证券研究报告 | 2025年11月18日 2025 年 10 月财政数据快评 财政支出离完成预算有多远？ 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 田地 | 0755-81982035 | tiandi2@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980524090003 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 1-10 月，全国一般公共预算收入 186490 亿元，同比增长 0.8%。其中，全国税收收入 153364 亿元，同比 增长 1.7%；非税收入 33126 亿元，同比下降 3.1%。 后续可能需要加快财政资金落地速度。10 月财政存款环比上行 7200 亿，存款余额来到 7.7 万亿，这一数 字高出过去三年同期均值 8414 亿；1-10 月广义财政累计缺口约 8.7 万亿，而广义赤字到十月底已落地 10.3 万亿，已发未用 1.7 万亿，即使剔除特殊新增专项债，财政资金仍有部分尚未落地。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 1 1-10 月，全国一般公共预 ...

Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for January-February 2025 was 43,856 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase last year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[3] - Major tax categories showed a decline, with corporate income tax down 10.4% and value-added tax growth slowing to 1.1%[4][11] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure for January-February 2025 was 45,096 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, but down from 9.5% in December 2024[4][15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%[20] - Social welfare expenditure grew by 5.4%, with education spending increasing by 7.7%[20] Government Fund Budget - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, slightly improving from a 12.2% decline last year[5][25] - Land transfer income fell by 15.7%, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous December's 0.7% increase[5][25] Fiscal Policy Implications - The fiscal policy intensity index continues to rise, with broad expenditure growth at 2.9% and broad revenue growth at -2.9%[29] - The fiscal policy intensity index showed fluctuations in 2024, with a rebound after the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies in September[29]

Revenue Performance - National general public budget revenue for January-February 2025 was 43,856 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase last year[2] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[2] - The completion rate of revenue for January-February 2025 was 19.9%, consistent with last year but lagging behind 2021-2023[5] Expenditure Analysis - General public budget expenditure for January-February 2025 was 45,096 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, a decline from 9.5% in December 2024[3][15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline of 5.6% year-on-year, while social welfare expenditure grew by 5.4%[3][14] - Debt interest payments increased by 19.7% year-on-year, indicating rising financial obligations[3] Government Fund Budget - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, slightly improving from a 12.2% decline last year[4][18] - Land transfer income fell by 15.7%, reflecting a continued downward trend[4][18] - Government fund expenditure grew by only 1.2%, significantly down from 12.6% in December 2024[4][18] Fiscal Policy Insights - The fiscal policy intensity index continues to rise, with broad expenditure growth at 2.9% and broad revenue growth at -2.9%[4][22] - The fiscal policy intensity index showed fluctuations in 2024, with a rebound after the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies in September[4][22]