【环球时报综合报道】26日，伊朗与美国第三轮间接谈判在瑞士日内瓦举行。据法新社报道，国际原子能机构总干事格罗西也加入了此次谈 判。"这将是决定性回合。"美国《纽约时报》引述分析人士的话称，"他们将在周四摊牌。"国际社会都在屏息等待，外界认为，这轮谈判结果 或决定美伊局势接下来的走向：和平还是战争？伊朗外长阿拉格齐表示，谈判成功与否取决于"对方是否持认真严肃态度，以及能否避免自相 矛盾的行为与立场"。谈判前夕，美国依旧通过实施制裁、向伊朗喊话等方式施压，向以色列增派F-22"猛禽"隐形战斗机等军事动作也持续不 断。据卡塔尔半岛电视台报道，在紧张局势下，包括澳大利亚、印度、韩国在内的越来越多国家敦促本国公民尽快离开伊朗。据伊通社报 道，伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫25日表示，对伊朗而言，体面的外交斡旋和令敌人悔恨的反击都不失为一种选择，伊朗愿意在谈判桌上解 决问题，但如果白宫再次在谈判过程中发起攻击，那么美国必将尝到来自伊朗民族及该国武装力量的铁拳。 伊朗提出怎样的方案？ 在阿曼的斡旋下，阿拉格齐率领的伊朗代表团26日与美国总统特朗普的特使威特科夫、女婿库什纳举行间接会谈。据半岛电视台报道，与美 方会谈后，阿曼外交 ...

"为什么在这种压力下，在那里有大量的海上力量和海军力量（的情况下），为什么他们没有过来找我们说，'我们宣布 我们不想要武器，所以这就是我们准备要做的'？然而，让他们到达这一步有点难。" 近期，美国不断加码对伊朗军事威胁，地区紧张局势持续。据路透社20日报道，来自伊朗、美国官员以及一些海湾国 家和欧洲国家外交官的消息显示，随着美伊谈判陷入僵局，两国军事冲突风险正在加大。 19日上午，特朗普在所谓"和平委员会"首次会议上表示，美伊会否达成协议，"接下来十天左右"就会知道结果。伊朗必 须与美国达成"有意义的协议"，否则"将会发生不好的事"。当天晚些时候，特朗普又对媒体称，伊朗应在10天到15天内同美 国达成协议。另一方面，阿拉格齐20日在接受美国媒体采访时说，伊朗将在2至3天内完成核协议草案的起草工作，并在获 得伊朗领导人的最终批准后交给美方。 据法新社等媒体报道，随着美国和伊朗之间谈判陷入僵局，美国总统特使威特科夫当地时间21日表示，美总统特朗普 感到"好奇"，质疑伊朗为何仍没有在美国压力下"屈服"。 当地时间21日，威特科夫接受采访。图源：美媒 报道称，威特科夫当天接受美国福克斯新闻网采访时发表了上述言论。"今 ...

另一方面，俄罗斯国防部18日称，俄"坚强"号护卫舰与伊朗海军在阿曼湾举行演练，旨在确保民用航运 安全。俄海军人员在伊朗阿巴斯港补充了燃料、淡水和食品储备。 资料图 据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）18日报道，知情人士透露，美军已做好"最早于本周末对伊朗发动军事 打击"的准备，但美国总统特朗普尚未最终决定。 报道称，白宫已获悉，在近几日美军向中东大幅增兵后，军方已做好周末发动攻击的准备。特朗普就军 事行动的利弊私下进行过辩论，并就最佳行动方案征询了顾问和盟友的意见——目前尚不清楚他是否会 在周末前做出决定。 目前，美国已在中东地区部署一个航空母舰打击群，第二个航母打击群正在部署。据悉，美军还在中东 地区部署了十多艘其他类型军舰、数百架战斗机和多套防空系统，并动用超过150架次的军用运输机将 武器装备和弹药运往中东。 据@CCTV国际时讯 消息，俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫在2月18日播出的采访中表示，美国对伊朗的任何新打 击都将产生严重后果，他呼吁各方保持克制，寻求解决方案以使伊朗能够推进和平核计划。 拉夫罗夫警告说，据俄方判断，美军此前对伊朗三处核设施的打击存在造成核事故的风险。他还表示， 国际原子能机构在袭击下未表明立 ...

Core Viewpoint - An Iranian senior military leader has stated that if the U.S. launches a military strike against Iran, Israel will be the primary target for retaliation, emphasizing Iran's preparedness to respond to any aggression despite not seeking war [1][3]. Group 1 - The Iranian military leader, Sardar Daghighi, publicly declared the potential for Israel to be targeted in the event of a U.S. attack on Iran [1]. - Daghighi highlighted that Iran is ready to confront any form of aggression, indicating a strong military stance [1].

Group 1: Core Insights - The situation in the Middle East remains volatile, with Iran's military actions against U.S. vessels indicating heightened tensions despite ongoing negotiations [1][4][5] - Iran's military has conducted aggressive actions, including attempts to board a U.S. flagged commercial ship and the downing of an Iranian drone near the USS Lincoln, suggesting internal divisions regarding negotiations [4][5][6] - The market has reacted to these developments, with significant increases in commodity prices, including silver rising over 4% and oil prices also experiencing upward movement [1][6] Group 2: Negotiation Developments - The U.S. government has agreed to hold negotiations with Iran in Oman, responding to Iran's request to change the location from Turkey [2] - Iranian officials have indicated a willingness to lower uranium enrichment levels but refuse to transfer enriched uranium abroad, emphasizing the peaceful nature of their nuclear program [2] - The U.S. remains committed to diplomatic solutions while retaining military options, indicating a complex balance between negotiation and potential conflict [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the deployment of U.S. military forces in the Middle East, particularly in response to tensions with Iran, highlighting the strategic importance of missile defense systems and the potential for conflict escalation. Group 1: Military Deployment and Strategy - The U.S. Navy's "Abraham Lincoln" carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, with advanced F-35 fighter jets also deployed to the region [1][10] - U.S. officials indicate that while military action against Iran is not imminent, the Pentagon is enhancing air defense systems to protect Israel and U.S. forces in the event of prolonged conflict [1][10] - The Pentagon is deploying additional THAAD and Patriot missile defense systems to military bases in Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [1][10] Group 2: Defense Systems and Capabilities - The THAAD system is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the atmosphere, while the Patriot system is focused on low-altitude threats [2][11] - The deployment of THAAD is a strong signal of U.S. preparations for potential conflict, as the military has limited operational THAAD systems available [7][16] - The U.S. military has already deployed eight destroyers capable of intercepting Iranian missiles and drones in the region [7][15] Group 3: Potential Conflict and Regional Reactions - Analysts warn that if the U.S. conducts large-scale air operations against Iran, it could provoke significant retaliation, including missile strikes on U.S. and Israeli military positions [5][14] - Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have expressed concerns about being used as bases for U.S. strikes against Iran, indicating a desire to avoid Iranian retaliation [15] - Iran is reportedly preparing for potential U.S. air operations, learning from past engagements to adjust its tactics [6][15] Group 4: Production and Supply Chain Issues - The Pentagon has signed agreements to increase the production capacity of THAAD interceptors from 96 to 400 annually, reflecting the urgent need for missile defense capabilities [8][17] - The rapid consumption of missile interceptors during recent conflicts has raised concerns about the sustainability of U.S. defense resources in the region [8][17] - Analysts highlight the limited resources available to the U.S. military, particularly in the air defense sector, which is critical for operational success [9][17]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, highlighting both parties' willingness to engage in dialogue, but also indicating that the U.S. demands are perceived as too high, leaving the outcome of negotiations uncertain and the threat of war still looming [1][12]. Group 1: Negotiation Signals - On January 31, U.S. President Trump stated that Iran is "negotiating" with the U.S. and that the U.S. aims to reach a "satisfactory" agreement to ensure Iran does not develop nuclear weapons [2][12]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian emphasized that resolving differences through diplomacy is Iran's priority, asserting that war does not serve the interests of Iran, the U.S., or the region [4][14]. - Regional countries, including Qatar and Egypt, are actively promoting diplomatic solutions to the U.S.-Iran tensions, indicating a broader interest in stabilizing the situation [4][14]. Group 2: Willingness to Negotiate - Experts believe that both the U.S. and Iran have a willingness to negotiate, although the U.S. is cautious about military action due to the potential for significant regional instability and economic repercussions [5][15]. - The U.S. military presence in the region is seen as a pressure tactic to encourage negotiations, rather than a prelude to war [8][18]. Group 3: Challenges in Negotiation - Significant differences exist between the U.S. and Iran regarding nuclear capabilities, with the U.S. demanding that Iran refrain from developing nuclear weapons, enriching uranium, and possessing enriched uranium [10][18]. - Iran maintains its right to peaceful nuclear energy and refuses to negotiate its missile and defense capabilities, which it considers non-negotiable [10][20]. Group 4: Ongoing Tensions - Despite signs of potential negotiations, the risk of military conflict remains high, with experts warning that the U.S. may resort to limited military action if negotiations fail [10][20]. - Trump's statement about a "large fleet" heading towards Iran and Iran's planned military exercises in the Strait of Hormuz further escalate tensions [10][20]. - Both nations are engaged in a strategic game of time, with the U.S. using military displays to intimidate Iran, while Iran seeks to enhance its military deterrence capabilities [21].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Central Command warns against Iran's "unsafe behavior" in the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the need for safe and professional military exercises to avoid unnecessary risks [1] Group 1: U.S. Military Response - The U.S. Central Command issued a statement indicating it will not tolerate unsafe actions by Iran, such as flying over U.S. warships or close encounters between Iranian fast boats and U.S. vessels [1] - The statement expresses hope that Iran will conduct its exercises in a safe and professional manner to prevent escalation and instability in the region [1] Group 2: Iranian Military Activities - Iranian Revolutionary Guard Navy announced a two-day live-fire exercise in the Strait of Hormuz scheduled for February 1-2 [1] - Reports from Iranian news outlets confirm the planned military drills, highlighting the ongoing military tensions in the region [1]

Core Viewpoint - Iran's Foreign Minister Zarif stated that the Iranian armed forces are "ready to pull the trigger" in response to any acts of aggression against Iran [1] Group 1: Military Readiness - Zarif emphasized that Iran's military is on high alert and prepared to respond forcefully to any aggression against its land, air, and sea [1] - The experience gained from the "12th War" has made Iran stronger, quicker, and more thorough in its responses [1] Group 2: Nuclear Agreement Stance - Iran welcomes a mutually beneficial and fair nuclear agreement based on equality, free from coercion, threats, and intimidation, ensuring its right to peaceful nuclear technology without seeking nuclear weapons [1] Group 3: Response to U.S. Military Threats - Iran's defense advisor, Ali Shamkhani, warned that any military action from the U.S. would lead to immediate and unprecedented responses targeting aggressors and their supporters [1] - Recent U.S. threats of military intervention have been highlighted, with President Trump mentioning a large fleet heading towards Iran to prompt negotiations [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. has communicated to Israel its military preparations regarding potential actions against Iran, with readiness expected to be completed within two weeks and a possible "window of opportunity" for action in the coming months [1][3] - U.S. President Trump mentioned that a fleet is heading towards Iran, although he did not provide further details [4] - The U.S. Navy's Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group has been deployed to the Middle East for air force readiness exercises, with additional F-15E fighter jets and missile defense systems sent to the region [4] Group 2 - Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy Commander stated that Iran is monitoring all maritime activities and controls the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing that any use of neighboring countries' territories against Iran will be considered hostile [6] - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical maritime passage connecting the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf, through which approximately one-third of global seaborne oil trade passes [8]