Group 1 - The foreign exchange market is experiencing a dichotomy, with the Australian dollar unexpectedly rising amid expectations of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, while the Japanese yen continues to weaken under the shadow of US-Japan trade tensions [1][3] - The Australian dollar's strength is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's "dovish yet hawkish" stance, maintaining the cash rate at 3.85% and indicating that inflation risks are balanced, which led to a more than 1% increase against the US dollar [3] - In contrast, the Japanese yen is under pressure due to the announcement of a 25% tariff on Japan and South Korea by President Trump, which has negatively impacted market expectations for Japanese exports and diminished the yen's traditional safe-haven appeal [3][4] Group 2 - The euro has reached a one-year high against the yen, reflecting global investors' preference for currencies from regions with clear economic policies and growth momentum, shifting away from traditional safe havens like the yen [4] - Trump's fluctuating policy stance complicates market expectations, with potential for renewed yen safe-haven attributes if trade tensions escalate or if the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is more dovish than anticipated [4] - The rebound of the Australian dollar and the decline of the yen are seen as structural changes in the currency market, influenced by complex policy signals and global macroeconomic expectations, indicating a prevailing trend of "stronger currencies remaining strong, while weaker currencies struggle" [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have recently risen, reaching a high of $3320.34 per ounce, supported by strong buying at lower levels and a weaker US dollar [2] - The US dollar index has dropped 0.5% to 96.76, marking its worst first half performance since the 1970s, with a monthly decline of 2.7% [2] - Concerns over the increasing US government deficit, projected to rise by $3.3 trillion due to tax cuts and spending, have weakened the dollar's appeal [2] Group 2 - Tensions between the White House and the Federal Reserve are increasing, with President Trump pressuring Fed Chairman Powell for significant interest rate cuts [3] - Recent trade agreements between the US and China regarding rare earth minerals have provided some hope for trade dialogue, while the EU has expressed willingness to negotiate tariffs [3] - The upcoming employment data in the US is critical for determining future monetary policy and could influence gold prices significantly [3] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a rebound phase, with key support at $3295 and resistance at $3335 [4][6] - The market is advised to wait for a pullback to $3295 for potential buying opportunities, while maintaining a cautious approach to avoid chasing prices [4][6] - The overall strategy suggests a focus on short positions while monitoring key price levels for potential reversals [6][7] Group 4 - Specific trading strategies include shorting gold at $3320-$3323 with a target of $3305-$3300, and buying on dips at $3295-$3300 with a target of $3305-$3310 [7] - Emphasis is placed on risk management, including setting stop-loss orders to mitigate potential losses [7][8] - The article highlights the importance of market analysis and adapting strategies based on market conditions to avoid significant losses [8]

Group 1 - The survey conducted by Reuters among 105 economists reveals a strong consensus on the timing and frequency of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with many predicting at least two cuts within the year [3][5] - Economists express concerns over the current state of the U.S. economy, highlighting challenges such as fluctuating inflation pressures, a weakening labor market, and increased uncertainty in the global trade environment [3][4] - The anticipated interest rate cuts are expected to alleviate pressures on corporate financing and consumer credit, thereby stimulating economic activity and supporting recovery [3][5] Group 2 - Economists forecast a modest growth of 1.4% for the U.S. economy in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026, indicating a cautious optimism despite various limiting factors [4] - The U.S. economy faces structural adjustments, with traditional manufacturing competitiveness declining and emerging industries not yet providing a robust growth engine [4] - The potential for government economic stimulus policies, along with strong technological innovation and a large domestic consumer market, may provide support for economic growth [4][5] Group 3 - The relationship between the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments and U.S. economic growth expectations is closely linked, with timely rate cuts expected to enhance market liquidity and boost investment and consumption [5] - Failure to adjust monetary policy in line with market expectations could lead to increased downward pressure on U.S. economic growth [5] - Changes in the Federal Reserve's policy will also have significant implications for global financial markets, affecting dollar liquidity, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital flows [5]

Core Viewpoint - Recent rebound in cotton prices is primarily influenced by substantial progress in high-level economic talks between China and the U.S., although macroeconomic uncertainties and favorable weather conditions for the new crop year may limit the extent of price increases [1][2][3] Group 1: Economic Factors - The high-level economic talks on May 10-11 resulted in significant tariff reductions, boosting market sentiment and leading to a rebound in cotton prices [1] - G7 finance ministers discussed imposing tariffs on small packages from China, with China's apparel exports to G7 countries (excluding the U.S.) accounting for 19.2% of total exports, which could significantly impact cotton demand [1][2] Group 2: Market Demand - Downstream enterprises reported a surge in shipments to the U.S. following the tariff reductions, but the overall demand remains weak due to several factors, including previous stockpiling and the cancellation of the small package tax exemption [2] - The 24% tariff suspension is temporary (90 days), creating uncertainty in global trade dynamics, which makes enterprises cautious about new orders [2] Group 3: Production Outlook - New cotton planting is nearly complete, with initial weather conditions being favorable, leading to optimistic expectations for increased production in Xinjiang [2] - The cotton production in Xinjiang is projected to reach a ten-year high, which may exert strong upward pressure on prices and limit the current rebound [2][3]

Group 1 - The CFO of Qualcomm (QCOM.O) indicated that there is uncertainty regarding the impact of the global trade environment on the demand for their various business segments [1]

张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 全球贸易环境拖累棉价，短期保持观望 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-04-29 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：在 2024/25 年度，除了云南以外，其他主要产区的糖厂已经开始收 榨，食糖的恢复性增产已成定局。五一等节假日的消费拉动了食糖需求，支 撑了糖价的稳定。国际方面，巴西在 2025/26 年度的制糖生产逐步展开，但 由于天气因素，其产糖量存在不确定性，预计短期内国际糖价将震荡走弱。 后续需关注国内甘蔗和甜菜的种植及生长情况，以及巴西的食糖生产进度。 软商品日报 走势评级： 白糖——震荡 棉花——震荡 棉花：由于美国对我国出口商品加征关税，中国的纺织品和服装出口出现 放缓，消费量减少了 20 万吨，降至 760 万吨，进口量也减少了 20 万吨， 降至 150 万吨。近期，新疆大部分地区气温偏高，这对棉花的播种总体上是 有利的。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURE ...

Skechers U.S.A., Inc. (NYSE:SKX) Q1 2025 Earnings Conference Call April 24, 2025 4:30 PM ET Company Participants Soo Hwang - Senior Director of International Merchandising David Weinberg - COO John Vandemore - CFO Conference Call Participants Jay Sole - UBS Laurent Vasilescu - BNP Paribas Peter McGoldrick - Stifel Adrienne Yih - Barclays Alex Straton - Morgan Stanley John Kernan - TD Cowen Jesalyn Wong - Evercore ISI Josh Reiss - Raymond James Krisztina Katai - Deutsche Bank Chris Nardone - Bank of America ...