Revenue Analysis - National general public budget revenue for January-February 2025 was 43,856 billion yuan, down 1.6% year-on-year, compared to a 1.3% increase last year[3] - Tax revenue decreased by 3.9% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 11%[3] - Major tax categories showed a decline, with corporate income tax down 10.4% and value-added tax growth slowing to 1.1%[4][11] Expenditure Insights - General public budget expenditure for January-February 2025 was 45,096 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, but down from 9.5% in December 2024[4][15] - Infrastructure-related expenditure saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 5.6%[20] - Social welfare expenditure grew by 5.4%, with education spending increasing by 7.7%[20] Government Fund Budget - Government fund revenue decreased by 10.7% year-on-year, slightly improving from a 12.2% decline last year[5][25] - Land transfer income fell by 15.7%, reflecting a significant drop compared to the previous December's 0.7% increase[5][25] Fiscal Policy Implications - The fiscal policy intensity index continues to rise, with broad expenditure growth at 2.9% and broad revenue growth at -2.9%[29] - The fiscal policy intensity index showed fluctuations in 2024, with a rebound after the introduction of growth-stabilizing policies in September[29]

证券研究报告 | 2025年03月25日 2025 年 1-2 月财政数据快评 开年财政收入承压 经济研究·宏观快评 | 证券分析师： | 董德志 | 021-60933158 | dongdz@guosen.com.cn | 执证编码：S0980513100001 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 联系人： | 王奕群 | | wangyiqun1@guosen.com.cn | | 事项： 财政部发布 2025 年 1-2 月财政收支情况，全国一般公共预算收入 43856 亿元，同比-1.6%。其中税收收入 36349 亿元，同比-3.9%；非税收入 7507 亿元，同比 11%。一般公共预算支出 45096 亿元，同比 3.4%。中 央本级支出 5242 亿元，同比 8.6%；地方支出 39854 亿元，同比 2.7%。 评论： 与去年类似，开年财政收入承压，非税收入增速较 12 月大幅下滑。1-2 月收入同比-1.6%，去年实现 1.3%。 其中税收收入-3.9%，去年-3.4%。税收收入增速低于去年 12 月当月的 2.7%,显著回落；与非税收入 2024 年 ...