新华社伦敦2月26日电 题：削弱规则、增加变数——多国专家批评美关税政策冲击全球贸易环境 新华社记者赵小娜 美国最高法院日前公布裁决，认定美国《国际紧急经济权力法》未授权总统大规模征收关税。此后，特 朗普政府宣布对来自所有国家和地区的商品加征15%的关税。多国学者表示，美国关税政策在法律依据 与实施方式上的频繁变动，令全球贸易环境陷入更深层次的不确定性。 政策反复削弱规则稳定性 一些专家认为，此轮关税争议的核心，不在于税率高低，而在于全球贸易规则可预期性的持续下降。政 策的反复调整，正在不断侵蚀市场对规则的信任。 英国伯明翰大学国际经济地理学教授约翰·布赖森表示，企业发展最需要稳定的政策环境，但在特朗普 政府的关税政策下，"唯一能确定的就是不确定性"。这种不确定性会直接抑制企业投资意愿、减少就业 岗位，迫使企业把大量资源花在应对政策变动上，而非扩大生产、加大技术研发。 他分析说，前一轮关税虽为美国政府带来超过千亿美元收入，但这些收入的代价实则由美国消费者和企 业承担。随着美国最高法院裁决可能引发的关税退税诉求，美国政府将面临双重压力：一是关税征收与 退税流程本身产生的行政成本，二是随之而来的法律纠纷和财政压力 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, which has shown a recovery trend after a period of decline, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies of the two countries and commodity price volatility [1][2]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern since the beginning of the year, with significant movements noted in January and February, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing fluctuations [1][2]. - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve has not yet clarified its rate cut timing, creating a disparity that supports the USD and pressures the CAD [2][3]. Group 2 - The global trade environment remains uncertain, contributing to fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, with market risk aversion occasionally driving funds towards the USD, indirectly supporting its rise against the CAD [2]. - As a commodity currency, the CAD's performance is closely tied to global commodity prices, with potential price recoveries supporting the CAD and limiting the USD/CAD exchange rate's upward movement [3]. - There is a significant divergence in institutional views regarding the medium to long-term outlook for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with some analysts suggesting that a rate cut by the Bank of Canada could lead to further increases in the exchange rate, while others believe that rising expectations for Fed rate cuts may weaken USD support [3].

Core Viewpoint - The United States has extended the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for one year, providing a crucial buffer for Ghana's trade relations with the U.S. [1] Group 1: Impact on Employment and Industries - The extension of AGOA is expected to protect thousands of jobs in Ghana, particularly in sectors reliant on U.S. exports such as textiles, agriculture processing, and cocoa products [1] - The Ghanaian Ministry of Trade emphasizes the importance of this extension for maintaining investor confidence [1] Group 2: Trade Relations and Future Challenges - The U.S. plans to implement a 10% global tariff in April 2025, followed by an additional 15% tariff specifically on Ghanaian exports in August 2025 [1] - The Ghanaian government has been actively negotiating with the U.S. to secure the continuation of AGOA benefits [1] Group 3: Collaborative Efforts - The extension is a result of collaboration between the Ghanaian government, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the World Trade Organization, and West African partners [1] - The Minister of Trade encourages export companies to leverage the "Accelerated Export Development Program" to further expand into the U.S. market [1] Group 4: Strategic Importance - Although the extension is only for one year, it provides a critical adjustment period for Ghanaian exporters to remain competitive in an increasingly complex global trade environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - European stock markets faced significant declines due to disappointing earnings reports from major companies across various sectors, leading to a negative market sentiment [1] Shipping Industry - Global shipping giant Maersk's stock plummeted by 7% after the company warned of deteriorating freight rates as the Red Sea routes reopen, with profit expectations for this year being slashed to between $4.5 billion and $7 billion, significantly lower than the $9.53 billion recorded in 2025 and below analysts' average estimate of $5.76 billion [4] - Maersk plans to focus on cost discipline, including cutting 1,000 jobs, which represents 15% of its corporate functions but less than 1% of total employees, with expected annual cost savings of $180 million [4] - The global container trade growth rate is projected to be between 2% and 4% this year, amidst a backdrop of significant supply pressure with nearly 7 million TEUs of capacity scheduled for delivery in the coming years, accounting for about 20% of the current global fleet [4] Automotive Industry - Volvo's stock fell by 14% after reporting disappointing fourth-quarter earnings, with an EBIT margin of only 2%, impacted by tariffs, increased discounts, and a strong Swedish Krona [5] - The CEO of Volvo highlighted the challenges posed by the cancellation of electric vehicle incentives in the U.S. and the need to adjust production to comply with EU tariffs on electric vehicle manufacturing [5] - Despite last year's poor performance, Volvo aims for higher sales and free cash flow by 2026, with new models like the EX60 electric SUV seen as crucial to its turnaround efforts [5] Telecommunications Industry - Vodafone's organic service revenue growth of 5.4% fell short of analysts' expectations of 6.03%, with the German market showing only a 0.7% increase, below the anticipated 1.02% [6] - The competitive landscape continues to pressure Vodafone's performance, with the UK market experiencing a 0.5% decline in organic service revenue, contrasting with the expected growth of 1.59% [6] - The CEO's ambitious transformation plan, which includes simplifying operations and divesting assets, has yet to yield significant recovery in core market growth [6]

Group 1 - The global economy is transitioning from "high volatility" to "new equilibrium," facing new uncertainties and challenges while instability and imbalance are somewhat reduced [2][4] - In 2026, a series of positive factors are expected to drive global economic recovery, including expansionary fiscal policies, loose monetary policies, and an AI investment boom [4][5] - Global GDP growth is projected to be between 2.9% and 3.1% in 2026, slightly lower than in 2025, with developed economies growing below 2% and emerging markets, especially in Asia, continuing to be the main growth drivers [5] Group 2 - The global trade environment shows signs of partial recovery, with the U.S. likely to pragmatically adjust aggressive trade protection measures and deepen multilateral cooperation [8][9] - However, new protectionist forces may emerge, particularly in developed economies like Europe, which may impose "rules-based" barriers to trade [9] Group 3 - Inflation pressures remain in developed economies, with service prices showing stickiness and tariff impacts having delayed effects [13][10] - Global inflation is expected to decrease from 4.2% in 2025 to between 3.2% and 3.6% in 2026, with most developed economies approaching a 2% target [11] Group 4 - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cut uncertainty is increasing, with potential further cuts in 2026 depending on economic conditions and inflation expectations [14][15] - The political landscape and economic data may influence the Fed's decisions on interest rates, with pressures from the Trump administration complicating the situation [15] Group 5 - Many countries are expected to increase fiscal policy efforts in 2026 to counter economic downturn risks, with significant public investment planned in various sectors [17][18] - However, some countries face constraints on fiscal expansion due to high debt levels and external pressures [18] Group 6 - U.S.-China economic relations may experience a phase of easing, with the U.S. adjusting its stance towards China and seeking selective cooperation in non-sensitive areas [21][22] - This shift is driven by economic interdependence and political considerations ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [22] Group 7 - Countries are increasingly prioritizing supply chain "self-sufficiency" due to geopolitical risks and technological competition, leading to a restructuring of supply chains in strategic sectors [24][25] Group 8 - Global stock markets are expected to experience cautious optimism, with potential for upward movement driven by interest rate cuts and AI investments, but structural differentiation may increase [26][27] - Emerging markets are likely to attract more investment due to favorable conditions, while U.S. markets may face volatility and risks associated with high valuations [28] Group 9 - The U.S. dollar is anticipated to remain weak, influenced by lower interest rates and various economic factors, with fluctuations expected within a range [29][30] Group 10 - Gold prices are projected to remain strong amid geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, although there may be short-term corrections due to various market factors [33][34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the macro and financial (treasury bond) sector is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Fed cut the federal funds target rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% on October 29, but Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur. The specific consensus on China-US economic and trade is beneficial for China to increase exports to the US and stabilize growth in the fourth quarter and next year. The easing of China-US economic and trade disputes is also conducive to stabilizing the global trade environment and the global industrial chain and supply chain. Treasury bond futures may oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, most of the opening prices of the main contracts of treasury bond futures were flat, and they fluctuated slightly upwards throughout the day. As of the close, the main contract of 30-year treasury bond futures TL2512 rose 0.19%, the 10-year T2512 rose 0.05%, the 5-year TF2512 was flat, and the 2-year TS2512 fell 0.01% [1] - The Wande All A stock index closed with a small negative line on Thursday, with a total trading volume of 2.46 trillion yuan, a slight increase from the previous trading day's 2.29 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - Open market: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 342.6 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations, with 212.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 130.1 billion yuan [1] - Money market: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter-bank money market declined compared with the previous trading day. The weighted average of DR001 throughout the day was 1.31% (1.40% the previous day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.50% (1.55% the previous day) [1] - Cash bond market: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter-bank treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2-year treasury bonds rose 3.45 basis points to 0.04%, the 5-year declined 1.74 basis points to 1.56%, the 10-year declined 1.10 basis points to 1.81%, and the 30-year declined 1.45 basis points to 2.16% [1] - On October 30, the Bank of Japan announced to keep the policy interest rate unchanged at 0.50%, in line with expectations [1] - As of the end of October, 500 billion yuan of new policy-based financial instruments had been fully invested, which is expected to drive the total project investment to exceed 7 trillion yuan [1] - On October 30, the European Central Bank announced to keep interest rates unchanged, with the deposit rate remaining at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.4% [2] 3.3 China-US Economic and Trade Consensus - The US will cancel the 10% so-called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods (including those from Hong Kong and Macau), and the 24% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods will be suspended for another year. China will adjust its countermeasures accordingly. Both sides agree to extend some tariff exclusion measures [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of the 50% penetration rule for export controls announced on September 29 for one year. China will suspend the implementation of relevant export control measures announced on October 9 for one year and study and refine specific plans [2] - The US will suspend the implementation of its Section 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. After the US suspends relevant measures, China will also suspend its countermeasures against the US for one year [2] - The two sides also reached consensus on fentanyl anti-drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. They further confirmed the results of the Madrid economic and trade consultations, and the US made positive commitments in the field of investment. China will properly resolve issues related to TikTok with the US [2] 3.4 Market Logic - On October 29, the Fed announced a 25-basis-point cut in the federal funds target rate to 3.75%-4.00%, in line with market expectations. However, Powell's hawkish speech lowered the market's expectation of a December rate cut. On October 30, the leaders of China and the United States held a meeting, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce introduced the consensus reached by the China-US economic and trade teams in Kuala Lumpur [2] 3.5 Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Points - The Tokyo stock market rebounded on October 24, with the Nikkei 225 index rising by 1.35% and the Tokyo Stock Exchange Price Index increasing by 0.48% [1] - The rally was driven by the overnight rise in the three major U.S. stock indices and a reduction in investor concerns regarding the global trade environment [1] - Semiconductor-related stocks, including SoftBank Group, Advantest, and Tokyo Electron, saw significant rebounds, influenced by the rise in U.S. tech stocks like Intel [1] - The Nikkei index experienced a high of nearly 800 points during the day, closing at 49,299.65 points, up by 658.04 points [1] - The Tokyo foreign exchange market saw the yen weaken against the dollar, providing support for export-related stocks [1] - Among the 33 industry sectors on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, non-ferrous metals, mining, and electrical products showed the highest gains, while real estate, other products, and other financial sectors lagged [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haigou Co., Ltd. (301063.SZ), indicated that its direct export revenue to the United States is relatively small and has not significantly impacted its operations [1] Group 1 - The company will continue to monitor changes in the global trade environment to ensure stable business development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Haigou Co., Ltd. (301063.SZ), indicated that its product revenue directly exported to the United States is relatively small and has not significantly impacted its operations [1] Group 1 - The company will continue to monitor changes in the global trade environment to ensure stable business development [1]

Core Insights - The S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for China in August rose to 50.5 from 49.5, indicating a return to expansion in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase in new orders, which reached the fastest growth in five months, was the main driver for the PMI rebound, supported by domestic promotional activities and improved basic demand [1] - Although new export orders remain slightly below the neutral line, the pace of decline has significantly slowed compared to July, suggesting initial stabilization in the global trade environment [1] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The improvement in order conditions has led to a recovery in manufacturing production, ending a contraction phase from July [1] - Companies are showing increased willingness to procure, with both raw material and finished goods inventories accumulating, and the growth rate of unfinished orders reaching a six-month high [1] - Despite the increase in orders leading to higher capacity pressure, companies remain cautious in hiring, marking the fifth consecutive month of layoffs in the manufacturing sector [1] Economic Outlook - Analysts suggest that the return of the PMI to the expansion zone reflects the initial effects of recent domestic demand-boosting policies, with both internal and external demand contributing to short-term economic recovery [1] - However, challenges such as operational pressures on small and medium-sized enterprises and a weak job market need to be monitored, as the sustainability of economic recovery will depend on policy support for micro-entities and changes in the global trade environment [1][2]