这种调整恰好呈现了2025年全球经济的核心转变：从年初面对冲击的"应激反应"，到年尾构建自身 的"适应性"。我们不再仅仅预测不确定性，而是在学习如何与之共存。 对我而言，这场关税"海啸"的源头，远比4月2日美国总统那纸行政令更早。它始于2024年大选期间"普 遍关税"的竞选语言，成形于今年1月美国新政府针对前三大贸易伙伴的行动，并在2月最终具象为"对等 关税"的概念。此后，美国关税政策的反复与拉扯，成了我全年报道的核心。每日清晨查看白宫更新， 处理邮箱里蜂拥而至的智库报告，成了我的工作常态。 在这场信息的狂轰滥炸中，"不确定性"无疑是最贴切的年度注脚。起初，这种不确定性笼罩着浓厚的悲 观预期。3月底，一位全球投资咨询公司的首席策略师在一场内部研讨会中表示，到年底标普500指数可 能跌至4450点，较年初下跌24%。然而，截至今天，标普500指数年内实际录得约18%的涨幅。 这说明，全球经济的剧本远比想象复杂，而作为观众的全球贸易体系与金融市场，其反应也发生了微妙 演变。4月的市场在冲击波面前仍会剧烈震荡，那到了年末，它已经像一台加装了减震器的机器，开始 尝试从波动本身中分离出可定价的风险与机会。 这种"抗冲击 ...

Core Viewpoint - The essence of the current tariff war is not merely the adjustment of tax rates, but a precise game surrounding the future reshaping of global industrial chains [25]. Group 1: Tariff War Dynamics - The recent escalation in the tariff war has seen Trump threaten a 100% tariff on Chinese goods and restrict software exports to China, prompting a series of countermeasures from China, including actions related to rare earths and shipping fees [2][5]. - Business leaders are adopting a more pragmatic approach, shifting from long-term investments to short-term flexibility in response to the uncertainty created by the tariff war [7][26]. - The current tariff war is characterized as a "chicken game," where both sides are aware that neither can afford to back down completely, leading to a stalemate [26]. Group 2: Trade Data and Market Adjustments - China's exports in September increased by 8.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations, while the total trade value for the first three quarters of the year reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a 4% increase [30][29]. - Despite a 16.9% year-on-year decline in exports to the U.S. during the first three quarters, exports to ASEAN and the EU have seen significant growth, indicating a shift in trade dynamics [35][37]. - The resilience of Chinese exports is highlighted by a notable increase in exports to Africa, which grew by 27.3% year-on-year, showcasing the potential for market diversification [35][48]. Group 3: Strategic Insights for Businesses - Companies are increasingly recognizing the need to diversify their markets and reduce reliance on a single market, leading to what is termed a "super resilience transformation" [37][48]. - The future of trade will likely see a continued focus on regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, as companies seek to navigate the complexities of the current geopolitical landscape [48][49]. - The importance of understanding both adversaries and allies in the context of the tariff war is emphasized, as companies need to be well-informed to adapt their strategies effectively [39][40].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The ongoing US-China trade conflict is described as a "struggle," with a call for emergency plans to assist affected businesses and accelerate policy easing measures [1] - The report highlights the need for Beijing to adopt bolder actions to address unprecedented challenges, including cleaning up the real estate sector and reforming the pension system to support consumption sustainably [5] - The meeting emphasized the importance of stabilizing employment and prices, particularly in light of the significant tariffs imposed by the US [9] Summary by Sections Economic Policy Measures - The report urges the implementation of "more proactive macroeconomic policies" and emphasizes the need to accelerate policy execution [6] - It suggests that the government should expedite the use of special bonds issued by local and central governments [6] - The report maintains predictions for a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut and a 15 basis point interest rate cut in the second quarter, with similar actions expected in the fourth quarter [6] Support for Affected Industries - New structural monetary policy tools and financial instruments will be introduced to support technological development, expand consumption, and stabilize foreign trade [8] - A new relending plan will be launched to promote service consumption and elderly care services [8] - The leadership has committed to increasing the unemployment insurance fund's return ratio to support employment stability for businesses severely impacted by tariffs [8] Agricultural and Labor Market Stability - The report stresses the need to enhance domestic agricultural production to stabilize prices of essential goods, especially in light of the US's high tariffs on Chinese imports [9] - It highlights the challenges posed by the low substitutability of certain US-imported agricultural products and the time required for domestic production adjustments [9] - The report underscores the importance of providing multifaceted support to struggling enterprises, including improving financing channels [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and other countries, particularly the EU and Canada, in response to the tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on steel and aluminum imports. The potential for economic slowdown due to retaliatory measures is highlighted. Group 1: EU and Canada’s Response - The EU announced retaliatory tariffs on US goods totaling €26 billion, targeting sectors that are significant to the US but less impactful for the EU [2][3] - Canada implemented retaliatory tariffs on US imports worth CAD 29.8 billion, criticizing the US tariffs as "unreasonable and unfair" [3][4] Group 2: Impact on Trade Relations - The US tariffs on steel and aluminum, set at 25%, are expected to increase inflationary pressures and reduce the operating profits of major US automotive companies by up to 4% [1][3] - The EU's list of targeted goods includes over 2,000 items, aiming to minimize the cost burden on EU consumers while maximizing the impact on the US [3][4] Group 3: Broader Trade Dynamics - The article notes that countries like China and Mexico are also involved in retaliatory measures against US tariffs, indicating a broader trend of escalating trade conflicts [4][5] - The potential for further retaliatory actions remains, with the EU planning to implement measures in two phases based on negotiations with the US [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is experiencing a "coward's game" amid uncertainty surrounding Trump's trade policies and the Federal Reserve's response to economic conditions [1][7]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The U.S. stock market indices hit six-month lows due to Trump's fluctuating tariff policies, with no signs of market support from him [1][4]. - Following a significant drop, Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum, which led to further declines in the stock market [4]. - The prevailing narrative suggests that a recession may be necessary for the U.S. economy, contrasting with the previous administration's approach [5][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Position - Market expectations are that the Federal Reserve will be the first to "give in" by lowering interest rates to support the economy, despite rising front-end rates during stock sell-offs [2][7]. - Analysts warn that the Fed's primary focus remains on controlling inflation, and any rate cuts may send misleading signals if economic growth slows but remains positive [2][11]. - The interaction between the Fed and the government is characterized as a "repeated game," where credibility is crucial, and the Fed may hesitate to lower rates if inflation remains above target [11]. Group 3: Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs has downgraded its economic outlook for the U.S., citing unfavorable trade policy assumptions and the government's management of expectations regarding potential recession [10]. - The current economic situation is described as a "manufactured recession," with concerns about the timing of necessary economic adjustments and the potential for a wealth effect [13]. - The risks of a U.S. recession could have global implications, similar to the 2008 financial crisis, affecting markets worldwide [14].