1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view on urea is for a period of sideways consolidation. The short - term price may experience a correction, but the decline is expected to be limited due to strong agricultural demand expectations, and the medium - term trend remains bullish. The future upward drive depends on the continuity of mid - stream restocking. For the 05 contract, the fundamental resistance level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the support level is estimated to be between 1,700 - 1,720 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spreads - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (including Zheng Yuan, Bo Da, Jin Kai, Dong Ping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipt numbers, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][6][18]. Domestic Supply - **Capacity**: The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. Many companies had new capacity additions or device restarts, with a total of 664 million tons of new capacity added in 2025 and an expected 651 million tons in 2026 [22]. - **Production Plan**: A list of urea production enterprise maintenance plans from 2025 to 2026 is provided, including details such as enterprise name, annual production capacity, raw materials, and maintenance reasons [24]. - **Output**: Despite production profits being at the break - even point, the daily output of urea remains at a high level. Charts show historical trends of daily output, capacity utilization, and coal - based and gas - based urea output [25][26]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line has increased. Cost calculations for different production processes (fixed - bed, gas - based, and fluidized - bed) are presented [28]. - **Profit**: The profit corresponding to the urea cash - flow cost is currently in a profitable state, and charts show the profit trends of different production processes [33]. - **Net Import (Export)**: During the reserve period, export policies have tightened. Tables show monthly and annual net import/export data from 2018 to 2025 [38]. Domestic Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand shows seasonal strength. Different regions and crops have different demand patterns throughout the year. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [44][47]. - **Industrial Demand** - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry's fundamentals include capacity utilization, production costs, production margins, and factory inventories [54]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's fundamentals include production margins, market prices, output, and capacity utilization [55]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports show resilience [58]. Inventory - The upstream inventory accumulation pattern continues. As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 98.61 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.61 million tons or 3.53%. As of January 15, 2026, the port inventory was 13.4 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 million tons or 4.29% [62][63]. International Urea - Charts show the historical trends of international urea prices, including FOB prices of large - granular urea in China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, and the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [18][67].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The probability of an increase in urea production is high due to the recovery of some previously overhauled plants and no planned shutdowns in the short term, despite possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with a lukewarm trading atmosphere, and downstream buyers are reluctant to accept high - priced goods, preferring to buy as needed. Industrial demand maintains rigid procurement, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises fluctuates little. Although the inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly and the order collection of enterprises has improved significantly with rising prices, the de - stocking amplitude is limited due to the pre - increased inventory. The downstream chasing trend may slow down with the recent price increase, and the short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1783 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 20 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 236,875 lots, up 4,468 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 20,138 lots, down 1,116 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,200 pieces, up 350 pieces [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are 1750 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu it is 1760 yuan/ton with no change; in Shandong it is 1750 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan. The FOB Baltic price is 367.5 dollars/ton, up 12.5 dollars; the FOB China main port price is 402.5 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a decline of 18.60%. Enterprise inventory is 1.0222 billion tons, up 3,000 tons week - on - week, an increase of 0.29%. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons. The weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0222 million tons, up 0.30 million tons week - on - week, a 0.29% increase, with small fluctuations and varying local inventory changes. As of January 8, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons week - on - week, a 18.60% decline, due to increased departure of port goods and slow factory - to - port rhythm. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3716 million tons, up 12,500 tons, a 0.92% increase, driven by the recovery of some previously overhauled plants [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]

Report Title - "Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Stable Production and Sales, with Pressure on the Upside and Support on the Downside" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Urea检修装置有复产计划，日均产量提升，供应环比增加。各地区农业用备肥跟进，以储备采购为主，复合肥原料补库增加对尿素需求支撑，尿素企业库存水平同比偏低，近期产销偏稳，价格震荡运行，参考区间1730 - 1830元/吨 [2] Summary by Directory Market Changes - 受尿素产销偏稳和化工板块反弹影响，尿素盘面价格周初延续提涨，周尾窄幅回落。1月9日尿素2605合约收盘价1777元/吨，较上周上调28元/吨，涨幅1.6%，期间最高1794元/吨，最低1753元/吨。尿素现货河南市场日均价1730元/吨，较上周上调40元/吨，涨幅2.37% [2][5] - 尿素主力基差走强，1月9日河南市场主力基差 - 47元/吨，周度基差运行区间（ - 64）— （ - 43）元/吨 [2][9] - 尿素09合约价格增幅较大，尿素5 - 9价差走弱，1月9日5 - 9价差23元/吨，周度运行区间20 — 38元/吨 [2][9] Fundamental Changes Supply - 中国尿素开工负荷率84.74%，较上周提升1.46个百分点，其中气头企业开工负荷率51.57%，较上周降低4.83个百分点，尿素日均产量19.59万吨。四川、甘肃等装置检修或减量，湖北、河南等装置复产，下周甘肃和四川均有检修装置计划恢复，预计日产量增加 [2][12] Cost - 无烟煤市场价格降后趋稳运行，截至1月8日，山西晋城S0.4 - 0.5无烟洗小块含税价840 - 900元/吨，较上周价格重心降15元/吨 [2][16] Demand - 主要尿素生产企业平均预收5.6天，尿素企业周度产销率98.4% [17][18] - 农业需求方面，目前以储备采购流向居多 [2][18] - 工业需求方面，复合肥企业产能运行率37.17%，较上周提升3.28个百分点。复合肥库存69.52万吨，较上周基本持平，冬储持续兑现预收，原料市场预期高位波动对市场情绪有一定提振作用，产销持续跟进。三聚氰胺开工提升、脲醛树脂等其他工业需求支撑减弱 [2][18][22] Inventory - 尿素企业库存86.9万吨，较上周减少1.4万吨，同比去年同期减少69万吨。尿素港口库存27.8万吨，较上周减少2万吨。尿素注册仓单12850张，合计25.7万吨，同比去年同期增加5375张，合计10.75万吨 [2][29] Key Points to Follow - 复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 [2]

Group 1: Report Summary - The domestic urea market rose strongly this week, with the mainstream ex-factory price of small and medium-sized granules in Shandong reaching 1,720 - 1,760 yuan/ton by Thursday, up 55 yuan/ton from January 4th. The urea market is expected to have limited short - term fluctuations. The production is likely to increase next week, while the agricultural demand is in the off - season, and the downstream is resistant to high - priced goods. The short - term de - stocking of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,750 - 1,800 yuan [6] Group 2: Futures Market - The price of the main contract of Zhengzhou urea futures rose by 1.6% this week [9] - As of January 9th, the UR 5 - 9 spread was 23 [12] - As of January 9th, there were 12,850 Zhengzhou urea warehouse receipts, an increase of 469 from last week [19] Group 3: Spot Market - As of January 8th, the mainstream price in Shandong and Jiangsu was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [23] - As of January 8th, the FOB price of urea in China was 400 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton from last week [27] - As of January 8th, the urea basis was - 16 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton from last week [32] Group 4: Upstream - As of January 7th, the market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal with 5,500 kcal was 685 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [35] - As of January 8th, the closing price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.41 US dollars/million British thermal units, down 0.3 US dollars/million British thermal units from last week [35] Group 5: Industry - As of January 8th, China's urea production was 1371,600 tons, up 12,500 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 0.92%. The capacity utilization rate was 83.22%, up 2.93% from the previous period [38] - As of January 8th, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons, a decline of 18.60%. As of January 7th, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,022,200 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29% [41] - In November 2025, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decline of 49.95% [44] Group 6: Downstream - As of January 8th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.17%, a month - on - month increase of 3.28 percentage points. Next week, the enterprise start - up rate is expected to be stable with a slight increase [47] - As of January 8th, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 54.35%, an increase of 6.70 percentage points from last week [47]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Some previously shut - down urea production units have resumed operation, leading to an increase in domestic urea output. With 3 companies planning to halt production and 5 shut - down companies possibly resuming production this week, the probability of output increase is high [2]. - Agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season, trading atmosphere is tepid, and downstream buyers are resistant to high - priced goods, preferring a just - in - time procurement strategy. Industrial demand maintains a rigid procurement pattern [2]. - Due to the impact of some unit overhauls and the proper advancement of reserves and rigid demand, domestic urea enterprise inventories continued to decline last week. Considering some unit restarts, enterprise inventories may slightly increase this week [2]. - The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1740 - 1800 in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1778 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 33 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [2]. - The open interest of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 230,560 lots, up 11,964 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 30,527, up 1,171 [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea are 12,619, up 243 [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui have increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2]. - FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports remain unchanged at 355 and 400 US dollars/ton respectively [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, up 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 101.92 million tons, down 4.97 million tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises is 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points; the daily output is 194,200 tons, up 3,700 tons [2]. - Urea export volume is 60 million tons, down 60 million tons; the monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 33.89%, down 3.86 percentage points; the operating rate of melamine is 47.65%, down 10.42 percentage points [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 143 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine using externally - purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, down 72 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, down 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 31, China's total urea enterprise inventory was 101.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.97 million tons and a 4.65% decline. The decline rate has narrowed [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea port sample inventory was 17.2 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.5 million tons and a 2.82% decline. Port changes were minor, and the pace of factory shipments to ports slowed down near the holiday [2]. - As of December 31, China's urea output was 1.3591 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 257,000 tons and a 1.93% increase; the average daily output was 194,200 tons, up 37,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate was 80.29%, up 1.52 percentage points [2]. Suggestions for Attention - The operating rate of enterprises fluctuates little. Attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions [2]. - Pay attention to enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Urea Daily Report (January 5, 2026) [2] - Report Type: Energy and Chemical Research Report [2] - Research Area: Commodities (Urea) [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - The domestic urea market shows a complex situation. Although the daily output is high and the supply is relatively abundant, affected by factors such as Indian tenders, regional demand, and the progress of off - season storage, the price trend is expected to be strong in the short - term and the supply - demand fundamentals will remain relatively loose in the medium - term [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures rose strongly, closing at 1768 (+25/+1.43%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - factory prices of urea in various regions showed a stable - to - rising trend. For example, in Henan, it was reported at 1640 - 1660 yuan/ton; in Shandong, small - particle ex - factory price was 1660 - 1700 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On January 5, the daily production of the urea industry was 19.86 tons, an increase of 0.14 tons compared to the previous working day and an increase of 2.52 tons compared to the same period last year. The current operating rate was 82.70%, a 2.52% increase compared to 78.05% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Regional Market Conditions**: In Shandong, the ex - factory price was weak and stable, with a cooling market sentiment. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, and the ex - factory price followed the downward trend. In the delivery area and surrounding areas, the ex - factory price was strong, and the market atmosphere was positive [5]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The daily output of domestic urea has recovered to around 19.8 tons due to the return of some gas - fired maintenance devices. India has tendered again, but the impact on the domestic market is limited due to the lack of new quotas. The off - season storage progress has reached over 70%, and the future procurement intensity will gradually slow down [5]. - **Price Forecast**: In the short - term, the ex - factory price is expected to be strong in most regions. In the medium - term, the supply - demand fundamentals of urea will remain relatively loose, and the acceptance of price increases by downstream customers is low [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side Trading**: Bullish [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold off [6][9]. - **Options**: Hold off [9]. Related Charts - Multiple charts show historical data on urea production, operating rate, inventory, and related product data from 2022 to 2025, including daily production, coal - based and gas - based production, enterprise inventory, port inventory, etc. [10][14]

Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Monthly Report for January 2026: Expectation Support, Near - Weak and Far - Strong [1] - Author: Zhang Ying from the Energy and Chemical Industry Service Center of the Industrial Service Headquarters [1] - Date: January 5, 2026 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In 2026, the domestic urea market price is expected to show a trend of first rising slightly in January, then falling slightly in February, and strengthening in March. Supply will be abundant in the first quarter, while demand will first decline and then increase [38]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Spot and Futures Price Review - In December, urea prices were weak first and then strong. Futures prices drove the strengthening of the main basis, and then the futures prices recovered upward, causing the main basis to weaken. Supply - side开工负荷 decreased slightly, and overall spot supply decreased month - on - month. Demand from compound fertilizers and off - season storage procurement, as well as agricultural retail replenishment, led to good sales for manufacturers, inventory reduction, and an upward shift in the price negotiation center [5]. 3.2 Urea Capacity and Production Analysis - Capacity: In 2025, nearly 600 million tons of new urea production capacity was put into operation, including a 160 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Zhongneng Lvyuan in November. In the first quarter of 2026, a 50 - million - ton device of Xinjiang Aofu is planned to be put into operation [7][10]. -开工率: At the end of December, the urea开工率 was 81.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.8 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 8.77 percentage points. The natural - gas - based urea开工率 was 56.27%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.42 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 13.72 percentage points [7][10]. - Production: At the end of December, the daily urea production was 190,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,600 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14,900 tons. The estimated total urea production from January to December 2025 was 72.4 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7 billion tons, with an annual supply growth rate of 11.9% [12]. 3.3 Urea Cost and Profit Analysis - Cost: The anthracite market had general trading, and coal prices continued to be weak. As of December 29, the market price of washed small anthracite blocks (S0.4 - 0.5) in Jincheng, Shanxi was between 850 - 920 yuan/ton [15]. - Profit: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was - 2.28%, and that of gas - based urea was - 11.46%. Due to the weak coal prices at the cost end and the upward adjustment of urea prices, the urea production profit recovered slightly [15]. 3.4 Urea Demand Analysis - Apparent consumption: From January to November 2025, the apparent consumption of urea was about 61.53 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.54 billion tons, with a year - on - year increase of 4.31%. In December 2025, the urea production - sales ratio decreased slightly, from 99.4% at the beginning of the month to 98.4% recently [18]. - Agricultural demand: In 2025, the national summer grain sown area was 399 million mu, a decrease of 520,000 mu compared with the previous year, a decrease of 0.1%. Different regions had different trends in sown area. The agricultural use of urea has seasonal peaks, such as the spring wheat green - turning fertilizer period, the top - dressing period for corn and rice, and the wheat base - fertilizer period [21][22]. 3.5 Compound Fertilizer and Industrial Demand Analysis - Compound fertilizer: In December, the estimated operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer production capacity was 42.22%, a month - on - month increase of 4.63 percentage points, with a narrowing increase rate. In January, the operating rate may fluctuate slightly, following the production - based - on - sales model. The prices of urea and ammonium chloride increased, sulfur prices decreased, phosphate fertilizer prices were regulated, potassium fertilizer prices increased slightly, and compound fertilizer transaction prices increased. The cost advantage of the N element was obvious, the cost of the P element increased significantly, and the cost of the K element was stable in the short term [24][27]. - Industrial demand: The consumption of building materials and home furnishing stores first increased and then decreased, and the domestic demand for the panel market improved limitedly, with some support from exports. The average operating rate of Chinese melamine enterprises first increased and then decreased. It is expected to rise to over 60% in January [32]. 3.6 Urea and Fertilizer Export Analysis - From January to November 2025, the total fertilizer exports in China were 42.86 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea export volume was 4.62 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.36 billion tons. The export volume of ammonium sulfate was 19.37 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.2%. The export volume of other binary fertilizers containing nitrogen and phosphorus was 4.05 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 190.2%. The export volume of ammonium chloride for fertilizers was 2.08 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 46.4%. The urea port collection was 298,000 tons, and no export quota had been announced yet, so the port collection quantity was limited [35]. 3.7 Urea Inventory Level Analysis - Enterprise inventory: The urea enterprise inventory was at 883,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 495,000 tons. The overall agricultural reserve work advanced, and some industrial rigid demands made appropriate stockpiles, improving the market liquidity. - Registered warehouse receipts: The current registered urea warehouse receipts were 12,381, totaling 24.762 tons, at a historical high [36]. 3.8 Urea Market Outlook - Supply: Only one urea production device is planned to be put into operation in the first quarter. With the expected resumption of gas - based devices in Sichuan, Chongqing, and Inner Mongolia, the daily production is expected to remain at a high level, and the supply will be abundant [38]. - Demand: Agricultural demand will increase as the spring plowing approaches. Industrial demand: The compound fertilizer market may fluctuate at a high level in the next three months, with different trends in different months. The industrial demand for melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and desulfurization and denitrification will fluctuate slightly. Export demand is waiting for the announcement of new quotas. Overall, the downstream demand for urea will first decrease and then increase [38]. - Market price trend: In January 2026, the domestic urea market price may rise slightly; in February, it is expected to decline slightly; in March, it will be stronger [38]. - Key points of concern: Urea capacity release, urea device production reduction and maintenance, compound fertilizer operation, export policies, coal prices, and the macro - environment [38].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for urea is volatile, while the medium - term central price is expected to rise [2]. - The fundamentals of urea have improved temporarily, with the driving force being neutral to slightly strong, but the strength is limited. The subsequent upward movement of the driving force depends on the continuity of mid - stream replenishment [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Valuation End: Price and Spread - Multiple charts show the historical trends of urea basis (e.g., Zhengyuan, Boda, Jinkai, Dongping), monthly spreads (5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1), and warehouse receipts, as well as domestic and international spot prices [5][9][15][19] Domestic Supply Capacity - The expansion pattern of urea production capacity continued in 2025. In 2024, the total new production capacity was 392 million tons, and in 2025, it was 664 million tons. There are also plans for new capacity in 2026 [23] Production Enterprise Maintenance Plan - Many enterprises had maintenance plans from November 2025 to January 2026, including Yangmei Fengxi, Linggu Chemical, etc., with reasons including routine maintenance and loss - based (cost) maintenance [25] Output - The production profit is around the break - even point, and the daily output of urea remains at a high level [26] Cost - Raw material prices have stabilized, and the cash - flow cost line of factories has increased. Cost calculations are provided for Shanxi fixed - bed factories, including coal - related costs, ammonia, and urea [29] Profit - The profit corresponding to the cash - flow cost of urea is currently in a profitable state, with charts showing the cash - flow profit and production profit of different production methods [34][35] Net Import (Export) - During the reserve period, export policies tightened. Historical monthly export data from 2018 - 2025 (E) are provided, and there are also charts showing export profits and export quantities [39][40][41] Domestic Demand Agricultural Rigid Demand - Agricultural demand is seasonally strengthening, with different regions having different demand patterns according to crop types and growth stages. High - standard farmland construction has increased the demand for urea from corn [45][46][48] Industrial Rigid Demand - **Compound Fertilizer**: Charts show the capacity utilization rate, production cost, production profit, and factory inventory of compound fertilizers [52][53][54] - **Melamine**: Charts show the production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate of melamine [57][58] - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand for panels from the real estate sector has limited support, but panel exports are resilient, with relevant export and real - estate data presented [59][60] Inventory - On December 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1019,200 tons, a decrease of 49,700 tons from the previous week, a 4.65% month - on - month decrease. As of December 25, 2025 (week 52), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 177,000 tons, a 39,000 - ton increase from the previous week, a 28.26% month - on - month increase [65] International Urea International Urea Price - Charts show the historical trends of FOB prices of large - granular urea from China, the Baltic Sea, and the Middle East, as well as the CFR price of large - granular urea in Brazil [69][70][72]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high in the short - term, considering potential device recoveries and possible short - term enterprise malfunctions. The current agricultural season is in a period of low demand, but there may be a slight increase in local agricultural reserves in Jiangsu and Anhui. Commercial reserve demand may slow down due to price constraints. The short - term enterprise device operating rate may fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to weather and local environmental protection conditions. Recently, driven by market sentiment, urea factory orders have been progressing steadily, and factory shipments have improved. Domestic urea enterprise inventories have continued to decline. With the end of environmental protection warnings, urea production is expected to rebound, and inventories may increase. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1730 - 1760 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1743 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread is 38 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 204,038 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 9,235 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 28,939 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,868 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 12,381 sheets, with a week - on - week increase of 1,631 sheets [2]. Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the prices in Hebei, Shandong are 1730 yuan/ton and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with no change; the prices in Henan, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1700 yuan/ton, 1710 yuan/ton, and 1710 yuan/ton respectively, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 33 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton. The FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are 350 US dollars/ton and 390 US dollars/ton respectively, with no change [2]. Industry Situation - Port inventory is 17.7 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons; enterprise inventory is 106.89 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 78.77%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.92%; the daily urea output is 190,500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons. The urea export volume is 60 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 60 million tons; the monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, with an increase of 129,060 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.75%, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.62%; the melamine operating rate is 58.07%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.48%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 143 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally purchased urea is - 108 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 72 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 438.25 million tons, with an increase of 75.38 million tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of December 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 106.89 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11.08 million tons, or 9.39%. As of December 25, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 17.7 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.9 million tons, or 28.26%. As of December 25, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises was 1.3334 billion tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32.5 million tons, or 2.38%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.77%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92% [2]. Suggestion - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 24, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Views - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The overall supply of domestic urea still exceeds demand. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. The main risk is the change in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Fundamental Analysis Fundamental Factors - The supply side has stable daily production and operating rate, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased. The demand side, including agricultural and industrial demand, is mainly based on on - demand procurement. The operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export demand has declined in the short term, but the Indian tender news in the middle of the week boosted the market [4]. Base Difference - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -41, and the premium - discount ratio is -2.4%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (-40,000 tons), showing a bearish sign [4]. Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Main Position - The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position has increased, showing a bearish signal [4]. Group 5: Urea Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1,680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1,720 (-10), Henan spot is 1,680 (0), and FOB China is 2,744 [6]. Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1,721 (23), UR01 is 1,659 (10), and UR09 is 1,705 (23). The basis of the 05 contract is -41 (-33) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 10,532 (-349), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons, UR factory inventory is 1.18 million tons, and UR port inventory is 0.138 million tons [6]. Group 6: Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]