Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The daily production of the urea industry is expected to fluctuate around 21.5 - 220,000 tons. The upstream urea enterprise inventory continued to decline significantly. The demand side shows that the agricultural green - turning fertilizer demand is gradually ending, the compound fertilizer enterprise's operation rate has increased, mainly shipping previous orders, and the finished product inventory has decreased significantly. In the short term, due to low inventory pressure and downstream rigid demand replenishment, the price remains stable. The UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1,780 - 1,950 yuan/ton [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 2.1 This week's domestic urea market price - The domestic urea market price fluctuated narrowly this week [7]. 2.2 International urea price - The international urea price increased significantly [12]. 2.3 Urea production - The weekly production of urea was 1.4756 million tons (-2.88%), including 1.2282 million tons of coal - based urea production and 0.2474 million tons of gas - based urea production. The average daily production was 210,800 tons [21]. 2.4 Inventory - The urea enterprise inventory was 700,500 tons, a decrease of 108,400 tons compared with the previous period, showing a significant continuous decline. The port inventory was 169,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons compared with the previous period. The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 8.24 days, a slight decrease of 0.05 days compared with the previous period [30]. 2.5 Demand - The operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 51.24% (a month - on - month increase of 1.27%), the finished product inventory was 690,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 43,700 tons), and the operation rate continued to increase with obvious inventory reduction. The operation rate of melamine enterprises was 65.98% (a month - on - month increase of 6.67%), showing a month - on - month increase [33]. 2.6 Raw material end - The coal price was running strongly [35]. 2.8 Spread analysis - The 5 - 9 spread was weakly sorted, and the 05 basis changed little [43]. 2.10 Urea - related product spreads - Not elaborated in detail in the content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The weekly operating load of urea decreased slightly, and the off - season reserves were gradually put into the market, resulting in a sufficient supply. It is the traditional peak demand season for urea, and both industrial and agricultural demands still exist. With fertilizer procurement for agricultural preparation and use in various regions, and the high - level operation of compound fertilizer production, the demand for urea is supported. Therefore, the price is expected to remain stable [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price first declined and then rose, while the spot price remained largely stable with minor fluctuations. On March 27, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1877 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 1.96% increase. The highest price during the period was 1903 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1833 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1853 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous week, a 0.16% increase [2][3] - The main - contract basis of urea weakened. On March 27, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 36 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 46) - (- 25) yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread of urea also weakened. On March 27, the 5 - 9 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 64) - (- 51) yuan/ton [2][6] Fundamental Changes Supply - The urea operating load rate was 91.43%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 79.08%, an increase of 1.16 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average urea output was 21.08 tons [2][8] - Some devices in Heilongjiang, Shandong, and Henan were under maintenance or reduced production, while those in Hubei, Sichuan, and Ningxia were restored or increased production. Next week, some devices in Shandong and Heilongjiang will gradually resume or increase production, and there are no plans for device reduction or maintenance [8] Cost - The anthracite market price was adjusted strongly. As of March 26, the tax - included price of washed small anthracite blocks with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 910 - 950 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 25 yuan/ton from the previous week. The tax - included price of washed anthracite blocks with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 810 - 870 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 30 yuan/ton from the previous week [2][11] Profit - The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 4.93%, and that of gas - based urea was - 3.44% [11] Demand - The average advance sales of major urea producers was 6.2 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 100.7%. As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually released. In terms of industrial demand, the production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizers and the operating load rate of melamine have increased, and the overall production and sales are relatively stable [13][14] - Most winter wheat in North China, northern Huanghuai, the eastern part of Northwest China, and most of Xinjiang is in the green - turning to standing stage; in southern Huanghuai, Jianghuai, Jianghan, and Guanzhong, Shaanxi, it is in the jointing to booting stage; in most of Southwest China, it is in the booting to heading and flowering stage; and in parts of southern Sichuan and eastern Yunnan, it has entered the milk - ripening stage. The growth period of most winter wheat is close to the normal level, or 3 - 6 days earlier, and more than 7 days earlier in some areas [16] - The production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 51.24%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 69.01 tons, a decrease of 4.37 percentage points from the previous week. The high - level operation of compound fertilizer production supports the current urea price. The market continues to sell, mainly fulfilling advance sales. Dealers actively pick up goods, and the supply gradually reaches the grass - roots outlets. It is expected that the production - capacity operation rate of compound fertilizers may remain stable next week [16] - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 70.23%, an increase of 7.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output was 3,943 tons, and the melamine price continued to rise significantly. Some new short - stop maintenance occurred in Sichuan Chengdu Yulong and Henan Junhua, while Xinjiang Jinxiang Sairui Phase II, Shaanxi Longhua, and Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan Phase III gradually resumed production. It is expected that the operating load rate of the melamine industry will fluctuate narrowly between 60% and 70% next week [19] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened [20] Inventory - The urea inventory of enterprises was 57.5 tons, a decrease of 7.6 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 23 tons compared with the same period last year. The urea port inventory was 23.9 tons, the same as the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,707, totaling 174,140 tons, an increase of 3,046 receipts or 60,920 tons compared with the same period last year [2][23] Key Points to Watch - The operating situation of compound fertilizers, the reduction and maintenance of urea devices, export policies, and coal - price fluctuations [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 27, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant [4]. - Industrial demand has recovered, with significant rebounds in the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine. Agricultural demand is divided, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted [4]. - The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited by guidance [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 976,000 tons (-142,000 tons), which is neutral. The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal. The main position of UR is net short, with short positions being reduced, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today, with daily production at a high level year-on-year, recovering industrial demand, divided agricultural demand, and inventory depletion [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at high levels year-on-year. Although there will be some device overhauls in the short term, daily production will remain high, and the overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, with significant rebounds in the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine. Agricultural demand is divided, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (-0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The UR2605 contract basis is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.8%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 976,000 tons (-142,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Main Position - The main position of UR is net short, with short positions being reduced, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Expectation - It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today, with daily production at a high level year-on-year, recovering industrial demand, divided agricultural demand, and inventory depletion [4]. Group 5: Urea Market Conditions Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, with no change. The price of Shandong spot is 1890, with no change. The price of Henan spot is 1860, with no change. The FOB China price is 4917 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1875, with a change of 12. The basis is -15, with a change of -12. The price of UR01 is 1920, with a change of 18. The price of UR05 is 1875, with a change of 12. The price of UR09 is 1939, with a change of 18 [6]. Inventory - The number of warehouse receipts is 9024, with a change of 239. The UR comprehensive inventory is 976,000 tons, with no change. The UR manufacturer inventory is 809,000 tons, with no change. The UR port inventory is 167,000 tons, with no change [6]. Group 6: Urea Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Group 7: Urea Market Trends Price Trends - The report provides a chart of UR spot and futures prices and the basis, showing the price trends from January 1, 2023, to January 1, 2026 [7]. Inventory Trends - The report provides a chart of urea comprehensive inventory, showing the inventory trends from January 1 to December 30 [10]. Production Cash Flow Trends - The report provides a chart of urea production cash flow, showing the cash flow trends of fixed-bed, fluidized-bed, and natural gas production methods from January 1, 2023, to January 1, 2026 [12]. Export Profit Trends - The report provides a chart of urea export profit, showing the export profit and export proportion trends from January 1, 2023, to January 1, 2026 [14]. Group 8: Urea Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5]. - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a historical high [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Main Risk Points - Changes in export policies [5]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report - Report date: March 25, 2026 - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates, recovering industrial demand, differentiated agricultural demand, and de - stocking of comprehensive inventory. The urea主力合约 is expected to fluctuate today. The main influencing factors are international prices and domestic demand marginal changes, and the main risk point is the change in export policy [4][5] Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rates are at a high level compared to the same period. Although there are some device overhauls in the short term, the daily production will still remain high, with relatively abundant overall supply. Industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. Agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being de - stocked. The external market price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The increase in domestic prices is limited by guidance [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 4, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.2%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons (- 14.2), which is neutral [4] Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish trend [4] Main positions - The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, showing a bearish trend [4] Expectation - The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate strongly, with high daily production compared to the same period, recovering industrial demand, differentiated agricultural demand, and de - stocking of inventory. It is expected that UR will fluctuate today [4] Group 5: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), the price of Shandong spot is 1880 (+10), the price of Henan spot is 1860 (unchanged), and the FOB China price is 4913 [6] Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1864 (-20), the basis is - 4 (+20), the price of UR01 is 1902 (-8), the price of UR05 is 1864 (-20), and the price of UR09 is 1923 (-20) [6] Inventory - The number of warehouse receipts is 8712 (unchanged), the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 (unchanged), the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 (unchanged), and the UR port inventory is 16.7 (unchanged) [6]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 23, 2026 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, partial device maintenance in the short term but still high daily production, sufficient overall supply, recovery in industrial demand, differentiation in agricultural demand, inventory depletion, and the external price continuing to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is predicted to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year-on-year. There will be some device maintenance in the short term, but the daily production will remain high, with sufficient overall supply. The industrial demand has recovered, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine have significantly increased. The agricultural demand is differentiated, and the comprehensive inventory is being depleted. The external price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (with no change), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is 19, and the premium/discount ratio is 1.0%, indicating a bullish trend [4]. Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons (a decrease of 14.2 tons), indicating a bearish trend [4]. Disk - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is below the 20-day line, indicating a neutral position [4]. Main Position - The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. Expectation - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. The daily production is at a high level year-on-year, the industrial demand has recovered, the agricultural demand is differentiated, and the inventory is being depleted. It is predicted that the UR will fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Factors Affecting Urea Bullish Factors - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5]. - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. Bearish Factors - Daily production is at a historical high [5]. Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Main Risk Points - Changes in export policies [5] Group 6: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860, with no change; the price of Shandong spot is 1870, a decrease of 10; the price of Henan spot is 1860, with no change; the FOB China price is 4451 [6]. Futures Market - The price of the 05 contract is 1841, a decrease of 18; the price of UR01 is 1870, a decrease of 14; the price of UR05 is 1841, a decrease of 18; the price of UR09 is 1894, a decrease of 15 [6]. Inventory - The warehouse receipt quantity is 8499, with no change; the UR comprehensive inventory is 97.6 tons, a decrease of 17.1 tons; the UR manufacturer inventory is 80.9 tons, a decrease of 14.9 tons; the UR port inventory is 16.7 tons, a decrease of 2.2 tons [6]. Group 7: Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with corresponding changes in the import dependence and consumption growth rate [9].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Date: March 19, 2026 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, expected to remain at high levels. Industrial demand is recovering, but agricultural demand has entered a lull. The inventory has accumulated, and the external price is rising due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap [4]. - The UR2605 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, indicating neutrality [4]. - The UR comprehensive inventory is 114.7 million tons (-14.2), indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The 20-day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, indicating a bullish trend [4]. - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with high daily production year-on-year, differentiated industrial demand, and a peak in agricultural demand. The inventory is accumulating, and the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview 利多 - Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season [5] - Overseas prices continue to strengthen [5] 利空 - Daily production is at a historical high [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Main Risk Point - Changes in export policies [5] Group 5: Market Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | - Spot delivery price: 1860 (0)<br>- Shandong spot price: 1880 (-10)<br>- Henan spot price: 1860 (0)<br>- FOB China: 4433 | | Futures Market | - 05 contract price: 1855 (-23)<br>- UR01 price: 1866 (-22)<br>- UR05 price: 1855 (-23)<br>- UR09 price: 1894 (-25)<br>- Basis: 5 (23) | | Inventory | - Warehouse receipts: 8499 (444)<br>- UR comprehensive inventory: 114.7 million tons (0)<br>- UR factory inventory: 95.8 million tons (0)<br>- UR port inventory: 18.9 million tons (0) | [6] Group 6: Supply and Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependency | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Due to the unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, leading to a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market. It is expected that the urea price will oscillate within the range of 1820 - 1950 [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the urea main contract 2605 dropped by 33 yuan to 1878 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central - China mainstream area fell by 10 yuan to 1860 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 119 to 278,000, and short positions decreased by 2615 to 323,000 [1] 2. Important Information - **Supply**: The daily production of the urea industry is 221,200 tons, an increase of 34,000 tons compared to the previous working day and 298,000 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate is 93.95%, an 8.88% increase compared to 85.07% in the same period last year [1] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 957,600 tons, a decrease of 140,500 tons from the previous period, a 12.79% month - on - month decrease. The sample inventory at urea ports is 189,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 [1] - **Demand**: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37%, a 3.6% month - on - month increase, and the operating rate of melamine is 55.9%, an 8.2% month - on - month decrease [1] - **Tender**: India's RCF urea import tender, with the latest shipping date on March 31, received 20 suppliers with a total bid volume of over 3.07 million tons. The lowest offer on the east coast is CFR512 dollars/ton, and on the west coast is CFR508 dollars/ton. India intends to purchase 1.5 million tons in this tender [1] - **Import and Export in December 2025**: Urea imports were 35.39 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82.11%; the average import price was 2963.69 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 52.11%. Urea exports were 278,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53.75%; the average export price was 398.27 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 56.64% [1] - **Oil Price**: The tense atmosphere in the Middle East persists, and supply risks continue, causing international oil prices to rise. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose 2.71 dollars/barrel to 96.21 dollars/barrel, a 2.90% month - on - month increase; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.21 dollars/barrel to 103.42 dollars/barrel, a 3.20% month - on - month increase. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract dropped 25.9 to 744.5 yuan/barrel and rose 20.4 to 764.9 yuan/barrel in the night session [1] 3. Market Logic - The unclear geopolitical situation in the Middle East leads to sharp fluctuations in international crude oil. Some urea production facilities in the Middle East are temporarily shut down, causing a significant increase in overseas urea prices. The middle and lower reaches are cautious about accepting high - priced goods, while the upstream factories currently face little pressure. Exports are urgently halted, and reserve supplies are expected to be released into the market [1] 4. Trading Strategy - Temporarily wait and see [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bullish, with high daily production and operating rates year-on-year, expected to remain high, and overall supply is relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The international price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the price difference between domestic and foreign exports. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. It is expected that the main urea contract will fluctuate strongly today [4]. - Bullish factors include the gradual transition of agricultural demand to the peak season and the continuous strengthening of overseas prices. Bearish factors include the historical high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year-on-year, and daily production is expected to remain high, with overall supply being relatively abundant. Industrial demand has recovered, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The international price has continued to strengthen due to geopolitical factors, widening the price difference between domestic and foreign exports. The domestic price increase is limited by guidance. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1870 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are bullish [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is -30, with a premium/discount ratio of -1.6%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.147 million tons (-14,200 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20-day moving average of the main UR contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20-day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. Daily production is at a high level year-on-year, industrial demand is differentiated, agricultural demand has reached the peak of its phased cycle, and inventories are increasing. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate strongly today [4]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1870 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1900 | 11 | Warehouse Receipt | 8055 | 0 | | Shandong Spot | 1900 | 0 | Basis | -30 | -11 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 114.7 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1870 | 0 | UR01 | 1902 | 25 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 95.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 4448 | | UR05 | 1900 | 11 | UR Port Inventory | 18.9 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1939 | 27 | | | | [6] Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and operating rates year - on - year. After the holiday, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is generally weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily reached the end of its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is predicted that the urea market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are at a high level year - on - year. After the holiday, daily production is expected to remain high with the restart of some natural gas plants. The overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak but has an upward expectation, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers rising and that of melamine falling. Agricultural demand has temporarily ended its phased cycle, and comprehensive inventories have increased. The external price has continued to rise due to geopolitical factors, and the price difference between domestic and foreign exports has widened. The current spot price of the delivery product is 1860 (+0), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 12, and the premium/discount ratio is - 0.6%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 tons (-6.2), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract has decreased, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of phased agricultural demand, and inventory accumulation, it is expected that the UR market will move in a volatile manner today [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Positive Factors**: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices continue to strengthen [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. - **Main Risk Point**: Changes in export policies [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1860 | 0 | 05 Contract | 1875 | 3 | Warehouse Receipt | 6380 | 947 | | Shandong Spot | 1890 | 0 | Basis | - 15 | - 3 | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 128.8 | 0 | | Henan Spot | 1860 | 0 | UR01 | 1857 | 2 | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 109.8 | 0 | | FOB China | 3881 | | UR05 | 1875 | 3 | UR Port Inventory | 19.0 | 0 | | | | | UR09 | 1890 | 5 | | | | [6] Urea Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Import Volume | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 12, 2026 [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with high daily production and supply pressure, weak industrial demand with recovery expectations, and the end of the agricultural seasonal demand phase, resulting in inventory accumulation. The UR contract is expected to fluctuate widely today [4]. - The main factors affecting urea prices are international prices and domestic demand changes, with potential risks from export policy changes [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Summary Fundamentals - Current daily production and operating rates are at high levels year-on-year. After the holiday, with the restart of some natural gas plants, daily production is expected to remain high, and the overall supply pressure is at a historical high for the same period. Industrial demand is weak overall but has recovery expectations. Compound fertilizer operating rates are rising, while melamine operating rates are falling. Agricultural seasonal demand has temporarily ended, and comprehensive inventory has increased. External market prices continue to rise due to geopolitical factors, widening the export price gap. The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association has called for market stability and emphasized that long-term urea prices should remain stable [4]. Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is -12, with a premium - discount ratio of -0.6%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Inventory - UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (-6.2), indicating a bearish signal [4]. Futures Market - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Main Positions - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Expectations - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate widely. With high daily production year - on - year, differentiated industrial demand, the peak of agricultural seasonal demand, and inventory accumulation, the UR price is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Factors Affecting Prices - Bullish factors: Agricultural demand is gradually entering the peak season, and overseas prices are continuously strengthening [5]. - Bearish factors: Daily production is at a historical high [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the spot delivery product is 1860 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1890 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1860 (unchanged), and FOB China is 3886 [6]. Futures Market - The 05 contract price is 1872 (+16), the basis is -12 (-16), UR01 is 1855 (+6), UR05 is 1872 (+16), and UR09 is 1885 (+1) [6]. Inventory - Warehouse receipts are 5433 (+9), UR comprehensive inventory is 128.8 million tons (unchanged), UR factory inventory is 109.8 million tons (unchanged), and UR port inventory is 19.0 million tons (unchanged) [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence rate decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 8.4% in 2023, then increased slightly to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with a high of 17.9% in 2020 and a low of 0.3% in 2022 [9].