主论坛环节，中国宏观经济学会副会长祝宝良发表了关于《2026年我国宏观经济形势和政策取向》 的主题演讲。他指出，当前，我国的潜在经济增长速度仍在5%左右。建议把推动物价合理回升和经济 增长5%左右作为2026年经济调控目标。2026年，要坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的财 政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，不断深化改革、扩大开放，着力扩大内需，着力增强微观主体活力，着 力稳定市场主体信心，推动经济稳中向好。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘及其团队对全球经济走势作出研判。他们认为，2025年关税波折 扰乱全球经济，预计2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期：一是清朗的基本面，包括地缘、财 政、货币政策的不确定性下降，美欧日经济增长将适度加速，以及通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"；二是 在资产配置端要保持一份清醒。展望2026年，预计全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年，同时美元在 上半年波折后将转强，二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率低于 2025年。具体资产来看，仍看好AI行业，并维持对黄金和工业金属的超配建议。 11月26日，以"破浪前行，扬帆起航"为主题的中信期货 ...

今年的市场特点是方向不确定、事件驱动增强、波动率周期反复，通过量化模型识别波动结构与情绪拐 点，姜炯的团队在震荡市中捕捉到了更稳定的收益机会。"方向往往是偶然的，但波动是必然的。在宏 观不确定性提升的阶段，专注于波动定价和风险暴露管理，比盲目预测方向更能带来稳健收益。"姜炯 对期货日报记者说。 品种上，姜炯的团队主要聚焦科创50、有色金属、黄金、原油、农产品及恒生科技等相关标的。期权方 面，重点布局中证1000、科创50等指数期权，偶尔配合商品期权做互补。"选择这些品种，一方面是基 于基本面的中长期逻辑，比如有色金属受益于全球补库与绿色转型，科创50受益于自主创新政策；另一 方面，我们也看重品种的流动性与波动特征，确保期权策略能有较好的定价与成交效率。"他解释，选 择标的的两个核心标准则是，隐含波动率处于低位、受宏观影响较大，以及受"反内卷"逻辑影响明显。 在入场时机上，他们坚持"基本面定方向，技术面定时机"，期权方面，特别关注市场情绪与波动率位 置。"本质上，我们不做预测型交易，只做逻辑验证后的跟随与保护。"姜炯介绍，识别交易机会依托量 化模型与宏观判断结合的体系，模型部分以波动率结构、量价行为、资金流因子 ...

天眼查App显示，近日，湖南丝路鑫金属材料有限公司成立，法定代表人为卿为乐，注册资本618万人 民币，经营范围为一般项目：有色金属压延加工;金属材料制造;钢压延加工;光纤制造;网络设备制造;生 产性废旧金属回收;光纤销售;网络设备销售;电气设备修理;电线、电缆经营;化工产品销售（不含许可类 化工产品）;五金产品零售;日用杂品销售;汽车零配件零售;通用设备修理;货物进出口;技术进出口;再生资 源加工;再生资源销售;再生资源回收（除生产性废旧金属）;资源再生利用技术研发;金属矿石销售;非金 属矿及制品销售;选矿（除稀土、放射性矿产、钨）;金属材料销售（除依法须经批准的项目外，自主开 展法律法规未禁止、未限制的经营活动。）。 ...

如何将政策机遇转化为实际发展动能？中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长、再生金属分会副会长兼秘书长 王吉位给出具体路径。他建议，"十五五"时期应扩大有色金属进口品种，借助数字化手段提升通关效 率；进一步扩大再生材料应用，完善相关标准体系，建立认证标识与数据溯源制度，构建减碳价值实现 机制；同时积极对接超长期特别国债、中央预算内投资、科技创新和技术改造专项再贷款及贴息等政策 支持，拓展绿色金融工具应用场景，拓宽行业融资渠道。此外，还需强化技术创新驱动，推动全球供应 链协同发展。 国家发展改革委经济体制与管理研究所研究室主任、研究员王琛伟则从制度保障层面补充说明，建设全 国统一大市场是构建高水平社会主义市场经济体制的必然要求，核心在于制度与规则统一。我国已开展 多轮市场壁垒清理行动，公开通报115个典型案例，推动市场准入负面清单动态修订，并建立公平竞争 审查制度，为企业营造更加公平、透明、可预期的发展环境。 11月18日，由中国中小企业协会主办的"2025长三角有色金属供应链创新大会"在安徽池州顺利召开。作 为工业领域的重要原材料，有色金属供应链的稳定畅通直接关联电力、电子、建筑、新能源等多个关键 行业的发展，此次大会聚 ...

对于备受关注的稳定币，香港特区政府的态度同样审慎。相关法律已经通过，牌照申请正在审批中，目 标是明年开始发放。"但我们必须明确，稳定币不是投机炒作的工具，而是旨在解决实体经济，特别是 跨境支付中的痛点。因此，初期的发牌量会非常有限，监管会十分审慎。"许正宇说。 T+1与同股不同权 今年以来，恒生指数涨幅超过30%，恒生科技指数更是录得近40%的增长，跑赢全球主要市场。在全球 资金寻求"分散投资"与"安全港"的浪潮中，香港正再次成为国际资本瞩目的焦点。 作为香港金融政策的核心决策者之一，香港特别行政区财经事务及库务局局长许正宇向21世纪经济报道 记者系统阐述了在当前宏观背景下，香港如何利用"一国两制"的独特优势，在资产管理、金融科技、商 品市场等多个领域开拓新增长点，并服务于国家战略。 在全球经济格局深刻重构的背景下，香港作为国际金融中心，正迎来新的历史性机遇与挑战。从吸引全 球家族办公室，到构建亚太区黄金交易中心；从推动资产代币化，到服务内地企业"出海"，香港的每一 步棋都备受关注。 赋能实体而非投机炒作 在全球金融中心指数（GFCI）的最新排名中，香港的金融科技实力已从2024年初的全球第14位，跃升 至全 ...

宏 观 总 量 2025 年 11 月 17 日 PPI 分析与预测 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： PPI 概况：中国 PPI 仅衡量工业品价格，采用"二分法"（生产资料主导走势）和"行业法"两套并 行的分类体系，以全面反映价格波动来源。 PPI 权重构成与核心驱动：PPI 的走势并非单纯由其权重高低决定，而是由权重与各类别价格变动幅 度共同作用的结果。从 PPI 编制方法看，中国 PPI 权重以工业行业销售产值占比为核心依据。计算机、电 气机械等行业权重虽高，但因价格稳定，对 PPI 整体影响有限。核心驱动由上游资源行业与基础材料主导 （如煤炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工），其价格波动对 PPI 有决定性影响——尽管部分行业（如煤炭）直 接权重不高，但通过行业波动性和成本传导效应产生巨大间接影响力。 PPI 走势展望：我们通过两种方法对 PPI 进行预测。第一种基于关键商品价格假设的测算显示，若煤 炭、石油、有色、黑色、化工价格维持，则 2026 年 PPI 同比增速 ...

Group 1: Agricultural Products Market - The national edible agricultural product market prices increased by 1.6% compared to the previous week [1] - The average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables reached 5.61 yuan per kilogram, rising by 7.1%, with cauliflower, spinach, and leeks increasing by 17.5%, 17.1%, and 15.5% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices for meat showed slight increases, with pork at 18.70 yuan per kilogram, up by 1.2%, while lamb and beef rose by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively [1] - The average wholesale price of six types of fruits saw minor increases, with watermelon, grapes, and bananas rising by 2.0%, 1.2%, and 0.4% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices remained stable, with rapeseed oil and flour increasing by 0.2%, while rice, soybean oil, and peanut oil decreased by 0.2% [1] - Poultry product wholesale prices experienced slight fluctuations, with eggs increasing by 0.1% and broiler chickens decreasing by 0.2% [1] - Aquatic product wholesale prices slightly declined, with carp, crucian carp, and grass carp decreasing by 2.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6% respectively [1] Group 2: Production Materials Market - Prices of non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with copper, zinc, and aluminum increasing by 2.7%, 0.8%, and 0.7% respectively [2] - Basic chemical raw material prices were predominantly up, with sulfuric acid and soda ash rising by 1.8% and 0.1%, while methanol and polypropylene decreased by 0.6% and 0.1% [2] - Steel prices showed slight increases, with rebar, high-speed wire, and ordinary medium plate priced at 3336 yuan, 3531 yuan, and 3696 yuan per ton, rising by 0.8%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] - Rubber prices experienced minor fluctuations, with natural rubber increasing by 1.1% and synthetic rubber decreasing by 1.6% [2] - Fertilizer prices remained stable, with urea increasing by 0.1% and compound fertilizer decreasing by 0.2% [2] - Coal prices showed slight fluctuations, with smokeless lump coal and coking coal priced at 1161 yuan and 1053 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.6% and 0.3%, while thermal coal decreased by 0.3% to 768 yuan per ton [2] - Finished oil wholesale prices slightly declined, with 95-octane gasoline, 92-octane gasoline, and 0-octane diesel decreasing by 2.3%, 2.3%, and 2.1% respectively [2]

有色金属 点击小程序查看报告原文 夯实国家资源安全保障，增储上产及"十五五"进一步激活中国矿企成长性 我国战略矿产资源安全保供风险上升，主要体现在大部分战略矿产资源对外依存度偏高，且中国战略矿产资源的本土供应在全球范围内的成本竞争力较 弱。在全球地缘风险系统性抬升的背景下，新一轮战略性矿产国内找矿行动于2023年初全面启动，我国矿产资源管理改革深入推进，铜铝金等行业高质量 发展成为2025年有色行业政策主旋律之一，"十五五"规划继续强调战略矿产资源开发和储备，夯实国家资源安全保障。展望未来，我们认为有色行业有望 迎来货币、需求和供应共振向上的牛市。我们认为，在有色价格有望整体上行的背景下，增储上产及"十五五"规划进一步激活中国矿企成长性，有色矿业 公司有望迎来重大发展机遇期，配置价值凸显。 我国战略矿产资源安全保供风险上升。 一是中国大部分战略矿产资源对外依存度偏高。我们的测算表明，2024年，除了稀土、锌等少数中国的优势资源 外，绝大多数矿产资源对外依存度均高于50%。二是中国战略矿产资源的本土供应在全球范围内的成本竞争力较弱。我们对中国关键大宗商品的本土供应 在全球边际成本曲线的位置进行分析，除了稀土、镍 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to engage in hedging activities to mitigate price volatility risks associated with its aluminum alloy ingot business, which is influenced by market price fluctuations due to the time lag between procurement and sales [3][8]. Summary by Sections Transaction Overview - The company's aluminum alloy ingot business involves the entire process from sorting and smelting waste aluminum resources to producing recycled aluminum alloy ingots, while also recovering by-products such as ferrous and non-ferrous metals [3]. - The primary raw materials are sourced from the Americas and Europe, leading to exposure to market price fluctuations [3]. Transaction Amount - The maximum margin and premium for hedging activities will not exceed RMB 9 million or its equivalent in other currencies [2][4]. - The maximum contract value held on any trading day will not exceed RMB 2.1 billion or its equivalent in other currencies [2][4]. Funding Source - The funding for these hedging activities will primarily come from the company's own funds [4]. Transaction Method - The hedging will involve futures related to aluminum alloy ingots and non-ferrous metals [5][8]. - Various derivatives such as options, futures, and forwards will be utilized [6][8]. - Transactions will occur on compliant public trading venues, both domestic and international [7][8]. Approval Process - The board of directors approved the hedging proposal during the fifth meeting of the sixth board on November 14, 2025, without the need for shareholder approval [10][17]. Impact on the Company - The hedging activities are expected to align with the company's operational needs, effectively controlling risks associated with product price volatility and supporting stable operational performance [15]. - The company will adhere to relevant accounting standards for the proposed hedging activities, ensuring proper reflection in financial statements [15].

Economic Overview - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 46,291 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2][3][38] - The industrial added value above designated size grew by 4.9% year-on-year in October, with a month-on-month increase of 0.17% [8][36] Retail Sales - Retail sales excluding automobiles amounted to 42,036 billion yuan in October, growing by 4.0% [2][38] - For the first ten months, total retail sales reached 412,169 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [2][38] - Online retail sales for the first ten months were 127,916 billion yuan, up 9.6%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 25.2% of total retail sales [7][38] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for the first ten months increased by 6.1% year-on-year [8][36] - In October, the mining industry saw a 4.5% increase, manufacturing grew by 4.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry rose by 5.4% [10][36] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing showed strong growth, with increases of 7.2% and 8.0% respectively [36] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to October, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 408,914 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [20][39] - Manufacturing investment increased by 2.7%, while real estate development investment fell by 14.7% [39][20] Employment and Unemployment - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in October was 5.1%, slightly lower than the previous month [3][41] - The average working hours for employees in enterprises was 48.4 hours per week [41] Price Trends - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing a previous decline [42] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to the previous month [42] Overall Economic Stability - The national economy showed overall stability in October, with ongoing transformation and upgrading efforts [3][43] - The government aims to expand domestic demand and stabilize employment, enterprises, and market expectations [43]