广义财政收入
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2025年1-2月财政数据快评:开年财政收入承压
Guoxin Securities· 2025-03-25 01:16
Revenue Performance - National general public budget revenue for January-February 2025 was 43,856 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase last year[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[2] - The completion rate of revenue for January-February 2025 was 19.9%, consistent with last year but lagging behind 2021-2023[5] Expenditure Analysis - General public budget expenditure for January-February 2025 was 45,096 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, a decline from 9.5% in December 2024[3][15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline of 5.6% year-on-year, while social welfare expenditure grew by 5.4%[3][14] - Debt interest payments increased by 19.7% year-on-year, indicating rising financial obligations[3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, slightly improving from a 12.2% decline last year[4][18] - Land transfer income fell by 15.7%, reflecting a continued downward trend[4][18] - Government fund expenditure grew by only 1.2%, significantly down from 12.6% in December 2024[4][18] Fiscal Policy Insights - The fiscal policy intensity index continues to rise, with broad expenditure growth at 2.9% and broad revenue growth at -2.9%[4][22] - The fiscal policy intensity index showed fluctuations in 2024, with a rebound after the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies in September[4][22]