Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, but Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur. The specific consensus on China-US economic and trade is beneficial for China to increase exports to the US and stabilize growth in the fourth quarter and next year. The easing of China-US economic and trade disputes is also conducive to stabilizing the global trade environment and the global industrial chain and supply chain. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were flat, and they fluctuated slightly upwards throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures TL2512 rose 0.19%, the 10-year T2512 rose 0.05%, the 5-year TF2512 was flat, and the 2-year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] - The Wande All A stock index closed with a small negative line on Thursday, with a total trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous trading day's 2.29 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter-bank money market declined compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.31% (1.40% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50% (1.55% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter-bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year treasury bonds rose 3.45 basis points to 0.04%, the 5-year declined 1.74 basis points to 1.56%, the 10-year declined 1.10 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year declined 1.45 basis points to 2.16% [1] - On October 30, the Bank of Japan announced to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with expectations [1] - As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments had been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [1] - On October 30, the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [2] 3.3 China-US Economic and Trade Consensus - The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study and refine specific plans [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends relevant measures, China will also suspend its countermeasures against the US for one year [2] - The two sides also reached consensus on fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US [2] 3.4 Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00%, in line with market expectations. However, Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur [2] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market rebounded on October 24, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.35% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increasing by 0.48% [1] - The rally was driven by the overnight rise in the three major U.S. stock indices and a reduction in investor concerns regarding the global trade environment [1] - Semiconductor-related stocks, including SoftBank Group, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron, saw significant rebounds, influenced by the rise in U.S. tech stocks like Intel [1] - The Nikkei index experienced a high of nearly 800 points during the day, closing at 49,299.65 points, up by 658.04 points [1] - The Tokyo foreign exchange market saw the yen weaken against the dollar, providing support for export-related stocks [1] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, non-ferrous metals, mining, and electrical products showed the highest gains, while real estate, other products, and other financial sectors lagged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haigou Co., Ltd. (301063.SZ), indicated that its direct export revenue to the United States is relatively small and has not significantly impacted its operations [1] Group 1 - The company will continue to monitor changes in the global trade environment to ensure stable business development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haigou Co., Ltd. (301063.SZ), indicated that its product revenue directly exported to the United States is relatively small and has not significantly impacted its operations [1] Group 1 - The company will continue to monitor changes in the global trade environment to ensure stable business development [1]

Core Insights - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for China in August rose to 50.5 from 49.5, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase in new orders, which reached the fastest growth in five months, was the main driver for the PMI rebound, supported by domestic promotional activities and improved basic demand [1] - Although new export orders remain slightly below the neutral line, the pace of decline has significantly slowed compared to July, suggesting initial stabilization in the global trade environment [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The improvement in order conditions has led to a recovery in manufacturing production, ending a contraction phase from July [1] - Companies are showing increased willingness to procure, with both raw material and finished goods inventories accumulating, and the growth rate of unfinished orders reaching a six-month high [1] - Despite the increase in orders leading to higher capacity pressure, companies remain cautious in hiring, marking the fifth consecutive month of layoffs in the manufacturing sector [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the return of the PMI to the expansion zone reflects the initial effects of recent domestic demand-boosting policies, with both internal and external demand contributing to short-term economic recovery [1] - However, challenges such as operational pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and a weak job market need to be monitored, as the sustainability of economic recovery will depend on policy support for micro-entities and changes in the global trade environment [1][2]

Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is experiencing a dichotomy, with the Australian dollar unexpectedly rising amid expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the Japanese yen continues to weaken under the shadow of US-Japan trade tensions [1][3] - The Australian dollar's strength is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's "dovish yet hawkish" stance, maintaining the cash rate at 3.85% and indicating that inflation risks are balanced, which led to a more than 1% increase against the US dollar [3] - In contrast, the Japanese yen is under pressure due to the announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea by President Trump, which has negatively impacted market expectations for Japanese exports and diminished the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal [3][4] Group 2 - The euro has reached a one-year high against the yen, reflecting global investors' preference for currencies from regions with clear economic policies and growth momentum, shifting away from traditional safe havens like the yen [4] - Trump's fluctuating policy stance complicates market expectations, with potential for renewed yen safe-haven attributes if trade tensions escalate or if the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is more dovish than anticipated [4] - The rebound of the Australian dollar and the decline of the yen are seen as structural changes in the currency market, influenced by complex policy signals and global macroeconomic expectations, indicating a prevailing trend of "stronger currencies remaining strong, while weaker currencies struggle" [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

Core Viewpoint - The major memory manufacturers, including Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix, are phasing out DDR4 memory production to focus on next-generation products like DDR5, LPDDR5, and HBM, despite current strong demand for DDR4 [1][4][6]. Group 1: Industry Trends - DDR4 memory has been a dominant player in the market since its introduction in 2014, but the rise of DDR5 memory, which offers faster speeds and better energy efficiency, is shifting the focus of manufacturers [4][5]. - The transition to DDR5 is driven by the increasing performance demands in consumer electronics, particularly in high-end PCs and data centers, where DDR5 is becoming the preferred choice [7][8]. - The global trade environment, including tariffs and trade barriers, is influencing memory manufacturers to reassess their product strategies, leading to a shift from DDR4 to higher-margin products [8][9]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape has changed with the emergence of Chinese memory manufacturers like ChangXin Storage, which have increased production capacity and reduced costs, putting pressure on traditional memory makers [9]. - The profitability of DDR4 has been declining due to intense market competition, prompting manufacturers to pivot towards more profitable products like DDR5 and HBM, which are in high demand in emerging sectors such as artificial intelligence [9]. - The decision to discontinue DDR4 production is a strategic move to enhance profitability and adapt to evolving market conditions, reflecting a broader trend of technological advancement and market restructuring [6][9].

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in cotton prices is primarily influenced by substantial progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., although macroeconomic uncertainties and favorable weather conditions for the new crop year may limit the extent of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Factors - The high-level economic talks on May 10-11 resulted in significant tariff reductions, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in cotton prices [1] - G7 finance ministers discussed imposing tariffs on small packages from China, with China's apparel exports to G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) accounting for 19.2% of total exports, which could significantly impact cotton demand [1][2] Group 2: Market Demand - Downstream enterprises reported a surge in shipments to the U.S. following the tariff reductions, but the overall demand remains weak due to several factors, including previous stockpiling and the cancellation of the small package tax exemption [2] - The 24% tariff suspension is temporary (90 days), creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics, which makes enterprises cautious about new orders [2] Group 3: Production Outlook - New cotton planting is nearly complete, with initial weather conditions being favorable, leading to optimistic expectations for increased production in Xinjiang [2] - The cotton production in Xinjiang is projected to reach a ten-year high, which may exert strong upward pressure on prices and limit the current rebound [2][3]