Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Given the unclear outcome of the US - Iran negotiation, lack of clear OPEC production increase data, and the support from shale oil, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiation is successful. Short - term, it's better to stay on the sidelines for crude oil [1]. - For methanol, considering the ample supply and weak macro - environment, there may be a further decline. One - sided trading can focus on short positions on rallies, and for cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, the price is expected to have no obvious trend. One - sided trading is recommended to stay on the sidelines [5]. - For rubber, it shows a strong - side oscillation. Short - term long or neutral thinking is recommended, with short - term operations and quick in - and - out. Also, pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9][11]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short - term, due to the expectation of strong supply and weak demand, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, but beware of the rebound if the weak export expectation is not realized [13]. - For polyethylene, the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven to supply - driven decline. With no new capacity planned in June, the price may oscillate [15]. - For polypropylene, with planned capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the maintenance season is ending, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, and it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there is a risk of valuation correction as the maintenance season on the supply side is ending [21]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - WTI主力原油期货收涨0.51美元，涨幅0.81%，报63.25美元；布伦特主力原油期货收涨0.38美元，涨幅0.59%，报65.29美元；INE主力原油期货收跌4.50元，跌幅0.96%，报463.7元 [6]. - 新加坡油品周度数据显示，汽油库存累库0.08百万桶至13.10百万桶，环比累库0.62%；柴油库存去库0.69百万桶至9.24百万桶，环比去库6.91%；燃料油库存累库0.24百万桶至22.58百万桶，环比累库1.09%；总成品油去库0.36百万桶至44.92百万桶，环比去库0.80% [6]. Methanol - 6月5日09合约跌11元/吨，报2259元/吨，现货涨8元/吨，基差+51 [3]. - 供应端开工见底回升至同期高位，企业利润高位回落，预计短期供应维持高位；需求端港口MTO装置开工回到高位，传统需求开工回升，需求小幅好转，港口累库慢价格偏强，内地供增需弱价格走低，港口与内地价差扩大 [3]. Urea - 6月5日09合约跌52元/吨，报1722元/吨，现货跌10元/吨，基差+111 [5]. - 供应维持高位，日产持续走高；需求端复合肥夏季肥结束，企业开工回落，对尿素需求减少，企业预收订单回落，库存累至同期高位，盘面价格下跌 [5]. Rubber - NR和RU偏强震荡 [9]. - 多头认为东南亚尤其是泰国的天气、橡胶林现状和政策可能助于减产；空头认为宏观预期转差，需求平淡处于季节性淡季，高价会刺激新增供应，减产幅度可能不及预期 [10]. - 截至6月5日，山东轮胎企业全钢胎开工负荷为63.45%，较上周走低1.33个百分点，较去年同期走高2.56个百分点；半钢胎企业开工负荷为73.49%，较上周走低4.39个百分点，较去年同期走低6.75个百分点，海外新接订单不佳 [11]. - 截至6月1日，中国天然橡胶社会库存128万吨，环比下降2.8万吨，降幅2.1%；深色胶社会总库存为76.3万吨，环比下降3.4%；浅色胶社会总库存为51.7万吨，环比降0.1% [11]. PVC - PVC09合约下跌87元，报4747元，常州SG - 5现货价4680元/吨，基差 - 67元/吨，9 - 1价差 - 67元/吨 [13]. - 成本端持稳，本周整体开工率78.2%，环比上升2%；需求端下游开工46.2%，环比下降0.8%；厂内库存38.5万吨，社会库存59.8万吨，均有下降 [13]. - 企业利润压力大，检修季接近尾声，后续产量预期回升，有装置投产预期；下游开工疲弱转淡季，出口签单转弱，成本端电石下跌，估值支撑减弱，短期预计偏弱震荡 [13]. Polyolefins Polyethylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格无变动，PE估值向上空间有限 [15]. - 二季度供应端新增产能大，供应承压；上中游库存去库对价格支撑有限，季节性淡季需求端农膜订单递减，开工率震荡下行，6月无新增产能投产计划，价格或维持震荡 [15]. - 主力合约收盘价7034元/吨，下跌15元/吨，现货7125元/吨无变动，基差91元/吨，走强15元/吨；上游开工76.52%，环比下降1.10%；生产企业库存51.77万吨，环比累库3.57万吨，贸易商库存5.83万吨，环比累库0.01万吨；下游平均开工率39.2%，环比下降0.10%；LL9 - 1价差29元/吨，环比缩小2元/吨 [15]. Polypropylene - 期货价格下跌，加拿大阿尔伯塔大火弥补OPEC + 7月增产41.1万桶计划量，现货价格上涨但跌幅小于PE [16]. - 6月供应端有220万吨计划产能投放，需求端下游开工率随塑编订单见顶后或季节性震荡下行，预计6月价格偏空 [16]. - 主力合约收盘价6911元/吨，下跌37元/吨，现货7120元/吨，上涨5元/吨，基差209元/吨，走强42元/吨；上游开工78.31%，环比上涨0.65%；生产企业库存60.51万吨，环比累库5.18万吨，贸易商库存14.76万吨，环比累库1.15万吨，港口库存6.64万吨，环比累库0.15万吨；下游平均开工率50.29%，环比下降0.43%；LL - PP价差123元/吨，环比扩大22元/吨 [16]. Polyester PX - PX09合约下跌38元，报6540元，PX CFR下跌5美元，报820美元，按人民币中间价折算基差252元，9 - 1价差182元 [18]. - 中国负荷82.1%，环比上升4.1%；亚洲负荷72%，环比上升2.6%；辽阳石化、中海油惠州等装置重启或提负荷，海外部分装置有重启和检修 [18]. - 5月韩国PX出口中国30.3万吨，同比下降8.7万吨；4月底库存451万吨，月环比下降17万吨；PXN为263美元，石脑油裂差87美元 [18]. - 检修季结束，6月去库放缓，三季度因PTA新装置投产重新进入去库周期，终端纺服出口预期偏强，聚酯库存低，原料端负反馈压力小，短期估值升至中性偏高水平，预计震荡 [18]. PTA - PTA09合约下跌26元，报4644元，华东现货下跌20元/吨，报4845元，基差216元，9 - 1价差138元 [19]. - PTA负荷79.7%，环比上升3.3%，部分装置重启或推后；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [19]. - 5月30日社会库存（除信用仓单）220.8万吨，环比去库9.4万吨；现货加工费上涨8元，至389元，盘面加工费下跌1元，至354元 [19]. - 供给端处于检修季，需求端聚酯化纤库存压力小，预期持续去库，加工费有支撑，绝对价格预计震荡 [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - EG09合约下跌9元，报4283元，华东现货上涨8元，报4425元，基差130元，9 - 1价差31元 [21]. - 供给端负荷60%，环比上升0.2%，部分装置有检修和重启；海外部分装置重启；下游负荷91.3%，环比下降0.4%，部分装置有减产或重启；终端加弹负荷下降2%至80%，织机负荷下降1%至68% [21]. - 进口到港预报10.8万吨，华东出港6月4日0.77万吨，出库下降，港口库存62.1万吨，去库6.6万吨；石脑油制利润为 - 362元，国内乙烯制利润 - 455元，煤制利润1177元；成本端乙烯持平，榆林坑口烟煤末价格上涨 [21]. - 产业处于去库阶段，终端出口偏强，聚酯化纤库存压力小，但估值修复大，供给端检修季结束，有估值回调风险 [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, even if the negotiations are successful, it's not suitable to chase short positions due to the current risk - return ratio. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term [2]. - For methanol, with the weakening of inland prices, the stabilization of coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, the domestic supply will return to a high level, and imports in June will increase significantly. The overall supply - demand pattern is expected to be weak, and it's recommended to consider short positions on rallies. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. - For urea, the domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high in the short term. Demand is lukewarm. It's recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there's no obvious price trend and the basis is at a low level [6]. - For rubber, the sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU. It's recommended to adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [10][12]. - For PVC, although the inventory decline is fast in the short term, the supply - demand situation is expected to be supply - strong and demand - weak. The mid - term fundamentals are weak [13]. - For polyethylene, the price may fluctuate in June as the short - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to supply - driven decline, and there are no new capacity - production plans in June [15]. - For polypropylene, with the concentrated capacity release in June and the approaching of the seasonal off - season, the price is expected to be bearish in June [16]. - For PX, the de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude - oil futures closed down $0.60, a 0.95% decline, at $62.74; Brent main crude - oil futures closed down $0.70, a 1.07% decline, at $64.91; INE main crude - oil futures closed up 5.70 yuan, a 1.23% increase, at 468.2 yuan [1]. - **Data**: US commercial crude - oil inventory decreased by 4.30 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; SPR increased by 0.51 million barrels to 401.82 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventory increased by 5.22 million barrels to 228.30 million barrels, a 2.34% increase; diesel inventory increased by 4.23 million barrels to 107.64 million barrels, a 4.09% increase; fuel - oil inventory decreased by 0.23 million barrels to 23.27 million barrels, a 0.98% decline; aviation - kerosene inventory increased by 0.94 million barrels to 43.65 million barrels, a 2.20% increase [1]. Methanol - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Inland prices are weakening, coal is stabilizing, and enterprise profits have declined significantly. With the return of previously shut - down plants, domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise. The overall supply - demand pattern is weak [4]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Consider short positions on rallies for single - side trading. For cross - variety trading, pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread [4]. Urea - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Domestic production is at a record high and expected to remain high. The compound - fertilizer summer - fertilizer season is ending, and the agricultural demand will increase gradually. Exports are expected to improve slightly after the policy implementation [6]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Wait and see for single - side trading [6]. Rubber - **Market Sentiment**: The sharp rebound of coking coal and coke has boosted the bullish sentiment of NR and RU [10]. - **Supply - Demand Views**: Bulls think that the weather, rubber - forest situation, and policies in Southeast Asia, especially Thailand, may lead to rubber production cuts. Bears believe that the macro - economic outlook is deteriorating, demand is flat, it's the seasonal off - season, and high rubber prices may stimulate new supply [11]. - **Data**: As of May 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 64.78%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week and up 3.91 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 77.88%, up 0.03 percentage points from last week and down 2.40 percentage points from the same period last year. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural - rubber social inventory was 1.342 million tons, a 0.96% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 818,000 tons, a 1.5% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 524,000 tons, a 0.1% decline [12]. - **Trading Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term long - trading strategy and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and shorting on RU2509 [12]. PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC09 contract rose 89 yuan to 4,834 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,680 (+10) yuan/ton, the basis was - 154 (- 79) yuan/ton, and the 9 - 1 spread was - 37 (- 13) yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The cost is stable, the overall operating rate is 78.2%, up 2% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate is 46.2%, down 0.8% week - on - week. Factory inventory is 385,000 tons (- 2,000), and social inventory is 598,000 tons (- 26,000). The enterprise profit is under pressure, and the supply is expected to increase as the maintenance season ends [13]. Polyethylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the valuation's upward space is limited. The supply in the second quarter is under pressure, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [15]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 7,049 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,125 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 79.33%, up 1.92% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 482,000 tons, down 16,400 tons week - on - week, and the trader inventory was 58,200 tons, up 1,100 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 39.3%, down 0.09% week - on - week [15]. Polypropylene - **Price Analysis**: The futures price rose. The Canadian Alberta wildfires offset the OPEC + 411,000 - barrel - per - day production - increase plan in July. The spot price remained unchanged, and the decline was smaller than that of PE. There are 2.2 million tons of planned capacity to be put into production in June, and the demand is in the seasonal off - season [16]. - **Market Quotes**: The main - contract closing price was 6,948 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7,115 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 167 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: The upstream operating rate was 75.74%, down 0.01% week - on - week. The production - enterprise inventory was 553,300 tons, down 39,900 tons week - on - week, the trader inventory was 136,100 tons, down 16,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory was 64,900 tons, down 5,600 tons week - on - week. The downstream average operating rate was 50.29%, down 0.43% week - on - week [16]. PX - **Market Quotes**: The PX09 contract rose 54 yuan to 6,578 yuan, and PX CFR rose 1 dollar to 825 dollars. The basis was 258 yuan (- 44), and the 9 - 1 spread was 180 yuan (- 4) [18]. - **Operating Rate**: China's PX operating rate was 82.1%, up 4.1% week - on - week; Asia's was 72%, up 2.6% week - on - week [18]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: The de - stocking is expected to slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in the third quarter due to the new PTA plant commissioning. It's expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [18]. PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA09 contract rose 42 yuan to 4,670 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 50 yuan/ton to 4,865 yuan. The basis was 197 yuan (- 10), and the 9 - 1 spread was 138 yuan (+2) [19]. - **Operating Rate**: The PTA operating rate was 76.4%, down 0.7% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week [19]. - **Inventory and Outlook**: It will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to fluctuate at the current valuation level [19][20]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG09 contract fell 14 yuan to 4,292 yuan, and the East - China spot price fell 62 yuan to 4,417 yuan. The basis was 128 (- 19), and the 9 - 1 spread was 30 yuan (- 23) [21]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply - side operating rate was 59.8%, up 0.1% week - on - week. The downstream operating rate was 91.7%, down 2.2% week - on - week. The port inventory was 621,000 tons, down 66,000 tons [21]. - **Outlook**: The industry is in the de - stocking stage, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season is coming to an end [21].

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, considering the unclear results of the US - Iran negotiations, the lack of clear OPEC production - increase data, and the shale - oil bottom - support effect, it's not advisable to chase short positions even if the negotiations are successful. Short - term observation is recommended [1]. - For methanol, with weakening inland prices, stable coal, and the return of previously shut - down plants, supply pressure is high. Although downstream profits are improving, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and short - selling on rallies is recommended. For cross - variety trading, consider going long on the 09 - contract PP - 3MA spread on dips [3]. - For urea, with high supply and lukewarm demand, there's no clear price trend. It's recommended to observe the market due to the low basis [5]. - For rubber, the market is weak. A neutral approach with short - term trading is advised, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [8][9]. - For PVC, although inventory is declining rapidly, the supply - strong and demand - weak situation is expected to continue, leading to a weak - oscillation trend. However, beware of rebounds if the weak export expectation doesn't materialize [10]. - For polyethylene, the price may oscillate. The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is entering a seasonal off - peak [13][14]. - For polypropylene, it's expected to be bearish in June. The supply side has planned capacity releases, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. - For PX, the de - stocking may slow down in June, but it will re - enter the de - stocking cycle in Q3. It's expected to oscillate at the current valuation level [17]. - For PTA, it will continue to de - stock, and the processing fee is supported. The absolute price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [18][19]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20]. Summaries by Industry Crude Oil - **Price**: WTI rose $0.30 (0.48%) to $63.34; Brent rose $0.49 (0.75%) to $65.61; INE rose 18.40 yuan (4.14%) to 462.5 yuan [1]. - **Inventory**: At the Fujairah port, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and total refined oil inventories decreased by 4.69%, 36.81%, 18.14%, and 14.88% respectively [1]. Methanol - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract rose 17 yuan/ton to 2225 yuan/ton, and the spot price rose 28 yuan/ton with a basis of +50 [3]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic supply will increase, and imports in June will rise significantly. The port MTO plant restarted, while traditional demand weakened [3]. Urea - **Price**: On June 3, the 09 - contract fell 12 yuan/ton to 1761 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat with a basis of +79 [5]. - **Supply - demand**: Domestic production reached a record high, and short - term supply will remain high. Compound fertilizer production is ending, and agricultural demand will increase. Exports may improve slightly [5]. Rubber - **Price**: NR and RU continued to decline [7]. - **Supply - demand**: Bulls believe factors in Southeast Asia may lead to production cuts, while bears think macro expectations are poor, demand is flat, and new supply may increase [8]. - **Operation**: A neutral approach with short - term trading is recommended, and pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [9]. PVC - **Price**: The PVC09 contract fell 19 yuan to 4745 yuan, and the spot price was 4670 yuan/ton with a basis of - 75 [10]. - **Supply - demand**: The overall start - up rate increased, while downstream demand decreased. Inventories decreased, but the supply - strong and demand - weak situation persists [10]. Polyethylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 3 yuan/ton [12][13][14]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side may face pressure from new capacity in Q2, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [14]. Polypropylene - **Price**: Futures prices rose, and the spot price was unchanged. The basis weakened by 9 yuan/ton [15]. - **Supply - demand**: There are planned capacity releases in June, and the demand side is in a seasonal off - peak [15]. PX - **Price**: The PX09 contract fell 94 yuan to 6524 yuan, and the CFR price fell 18 dollars to 824 dollars [17]. - **Supply - demand**: The maintenance season is ending. De - stocking may slow down in June but will resume in Q3 due to new PTA plant startups [17]. PTA - **Price**: The PTA09 contract fell 72 yuan to 4628 yuan, and the spot price fell 30 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply - demand**: The supply side is in the maintenance season, and the demand side has low inventory and is expected to continue de - stocking [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Price**: The EG09 contract fell 43 yuan to 4306 yuan, and the spot price fell 16 yuan [20]. - **Supply - demand**: The industry is in the de - stocking phase, but there's a risk of valuation correction as the supply - side maintenance season ends [20].

Energy - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has revised its August Murban crude oil export forecast down from 1.77 million barrels per day to 1.705 million barrels per day [2] - The U.S. has proposed allowing Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment activities, while Iranian officials describe the U.S. nuclear agreement proposal as "incoherent and disconnected" [2] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating India's Adani Group for allegedly importing Iranian liquefied petroleum gas, which the group denies [3] Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton [3] - Gold prices are nearing historical highs, with experts suggesting a significant possibility of surpassing $3,500 per ounce [3] Trade and Agriculture - Vietnamese companies are set to sign a memorandum of understanding to purchase $2 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products [3] - EU trade officials are scheduled to meet, with the EU reiterating warnings regarding retaliatory tariffs [3] - The India-EU free trade agreement is progressing, with nearly half of the topics reaching consensus, and an agreement expected within the year [3]

Report Information - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: May 26, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. OPEC+ is discussing a continued large - scale increase in supply in July, but no final decision has been made. The fifth round of US - Iran negotiations ended without a conclusive result. Fundamentally, global oil product inventories decreased this week, while US commercial crude oil inventories increased seasonally with an absolute inventory lower than the historical average, and gasoline and diesel inventories increased slightly. In the short term, refinery profits are in high - level fluctuations, refinery operations are rising as expected, leading indicators of US production are falling, the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate, and the US continues to impose sanctions on Iran and Russia, so oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly. In the medium - to - long term, crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policy and potential supply - demand surplus [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Data - **Price Changes from May 19 - 23, 2025**: WTI crude oil price increased by $0.33, BRENT by $0.34, and DUBAI by $0.01. SC decreased by $0.90, and OMAN increased by $0.12. Japanese naphtha - BRT decreased by $5.50, and Singapore 380CST fuel oil's premium to BRT increased by $1.68 [3] 3.2 Daily News - **EU Sanctions on Russia**: The EU is considering removing about 20 banks from SWIFT, lowering the G7 oil price cap on Russia to about $45 from the current $60, and implementing new restrictions on Russia's "shadow fleet" vessels. Germany's foreign minister said the EU is discussing a new round of sanctions on Russia, especially in the energy sector [3][4] - **HSBC's Forecast**: HSBC expects OPEC+ to announce another accelerated increase in supply in July, similar to May and June, and to suspend production increases in Q1 2026 [4] 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - **US EIA Data (Week ending May 16)**: US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 843,000 barrels to 400.5 million barrels (0.21% increase). Commercial crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) increased by 1.328 million barrels to 443 million barrels (0.3% increase). Domestic crude oil production increased by 500,000 barrels per day to 13.392 million barrels per day. Crude oil exports increased by 1.38 million barrels per day to 3.507 million barrels per day. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.625 million barrels per day, a 2.84% decrease from the same period last year [4] - **China's Situation**: This week, the operating rate of major refineries in China increased, while that of Shandong local refineries decreased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China increased, with major refineries seeing an increase in both gasoline and diesel production and local refineries seeing a decrease. The sales - to - production ratio of local refineries for both gasoline and diesel increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, while that of local refineries decreased [5]

百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，市场对美联储降息的押注慢慢进入白热化，要么美联储为通胀放缓而进行宽松，要么美联储为经济衰 退而超级宽松，这意味着黄金价格仍然存在走高的可能。 技术面：日线上，上一个交易日行情再度走高且收阳线，显示行情比较强势。指标上看，行情处于20日均线上运行，多头比较强势。日内关注上 方3374美元一线压力，下方关注3320美元一线支撑。 黄金方面： 此前在很长的一段时间里美联储的货币政策一直不太明朗，美联储官员们希望财政和贸易政策以及经济情况能够清晰地反映在数据上再开启行 动。在过去的一个月里美联储这种谨慎的态度，导致市场纷纷撤销对美联储6月份降息的押注，当前市场预期美联储降息将延至7月份议息会议。 黄金小时图 原油方面： 伊朗的多名议员表示，根据伊朗最高领袖指示，伊朗从未谋求核武器，但是拥有铀浓缩能力是伊朗的红线以及不可剥夺的权利。美国的要求远超 于此，这意味着美伊谈判想要达成协议并不容易。 更为重要的是以色列此前表示倘若美伊没有达成协议，那么以色列极有可能对伊朗的核设施采取行动。美伊关系仍然比较紧张将在近期为油价提 供支撑。 百利好特约智昇研究资深分析师辰宇放眼整个原油市场，原油 ...

1. 胡塞武装称使用高超音速导弹打击以色列本-古里安机场。 2. 以军称拦截从也门境内发射的导弹。 3. 加沙媒体办公室：以军已控制77%加沙土地。 4. 以色列媒体：以军计划两个月内控制加沙75%地区。 5. 伊朗议员：铀浓缩能力是伊方"红线"和"不可剥夺的权利"。 6. 伊朗外长：美伊下一轮谈判时间地点尚未确定。 7. 美国总统特朗普：与伊朗谈判取得了一些实质性进展。 金十数据整理：中东局势跟踪（5月26日） ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Short - term, crude oil has little pressure; long - term, focus on the progress of US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine negotiations and OPEC+ production increase. Short - term trading is recommended [1] - Gold is bullish in the short - term and may oscillate at high levels in the medium - term. Pay attention to the upcoming US Treasury bond redemption issues [1] - In the medium - and long - term, as new PTA production capacity is released, the pressure of over - capacity becomes apparent, and the upward price space may be limited [3] - Rubber prices are difficult to fall significantly and tend to oscillate. Short - term trading is recommended [4] - The bond market has certain support, and a medium - term slightly bullish and oscillating view is appropriate [5] - Silver is bearish due to the US economic downturn, but it follows the fluctuation of gold. A medium - term wide - range and slightly bullish oscillating view is appropriate [5] - The steel market is intertwined with long and short factors, and steel prices may continue to oscillate weakly and narrowly [6] - Iron ore prices maintain an oscillating trend under the situation of strong reality and weak expectation. Pay attention to the change of hot metal [8] - The coking coal market is expected to continue the weak trend in the short - term [8] - The pig price is expected to continue the weak trend, with limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see or look for long - position opportunities [9] - Palm oil prices oscillate in the short - term. High - selling and low - buying operations are maintained [10] - Methanol 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [11] - Soda ash 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long - position on pullbacks [13] - Caustic soda 09 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term short - position on rebounds [13] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Crude Oil - EIA data shows that crude oil and refined oil inventories have increased. The fifth round of Iran - US negotiations will be held on May 23. Uranium enrichment in Iran will continue regardless of the agreement [1] Gold - The US has experienced a "triple kill" in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange. The auction of 20 - year US Treasury bonds was weaker than expected, and the dollar index has fallen, causing gold to rise [1] PTA - PX CFR is at $826/ton, PX - N is $257/ton. The average polyester sales rate is 29.6%. There is an expectation of restarting previous PTA maintenance devices, and the supply is slightly increasing [3] Rubber - Thai raw material prices are given. As of May 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory has decreased. Rubber raw materials are strong while finished products are weak [4] Treasury Bonds - Eight departments have jointly issued measures to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and major banks have lowered deposit interest rates, which support the bond market [5] Silver - Target's Q1 sales declined, and it expects low - single - digit sales decline in fiscal year 2025. The US economic downturn and the Treasury bond issue increase market pessimism [5] Rebar - On May 21, domestic steel market oscillated. The average price of 20mm third - grade seismic rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton. The macro - environment is moderately positive, but high temperature and heavy rain affect steel sales [6] Iron Ore - From May 12 - 18, the total inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil increased by 696,000 tons. The demand for iron ore has declined from the high level, while the supply remains high [8] Coking Coal - The opening rate of 110 coal washing plants decreased by 0.34%. Coal mine inventories have increased, and downstream steel mills have initiated the first round of coke price cuts [8] Pig - As of May 21, the national average ex - factory price of ternary pigs decreased by 0.02 yuan/kg. The market transaction was average, and the terminal's ability to accept high prices was limited [9] Palm Oil - From May 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 3.72%. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax, and the domestic spot basis is stable [10] Methanol - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is stable. The opening rate decreased by 3.7%. Port inventory increased by 0.65 tons, and enterprise orders to be delivered decreased by 3.84 tons [11] Soda Ash - The mainstream price of heavy soda ash is stable. The opening rate is 80.06%. Factory inventory increased by 0.63%. The opening rate of float glass decreased by 0.22%, and its inventory increased by 0.77% [11][13] Caustic Soda - The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is stable. The opening rate decreased by 1.3%. Enterprise inventory increased by 7.08%. The opening rate of downstream industries decreased [13]

Core Viewpoint - Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities swiftly if US-Iran negotiations collapse [1] Group 1: Israel's Military Preparations - Israeli intelligence has shifted from believing a nuclear deal is imminent to anticipating a potential breakdown of negotiations [1] - The Israeli military perceives that the operational window for a successful strike may soon close, necessitating prompt action if talks fail [1] - Israeli Defense Forces have been conducting exercises and other preparations in anticipation of a possible attack on Iran [1]

伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊：美国应避免在谈判中说废话；美国要求伊朗停止铀浓缩是无礼的。 ...