Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict is described as a "struggle," with a call for emergency plans to assist affected businesses and accelerate policy easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need for Beijing to adopt bolder actions to address unprecedented challenges, including cleaning up the real estate sector and reforming the pension system to support consumption sustainably [5] - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and prices, particularly in light of the significant tariffs imposed by the US [9] Summary by Sections Economic Policy Measures - The report urges the implementation of "more proactive macroeconomic policies" and emphasizes the need to accelerate policy execution [6] - It suggests that the government should expedite the use of special bonds issued by local and central governments [6] - The report maintains predictions for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 15 basis point interest rate cut in the second quarter, with similar actions expected in the fourth quarter [6] Support for Affected Industries - New structural monetary policy tools and financial instruments will be introduced to support technological development, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [8] - A new relending plan will be launched to promote service consumption and elderly care services [8] - The leadership has committed to increasing the unemployment insurance fund's return ratio to support employment stability for businesses severely impacted by tariffs [8] Agricultural and Labor Market Stability - The report stresses the need to enhance domestic agricultural production to stabilize prices of essential goods, especially in light of the US's high tariffs on Chinese imports [9] - It highlights the challenges posed by the low substitutability of certain US-imported agricultural products and the time required for domestic production adjustments [9] - The report underscores the importance of providing multifaceted support to struggling enterprises, including improving financing channels [10]

欧盟将对总额260亿欧元的美国商品加征关税，加拿大对298亿加元的美国商品加征关税。各国都希 望避免与美国全面对抗，但不得不对特朗普打出强硬牌。如果连锁报复持续下去，经济减速风险将会增 加…… 针对美国特朗普政府启动的关税措施进行报复的动向正在扩大。3月12日，欧盟（EU）和加拿大分别宣 布了对美国采取的报复性关税措施。虽然各个国家和地区的真实想法都是希望避免与世界经济中心美国 展开全面对决，但却不得不采取对抗措施。如果连锁报复持续下去，各国经济减速的风险将会增加。 德国蒂森克虏伯的钢厂（2023年11月，德国西部的杜伊斯堡，REUTERS） 欧盟委员会宣布，将对总额相当于260亿欧元的进口自美国的商品征收报复性关税。 欧盟委员会的 高官当天解释称，"攻击的是对美国很重要，但对我们来说成本不太高的领域"。 将消费者的负担降至最低，对美国实现最大限度的"报复效果" 此举意在将欧盟区域内的企业和消费者的成本负担降至最低，同时对美国实现最大限度的"报复效果"。 这一目的体现在报复性关税涉及的商品种类中。此次涉及的对象种类繁多，除了肉类、蔬菜、豆类、酒 类等食品外，还主要涵盖电子烟、割草机、工具、摩托车、女性内衣等日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "coward's game" amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices hit six-month lows due to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with no signs of market support from him [1][4]. - Following a significant drop, Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which led to further declines in the stock market [4]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that a recession may be necessary for the U.S. economy, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will be the first to "give in" by lowering interest rates to support the economy, despite rising front-end rates during stock sell-offs [2][7]. - Analysts warn that the Fed's primary focus remains on controlling inflation, and any rate cuts may send misleading signals if economic growth slows but remains positive [2][11]. - The interaction between the Fed and the government is characterized as a "repeated game," where credibility is crucial, and the Fed may hesitate to lower rates if inflation remains above target [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the U.S., citing unfavorable trade policy assumptions and the government's management of expectations regarding potential recession [10]. - The current economic situation is described as a "manufactured recession," with concerns about the timing of necessary economic adjustments and the potential for a wealth effect [13]. - The risks of a U.S. recession could have global implications, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, affecting markets worldwide [14].