2025年9月26日，中信期货2025年秋季策略会圆满收官。本次策略会以"潮汐涌动.破卷立新"为主题，采 用线上会议的形式举行。通过7大论坛，中信期货研究所的研究员们以多元视角解析市场，多维度深挖 投资机遇，针对四季度及2026年大宗商品、权益、汇率等期货及衍生品领域展开深入剖析，助力投资者 多维掘金、稳健布局。 宏观与贵金属论坛：稳中求进|宏观趋势与资产配置 中信期货研究所宏观与国际研究部总经理姜婧女士表示，四季度宏观和大类资产基调是"稳中求进"，政 策与基本面对冲效应使得宏观环境偏"稳"，资产配置策略偏"进"。从国内层面看，四季度稳增长政策聚 焦三大方向：一是5000亿元政策性金融工具，二是货币政策大概率实施降准，三是"十五五"规划前瞻。 从海外维度看，美国经济动能趋疲，但政策"再校准"将提供支撑，未来1-2个季度，全球宽松流动性与 财政杠杆带动的复苏预期，将为风险资产提供支撑。 中信期货研究所宏观研究组资深研究员朱善颖女士聚焦贵金属，强调四季度黄金震荡偏强，是长期战略 配置窗口。尽管近两年实际利率与金价相关性降低，但受降息周期重启和美联储独立性风险影响，美国 实际利率下行周期中黄金上涨从未缺席。长期来看 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Nonferrous Metal Construction Co., Ltd. (中色股份) has shown a mixed performance in stock price and financial metrics, with a notable increase in revenue and profit year-on-year, while experiencing fluctuations in stock trading activity and shareholder composition [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - As of September 29, 中色股份's stock price increased by 2.08% to 6.39 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 2.41 billion CNY and a market capitalization of 12.72 billion CNY [1]. - The stock has risen by 30.57% year-to-date, with a slight increase of 0.47% over the last five trading days, a decline of 11.13% over the last 20 days, and a rise of 25.79% over the last 60 days [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, 中色股份 reported a revenue of 5.292 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.90%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 441 million CNY, which is a 40.00% increase compared to the previous year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 1.079 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 91.67 million CNY distributed over the last three years [2]. Group 3: Shareholder Composition - As of September 19, 中色股份 had 121,000 shareholders, a decrease of 2.78% from the previous period, with an average of 16,326 circulating shares per shareholder, an increase of 2.86% [2]. - The top ten circulating shareholders include significant institutional investors, with Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited holding 29.031 million shares, a decrease of 8.038 million shares from the previous period [2].

不只是利率数字的变化，更是全球资本流动的重新布局 近期，美联储降息预期再度成为全球市场焦点。许多人困惑不已：为什么美国加息被称为"收割全世界"，现在降息又被说成"收割全世界"？这种简单化的阴 谋论往往让我们忽略了背后的经济逻辑。 事实上，货币政策变化对不同人群产生截然不同的影响。今天我们将建立一套完整的分析框架，帮助你看清美国降息背后的真实机制，做出有利于自己的决 策。 什么是货币政策？简而言之，任何会增加或减少货币数量的政策都属于货币政策范畴。这些政策由各国央行制定和执行，虽然新闻不会直接说"央行要增加 或减少货币"，但会通过专业术语传达这些信息。 利率调整远不止影响存贷款成本，其核心目标是调节市场上的货币数量。当美联储宣布降息，实际上意味着他们要以更低利率向外投放更多美元。美联储凭 什么能决定降息？因为它掌握着几乎无限的美元供应能力，可以通过大量放贷迫使商业银行跟进降息。 存款准备金率调整同样影响货币供应。比如准备金率下调0.5个百分点，银行就能将更多资金用于放贷，而且这些钱会通过银行系统的乘数效应放大，显著 增加市场流动性。 公开市场操作是另一个重要工具。当央行购买国债时，向市场注入流动性；出售国债时， ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3853.64, up by 0.83%, and the Shenzhen Component Index closing at 13356.14, up by 1.80% [2] - The ChiNext Index reached a new three-year high, closing at 3185.57, with a gain of 2.28% [4] - The STAR 50 Index saw a significant increase, rising by 3.49% to close at 1456.47 [2] Sector Analysis - The top-performing sectors included Electric Equipment (up 2.88%), Electronics (up 2.76%), and Media (up 2.59%) [3] - Conversely, the Banking sector experienced a decline of 0.36%, and the Coal sector fell by 0.29% [3] - Notable concept stocks such as those in the chip industry and real estate showed strong performance, while sectors like Food & Beverage and Communications lagged behind [4][5] Future Outlook - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, with a focus on whether the Shanghai Composite Index can maintain above the 3850-point level [6] - The technology sector is anticipated to play a crucial role in driving market sentiment, with ongoing capital market vitality expected post-holiday [6] - Investment opportunities are likely to emerge from sectors such as TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), public utilities, and non-ferrous metals [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - For the stock index, after continuous previous rises, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently. There is a short - term adjustment pressure on the index due to capital rotation and shrinking trading volume. However, in the long - term, with policy support for the capital market remaining unchanged, the strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - Regarding national debt, considering the slowdown of economic data in August and the expected weakening of the export pull, along with the central bank's maintenance of loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term, but the stock - bond seesaw effect needs attention [8]. - For precious metals, after the September interest - rate cut, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures makes the market expect further interest - rate cuts. It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metals are affected by the Fed's interest - rate policy. Although short - term sentiment may be affected, with the approach of the National Day holiday, downstream demand is expected to increase, providing support for metal prices. Different metals have different supply - demand situations, and corresponding strategies are formulated accordingly [13][15][17][19][20][22][24][26][28][30]. - In the black building materials sector, the steel market is affected by factors such as weak demand and narrowing steel mill profits, and there is a risk of price decline. The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, and the glass and soda ash markets are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out. The manganese - silicon and silicon - iron markets may have a short - term downward callback risk but may have multi - allocation value in the future. Industrial silicon and polysilicon markets are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [34][36][37][40][42][43][47][49]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be long - term bullish and short - term neutral or slightly bullish; crude oil is recommended to be long - term multi - allocated; methanol and urea are recommended to be observed; pure benzene and styrene are recommended to go long on dips; PVC and ethylene glycol are recommended to go short on rallies; PTA and p - xylene are recommended to be observed [53][56][58][60][62][64][66][69][71]. - In the agricultural products sector, the pig price is expected to be stable or decline, and it is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage. The egg price is expected to be stable, and it is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline. The soybean meal market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. The oil market is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization. The sugar market is expected to be bearish in the long - term but may have a short - term rebound. The cotton market is recommended to be observed in the short term [79][81][84][86][88][91]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The arrival of the central delegation in Xinjiang, the new high of spot gold prices, the continuous capital inflow of KWEB, and the suspension of trading of Tianpu Co., Ltd. for verification [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH in different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term adjustment pressure exists, but long - term long - on - dips strategy is recommended [4]. - **National Debt** - **Market Information**: The decline of main contracts on Tuesday, the release of August's power consumption data, and the reduction of the US current - account deficit [5]. - **Liquidity**: The central bank conducted 2761 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 109 billion yuan [6][7]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline, and the bond market is expected to oscillate and recover in the short term [8]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: The price changes of domestic and foreign gold and silver, the dovish stance of the Fed's key figures [9]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: The slight decline of LME copper, the reduction of LME and SHFE copper inventories, and the narrowing of the refined - scrap price difference [11]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may oscillate and rise [13]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The decline of LME aluminum, the reduction of SHFE aluminum positions and inventories, and the change of the spot - futures basis [14]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price may repair upwards [15]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The decline of the zinc index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [16]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be weak [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The decline of the lead index, the change of positions and inventories, and the calculation of the import profit and loss [18]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to be strong [19]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: The oscillatory operation of nickel prices, the stable cost of nickel ore and nickel iron, and the increase of MHP prices [20]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the long - term, and the short - term price is expected to operate within a certain range [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: The decline of the tin contract, the increase of registered warehouse receipts, and the decline of tin concentrate prices [21]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to observe [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The stable spot price and the increase of the futures contract price [23]. - **Strategy**: The price has a strong bottom support, and it is recommended to pay attention to supply and demand and market sentiment [24]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The decline of the alumina index, the change of positions, and the opening of the import window [25]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and wait for macro - sentiment resonance [26]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of the stainless - steel contract, the stable spot price, and the reduction of social inventories [27]. - **Strategy**: The short - term price is expected to oscillate [28]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The decline of the AD2511 contract, the change of positions and inventories, and the stable average price [29]. - **Strategy**: The price is under pressure above and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [30]. 3.3 Black Building Materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The decline of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices, the change of registered warehouse receipts and positions, and the decline of spot prices [32]. - **Strategy**: There is a risk of price decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired [34]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The decline of the iron - ore contract, the change of positions, and the calculation of the basis [35]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [36]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The decline of glass and soda - ash futures prices, the change of inventories and positions [37][39]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to continue to oscillate and sort out [37][40]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The rise of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures prices, and the stable spot prices [41]. - **Strategy**: There may be a short - term downward callback risk, but multi - allocation value may appear in the future [42][43]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The decline of industrial - silicon and polysilicon futures prices, and the change of positions and inventories [46][48]. - **Strategy**: Both are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and policy impacts [47][49]. 3.4 Energy and Chemical - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: The impact of typhoon "Huajiacha", the different views of bulls and bears, and the change of tire - enterprise operating rates and inventories [51][52][53]. - **Strategy**: Long - term bullish, short - term neutral or slightly bullish [53]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The decline of WTI, Brent, and INE crude - oil futures prices, and the de - stocking of refined - oil products in Fujeirah Port [54]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to multi - allocate [56]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The change of methanol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [57]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [58]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The decline of urea prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [59]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe or go long on dips [60]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The change of pure - benzene and styrene prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [61]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on dips [62]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The decline of PVC prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [63]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies [64]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The decline of ethylene - glycol prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [65]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of non - fulfillment of weak expectations [66]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The decline of PTA prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [67]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe [69]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The decline of p - xylene prices and basis, and the change of supply and demand and inventories [70]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe and pay attention to the recovery of the terminal and PTA valuations [71]. - **Polyethylene (PE)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PE futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [72]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate upwards in the long - term [73]. - **Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The decline of PP futures prices, the change of spot prices, basis, and supply - demand indicators [74]. - **Strategy**: There is no prominent short - term contradiction, and the price is under pressure from high - level warehouse receipts [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Pig** - **Market Information**: The stable or declining pig prices in different regions, and the abundant supply and limited demand [78]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [79]. - **Egg** - **Market Information**: The stable egg prices, and the stable supply and general demand [80]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after a decline [81]. - **Soybean Meal** - **Market Information**: The weak rebound of US soybeans, the cancellation of Argentina's export tax, and the change of domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories [82]. - **Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate in a range, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [84]. - **Oil** - **Market Information**: The change of palm - oil export and production in Malaysia, the decline of domestic oil prices, and the stable spot basis [85]. - **Strategy**: It is expected to be oscillatory and bullish in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy after a decline and stabilization [86]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The decline of sugar futures and spot prices, and the decrease of Brazil's sugar exports [87]. - **Strategy**: Bearish in the long - term, but may have a short - term rebound [88]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The decline of cotton futures and spot prices, the change of downstream operating rates and inventories, and the high - quality rate of US cotton [90]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to observe in the short term [91].

每经记者｜刘艳美 每经编辑｜杨欢 广西壮族自治区人民政府官网23日消息，9月22日，自治区党委书记、自治区党委全面深化改革委员会 主任陈刚主持召开自治区党委全面深化改革委员会第十四次会议，专题研究广西有色金属特别是关键金 属产业高质量发展工作，审议通过《建设南丹关键金属高质量发展综合试验区总体方案》等文件。 会议强调，推动有色金属特别是关键金属产业高质量发展，要重点抓好"十个一"。其中包括：编制一个 有色金属产业高质量发展"1＋2＋8"规划体系，即广西有色金属产业高质量发展五年规划，以及关键金 属产业创新发展五年规划、铝产业发展规划和八个具体实施方案；高质量打造一个南丹关键金属综合试 验区，鼓励大胆试、大胆闯、大胆干，为全区有色金属特别是关键金属产业高质量发展树标杆作示范； 组建一家广西关键金属产业发展国有企业集团，开展资产评估，优化股权结构，加快完成集团组建并投 入运营等。 解读：南丹县位于广西北部，2024年GDP刚刚超过200亿元，常住人口仅27万人，是一个名副其实的西 部山区小县。广西为何要"押注"这样一个小县城？这背后，其实有着重要考量。 当前，矿产资源作为工业发展的"粮食"和"血液"，战略价值愈发 ...

证券研究报告 | 投资策略研究*周报 2025 年 09 月 22 日 2025 年 9 月 15 日-9 月 19 日，A 股市场整体呈现震荡分化态势，主要指数 涨跌互现。市场风格主要表现为成长占优，以创业板为代表的科技成长板块 表现相对较强；权重板块承压，大金融、资源类板块调整压力较大。市场分 歧有所加剧，周内、日内涨跌幅波动加大，部分资金在美联储降息 25bp 靴 子落地后选择获利了结，而另一些资金选择继续布局成长主线。整体来看， 我们认为"存款搬家"仍在途中，市场资金面活跃，各类资金积极入市，市 场强势的科技主线逻辑没有改变，当前应无惧市场波动，慢牛行情仍在进行 之中。 热点一：美联储 9 月降息行情提前反映，降息落地后市场波动有所加大 进入 9 月以来，在美联储公布 9 月议息会议结果前，市场提前反映降息预期， 以人工智能、半导体、固态电池为代表的成长板块加速上涨。9 月 17 日，美 联储议息会议如市场预期将联邦基金利率目标区间下调 25 个基点至 4.00%-4.25%，这是美联储 2025 年的首次降息。但是，由于此前国内股市 涨幅过快过高，短期内部分资金趁着降息 25bp 利好的兑现而选择了 ...

Core Insights - The Xuzhou Huaihai International Port Area is leveraging digital trade to enhance cross-border shopping experiences and streamline international logistics through the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][2] - The Huaihai International Port has established a digital trade service platform that integrates logistics, trade, and customs operations, significantly boosting trade efficiency [4][5] Group 1: Digital Trade Development - The Huaihai International Port Area has developed a digital trade industrial park that showcases imported products from Europe, Japan, South Korea, and Southeast Asia, facilitating a one-stop shopping experience [1] - The Xuzhou China-Europe Railway Express has operated over 2,000 trains since its inception in 2015, connecting 21 countries and over 50 cities, thus forming a vital international transport artery [2] - The digital trade industrial park aims to fill gaps in international trade functions and enhance the integration of trade and logistics [2][3] Group 2: Innovative Operational Models - The port area has created a comprehensive bonded logistics system by linking export supervision warehouses and import bonded warehouses, achieving a trade volume exceeding $697 million [3] - The digital service platform has recorded a transaction volume of over 1.03 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a total transaction volume of 2.25 billion yuan and 70 registered enterprises [4] - The platform offers core services such as "Logistics Mall," "Cargo Manager," and "Cloud Distribution," focusing on intelligent logistics organization and paperless operations [4] Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - The port area is implementing a multi-modal transport information platform to enhance logistics efficiency and reduce costs, utilizing the "Train + Overseas Warehouse" model to improve order fulfillment times [7] - The integration of AI tools for product selection and compliance analysis is being used to lower export chain costs and enhance competitiveness [7] - The introduction of "cross-border digital credit" products has significantly reduced financing times for enterprises, addressing challenges related to traditional financing methods [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the growth trends in various sectors of the Chinese economy for August 2025, including industrial output, fixed asset investment, and retail sales, indicating a mixed economic recovery with specific sectors showing stronger performance than others [2][3][8]. Industrial Output - In August 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.37%. For the first eight months of 2025, the year-on-year growth was 6.2% [3]. - By sector, mining increased by 5.1%, manufacturing by 5.7%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.4% in August [3]. - Among 41 major industries, 31 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in chemical raw materials and products (7.6%), black metal smelting and processing (7.3%), and non-ferrous metal smelting and processing (9.1%) [3][4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to August 2025, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 326.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.5%. However, private investment decreased by 2.3% [5][6]. - The investment in the primary industry grew by 5.5%, while the secondary industry saw a 7.6% increase. The tertiary industry, however, experienced a decline of 3.4% [6]. - Infrastructure investment in the tertiary sector grew by 2.0%, with significant increases in water transportation (15.9%) and water conservancy management (7.4%) [6]. Retail Sales - In August 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 39.668 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4%. Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.7% [8][10]. - For the first eight months, total retail sales amounted to 323.906 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.6% [10]. - Online retail sales for the same period reached 99.828 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, with physical goods online sales growing by 6.4% [11]. Energy Production - In August 2025, the production of raw coal decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, while crude oil production increased by 2.4% [15][18]. - The industrial electricity generation reached 936.3 billion kilowatt-hours in August, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.6% [23]. - Natural gas production also saw stable growth, with an output of 21.2 billion cubic meters in August, up by 5.9% year-on-year [21].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the text. Core Views of the Report - After continuous pre - rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence recently, with funds switching between high and low levels and rapid rotation. The short - term index faces adjustment pressure, but the long - term view is to go long on dips as policy support for the capital market remains unchanged [2][3]. - The bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern. Although the central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds, the rise in market risk preference suppresses bond market sentiment, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw effect [4][5]. - For the precious metals sector, with the weakening of the US labor market and the easing of inflation data, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. It is recommended to go long on dips, especially focusing on the upward opportunity of silver prices [6][7]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, most metal prices are affected by factors such as macroeconomic data, supply and demand in the industrial chain, and inventory changes. Different metals have different trends and investment suggestions, but generally, the positive macro - atmosphere and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have a certain impact on the sector [9][10][15]. - In the black building materials sector, steel prices may decline if demand cannot be effectively repaired. Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term shock - strong. Glass and soda ash prices are expected to be in a shock pattern, and the prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron are recommended to be observed [25][27][29]. - In the energy chemical sector, different chemical products have different trends. For example, rubber is recommended to be observed in the short - term, and crude oil is recommended to be long - allocated. Methanol, urea, and other products have corresponding investment suggestions based on their supply - demand and cost situations [37][38][39]. - In the agricultural products sector, the prices of different agricultural products such as live pigs, eggs, and soybean meal are affected by factors such as supply - demand, inventory, and weather. Different trading strategies are proposed for each product [53][54][55]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - financial Category Index Futures - **News**: The State Council approves a two - year comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation in 10 regions. US investors' attention to the Chinese market has reached the highest level since 2021. US CPI data in August slightly exceeded expectations, and traders fully priced in three Fed interest - rate cuts by the end of 2025 [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: Different basis ratios are provided for IF, IC, IM, and IH contracts [3]. - **Trading Logic**: After the previous rise, high - level hot sectors show divergence, and the short - term index faces adjustment pressure. In the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, and the idea is to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Quotes**: On Thursday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes [4]. - **News**: The State Council approves a comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation, and the Ministry of Commerce promotes the opening up of digital trade. The central bank conducts a net injection of 794 billion yuan through reverse repurchase operations [4]. - **Strategy**: The manufacturing PMI in August improved but remained below the boom - bust line. The central bank maintains a positive attitude towards funds, and the bond market is expected to be in a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - **Market Quotes**: The prices of Shanghai gold, Shanghai silver, COMEX gold, and COMEX silver had different changes. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are provided [6]. - **Market Outlook**: The US CPI data slightly exceeded expectations, and the labor market data was weak. The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year. It is recommended to go long on dips, focusing on silver [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - **Market Quotes**: LME copper and Shanghai copper prices rose. LME copper inventory decreased, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased [9]. - **Price Outlook**: The US employment data is weak, and the Fed is expected to be dovish. Overseas copper mine supply is disturbed, and domestic copper production decreases marginally. Copper prices are expected to be strong [9]. Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum prices rose. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory decreased, and the demand for aluminum rods decreased [10]. - **Price Outlook**: The macro - sentiment is positive, and overseas interest - rate cut expectations and aluminum exports support the price. The domestic terminal demand improvement is weak, and attention should be paid to the peak - season demand and inventory [10]. Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai zinc index and LME zinc prices rose. Zinc ore and zinc ingot inventories increased, and the domestic supply is loose [11]. - **Price Outlook**: The zinc market is in a situation of internal weakness and external strength. It is expected to be in a low - level shock pattern [11]. Lead - **Market Quotes**: The Shanghai lead index and LME lead prices rose. The lead industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the domestic inventory decreased slightly [12]. - **Price Outlook**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation supports the price, but if the commodity sentiment weakens, the lead price may decline [12]. Nickel - **Market Outlook**: The US initial jobless claims data strengthens the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Nickel iron prices are expected to be stable and strong, and intermediate product prices are supported. It is recommended to go long on dips [13][15]. Tin - **Market Outlook**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is slow, and the domestic tin production is expected to decrease in September. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and tin prices are expected to be in a shock pattern [16]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Outlook**: The production of carbonate lithium increased this week, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to continue to deplete inventory in the peak season, and there may be structural opportunities. Attention should be paid to market and industrial information [17]. Alumina - **Market Quotes**: The alumina index rose, and the futures inventory increased. The overseas ore supply is improving, and the short - term strategy is to wait and see [18]. Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless steel futures price decreased slightly, and the spot market was in a narrow - range shock. The 304 hot - rolled steel supply was tight, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The AD2511 contract rose, and the inventory increased. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, and the price is expected to remain high [22]. Black Building Materials Category Steel - **Market Quotes**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased. The rebar demand is weak, and the hot - rolled coil demand is relatively strong [24][25]. - **Price Outlook**: If the demand cannot be repaired, steel prices may decline. Attention should be paid to safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions [25]. Iron Ore - **Market Quotes**: The iron ore futures price decreased. The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, and the demand is supported in the short - term. The inventory increased slightly [26][27]. - **Price Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to be short - term shock - strong, and attention should be paid to downstream demand recovery and de - stocking speed [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot price decreased, and the inventory decreased. The glass production increased, but the demand data has not improved significantly. The price adjustment space is limited [28]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. The supply is at a high level, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern in the short - term and may rise in the long - term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron - **Market Quotes**: The prices of manganese silicon and silicon iron futures had different changes. The market is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the short - term trading strategy is to wait and see [30][31]. - **Outlook**: The black - building materials sector focuses on the verification of real - end demand. Manganese silicon and silicon iron are expected to follow the black - sector sentiment [32]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rose slightly. The supply and demand increased in August, and it is expected to be in a shock pattern in September, affected by downstream integration and market sentiment [33][34]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rose. The polysilicon market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" situation, and the price is expected to be in a shock pattern, affected by capacity integration and downstream price - passing [34][35]. Energy Chemical Category Rubber - **Market Outlook**: NR and RU are in a weak shock. The future rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease, and there are different views on the rise and fall of rubber prices. The medium - term view is long, and the short - term view is neutral [37][38]. Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil had different changes. The Singapore oil product inventory decreased [39]. - **Outlook**: It is believed that OPEC's production increase is a pressure test. The oil price is underestimated, and it is recommended to long - allocate crude oil [39]. Methanol - **Market Outlook**: The methanol futures price decreased. The port inventory is high, but the supply is sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the 1 - 5 positive spread [40]. Urea - **Market Outlook**: The urea futures price rose slightly. The demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips [41]. Styrene - **Market Outlook**: The spot price is unchanged, and the futures price rose. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure benzene US - South Korea spread on dips [42]. PVC - **Market Outlook**: The PVC futures price rose. The supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short - allocate on highs, but beware of the "anti - involution" sentiment [45]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Outlook**: The EG01 contract price decreased. The supply is high, and the port inventory is expected to increase in the medium - term. The valuation is high in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [46]. PTA - **Market Outlook**: The PTA01 contract price decreased. The supply is in a de - stocking pattern, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [47]. p - Xylene - **Market Outlook**: The PX11 contract price rose. The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA load is low. The valuation is neutral - low, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [48][49]. Polyethylene - **Market Outlook**: The polyethylene futures price decreased. The cost is supported, the inventory is decreasing, and the demand is expected to increase seasonally. The price is expected to rise in a shock [50]. Polypropylene - **Market Outlook**: The polypropylene futures price decreased. The supply pressure is high, and the demand is rebounding seasonally. It is recommended to go long on the LL - PP2601 contract on dips [51]. Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - **Market Outlook**: The domestic pig price is in a bottom - grinding state, with potential support factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level rebound and short - sell after the rebound [53]. Eggs - **Market Outlook**: The egg price mostly rose. The supply pressure is decreasing, and it is recommended to wait and see, and consider short - term long positions after the price decline [54]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Important Information**: The US soybean price rose slightly, and the domestic soybean meal market is affected by high inventory. The soybean优良率 may decline, and attention should be paid to the USDA report [55]. - **Trading Strategy**: The soybean import cost is weak - stable. It is recommended to go long on dips in the low - cost range of soybean meal [56]. Oils and Fats - **Important Information**: The export of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the production decreased. The import price of domestic palm oil is inverted. The domestic oils and fats market is affected by multiple factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: The oil and fat market is expected to be shock - strong in the medium - term. It is recommended to buy on dips after the price decline [58][59]. Sugar - **Market Outlook**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The domestic and foreign sugar markets are bearish, and the sugar price is expected to decline, depending on the Brazilian production [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Outlook**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price is in a shock. The downstream consumption is general, and the new - year production is expected to be high. The inventory is low, and the short - term cotton price is expected to be in a shock [62][63].