginning of the previous month. The spot price also rose first and then fell, with the Henan market price at 1760 yuan/ton, close to the level at the beginning of the previous month [6] - The basis of the main urea contract (Henan) fluctuated narrowly in July, weakened as the futures price soared, and then strengthened as the futures price declined at the end of the month, with an operating range of 3 - 76 yuan/ton. The 9 - 1 price difference of urea showed a weakening trend, with the closing price difference on July 31st at - 22 yuan/ton, 61 yuan/ton smaller than at the beginning of the month [9][13] 2. Urea Production Capacity and Output Analysis - In July, urea production device maintenance increased, and the operating rate first decreased and then increased. The natural - gas - based urea operating rate also showed the same trend. Some enterprises such as Xinjiang Xinji Energy have production capacity commissioning plans. The daily average output of urea in July was still higher than the historical value, and the monthly output was estimated to be 608.8 tons, a year - on - year increase of 65.6 tons [16][20] 3. Urea Cost - Profit Analysis - In July, the market price of anthracite stopped falling and rose. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 8.94%, a month - on - month increase of 1.99 percentage points. The estimated monthly average gross profit margin of gas - based urea was - 7.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.98 percentage points [24] 4. Urea Agricultural Demand Analysis - From January to June 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was 3593 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 425 tons. In July, the production - sales ratio of urea was between 95.3% - 96.6%. The national grain sown area increased in 2024, and with the improvement of agricultural production conditions, the demand for fertilizers for summer crops such as corn and rice was released [26][29] 5. Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - In July, the operating rate of compound fertilizer increased continuously from the bottom, and the estimated monthly output was 328 tons, a year - on - year increase of 34 tons. The average operating rate of melamine enterprises in July was 61.37%, and it is expected to remain above 60% in August [32][35] 6. Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to June 2025, the total export of fertilizers in China was 1712.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 452 tons. The export volume of urea was 7.73 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.1 tons [39] 7. Urea Inventory Level Analysis - At the end of July, the enterprise inventory of urea was 75.7 tons, a decrease of 11.6 tons from the beginning of the month. The port inventory was 52 tons, close to the export peak level in September 2023. The registered warehouse receipts were 3373, equivalent to 6.746 tons of urea [41][44] 8. Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Urea production capacity is expected to continue to be put into operation, and the supply is expected to maintain a year - on - year growth rate of 8 - 12%, with the daily average output at 20 - 21 tons. Demand: Agricultural demand is scattered after the concentrated fertilization period; industrial demand from compound fertilizers is increasing, and other industrial demands fluctuate slightly; export demand is expected to be concentrated from July to August. The overall supply - demand pattern is neutral, and the price is expected to be weak first and then strong [47]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a weekly report on the urea market from July 19 - 25, 2025, released by Ruida Futures Research Institute [2] - The researcher is Lin Jingyi, with futures qualification number F03139610 and investment consulting certificate number Z0021558 [2] Group 2: Weekly Summary - This week, the domestic urea market showed an oscillating upward trend. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong rose to 1800 - 1850 yuan/ton, with an average price increase of 40 yuan/ton week - on - week [6] - New plant overhauls have led to a slight decrease in domestic urea daily output. Next week, 2 enterprises plan to stop production, and 2 stopped enterprises will resume production. Considering short - term enterprise failures, the probability of output reduction is high [6] - Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only limited local agricultural top - dressing demand. The rigid demand support is limited. The compound fertilizer industry is in the autumn fertilizer production stage, with stable and rising operating rates, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [6] - Recently, domestic urea demand is weak, and the overall order - taking and shipment of urea factories have slowed down. Although domestic urea enterprise inventories continue to decline due to some goods being exported and concentrated at ports, the decline has narrowed [6] - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1770 - 1830 yuan [6] Group 3: Futures Market - This week, the price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures oscillated and closed higher, with a weekly increase of 3.32% [10] - As of July 25, the UR 9 - 1 spread was - 4 [14] - As of July 25, there were 2523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 0 compared with last week [20] Group 4: Spot Market - As of July 24, the mainstream price in Shandong was 1810 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was 1820 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton [25] - As of July 24, the FOB China price of urea was 435 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton compared with last week [28] - As of July 24, the urea basis was 25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton compared with last week [32] Group 5: Upstream Market - As of July 23, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [36] - As of July 24, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.12 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.39 US dollars/million British thermal units compared with last week [36] Group 6: Industry Situation - As of July 24, China's urea production was 135.47 tons, a decrease of 1.40 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.87% from the previous period, and the downward trend continued [39] - As of July 24, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 54.3 tons, an increase of 0.2 tons week - on - week, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. The overall port inventory changed little [43] - As of July 23, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 85.88 tons, a decrease of 3.67 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 4.10%. The inventory continued to decline, but the decline narrowed [43] - In June 2025, urea exports were 66240.55 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2618.13%; the export average price was 366.28 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4662.05% [46] Group 7: Downstream Market - As of July 24, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.58%, a week - on - week increase of 1.03 percentage points. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week, but high - temperature and high - humidity weather still restricts some production [49] - As of July 24, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 65.20%, an increase of 0.96 percentage points from last week [49]

| | | 尿素产业日报 2025-07-24 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1785 | 12 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | -11 | -5 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 173791 | -7009 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -30835 | 5007 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 0 山东(日,元/吨) | 1830 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 57 | 34 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万 ...

• 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面反弹。虽然国际尿素价格依然偏强，但国内第二批出口配额120吨显 著低于第一批的200万吨，发放不及预期。国内供应方面，日产及开工率仍处于偏高位置，库存 再度累库。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工持续回落，三聚氰胺开工亦回落，农业需求再次转淡。 国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显，出口政策未超预期放开。交割品现货1710（-0），基本面整体偏 空； • 2. 基差： UR2509合约基差-107，升贴水比例-6.3%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.2万吨（+18.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面反弹，国际尿素价格偏强，出口配额不及预期，国内整体供过于 求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： 尿素早报 ...

尿素产业日报 2025-07-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1817 | 5 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 8 | -24 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 191764 | -4185 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -35180 | -6933 | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 2523 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 30 河南(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 30 山东(日,元/吨) | 1840 | 10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 30 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 23 | 5 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 437.5 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 435 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price stopped falling and rebounded. With the resumption of some previously shut - down plants, supply is expected to increase. On the demand side, agricultural top - dressing demand is gradually weakening, while the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has rebounded from a low level, and the inventory of autumn fertilizer has increased. The expected export quota still has a certain impact on the market, and the increase in goods shipped to ports has led to a continuous reduction in urea enterprise inventories. In the short term, although facing the pressure of increased supply and weakening agricultural top - dressing demand, the marginal improvement of autumn fertilizer and export demand still strongly support urea. Coupled with the overall strong commodity atmosphere driven by macro - policy expectations, the futures price may continue to fluctuate strongly in the range of 1720 - 1850 yuan/ton. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in export quotas and raw material procurement for autumn fertilizer [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View Summary - Supply: Some previously shut - down plants are resuming production, and supply is expected to increase [5]. - Demand: Agricultural top - dressing demand is marginally weakening, and attention should be paid to the pre - sales progress of autumn fertilizer. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 32.55% (+2.72%), and the finished product inventory is 73.58 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6.32 tons). The operating rate of melamine is 64.24% (+1.68%) [5][35]. - Inventory: Port inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises has eased. Urea enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.22 tons. Port inventory is 54.1 tons (a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons). The mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.06 days (a month - on - month increase of 2.02%) [5][32]. - Cost and Profit: Coal prices are stable and slightly strong, and urea profits have increased month - on - month [5]. - Basis and Spread: The 9 - 1 spread fluctuates, and the 09 basis changes little [5]. - Overall Logic: This week, the domestic urea spot market price stopped falling and rebounded. Supply is expected to increase with the resumption of some plants. The export quota expectation still disturbs the market, and the inventory of urea enterprises continues to decline. Although facing supply increase and weakening agricultural top - dressing demand, autumn fertilizer improvement and export demand support urea, and the futures price may fluctuate in the 1720 - 1850 yuan/ton range [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition 3.2.1 Domestic Urea Market Price - This week, the domestic urea market price was weakly operating, and relevant price trend charts for different regions from 2021 - 2025 are provided [7][8]. 3.2.2 International Urea Price - International urea prices showed a mixed trend, with price trend charts of CFR Brazil, FOB Baltic, FOB Iran, FOB China from 2019 - 2025 provided, as well as the price difference between FOB China and FOB Arabian Gulf and FOB Baltic from 2021 - 2025 [11][12]. 3.2.3 Supply - Some previously shut - down plants are resuming production, and supply is expected to increase. The weekly urea output is 136.87 tons (-0.95%), of which coal - based urea output is 107.68 tons (+0.42%), and gas - based urea output is 29.19 tons (-5.69%), with an average daily output of 19.6 tons. A urea plant shutdown loss chart from 2021 - 2025 and a sample enterprise shutdown plan table are provided [17][21]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Port inventory continues to increase, and the inventory pressure of urea enterprises has eased. Urea enterprise inventory is 89.55 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.22 tons. Port inventory is 54.1 tons (a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons). The mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 6.06 days (a month - on - month increase of 2.02%). Relevant inventory trend charts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [28][32]. 3.2.5 Demand - Top - dressing demand is marginally weakening, and attention should be paid to the pre - sales progress of autumn fertilizer. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 32.55% (+2.72%), and the finished product inventory is 73.58 tons (a month - on - month increase of 6.32 tons). The operating rate of melamine is 64.24% (+1.68%), and the melamine market is weakly operating. Relevant data trend charts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [34][35]. 3.2.6 Raw Material - Coal prices are on an upward trend, with price trend charts of Yulin steam coal, Yangquan bituminous coal fines, Ordos steam coal, and Jincheng anthracite small pieces from 2021 - 2025 provided [37][38]. 3.2.8 Spread Analysis - The 9 - 1 spread fluctuates, and the 09 basis changes little. Relevant spread trend charts from 2021 - 2025 are provided, as well as the price difference between liquid ammonia and urea, and between urea and ammonium chloride (in terms of pure nitrogen) [46][47]. 3.2.10 Urea - Related Product Spread No specific content other than the title is provided.

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: July 21, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with the second - batch export quota falling short of expectations, although international urea prices remain strong. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors include the strong international price and the marginal changes in domestic demand. The main risk lies in changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures market has been oscillating recently. International prices are strong, but the second - batch domestic export quota of 120,000 tons is significantly lower than the first - batch of 200,000 tons. Domestic supply, in terms of daily production and operating rate, remains at a high level, and inventory has increased again. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand has continued to decline, and agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall supply of domestic urea far exceeds demand, and export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1730 (-30), indicating a generally bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 15, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.9%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.24 million tons (+55,000), which is bearish [4]. - **Futures Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a neutral situation [4]. - **Main Positions**: The net long positions of the UR main contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectations**: The main contract of urea is oscillating. With strong international prices and an under - expected export quota, the overall domestic supply far exceeds demand. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4]. Spot and Futures Market Conditions | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1730 | - 20 | | Shandong Spot | 1740 | - 10 | | Henan Spot | 1730 | 0 | | FOB China | 2586 | - | | UR01 | 1720 | 0 | | UR05 | 1731 | 0 | | UR09 | 1745 | 0 | | Basis (UR09) | - 15 | - 20 | | Warehouse Receipt | 2523 | 0 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.24 million tons | - | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.035 million tons | - | | UR Port Inventory | 0.205 million tons | - | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 million tons | - | 19.5681 million tons | 4.4838 million tons | 18.6% | 24.0519 million tons | 0.2366 million tons | 24.0519 million tons | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 million tons | 8.9% | 22.4 million tons | 4.8794 million tons | 17.9% | 27.2794 million tons | 0.3786 million tons | 27.1374 million tons | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 million tons | 15.5% | 25.8098 million tons | 6.1912 million tons | 19.3% | 32.001 million tons | 0.3783 million tons | 32.0013 million tons | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 million tons | 11.4% | 29.2799 million tons | 3.5241 million tons | 10.7% | 32.804 million tons | 0.3572 million tons | 32.8251 million tons | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 million tons | 8.4% | 29.6546 million tons | 3.3537 million tons | 10.2% | 33.0083 million tons | 0.4462 million tons | 32.9193 million tons | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 million tons | 14.1% | 31.9359 million tons | 2.9313 million tons | 8.4% | 34.8672 million tons | 0.4465 million tons | 34.8669 million tons | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 million tons | 13.5% | 34.25 million tons | 3.6 million tons | 9.5% | 37.85 million tons | 0.514 million tons | 37.7825 million tons | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 million tons | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the domestic urea market declined weakly. By Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. Although the second batch of export quotas has been finalized, due to high pricing, the trading volume of small and medium - sized particles is limited, and the suspension of small - package urea exports has weakened market sentiment [6]. - Recently, new plants have been under maintenance, leading to a slight decrease in the daily domestic urea output. With few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, the output is likely to increase. Domestic agricultural demand is advancing slowly, with only a small amount of demand for top - dressing in some areas, providing limited rigid support. As the production of autumn fertilizers is approaching, the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is rising steadily but slowly due to factors such as frequent raw material price fluctuations and inactive downstream purchasing. The operating rate of melamine has also rebounded, but weak downstream demand may limit further increases. Some urea enterprises' inventories are decreasing rapidly as export orders are being executed. Although local inventories vary, the overall inventory is decreasing, but it is still much higher than the same period in previous years. As the execution of previous export orders nears the end, the inventory reduction speed may slow down, but export expectations still support the price [6]. - It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The domestic urea market declined weakly this week. The mainstream ex - factory price of small and medium - sized urea particles in Shandong dropped to 1,750 - 1,820 yuan/ton, with the average price down 45 yuan/ton week - on - week. The second - batch export quota had limited impact on trading volume due to high pricing, and the suspension of small - package urea exports weakened market sentiment [6]. - **Market Outlook**: New plant maintenance led to a slight decrease in daily output, but with few short - term maintenance plans and some plants restarting, output is likely to increase. Agricultural demand is slow, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer and melamine enterprises is rising but may be limited by downstream demand. Export orders are being executed, leading to inventory reduction, but the inventory reduction speed may slow down later, and export expectations support the price [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1,720 - 1,780 yuan [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures fluctuated and closed down this week, with a weekly decline of 1.58% [10]. - As of July 18, the UR 9 - 1 spread was 25 [12]. - As of July 18, there were 2,523 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, a decrease of 122 from last week [20]. - **Spot Market** - As of July 17, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,800 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton [26]. - As of July 17, the FOB price of urea in China was 410 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week [30]. - As of July 17, the urea basis was 57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from last week [34]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Upstream** - As of July 16, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with a calorific value of 5,500 kcal was 665 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from last week [38]. - As of July 17, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.51 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.14 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [38]. - **Industry** - As of July 17, China's urea output was 1.3687 million tons, a decrease of 13,100 tons from last week, a week - on - week decline of 0.95%. The average daily output was 195,500 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons from last week. The urea capacity utilization rate was 84.46%, a week - on - week decline of 0.80%. Next cycle, the output is likely to increase [41]. - As of July 17, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 541,000 tons, an increase of 52,000 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10.63%. As of July 16, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 895,500 tons, a decrease of 72,200 tons from last week, a week - on - week decrease of 7.46% [45]. - In May 2025, urea exports were 2,436.99 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.18%, and the average export price was 209.07 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 29.54% [48]. - **Downstream** - As of July 17, the domestic compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 32.55%, a week - on - week increase of 2.72 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of melamine was 64.24% on average this week, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from last week [51].