Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential for a market rebound due to a combination of loose monetary policy and a resolution to tariff issues, creating a favorable environment for stocks, similar to the situation in 2018 [3][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Historical Context - Tom Lee from Fundstrat Global Advisors suggests that the current market reaction to tariffs may mirror that of 2018, despite significant differences in the economic landscape [3][4]. - In 2018, the S&P 500 index fell 12% within 10 days after Trump's tariff announcements, followed by a 9% drop after actual tariff announcements, and a subsequent 20% decline due to interest rate hike signals from the Fed [5]. - Lee notes that after these declines, the S&P 500 surged over 30% in 2019, indicating potential for recovery after current market volatility [5]. Group 2: Current Market Conditions - The Federal Reserve is currently considering further interest rate cuts rather than hikes, which contrasts with the 2018 scenario [5]. - The S&P 500 has rebounded above its 50-day moving average, suggesting a more favorable technical outlook for the market [5]. - The VIX index is expected to rise around the April 2 tariff deadline but is anticipated to decline afterward, indicating market resilience [5]. Group 3: Economic Sentiment and CEO Confidence - Lee expresses surprise at the rapid deterioration of market sentiment, particularly among CEOs, but believes that if economic disruptions are not prolonged, they may be temporary [6]. - The S&P 500's 10% drop reflects a 40% probability of recession, but Lee argues that the market does not fully align with this pessimism, as other global markets have outperformed the U.S. since February 18 [6]. - The article suggests that a significant rebound in the stock market post-April 2 could restore CEO confidence and mitigate negative impacts on economic growth [6]. Group 4: Investment Outlook - Lee counters concerns about foreign investors' hesitance towards U.S. investments, stating that investors seeking quality companies will still favor U.S. markets [6]. - A mutually acceptable trade agreement could alleviate trade tensions and enhance the attractiveness of the U.S. market for investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "coward's game" amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices hit six-month lows due to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with no signs of market support from him [1][4]. - Following a significant drop, Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which led to further declines in the stock market [4]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that a recession may be necessary for the U.S. economy, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will be the first to "give in" by lowering interest rates to support the economy, despite rising front-end rates during stock sell-offs [2][7]. - Analysts warn that the Fed's primary focus remains on controlling inflation, and any rate cuts may send misleading signals if economic growth slows but remains positive [2][11]. - The interaction between the Fed and the government is characterized as a "repeated game," where credibility is crucial, and the Fed may hesitate to lower rates if inflation remains above target [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the U.S., citing unfavorable trade policy assumptions and the government's management of expectations regarding potential recession [10]. - The current economic situation is described as a "manufactured recession," with concerns about the timing of necessary economic adjustments and the potential for a wealth effect [13]. - The risks of a U.S. recession could have global implications, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, affecting markets worldwide [14].

来源｜财经连环话 信号已经再明确不过了，所谓"特朗普看跌期权"（即总统会为保股市调整政策）或许只是市场的一厢情愿。 以下文章来源于财经连环话 ，作者轱辘慧 财经连环话 . 一张图看懂财经万象，专业财经，轻松看懂。唯一正牌官方号。 发出信号的正是特朗普本人。 周四，当被问及美股暴跌时，他轻飘飘甩出一句："我对股市压根连看都不看"。 美股最惨烈的一周 上周的美股市场，堪称特朗普胜选以来最惨烈的一周。 标普500指数不仅抹去其上任后的全部涨幅，更是首次跌破200日均线，纳斯达克100指数一度跌入技术性修正区间。 曾经风光无限的科技股"七姐妹"三周内市值蒸发超10%，仅英伟达一家便跌去近1万亿美元。更让交易员崩溃的是标普连续7天波动超1%，这种剧烈震荡自 2020年大选争议以来首次出现。 即便是周五的就业数据后，美联储主席鲍威尔紧急救火也未能完全安抚市场，三大股指勉强收红，投资者在反复"仰卧起坐"中直呼心累。 轱辘慧此前《暴跌，现在逃还来得及吗》等文章中提到，市场动荡的背后，是特朗普政府一系列政策的累积效应，加征关税、削减政府开支、DOGE主导 的裁员等一系列操作极大打击了股市情绪与经济韧性。 "特朗普看跌期权"从何 ...