Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in cotton prices is primarily influenced by substantial progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., although macroeconomic uncertainties and favorable weather conditions for the new crop year may limit the extent of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Factors - The high-level economic talks on May 10-11 resulted in significant tariff reductions, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in cotton prices [1] - G7 finance ministers discussed imposing tariffs on small packages from China, with China's apparel exports to G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) accounting for 19.2% of total exports, which could significantly impact cotton demand [1][2] Group 2: Market Demand - Downstream enterprises reported a surge in shipments to the U.S. following the tariff reductions, but the overall demand remains weak due to several factors, including previous stockpiling and the cancellation of the small package tax exemption [2] - The 24% tariff suspension is temporary (90 days), creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics, which makes enterprises cautious about new orders [2] Group 3: Production Outlook - New cotton planting is nearly complete, with initial weather conditions being favorable, leading to optimistic expectations for increased production in Xinjiang [2] - The cotton production in Xinjiang is projected to reach a ten-year high, which may exert strong upward pressure on prices and limit the current rebound [2][3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International cotton market: ICE cotton prices are under pressure to rebound. The market is still worried about demand, paying attention to the impact of the USDA May supply - demand report. Although the cotton planting progress in the US is accelerating and the drought has eased to some extent, the planting area has decreased, and future weather impacts on cotton production need to be monitored [7]. - Domestic cotton market: Domestic cotton spot prices are mainly falling. The de - stocking of downstream yarn has slowed down, and textile enterprises have insufficient motivation to purchase cotton. External demand and export demand suppress cotton prices. Technically, Zhengzhou cotton is in a weak and volatile state [7]. - Basis: The basis is expected to weaken [7]. - Spread between near and far months: The spread between near and far months is oscillating and weakening [7]. - Unilateral: It shows a low - level oscillating trend, and there is still downward pressure in the medium - term [7]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Overview - Price changes: The futures closing price of NYBOT No. 2 cotton decreased by 2.40% to 66.72; the International Cotton Index M increased by 0.27% to 75.1; the China Cotton Price Index CCIndex 3128B increased by 6.63% to 13,595; some other related price indices showed different degrees of increase or decrease. The overall trend of the international cotton market is still in a low - level oscillation, fluctuating around trade tariff events, and the market is waiting for the USDA May supply - demand report [4]. - Supply - demand factors: Globally, cotton production is expected to decline by 0.06% to 26.354 million tons, inventory is expected to increase by 0.68% to 17.1915 million tons, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio is expected to increase by 1.12% to 67.97%. In the US, weekly net cotton export sales decreased by 39.31% to 1.43 million tons. In China, production is expected to be stable, commercial inventory decreased by 14.20% to 4.1526 million tons, imports decreased by 41.67% to 7 million tons, downstream开工 decreased by 2.80% to 68%, and textile export value increased by 222.8687% to 2.418622 million US dollars [6]. Spot Market Price and Spread - Price trends: Presented the price trends of international cotton index, Chinese yarn price index, and Chinese cotton price index over a certain period [11][12][13]. - Basis: The cotton basis decreased by 18.21% to 1,172, and the yarn basis decreased by 33.33% to 1,080. Both are expected to weaken [4]. - Internal - external spread: Showed the import cotton price, internal - external cotton price spread, import yarn price, and internal - external yarn price spread [17]. International Cotton Market Supply - Demand Data - Presented the global cotton production, consumption, inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio over the years, as well as the US cotton export signing volume, shipment rate, and cumulative export volume [20][21]. Domestic Cotton Market Supply - Demand and Industrial Data - Production and demand: Showed the production and demand of Chinese cotton over the years, as well as the end - of - period inventory [23][24]. - Commercial inventory: Domestic cotton commercial inventory is in a de - stocking state, and presented the weekly and monthly values of commercial inventory [27][28]. - Import situation: Showed the annual and monthly import volumes of Chinese cotton [30]. - Spinning mill inventory and enterprise operation: Presented the inventory days of cotton and yarn in spinning mills, the starting rate of domestic textile enterprises, cotton textile profit, and the spread between Zhengzhou cotton yarn and Zhengzhou cotton [31][33][34]. - Yarn and textile imports and exports: Showed the monthly import volume of yarn and the monthly export value of textile yarns and clothing [37][38]. Exchange Rate Trends - Presented the trends of the US dollar index and the US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate [41][42].