[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 2 月经济：价格篇 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2 月生意社 BPI 指数先抑后扬，月初受风险偏好回摆影响，有色金属价格延续下行；假期美伊地缘事件发酵， 叠加关税裁决引发美元走弱预期，以原油为主的外盘商品重回升势。截至 2 月 27 日，生意社 BPI 指数录得 947 点，相较 1 月 ...

证券日报网2月27日讯 ，飞荣达在接受调研者提问时表示，消费电子客户包括H公司、三星、荣耀、联 想、戴尔、惠普、宏碁、荣耀、小米、三星、Meta及其他重要客户等。公司从1997年开始和H公司合 作，属于公司重要的客户及合作伙伴，双方在手机、笔记本、服务器、通信设备、新能源汽车、储能等 领域均有合作。长期以来，公司积极配合客户需求开展相关产品的研发和技术储备，通过持续的产品迭 代更新，为客户提供更适配、更优质的产品，公司也有幸在2025年度再次被该客户评为金牌供应商。 （编辑 丛可心） ...

早上好，今天是大年初六，祝大家六六大顺启新程，财气满满一路升！ 先来关注下国际市场。 特朗普：原本10%的全球进口关税税率将升至15% 据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间2月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对 全球商品加征10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至15%。 特朗普在文中称，"基于对美国联邦最高法院20日就关税问题作出的裁决进行全面、详尽且完整的审查 ——该裁决荒谬、措辞拙劣且极端反美"，"将自即日起，把目前对全球各国征收的10%统一关税，提高 至完全被允许、并经过法律检验的15%水平"。 特朗普表示，在接下来的几个月内，美国政府将确定并公布新的、在法律上允许的关税措施。 有分析认为，与特朗普此前加征关税不同，根据上述条款，这项新关税最多只能持续150天，除非国会 批准延期。 "谈判陷入僵局"，外媒爆料：伊朗外长拒绝打开美方装有导弹提议的信函，并将其退回 环球网援引路透社报道，来自伊朗、美国官员以及一些海湾国家和欧洲国家外交官的消息显示，美国和 伊朗之间"谈判陷入僵局，两国军事冲突风险正在加大"。 报道援引一名熟悉谈判情况的消息人士的话称，当调解方阿曼向伊朗转交来自美方的装有与导弹相 ...

一票看四展 春节假期，浦东美术馆从一楼到四楼"满馆满展"开放，参观性价比"拉满"。去年12月，浦东美术 馆"图案的奇迹"卢浮宫大展、"非常毕加索"大展与"打开时间之门"少儿艺术展先后开放。今年2月12 日，中央展厅"卡罗莱娜·凯塞多：鲸鱼的致敬"艺术装置展揭开神秘面纱。 11时左右，记者来到馆内，展厅里已聚集不少观众，文创店、咖啡厅，一派热闹气象。 来自四川的史先生带着母亲来看展，他们10时许入馆，手持照相机，记录下每一件展品的细 节。"刚好来上海旅游，我猜除夕人会少一点，观展体验会更好。"他向记者展示拍摄的毕加索手绘盘 子，可爱中带点"抽象"。 春节前夕开放的"鲸鱼的致敬"艺术装置展，吸引许多观众在展厅的不同楼层、不同角落驻足。赵女 士在三楼观展点停留许久，拍摄下灯光从暗转亮的过程，"大片大片的蓝很震撼"。 除了一票看四展，浦东美术馆还在检票口安排了"彩蛋"。"刮刮卡请拿好！"检票处，工作人员为每 一位入馆的观众递上刮刮卡，这是新年入馆的特别福利。奖品包括明信片、新年袜子、兰蔻礼盒、酒店 兑换券等。记者从工作人员处了解到，2月15日20时30分许，有观众抽到了酒店兑换券大奖。 记者 阮佳雯 除夕上午，上海细 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growing popularity of "Han embroidery" as a unique and auspicious New Year gift, showcasing its cultural significance and market demand during the festive season [1][8]. Group 1: Market Demand and Sales - Han embroidery products have become popular among consumers, with a variety of items such as silk scarves, notebooks, and decorative pieces being well-received [6][8]. - On February 7, nearly 100 pieces of Han embroidery were sold out within a morning at a cultural event, indicating strong market interest [9]. - Sales figures for the company reached over 2 million yuan in 2025, doubling compared to five years prior, with a 30% increase in orders before the Spring Festival [10]. Group 2: Product Innovation and Cultural Relevance - The company has innovated its product line to appeal to younger consumers, introducing items like small decorative pieces and eco-friendly bags that reflect modern aesthetics [9][10]. - Han embroidery is characterized by its bold colors and meaningful designs, emphasizing auspicious themes, which resonate with the cultural values of consumers [9]. Group 3: Production and Craftsmanship - Each piece of Han embroidery is handcrafted, requiring significant time and skill, with a medium-sized decorative piece taking nearly a month to complete [9]. - The integration of blockchain technology for product authentication has been introduced, ensuring the originality and quality of the embroidery [10].

Core Insights - The storage chip market is experiencing a "super cycle" driven by AI, leading to significant price increases and improved profitability for storage companies, while terminal manufacturers face pressure to raise prices or reduce specifications [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The storage market is emerging from a low point, entering a new upward cycle, with 52 storage-related companies in A-shares reporting positive earnings forecasts for 2025, including 25 companies with expected profit growth [2] - Storage price increases are the primary factor behind the improved performance of these companies, with some reporting profit growth exceeding 100% [2] - Market research indicates that storage prices are expected to rise by 40% to 50% in Q1 2026 and by approximately 20% in Q2 2026, surpassing historical highs [3] Group 2: Competitive Positioning - Storage manufacturers are ramping up production to meet the surging demand from AI applications, with significant increases in memory requirements for AI servers compared to standard servers [4][5] - Companies are shifting focus from consumer markets to enterprise-level markets, where customers prioritize stability and reliability over price, allowing for better profit margins [5] - Companies like Jiangbolong are enhancing their capabilities through partnerships and new product launches, including a 37 billion yuan fundraising plan to invest in core technology and production processes [5][6] Group 3: Challenges for Terminal Manufacturers - Terminal manufacturers are facing significant cost pressures due to rising prices of components, including CPUs and storage, leading to a projected 14.8% decrease in global laptop shipments in Q1 2026 [7][8] - Major brands like Lenovo and Dell have begun to raise prices on their products, with increases ranging from 10% to 30%, while some brands are even canceling low-end models due to cost pressures [8][9] - The financial impact of rising component costs is evident, with companies like Transsion Holdings reporting a 54.11% decline in net profit due to increased supply chain costs [9][10]

Core Insights - The article highlights the journey of Gexiang Danzeng, a master craftsman of Tibetan paper, who transformed a toxic plant, the wolf poison grass, into a valuable cultural product while also uplifting his community through sustainable practices and innovation [2][4][6]. Group 1: Craftsmanship and Tradition - Gexiang Danzeng has been involved in Tibetan paper making for over 40 years, evolving from a traditional craftsman to a community leader [2][4]. - The Tibetan paper, made from wolf poison grass, is known for its durability and resistance to pests, making it a unique product in the market [9]. - The traditional craft faced challenges of survival and profitability, prompting Gexiang to innovate and expand the product line to include modern stationery and art supplies [4][9]. Group 2: Community Impact and Economic Development - In 2016, Gexiang established a cooperative that includes 12 families, providing employment opportunities for local residents, particularly those unable to work outside [5][6]. - The cooperative has seen an average monthly income of 3,050 yuan per member, with additional year-end bonuses, significantly improving the livelihoods of participating families [5]. - The cooperative's annual revenue ranges from 1.2 million to 1.5 million yuan, contributing to the local economy and establishing Tibetan paper as a source of wealth for the community [5][6]. Group 3: Sustainability and Future Prospects - Gexiang recognized the need for sustainable sourcing of wolf poison grass, leading to the establishment of an artificial cultivation project to ensure a steady supply of raw materials [5][6]. - The cooperative aims to expand its reach and impact, with plans to develop a structured training system for future generations and enhance online sales channels [7][8]. - Gexiang's vision includes making Tibetan paper a key element in rural revitalization efforts, ensuring the craft's longevity and cultural significance [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The Sudan Investment Authority's director, Ahlam, conducted an on-site inspection of the Asal Group's factory located in Shendi, Nile State, highlighting the group's diverse product offerings [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Asal Group produces a variety of products including soap, biscuits, notebooks, cardboard, bottled water, poultry, food packaging, and plastic products [1]

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The ongoing "memory shortage" driven by the AI wave is causing significant price increases in DRAM, with Samsung and SK Hynix notifying clients of a 60% to 70% rise in contract prices for the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous quarter [1] - The AI industry's demand for high-capacity and high-speed memory chips, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), is creating a "super bull market" in the memory sector, with HBM gross margins reaching 50%-60%, significantly higher than traditional DRAM margins of about 30% [2] - The memory market is expected to enter a "super bull market," surpassing the 2018 peak, with DRAM prices projected to increase by 40%-50% in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026 [4] Group 2: Impact on PC Industry - The sharp rise in memory prices is exerting new pressure on the recovering global PC market, with a projected year-on-year increase of 3.47% in global PC shipments for 2024 and 9.52% for Q3 2025, although rising memory costs are disrupting this growth [4] - Major PC manufacturers have begun to raise prices, with some products seeing increases of up to 20%, as companies like HP and Lenovo adjust their pricing strategies in response to rising costs [5][6] - The share of DRAM in the overall cost of PC systems is expected to rise to between 15% and 24.3% in the medium term, further squeezing profit margins for PC manufacturers [4] Group 3: Company Strategies - Companies like Thunderobot have demonstrated strong risk management and growth resilience by increasing their inventory of key components, such as CPUs and memory, in anticipation of price hikes, resulting in a 105.29% increase in inventory year-on-year [7] - Thunderobot's proactive inventory strategy has allowed it to maintain steady growth, with a 13.9% increase in revenue and a 10.36% increase in net profit for the first nine months of 2025 [7] - The company is also optimizing its product structure and sales channels, with overseas revenue growing from 107 million yuan in 2021 to 1.15 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a compound annual growth rate of 120.7% [9]

Core Insights - Jeju Island, known as the "Hawaii of Korea," has gained popularity due to the hit Korean drama "The Bitter Orange" and its favorable tourism policies, attracting a significant number of Chinese tourists [1] Group 1: Cultural and Creative Industry - Jeju Island is recognized for its vibrant cultural and creative industry, with a strong presence of unique cultural shops and cafes that reflect the island's artistic atmosphere [2][3] - The island's cultural industry has been supported by government initiatives since the 1990s, including the establishment of the "Cultural Industry Promotion Law" and various cultural institutions aimed at transforming creative content into tangible cultural products [10] Group 2: Local Economy and Tourism - The citrus industry, particularly oranges, has historically been a key economic pillar for Jeju Island, with cultivation dating back to the 16th century [3] - The island features a variety of cultural attractions, including the world's largest Snoopy theme park and numerous museums, showcasing its rich cultural life and drawing tourists [12][13] Group 3: Community and Lifestyle - Jeju Island has a unique demographic, with a significant elderly population, which influences the local service industry and community interactions [14] - The island's lifestyle is characterized by a slower pace, with local residents often engaging in friendly interactions with tourists, enhancing the overall travel experience [17][20]