策略周报 康波萧条期的全面加速 策略周末谈（0301） 核心结论 2026 年，萧条期的"三不变"决定了趋势正式进入加速阶段—— 一不变：RMB 升值的方向不变，调控的是节奏 离岸汇率创新高是跨境资金加速回流的结果。即便央行下场调控，更多调控 的是斜率而非方向。历史上出台类似的调控政策都基本不会改变实际的汇率 变动趋势。对市场的影响也相对有限。从结果看，升值带动外资流入，已初 现端倪。面对趋势渐弱的美股，年初以来我们观察到了主动资金开始陆续的 流入。这是康波萧条期中，属于追赶国股市的机遇。 丙午之年，大争之世。1978 年底，伊朗伊斯兰革命爆发，并引发第二次石 油危机；而 2026 年美以对伊战争爆发，也将带动商品超级周期走向新的阶 段。对 A 股而言，温和通胀将在 2026 年兑现为一轮属于追赶国的繁荣（炼 化、贵金属、有色金属、煤炭、油运等）。 风险提示：国际局势变化风险，美债利率超预期上行，产业政策变化风险等。 1 | 请务必仔细阅读报告尾部的投资评级说明和声明 分析师 曹柳龙 S0800525010001 13817664054 caoliulong@research.xbmail.com.cn 徐嘉 ...

[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 3 月 1 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 高频数据下的 2 月经济：价格篇 | [Tabl 分析师： | 郭磊 | 分析师： | 贺骁束 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | e_Author] | SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 | | SAC 执证号：S0260517030003 | | | SFC CE.no: BNY419 | | | | | 021-38003572 | | 021-38003589 | | | guolei@gf.com.cn | | hexiaoshu@gf.com.cn | | | 请注意，贺骁束并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 | | | [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： 2 月生意社 BPI 指数先抑后扬，月初受风险偏好回摆影响，有色金属价格延续下行；假期美伊地缘事件发酵， 叠加关税裁决引发美元走弱预期，以原油为主的外盘商品重回升势。截至 2 月 27 日，生意社 BPI 指数录得 947 点，相较 1 月 ...

商务大数据显示，2月16日至22日，全国生产资料市场价格比前一周(环比，下同)下降0.2%。 有色金属价格继续下降，其中铜、铝、锌分别下降1.1%、0.3%和0.1%。 橡胶价格略有下降，其中合成橡胶、天然橡胶分别下降0.3%和0.2%。 煤炭价格基本持平，其中动力煤、炼焦煤每吨777元和1043元，均与前一周持平，无烟块煤每吨1133 元，下降0.1%。 基础化学原料价格基本持平，其中硫酸、纯碱、聚丙烯均与前一周持平，甲醇下降0.2%。 成品油批发价格稳中略涨，其中95号汽油、0号柴油均与前一周持平，92号汽油上涨0.2%。 化肥价格略有上涨，其中尿素上涨0.3%，三元复合肥与前一周持平。 钢材价格稳中有降，其中普通中板、焊接钢管每吨3620元和3708元，均与前一周基本持平，热轧带钢、 螺纹钢每吨3499元和3342元，均下降0.1%。 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market price increased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables is 5.60 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.3%, with celery, lettuce, and cabbage rising by 5.7%, 5.0%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of 6 types of fruits saw a slight increase, with citrus, pears, and grapes rising by 1.0%, 1.0%, and 0.7% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products slightly increased, with large hairtail, silver carp, and carp rising by 1.2%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [1] - The wholesale price of pork is 18.98 yuan per kilogram, up by 0.5%, while lamb and beef increased by 0.3% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with soybean oil and rapeseed oil rising by 0.1%, while peanut oil and rice remained unchanged, and flour decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices showed a slight decline, with white strip chicken remaining stable and eggs decreasing by 0.6% [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to decline, with copper, aluminum, and zinc decreasing by 1.1%, 0.3%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Rubber prices slightly decreased, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber falling by 0.3% and 0.2% respectively [2] - Steel prices remained stable with slight declines, where ordinary medium plates and welded steel pipes were priced at 3620 yuan and 3708 yuan per ton, respectively, while hot-rolled strip steel and rebar decreased by 0.1% [2] - Coal prices remained stable, with thermal coal and coking coal priced at 777 yuan and 1043 yuan per ton, respectively, while anthracite coal decreased by 0.1% [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials remained stable, with sulfuric acid, soda ash, and polypropylene unchanged, while methanol decreased by 0.2% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil showed slight increases, with 95 gasoline and 0 diesel remaining stable, while 92 gasoline increased by 0.2% [2] - Fertilizer prices saw a slight increase, with urea rising by 0.3%, while compound fertilizers remained unchanged [2]

煤炭价格环比下降1.0%，同比下降6.7%，其中，炼焦煤、二号无烟块煤、动力煤环比分别下降1.8%、 1.5%和0.6%。 成品油价格环比下降2.1%，同比下降12.6%，其中，0号柴油、95号汽油、92号汽油环比分别下降 2.6%、1.6%和1.5%。 有色金属价格环比上涨8.1%，同比上涨23.5%，其中，铜、铝、锌环比分别上涨8.9%、7.4%和5.3%。 化肥价格环比上涨0.9%，同比下降2.2%，其中，尿素、三元复合肥环比分别上涨1.0%和0.5%。 钢材价格环比上涨0.1%，同比下降6.3%，其中，普通高速线材、热轧带钢、焊接钢管环比均上涨 0.2%。 商务大数据显示，1月份，全国生产资料市场价格环比上涨1.6%。 从主要品种来看： ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment, U.S.-China relations, and the impact of tariff policies on various industries, particularly focusing on China's export sectors such as semiconductors and machinery. Core Insights and Arguments - **U.S.-China Relations Stability**: The market anticipates that U.S.-China relations will remain stable in the first half of 2026, supported by planned high-level meetings and positive attitudes from both sides [3] - **Tariff Policy Changes**: The U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on tariffs has led to a reduction in China's effective tariff rate from 29.8% to 22%, narrowing the gap with global rates by 6.5%. This is expected to benefit China's export sectors, especially semiconductors and machinery [4][22] - **Economic Recovery Indicators**: China's economic recovery is being validated through a three-step process, including positive CPI and PPI data, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by the end of Q2 2026 [7][8] - **Strong Consumer Demand**: During the Spring Festival, retail and catering sales increased by 8.6% year-on-year, indicating robust consumer demand. Port throughput also grew by 13.2%, reflecting active economic activity [8][9][10] - **Financial Data Insights**: January financial data showed strong corporate deposit growth, indicating potential for production investment and improved economic circulation. However, consumer loan growth remains weak [13][14] - **PPI Trends**: January 2026 PPI rose by 0.4%, marking the highest monthly increase since mid-2021. The forecast for PPI indicates a potential positive shift by mid-2026, driven by improved supply-demand dynamics in the manufacturing sector [16] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **AI and Economic Growth**: The development of AI is seen as a crucial factor in addressing U.S. debt issues and enhancing the long-term credibility of the dollar. AI-driven growth could lead to a scenario where inflation remains low, allowing for potential interest rate cuts [6] - **Old vs. New Economy Performance**: While traditional sectors like real estate and durable goods are underperforming, new economy sectors, particularly exports and midstream manufacturing, are thriving, contributing to overall economic growth [12] - **Global Monetary Policy Trends**: The global monetary policy landscape is characterized by continued easing, with expectations that the aggressive phase of monetary expansion will taper off by 2026 [18][19] - **Liquidity in Financial Markets**: Despite volatility, global liquidity remains healthy, with improvements in dollar liquidity and stable credit spreads, indicating a resilient financial environment [21] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the macroeconomic context, industry-specific insights, and broader financial trends.

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 新年新气象 市场或迎"暖春" 【20260209-20260215】 核心观点 大类资产总览：节前仍显波动，但暖意初现。 节前一周，权益市场波动幅度仍然较大，叠加前期获利资金 的了结与板块的轮动，市场经历了频繁且大幅的波动，这种 波动在节前稍显缓和，但依旧存在，在长假期带来的不确定 性中，场内资金仍处于分歧与调整的阶段。但同样也可以看 出，在历经了为期两周的调整后，节前市场虽有波动，但暖 意初现，一方面，场内成交金额持续维持较高区间，对市场 形成有效支撑；另一方面，投资者虽对长假期所带来的短期 不确定性有一定担忧，但中长期对市场依然有较大信心，因 此，前期的回调并未对市场引起较大的扰动。而债市则迎来 短期"蜜月周期"，资金面的持续宽松和权益市场、商品市 场逸散的低风险资金，都为债市短期是上行带来了充足的资 金补充。商品市场仍在回落，贵金属前期过 ...

内容提要 2025年以来俄罗斯卢布兑美元大幅升值。在油价持续低迷且俄罗斯经济增长疲软的背景下，卢布升值的原因，一是俄通过增加非油气出口、资本管制等改善 了经常账户与资本账户平衡；二是俄紧缩货币政策、外汇市场干预等也支撑了卢布汇率。卢布升值对俄联邦财政收入和企业经营造成负面影响，进而削弱了 俄经济增长动能，降低了俄资产的吸引力。我国需关注强卢布可能给哈萨克斯坦等中亚国家带来的输入性通胀等外溢影响，并警惕其他新兴市场国家类似的 汇率波动风险。 一、卢布大幅升值、锚定油价逻辑失灵 一是俄罗斯外债下降，购汇偿债需求低。2020至2024年，俄国家外债占GDP比重从3.9%下降至2.6%。2025年前三季度俄国家外债进一步下降13%，至4.6万 亿卢布。而且俄罗斯政府以卢布替代外币偿还对非友好国家债务，并允许和鼓励俄罗斯企业以卢布债券替代此前发行的欧洲债券，俄罗斯政府和企业购汇偿 债的需求均下降。 俄罗斯卢布曾长期被视作"石油货币"，其币值与油价高度正相关，这主要是由于石油、天然气等长期是俄罗斯主要的出口产品，是俄罗斯外汇储备和财政收 入的最主要来源。但2025年以来，俄卢布汇率与油价走势大幅背离，卢布兑美元汇率较年初 ...

早上好，今天是大年初六，祝大家六六大顺启新程，财气满满一路升！ 先来关注下国际市场。 特朗普：原本10%的全球进口关税税率将升至15% 据央视新闻最新消息，当地时间2月21日，美国总统特朗普在其社交平台"真实社交"上发文称，将把对 全球商品加征10%的进口关税的税率水平提高至15%。 特朗普在文中称，"基于对美国联邦最高法院20日就关税问题作出的裁决进行全面、详尽且完整的审查 ——该裁决荒谬、措辞拙劣且极端反美"，"将自即日起，把目前对全球各国征收的10%统一关税，提高 至完全被允许、并经过法律检验的15%水平"。 特朗普表示，在接下来的几个月内，美国政府将确定并公布新的、在法律上允许的关税措施。 有分析认为，与特朗普此前加征关税不同，根据上述条款，这项新关税最多只能持续150天，除非国会 批准延期。 "谈判陷入僵局"，外媒爆料：伊朗外长拒绝打开美方装有导弹提议的信函，并将其退回 环球网援引路透社报道，来自伊朗、美国官员以及一些海湾国家和欧洲国家外交官的消息显示，美国和 伊朗之间"谈判陷入僵局，两国军事冲突风险正在加大"。 报道援引一名熟悉谈判情况的消息人士的话称，当调解方阿曼向伊朗转交来自美方的装有与导弹相 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent release of January CPI and PPI data by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting the importance of the five-year base period rotation and the transparency of data publication, which reflects changes in consumer spending patterns and impacts residents' perceptions of prices [5][6]. Group 1: CPI and PPI Data Analysis - In January 2026, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to the timing of the Spring Festival [15]. - The PPI in January 2026 was -1.4%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, driven by rising international prices of non-ferrous metals due to investment in emerging industries like artificial intelligence [16]. - The article emphasizes the need for a combined analysis of January and February CPI data due to the Spring Festival's impact on price fluctuations [15]. Group 2: Changes in CPI Weighting - The CPI's weighting system underwent a significant adjustment, with the new base period starting in 2025, reflecting changes in consumer behavior and the introduction of new categories such as internet medical services and elderly products [8][11]. - The weight of food and beverages, clothing, housing, and other categories has been adjusted, with food and beverage weights decreasing while service weights have increased, indicating a shift in consumer spending patterns [8][20]. - The average impact of the base period rotation on monthly CPI year-on-year indices is estimated to be approximately 0.06 percentage points [8]. Group 3: Economic Implications and Policy Recommendations - The article highlights the ongoing issue of low prices in the Chinese economy, with the GDP deflator index negative for 11 consecutive quarters and PPI negative for 40 months, necessitating stronger measures to promote reasonable price recovery [20]. - Current macroeconomic policies are aimed at boosting domestic demand and supporting price recovery through fiscal measures and adjustments in monetary policy [21]. - Long-term price recovery will depend on effectively addressing supply-demand imbalances, including wage growth mechanisms and optimizing income distribution [22].