Report Information - Report Title: Sugar Market Weekly Report - External Disturbances, Short - term Volatility Intensifies [2] - Report Date: July 4, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Xin [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4%. Internationally, the approaching monsoon season improved the outlook of major Asian sugar - producing countries, and the expectation of loose supply suppressed the raw sugar price. Domestically, the opening of the import window increased import pressure, while the summer consumption peak provided some support. Overall, the domestic sugar price was stronger than the external market due to rising demand. In the later period, both supply and demand will be strong, and price volatility will intensify. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract. Future factors to focus on include consumption and the export of Brazilian and Indian sugar [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: The price of Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract decreased by about 0.4% this week. Internationally, the monsoon season improved the supply outlook in Asia, and Brazilian shipping data showed an increase in waiting ships and sugar quantity. Domestically, import pressure increased, but summer consumption provided support. The domestic market was stronger than the external market, and later, price volatility will intensify [5] - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily wait and see for the Zhengzhou Sugar 2509 contract [5] - **Future Focus**: Consumption situation, Brazilian and Indian sugar exports [5] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: The price of ICE US Sugar 10 - month contract decreased by about 1.92% this week. As of July 2, 2025, the non - commercial net position of ICE raw sugar was unchanged from the previous period, and the futures settlement price of NYBOT No. 11 sugar decreased by 0.76%. The international raw sugar spot price decreased by 1.38% as of June 27, 2025. The top 20 net position of Zhengzhou sugar futures was - 29,497 lots, and the Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts were 23,424 [12][15][21] - **Spot Market**: As of July 4, the sugar price in Liuzhou, Guangxi was 6,150 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,880 yuan/ton. As of July 2, 2025, the estimated in - quota import price of Brazilian sugar was 4,318 yuan/ton (down 0.55% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota was 5,480 yuan/ton (down 0.56% week - on - week). The in - quota profit of importing Brazilian sugar was 1,617 yuan/ton (up 0.87% week - on - week), and the out - of - quota profit was 455 yuan/ton (up 4.84% week - on - week). Similar data were provided for Thai sugar [25][28][34] 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side**: By the end of May 2025, the 2024/25 sugar - making season had ended, with a national sugar production of 1.11621 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 119,890 tons (12.03% increase). As of May 30, 2025, the industrial inventory was 304,830 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32,210 tons. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a significant increase compared to April and a 1954.9% surge year - on - year, but the cumulative import from January to May was 630,000 tons, a 50.1% decrease year - on - year [38][42][46] - **Demand Side**: The cumulative national sugar sales were 811,380 tons, a year - on - year increase of 152,100 tons (23.07% increase), and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69%, 6.52 percentage points faster year - on - year. From January to May 2025, the cumulative output of refined sugar was 906,600 tons (a 4.9% year - on - year increase), and the cumulative output of soft drinks was 7.46 billion tons (a 25.19% year - on - year increase) [50][55] 3.4 Option and Stock - related Market - **Option Market**: Information about the implied volatility of the at - the - money option of sugar this week was presented, but specific data was not fully described [56] - **Stock Market**: Information about the price - earnings ratio of Nanning Sugar Industry was presented, but specific data was not fully described [60]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The sharp decline in the raw sugar price has dragged down the domestic white sugar price, causing it to open lower and decline. However, the expected increase in demand limits the decline. In the later stage, both supply and demand will be strong, leading to more volatile prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for sugar is 5,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 302,138 lots, a decrease of 7,673 lots. The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 23,575, a decrease of 174. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -21,701 lots, an increase of 9,455 lots. The estimated effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,342 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,511 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan. The estimated import processing price of Thai sugar within the quota is 4,392 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan. The estimated import price of Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5,576 yuan/ton. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,895 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Nanning is 6,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The spot price in Liuzhou is 6,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar - cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares. The national sugar production cumulative value is 304.83 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 111.621 million tons. The national cumulative sugar sales volume is 81.138 million tons, a decrease of 81,430 tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly sugar import volume is 350,000 tons, an increase of 220,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 2.2566 million tons, an increase of 704,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,603 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota is 1,553 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72 yuan. The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 434 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan. The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 86 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 3%, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 6.41%, a decrease of 1.98 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar is 6.42%, a decrease of 1.97 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 7.44%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points. The 60 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.71%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of June 30, a sugar factory in Tiandong has cleared its inventory of "Dongxing" brand sugar, becoming the 6th sugar factory in South China, Guangxi to clear its inventory in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 4 compared to the same period last year. Currently, only 3 sugar factories have not cleared their inventory. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the prospects of major sugar - producing countries in Asia have improved, and the expectation of loose supply has suppressed the decline of raw sugar prices [2].

长江期货白糖周报 关税加征扰动市场，糖价高位震荡 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-4-7 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 01 白糖周度观点 1 整体观点：国际糖市，国际糖市，ICE期价涨跌互现，目前北半球主产区产量已成定局，受巴西库 存偏低，3月底印度2024/25榨季累计产糖同比减少影响，叠加巴西中南部新榨季生产或推迟，短 期贸易流偏紧，对国际糖价的支撑仍存，后市市场关注重心逐渐转向南半球，巴西主产区降雨缓 解了部分市场供给担忧，后期重点关注巴西天气状况及开榨进度情况。近期美国关税加征引发的 担忧影响，市场波动加剧，情绪较为谨慎。国内方面，国内食糖和糖浆、白砂糖预混粉进口同比 回落数据影响，对糖价形成一定支撑，叠加国产糖即将进入纯销期，产区3月产销数据陆续公布， 销糖进度或同比加快，工业库存同比有所下降，产区现货报价相对坚挺，预计短期国内糖价将 ...

根据美国商品期货交易委员会（CFTC）补充报告的数据，截至3月18日当周投机者将原糖净空头持 仓减少了27817手，至65120手。 机构观点 新世纪期货： 供应相对宽松 白糖市场开始面临压力 消息面 据不完全统计，截至3月21日广西已有70家糖厂已收榨，目前仅有4家糖厂未收榨，本榨季开榨糖厂 总数的95%已经收榨，榨季生产进入尾声。 3月24日，我国以进口巴西原糖为原料生产的白糖其销售利润约为1357元/吨（关税配额内，15%关 税）或-132元/吨（关税配额外，50%关税）；我国以进口泰国原糖为原料生产的白糖其销售利润约1438 元/吨（关税配额内，15%关税）或-27元/吨（关税配额外，50%关税）。 华联期货： 国内增产的压力有所消化，国产糖销量较好，糖浆进口限制政策也利多郑糖。后期市场的交易重心 转向消费与进口情况。不过中长期看国际市场的食糖供应依然较为充足，美糖上方仍面临一定压力，国 内供应也较为充足，今天冲高回落，说明市场开始面临压力。操作上建议多单注意减仓或止盈，郑糖 2505参考支撑位5950元/吨。 ICE糖连续上攻20美分整数位未果，美元指数企稳转强也给商品带来一定压力；郑糖也止住了连创 ...