交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-3-4 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开 工回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素 等影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素 指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前 交割品现货1860（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差41，升贴水比例2.2%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135万吨（+15.4），偏 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-3-3 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开 工回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素 等影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素 指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前 交割品现货1860（+30），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差43，升贴水比例2.3%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135万吨（+15.4）， ...

大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-3-2 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，有回升预期。复合肥开 工回升、三聚氰胺开工下降。农业需求逐步转入旺季，综合库存有所累库。外盘价格受地缘因素 等影响继续上升，出口内外价差拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素 指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前 交割品现货1830（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-17，升贴水比例-0.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存135万吨（+15.4） ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-27 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 2900 2023/1/1 2023/4/1 2023/7/1 2023/10/1 2024/1/1 2024/4/1 2024/7/1 2024/10/1 2025/1/1 2025/4/1 2025/7/1 2025/10/1 2026/1/1 坐标轴标题 U R期现价格及基差 基差 主力收盘 现货 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2026-2-26 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺当前 开工均在偏低位置。农需储备需求良好，随着节后春耕需求启动预计仍有上升空间。综合库存继 续回落，去库形态明显。外盘价格维持高位，出口内外价差继续拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业 协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中 长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前交割品现货1830（+0），基本面整体偏多； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-8，升贴水比例-0.4%，中性； • 3. 库存：UR综合 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、库存去库 • 2、储备需求良好 • 利空 • 1、日产历史高位 尿素早报 2026-2-24 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率同比处高位，节后随着部分天然气装置重启，预期日产将维持 在高位，整体供应压力仍处历史同期高点。需求端，工业需求整体偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺当前 开工均在偏低位置。农需储备需求良好，随着节后春耕需求启动预计仍有上升空间。综合库存继 续回落，去库形态明显。外盘价格维持高位，出口内外价差继续拉大。2月12日，中国氮肥工业 协会发布了《关于市场炒作尿素指导价的说明》，呼吁市场参与者"不传谣、不信谣"，强调中 长期尿素价格应以稳为主。当前交割品现货1810（+10），基本面整体偏多； ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are at a high level compared to the same period. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is still acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In the industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, while the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is a bullish factor. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. With the return of maintenance, the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The comprehensive inventory is falling, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the order demand is acceptable, with good agricultural reserve demand. In industrial demand, the demand for compound fertilizers is stable, and the operating rate of melamine is falling. There is a large price difference between domestic and international exports. Recently, the downstream demand is acceptable, but the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1800 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The UR2605 contract basis is - 43, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.4%, which is bearish [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.084 million tons (- 0.005 million tons), which is bullish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is increasing, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. The operating rate is at a high level year - on - year. Although it is approaching the Spring Festival, the downstream reserve demand is acceptable, and the inventory is being de - stocked [4]. Factors Affecting Urea - **Likely to Rise**: Inventory de - stocking and good reserve demand [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: Domestic oversupply [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet of Urea | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 22.455 billion | | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 0.2366 billion | 24.0519 billion | | | 2019 | | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 0.3786 billion | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 0.3783 billion | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 0.3572 billion | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 0.4462 billion | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 0.4465 billion | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 0.514 billion | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, urea prices are expected to fluctuate with support before the Spring Festival. The support mainly comes from the improvement in spot trading driven by pre - Spring Festival order collection and the strong expectation of agricultural spring plowing demand after the Spring Festival. For the 05 contract, the fundamental pressure level is around 1,830 yuan/ton, and the fundamental support level is expected to be around 1,750 - 1,760 yuan/ton [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract was 1,797 yuan/ton (up 12 yuan from the previous day), the settlement price was 1,793 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan), the trading volume was 115,177 lots (up 13,273 lots), the open interest of the 05 contract was 224,093 lots (up 5,288 lots), the number of warehouse receipts was 10,949 tons (down 87 tons), the trading volume was 413,090 ten - thousand yuan (up 48,025 ten - thousand yuan). The Shandong regional basis was 3 (down 12), the Fengxi - disk basis was - 127 (down 12), the Dongguang - disk basis was - 7 (down 12), and the UR05 - UR09 spread was 41 (down 1) [1] - **Spot Market**: The factory prices of Henan Xinlianxin, Yankuang Xinjiang, Shandong Ruixing, Hebei Dongguang, and Jiangsu Linggu remained unchanged at 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,320 yuan/ton, 1,780 yuan/ton, 1,790 yuan/ton, and 1,830 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Shanxi Fengxi increased by 10 yuan/ton to 1,680 yuan/ton. The trader prices in Shandong and Shanxi regions remained unchanged at 1,800 yuan/ton and 1,680 yuan/ton respectively. The supply - side indicators showed that the operating rate was 89.66% (up 1.78 percentage points), and the daily output was 211,110 tons (up 4,200 tons) [1] 3.2 Industry News - On February 4, 2026, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 918,500 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 2.79%. During this period, the inventory of domestic urea enterprises decreased slightly. Near the Spring Festival, urea factories mainly focused on receiving orders and clearing inventory. The market continued to fluctuate narrowly recently, and some urea factories still mainly reduced inventory due to agricultural pick - up in some areas. Provinces where enterprise inventory decreased included Anhui, Hainan, Henan, Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, and Sichuan. Provinces where enterprise inventory increased included Gansu, Hebei, Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic urea spot market price fluctuated narrowly this week. The daily production of the urea industry has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. On the demand side, agricultural demand in some regions has followed up, and the current compound fertilizer production maintains a certain support for urea demand. However, there is an expectation that the downstream enterprises' production may decline during the approaching holiday. In the short term, the pre - sales of urea enterprises before the festival are gradually advancing, and the pending orders still provide support. The futures price may continue to trade in a high - level consolidation, and the UR2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 1750 - 1830 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - long Viewpoint Summary - **Supply**: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period. The weekly urea production is 146.92 tons (+0.98%), including 124.28 tons of coal - based urea production and 22.64 tons of gas - based urea production, with an average daily production of 20.98 tons [4][22]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production rate is 41.79% (up 0.45% week - on - week), and the finished product inventory is 74.93 tons (down 0.63 tons week - on - week). The melamine production rate is 57.95% (down 0.85% week - on - week) [4][33]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline. The inventory of urea enterprises is 91.85 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.63 tons. The port inventory is 16.5 tons (a week - on - week increase of 2.1 tons), and the mainstream pre - sales days of urea enterprises are 8.82 days (a week - on - week increase of 2.23 days) [4][30]. - **Cost and Profit**: The coal price is stable, and the urea profit has increased week - on - week [4]. - **Basis and Spread**: The 5 - 9 spread is strong, and the 05 basis has strengthened [4]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - **Domestic Market Price**: The domestic urea market price fluctuated narrowly this week [6]. - **International Market Price**: The international urea market price has increased [12]. - **Supply**: The daily production has rebounded to the high - level of the same period [18]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream urea enterprises continues to decline, while the port inventory has increased slightly, and the pending orders of enterprises have increased [26]. - **Demand**: Attention should be paid to the changes in the compound fertilizer production rate. The compound fertilizer production has increased slightly, while the melamine production has decreased [32]. - **Raw Material End**: The coal price is stable [35]. - **Urea - related Product Spread**: No specific content provided [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices are in a range - bound fluctuation. Urea's检修装置 has复产 plans, leading to an increase in daily output and supply. Agricultural demand is gradually limited, and industrial demand shows a mixed trend with a narrow fluctuation in compound fertilizer production capacity utilization rate and a decrease in melamine operating rate. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market are gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises have a decent backlog of orders. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Changes - Urea's futures price fluctuated weakly, while the spot price moved slightly upward. On February 6, the closing price of the Urea 2605 contract was 1776 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton or 0.78% from the previous week, with a maximum of 1798 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1766 yuan/ton. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1744 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous week. [2][5] - The main - contract basis of urea strengthened. On February 6, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 32 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (-46) - (-27) yuan/ton. [2][8] - The 5 - 9 spread of urea strengthened. On February 6, the 5 - 9 spread was 38 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of 32 - 38 yuan/ton. [2][9] 3.2 Fundamental Changes 3.2.1 Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 87.98%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 64.6%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points from the previous week. The daily average output of urea was 20.99 tons. Some overhauled devices in Sichuan, Shaanxi, and Shandong resumed production or increased production, and the daily output reached around 210,000 tons, with sufficient supply of goods. [2][12] 3.2.2 Cost and Profit - The price of anthracite coal in the market was slightly stronger on a stable basis. As of February 5, the tax - inclusive price of washed anthracite small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 880 - 930 yuan/ton, with the same closing price center as the previous week. The gross profit margin of coal - based urea was 0.33%, and that of gas - based urea was - 9.66%. The mainstream price of the urea spot market moved upward, and the urea production profit remained stable. [2][16] 3.2.3 Demand - The average advance receipt of major urea producers was 6.5 days, and the weekly production - sales ratio of urea enterprises was 99.6%. Agricultural demand was gradually limited. In terms of industrial demand, the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers fluctuated slightly, and the operating rate of melamine decreased. Due to logistics and holidays, new orders in the market were gradually slowing down, but urea enterprises had a decent backlog of orders. [2][17][18] 3.2.4 Industrial Demand - The production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 41.79%, an increase of 0.45 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 749,300 tons, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points from the previous week. Winter storage shipments continued to slow down, some fertilizer enterprises reduced production, and the growth rate of spot inventory slowed down. As the Spring Festival approaches next week, some fertilizer enterprises will stop production for holidays as planned, and it is expected that the production capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers may continue to decline. [2][22] - The operating rate of melamine enterprises was 59.83%, a decrease of 3.65 percentage points from the previous week, with a weekly output of 32,080 tons. This week, new devices in Hebei Xinji Jiuyuan, Shandong Hualu Hengsheng Phase II, Shandong Heli Tai, and Xinjiang Yuxiang Huyang were shut down for maintenance. The D - area of Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui and Anhui Jinhe had resumed production after short - term shutdowns. [25] - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores decreased, and the demand support in the panel market weakened. [26] 3.2.5 Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 720,000 tons, a decrease of 18,000 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 55,000 tons compared with the same period last year. Urea port inventory was 241,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous week. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 10,860, equivalent to 217,200 tons, an increase of 1,599 receipts or 31,980 tons compared with the same period last year. [2][29] 3.3 Key Points to Watch - The operating conditions of compound fertilizers, the reduction and overhaul of urea devices, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2]