关税下调叠加下年度供需缩紧,郑棉增仓大涨 2026/02/24 份 是譜雯 究 从业资格号:F3083970 员 投资咨询号: Z0016293 价格表现 近期宏观与产业利好共振。 宏观方面,关税下调,提振大宗商品氛围。新华社报道,当地时间2月20日,美国最高法院以6票对3票的结果裁 定,特朗普政府依据"国际紧急经济权利法"IEEPA征收的大规模关税失效。对此,特朗普宣布将依据美国《1974年 贸易法》第122条、从2026年2月24日起〈有效期150天）,推出新的10%全球临时关税,随后上调至15%（上限即为 15%)。由此,美对中去年起加征的20%关税(10%的基础关税、在10%以上暂缓征收的对等关税,以及10%"芬太尼" 关税)已失效,降至15%。 产业方面,USDA农业展望论坛对26/27年度首份预期报告利好。根据USDA、USDA农业展望论坛预计,26/27年度, 全球棉花总产预期同比减少3.2%,消费同比增加1.2%,期末库存同比减少5.2%,库销比同比下降6.3%。预计26/27年 度,美棉种植面积预计同比增1.3%,收获面积同比减少2.2%,单产持平,美棉总产预期296万吨,同比减少2.3%, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoint - The cotton price is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern in the future, driven by factors such as festival stocking and a reduction in cotton - planting area. Although the domestic cotton commercial inventory is at a high level, the short - term inventory pressure is controllable due to the combination of downstream rigid demand replenishment and the expectation of reduced planting in the future [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price is 14,650 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price is 20,515 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan - Cotton futures top 20 net positions are - 155,478 lots, an increase of 8,641 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions are - 1,505 lots, an increase of 331 lots - Cotton main contract open interest is 795,878 lots, down 7,457 lots; cotton yarn main contract open interest is 13,284 lots, down 987 lots - Cotton warehouse receipt quantity is 10,144 sheets, an increase of 172 sheets; cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 15,995 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan; China Yarn Price Index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,365 yuan/ton, unchanged - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 12,445 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM: sliding - scale tariff) is 13,633 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan - The arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton carded yarn 32s) is 21,068 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index (pure cotton combed yarn 32s) is 22,557 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,370 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 848,000 tons, down 2,000 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of cotton is 180,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 170,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons - The daily profit of imported cotton is 2,237 yuan/ton, an increase of 82 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 5.7847 million tons, an increase of 1.1011 million tons [2] Downstream Situation - The inventory days of yarn are 25.12 days, down 1.21 days; the inventory days of grey cloth are 33.76 days, up 1.42 days - The monthly output of cloth is 3.01 billion meters, an increase of 0.2 billion meters; the monthly output of yarn is 2.132 million tons, an increase of 93,000 tons - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 134,124,120,000 US dollars, an increase of 18,187,260,000 US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products is 125,796,030,000 US dollars, an increase of 3,038,700,000 US dollars [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 12.13%, down 0.75%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 12.16%, down 0.7% - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 14.8%, up 0.08%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 9.45%, up 0.01% [2] Industry News - According to the USDA report, in the week ending January 15, the net export sales of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season increased by 412,500 bales, reaching the annual high, a 21% increase from the previous week and a 119% increase from the average of the previous four weeks. The export shipment volume of US upland cotton in the 2025/26 season was 187,800 bales, a 20% increase from the previous week and a 26% increase from the average of the previous four weeks - According to a Brazilian authoritative institution, in December 2025, Brazil exported 452,500 tons of cotton, a 28.2% year - on - year increase. In the first five months of the 2025/26 season, the cumulative export volume was 1.405 million tons, a 15.7% year - on - year increase, reaching the highest export volume from August to December in history [2]

Sugar Industry - The average sugarcane yield in Brazil's central-south region for December 2025 is projected to be 73.4 tons per hectare, an increase of 26.6% compared to 58 tons per hectare in the same period of 2024 [2] - The cumulative yield for the 2025/26 crushing season (April to December) is expected to be 74.7 tons per hectare, down 4.6% from 78.3 tons per hectare in the previous season [2] - Spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5270 to 5360 yuan per ton, down by 10 to 20 yuan per ton; in Yunnan, prices are between 5120 and 5160 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan per ton [2][6] - The raw sugar market continues to show a fluctuating pattern, with domestic spot prices declining and transaction volumes decreasing, leading to a sustained accumulation of inventory [2][6] Cotton Industry - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.06% to 64.3 cents per pound, while Zheng cotton's main contract rose by 0.17% to 14535 yuan per ton, with a decrease in open interest by 908 contracts to 787200 contracts [3][7] - The cotton 3128B spot price index is at 15445 yuan per ton, an increase of 55 yuan per ton from the previous day [3][7] - The market is currently focused on supply dynamics, pre-holiday downstream stocking demand, and operational conditions, with expectations of increased cotton production and imports [3][7] - Textile companies have been replenishing raw material inventories, but the motivation for significant restocking before the holiday is weak, with available days of textile raw material inventory at approximately 32 days [3][7] - As the Spring Festival approaches, operational rates are expected to gradually decline, and the current fundamentals may not support a sustained rise in cotton prices, although future policy developments remain promising [3][7]

Sugar Market - The current spot price range for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group is 5320 to 5380 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton for some quotes [2] - Yunnan Sugar Group's price is between 5190 to 5230 CNY/ton, also down by 10 CNY/ton for certain quotes [2] - Raw sugar prices are under pressure due to declining energy prices and a significant increase in India's production year-on-year, necessitating attention to production progress in Thailand and India [2] - The domestic market is experiencing moderate transactions, with expectations for future import regulation, providing some support for prices; however, there is significant pressure above the 5300 CNY/ton level, leading to a forecast of weak fluctuations as holidays approach [2] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton prices fell by 0.57%, closing at 64.62 cents/pound, while Zhengzhou cotton futures dropped by 0.61% to 14675 CNY/ton, with a decrease in open interest by 6537 contracts to 835800 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is 15550 CNY/ton, down by 65 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - Internationally, geopolitical tensions are affecting the market, and the likelihood of no interest rate cuts in January in the U.S. is contributing to a strong dollar index above 99 [8] - The USDA's January report has reduced the expected U.S. cotton production for 2025/26, providing some support for cotton prices [8] - In the domestic market, Zhengzhou cotton has shown reduced volatility, primarily fluctuating within a narrow range, while the USDA report has increased the expected production and consumption of cotton in China for 2025/26, aligning with market expectations [8] - Recent data indicates a year-on-year decline in clothing exports, and there are significant differences in raw material inventory levels among textile enterprises, highlighting the need to monitor replenishment actions before the holiday [8] - Overall, short-term fluctuations in Zhengzhou cotton prices may show some divergence, but there are positive expectations from policy developments in the medium to long term, suggesting potential upward movement in cotton prices [8]

Sugar Market - As of January 7, 2025/26 crushing season, Thailand's cumulative sugarcane crushed reached 16.9782 million tons, a decrease of 5.765 million tons or 25.35% compared to the same period last year [3][6] - Sugar content in sugarcane was 11.54%, down 0.08% from 11.62% last year; sugar extraction rate was 9.017%, a decrease of 0.209% from 9.226% last year [3][6] - Sugar production amounted to 1.5309 million tons, down 567,300 tons or 27.03% from 2.0982 million tons last year [3][6] - Current spot prices for sugar in Guangxi range from 5,320 to 5,380 CNY/ton, with a slight increase of 10 CNY/ton for some; Yunnan's prices remain stable at 5,140 to 5,230 CNY/ton [3][6] - Domestic sugar prices have been supported by macroeconomic sentiment and a rebound in commodity prices, but there is significant pressure from hedging positions, leading to expectations of continued price fluctuations [3][6] Cotton Market - On Thursday, ICE cotton fell by 0.69%, closing at 64.4 cents per pound; Zheng cotton's main contract decreased by 1.5%, closing at 14,740 CNY/ton [7] - The main contract's open interest decreased by 62,575 contracts to 852,900 contracts; the cotton 3128B spot price index was 15,610 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [7] - The international market is experiencing significant macro disturbances, with limited marginal changes in fundamentals, leading to a predominantly volatile market [7] - Domestic market sentiment has cooled slightly, with recent strong expectations driving prices; however, increased procurement costs at high price levels may impact future operations [7] - The market is expected to experience wide fluctuations in the short term, while medium to long-term policies may provide positive outlooks for cotton prices [7]

Group 1 - The domestic cotton market experienced fluctuations in November, characterized by a decline followed by a rebound, with domestic prices showing strength while international prices remained weak [1][2] - The China Cotton Price Index decreased from 14,859 CNY/ton to a low of 14,779 CNY/ton in early November, before rebounding to a month-end high of 14,896 CNY/ton, resulting in a month average of 14,831 CNY/ton, which is an increase of 67 CNY compared to the previous month but a decrease of 497 CNY year-on-year [2] - The futures market showed greater volatility than the spot market, with the main contract for Zheng cotton dropping from 13,640 CNY/ton to 13,380 CNY/ton before recovering to 13,725 CNY/ton, resulting in a month average settlement price of 14,543 CNY/ton, which is an increase of 94 CNY month-on-month and 536 CNY year-on-year [4] Group 2 - The demand for long-staple cotton remained stable, with prices holding steady; the price for 137-grade long-staple cotton was 25,000 CNY/ton at the end of the month, unchanged from the previous month, while the month average transaction price increased by 1,800 CNY/ton year-on-year [6] - The international cotton price faced downward pressure due to concerns over economic slowdown and increased global production forecasts, with the average price of imported cotton at 74.11 cents/pound, a decrease of 0.4% month-on-month [7] - Domestic cotton yarn prices slightly rebounded in November, with the average price for domestic 32-count cotton yarn at 20,564 CNY/ton, an increase of 95 CNY month-on-month, while polyester and viscose staple fibers continued to decline due to weak downstream demand [10][11]

Sugar Industry - Green Pool forecasts that Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season will increase by 6% year-on-year to 10.7 million tons [2] - For the 2026/27 season, sugar production is expected to decline by 7.5% to 9.9 million tons [2] - Current spot prices from Guangxi Sugar Group range from 5,390 to 5,470 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 20 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group prices are between 5,320 and 5,360 CNY/ton, while processing plants maintain prices between 5,700 and 5,900 CNY/ton [2][7] - The raw sugar futures market continues to experience fluctuations without new driving factors; domestic spot transactions are average, and with more sugar factories starting production, short-term supply is sufficient, leading to a pessimistic market sentiment [2][7] - The May contract is in a weak consolidation phase, and the market is expected to remain under pressure in the medium term [2][7] Cotton Industry - On Wednesday, ICE cotton rose by 0.41% to close at 64.12 cents per pound, while CF601 increased by 0.15% to 13,780 CNY/ton; the main contract's open interest decreased by 5,219 contracts to 473,300 contracts [8] - The cotton price index for 3128B is 14,590 CNY/ton, up by 20 CNY/ton from the previous day [8] - The Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but there are divergences in the future rate cut path among committee members, leading to a slight weakening of the dollar index and a small upward shift in cotton futures prices [8] - Domestic cotton prices are currently maintaining a fluctuating trend; the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference is being closely monitored [8] - Despite high monthly consumption levels in November, the second half of the month saw a decrease in cotton consumption compared to the first half, indicating a weakening of upward driving factors for cotton prices [8] - The outlook suggests a mixed market with various influencing factors, with a short-term expectation of a fluctuating pattern; however, in the medium to long term, it is believed that the upside potential for cotton prices is greater than the downside [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market is in a phase of fluctuating downward, and the price center is expected to decline in the later stage. The short - term situation is that during the new cotton listing and harvest period, the new cotton output exceeds expectations, and although it is the demand peak season, downstream orders are less than expected, which may put pressure on cotton prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose, domestic output may reach a recent high, and demand growth is insufficient, so the cotton price is expected to run at a low level. Therefore, in the short - term, the cotton price is weakening, and the operation strategy should be to sell short on rallies [2]. - For different participants in the industrial chain, corresponding hedging operations are proposed. For example, for those worried about rising cotton prices, they can buy call options; for those worried about falling cotton prices, they can sell futures for hedging [2]. - Attention should be paid to data such as US cotton exports and USDA report data [2]. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In the 2024/25 season, global cotton production is expected to increase, consumption has recovered to some extent, and the ending inventory has increased. In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production remains at a relatively high level, demand is stable, and the ending inventory is expected to decrease slightly. The USDA September report shows that in 2024/26, the global output is 2595.7 tons, consumption is 2544.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1612.6 tons; in 2025/26, the output is 2562.2 tons, consumption is 2581.2 tons, and the ending inventory is 1592.5 tons [56][57]. - In Brazil, the new - season production forecast remains high. The 2024/26 season's total production is expected to be 407.7 tons, and in 2025/26, it is expected to be 402.8 tons, with a slight decrease in the planting area [63]. - In India, although the area of unginned cotton has decreased this year and there have been local rainfall disasters, the production is expected to be relatively optimistic, ranging from 300 - 570 tons [63]. - In the US, in the 2024/25 season, the cotton planting area increased, the harvested area increased significantly, but the yield per unit decreased due to drought, and the production increased. In the 2025/26 season, the planting area decreased, the harvested area increased, the yield per unit is expected to decline, and the production is expected to decrease. The US textile and clothing demand has recovered to some extent, but the subsequent demand still needs to be tracked. The US cotton export sales progress is slow [63]. Domestic Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - In terms of production, in 2024, the cotton planting area decreased slightly, but the yield per unit was good, and the production reached a recent high. It is expected that the production in Xinjiang may be about 6.4 million tons, and the national production is expected to be about 6.85 million tons, a 13.8% increase from the previous year. In 2025, the intended planting area increased, and the weather in the producing areas was generally good, with a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. As of November 10, 2025, the cotton picking progress in Xinjiang was about 98.5% [17][22]. - In terms of inventory, last year's cotton imports decreased significantly, and the commercial inventory decreased significantly. After entering the new season, with the listing of new cotton, the inventory quickly recovered. As of the end of October 2025, the cotton commercial inventory was 2.9306 million tons, a decrease of 1.9089 million tons from the previous month; the industrial inventory was 0.8882 million tons, a decrease of 0.0427 million tons from the previous month [20][23]. - In terms of imports, the domestic cotton production and sales have a certain gap, and imports are needed to supplement the supply. In 2025, the sliding - scale tariff quota was issued, but the quantity was low, and the import increase in the fourth quarter is expected to be limited. In 2026, the 1% tariff quota is 894,000 tons. According to the results of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, China has lowered the import tariff on US cotton by 15%, but still retains a 10% additional tariff [30]. - In terms of downstream demand, overseas interest - rate cut rhythms are still variable, but the Sino - US economic and trade consultations are progressing smoothly, and trade policy disturbances have eased. Domestic policies are strengthening to boost the economy, but the demand recovery still needs to be tracked. Downstream orders are insufficient, textile enterprises' finished - product inventories are higher than the same period last year, the operating load is at a low level, and the industrial chain is under great pressure. Textile and clothing exports have decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, while retail data has performed well [37]. Policy - Reserve Rotation - The state adjusts the cotton market supply and demand through policies such as national reserve cotton rotation to stabilize cotton prices. In 2023, the national reserve cotton rotation out started on July 31 and ended on November 14, effectively supplementing market supply and ensuring the stable operation of the cotton market. In 2025, the planned rotation out was 1.2121 million tons, the actual成交 was 0.8639 million tons, the成交 rate was 71.27%, and the average成交 price was 17,430.49 yuan/ton [46][47]. Price Difference and Basis - The report presents data on cotton spreads such as 1 - 5 spreads, 9 - 1 spreads, 5 - 9 spreads, and basis data for different contracts (01, 05, 09), which can help analyze the market structure and price relationships [69][74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short term, the upside potential of cotton prices is limited, and they are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Domestic cotton prices continued a slight rebound supported by rising acquisition costs and positive expectations from Sino - US negotiations, but the rebound momentum slowed as positive factors were digested. ICE cotton futures prices rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects, despite the lack of significant improvement in the industrial fundamentals [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 01 Market Review - **US Cotton Weekly Review**: US cotton rebounded due to Fed rate - cut expectations and Sino - US negotiation prospects. As of September 26, non - commercial long positions were 69,367 contracts, a decrease of 751 from the previous week; non - commercial short net positions were 114,787 contracts, an increase of 2,020; non - commercial net positions were - 45,420 contracts, a decrease of 2,771 [9]. - **Zhengzhou Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton fluctuated narrowly, ranging from 13,520 to 13,675 yuan/ton, with a Friday closing price of 13,595 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 55 yuan or 0.41%. As of October 31, the registered and forecasted cotton warrants totaled 3,858 contracts, equivalent to 162,000 tons [10]. - **Cotton Textile Spot Weekly Data**: Spot prices were basically stable, but trading was sluggish. The seed cotton acquisition price showed a trend of first falling and then rising, with the price in the current week at 6.4 - 6.5 yuan/kg, supporting cotton prices. The overall spot basis narrowed, and many cotton merchants lowered their spot sales basis [12][14]. 02 Domestic Cotton Market - **Supply**: The China Cotton Association predicts that the 2025/26 cotton output will reach 7.216 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%, with Xinjiang's output expected to be about 6.911 million tons, a 9.2% increase and accounting for 95.8% of the national total. New cotton listing is slower than in previous years. In September 2025, China imported 95,000 tons of cotton, with Australia and Brazil being the main sources [17][25]. - **Demand**: Demand is weaker than in previous years, with no obvious domestic demand improvement and a slight improvement in exports. Weaving mills' raw material procurement is mainly on a wait - and - see basis, with orders - based purchasing [27][33]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing profit of ginning mills was 396 - 445 yuan/ton, and the immediate profit of spinning mills was - 1,022.1 to - 945.3 yuan/ton, a decline from the previous week [36]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of October 31, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.3261 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 484,500 tons and 77,200 tons higher than the same period last year. At the end of September, the industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 845,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 46,800 tons [42]. 03 International Market - **Global Cotton Supply and Demand**: According to the latest USDA September forecast, the global cotton output in September was 25.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; total consumption increased by 184,000 tons to 25.68 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 168,000 tons to 15.92 million tons [44]. - **US Cotton Export**: Due to the US government shutdown, most USDA reports have suspended disclosure [47]. - **US Cotton Growth**: No specific content provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an explicit industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The new - year global cotton supply - demand contradiction is not significant, but there are many uncertainties and large adjustment space in the global supply - demand balance sheet, with the supply - demand report being neutral. Short - term global cotton prices are constrained by harvest pressure. [28] - In China, the new - year production increase expectation is strong, commercial inventory is rising rapidly, and industrial inventory is at a neutral level. The period of the tightest cotton supply has passed. The current cotton - yarn price spread is low, domestic and export demand is weak, and downstream textile mills purchase as needed. [28] - If there is no substantial progress in Sino - US tariff negotiations, cotton prices are expected to face upward pressure due to expected production increase, weak demand, and downstream losses. [28] 3. Summary by Directory Global Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.65 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons. Global consumption is expected to increase by 180,000 tons to 25.9 million tons, and the global ending inventory is 15.94 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 170,000 tons. The supply - demand report is neutral. [2] US Cotton Supply - Demand Situation - The USDA's September supply - demand report shows that the estimated cotton production is 2.88 million tons, unchanged from the August estimate. The estimated ending inventory is 780,000 tons, unchanged from August and 90,000 tons more than the previous year's ending inventory. [6] Domestic Cotton Industry Chain Situation - **Domestic Cotton Production Increase**: In 2025, the national cotton planting area is 47.306 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 7.6%. Total cotton output is adjusted up by 516,000 tons to 7.415 million tons. The purchase price of seed cotton showed a pattern of high - opening, low - going, and then rebounding. In October, there was a rare scramble for purchases in Xinjiang. [7][11] - **Cotton Inventory Situation**: As of the end of September, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.02 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 670,000 tons. It is expected to reach over 2.5 million tons by October, ending the stage of supply shortage. As of the end of September, the industrial cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 850,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 70,000 tons, at a neutral level. [12][16] - **Textile Mill Yarn Inventory**: As of the end of October, the textile mill yarn inventory was 30.1 days, a year - on - year increase of 5 days, at a neutral - to - high level. [17] - **Textile and Apparel Export Situation**: In September 2025, China's textile and apparel export total was $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative textile and apparel exports were $221.69 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. [19][21] Domestic Cotton Valuation Situation - At the end of October, the average purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang is expected to be around 6.2 yuan/kg, corresponding to a new - cotton cost of around 14,600 yuan/ton. The current domestic cotton - yarn price spread is around 5,700, at a low level. Xinjiang's textile profit is at the break - even point, while inland textile profit is in the red. Overall, downstream industry chain profits are low, which is not conducive to downstream active inventory replenishment. [22][25]