1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economy in 2026 will be a year of real weak recovery, with the macro - economy consolidating its bottom, exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating [79]. - Policy will remain positive, with fiscal policy staying active and the low - interest - rate environment unchanged. The central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - In asset allocation, in the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities [79]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - economic Fundamentals - **Industrial Value - added**: In the first two months, the growth rate of industrial value - added accelerated, and the high - tech manufacturing industry grew by 13.1%, 6.8 percentage points faster than all industrial enterprises above a designated size [8][11]. - **Fixed - asset Investment**: At the beginning of the year, the growth rate of fixed - asset investment rebounded. In the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, many projects that should have started last year will start in 2026 [13][16]. - **Total Retail Sales of Consumer Goods**: The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods declined. Consumers' consumption is restricted by factors such as weak income and income expectations, high household leverage, imperfect social security, and low proportion of disposable income in GDP [17][19]. - **Inflation**: Inflation rebounded, mainly due to the base effect. The prices of eggs and pigs decreased year - on - year, while the year - on - year increase in crude oil prices drove up CPI and PPI, with PPI expected to rise faster [20][23]. - **Unemployment Rate**: The overall unemployment rate increased, but the youth unemployment rate decreased. The use of AI and robots and the increase in structural unemployment make it more difficult to create new jobs [24][27][28]. - **Manufacturing PMI**: The manufacturing PMI continued to be weak. In the PMI sub - items, the purchase price of main raw materials was above the boom - bust line, the ex - factory price sub - item remained stable, and other sub - items were below the boom - bust line [29][33]. - **Production and Inventory**: Production was significantly stronger than demand, the inventory of finished products was rising, and downstream demand was weaker [34][37]. - **Construction Industry**: The PMI and important sub - items of the construction industry were at a low level in recent years, indicating the downturn of the construction industry [39]. - **Exports**: Import and export growth rates were much better than expected, and exports were very resilient. In the first two months of this year, the growth rate of exports to the US was stable, and the trade surplus in the first two months exceeded $20 billion, expected to exceed last year's level, which will support the RMB exchange rate [41][43]. - **Chip Industry**: In recent years, the effect of chip import substitution has emerged. The growth rate of chip exports is much higher than that of imports, and the scale of chip exports is increasing year by year. It is expected that China will become a net exporter of chips in 5 - 10 years [45]. - **Automobile Industry**: The production, sales, and export volume of automobiles reached new highs last year. Although the sales growth rate of domestic automobiles may face pressure due to the reduction of subsidies, the overall sales scale can probably be maintained. This year, automobile exports are expected to reach 9 - 10 million vehicles, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 10% [48]. - **Profits of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size**: The profit growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size rebounded, mainly due to the rapid recovery of profits in the upstream mining industry, but the profit margins of the mid - and downstream manufacturing and energy industries declined [49][53]. - **M1 and M1 - M2 Scissors Difference**: The growth rate of M1 rebounded, and the M1 - M2 scissors difference converged rapidly. Historically, when the M1 - M2 scissors difference turns positive, PPI will also turn positive, and the current stock market may be accompanied by a commodity bull market [54][56]. - **Real Estate**: The data reflecting the scale of real - estate under construction has returned to the level of 2005, and housing prices continued to decline month - on - month. The real - estate market is still in the bottom - building process. There is almost no demand for "speculating in real estate" among residents, and the stock market may be the only large - scale asset that can absorb a large amount of liquidity [58]. - **Deposit Transfer**: There is still room for deposit transfer. The ratio of the total market value of the stock market to household deposits is still at a low level, and the trend of households allocating more assets to the stock market has just begun [59][61]. - **Government Leverage**: The government department's leverage ratio is relatively low, and there is still room for increasing leverage. The loose fiscal policy is expected to last for a long time [64]. - **Macro - capital**: The macro - capital will remain loose for a long time. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate has remained low for a long time, and the capital interest rate still has room to decline [66][68]. - **Bank Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange**: The bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has been in a large - scale surplus, and the RMB exchange rate is likely to remain stable [69]. 3.2 China's Energy System and Industrial Chain Advantages Highlighted by the US - Israel - Iran Conflict No detailed content provided in the given text. 3.3 Commodity Outlook in 2026: Caught between Supply - driven Inflation and Recession - **Crude Oil**: The conflict between the US and Iran makes it difficult to reach a peace agreement in the short term. Even if an agreement is reached, the damaged crude - oil production facilities cannot be repaired in the short term. High oil prices will push up inflation and suppress demand, eventually leading to an economic recession, but the market has not yet priced in the economic recession [77]. - **Other Commodities**: For commodities closely related to consumption, such as pigs and eggs, there are few opportunities. Crude - oil chemical products may continue to strengthen driven by rising crude - oil prices. Precious metals and non - ferrous metals are weak due to the digestion of interest - rate hike expectations, and high - priced varieties will face great callback pressure when the market enters recession trading [79]. 3.4 Main Conclusions and Suggestions - **Macroeconomic Outlook**: The macro - economy will consolidate its bottom, with exports supporting, investment stabilizing, consumption remaining weak, prices rising moderately, and global recession risks accumulating. Policy will remain positive, and the central bank may cut interest rates ahead of other central banks when the market turns to recession trading [79]. - **Asset Allocation**: In the short term, commodities > bonds > stocks; in the medium - to - long term, stocks > bonds > commodities. Do not have high expectations for consumption - related commodities, and pay attention to crude - oil chemical products and some under - performing varieties [79].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the commodity market amidst ongoing geopolitical conflicts, particularly focusing on oil and its derivatives, while highlighting the potential investment opportunities and risks associated with these changes [3][4][10]. Group 1: Oil Market Strategy - The primary strategy suggested is to "go long on oil (and energy) while shorting base metals," based on the differentiated pricing of the same shock in the market [4]. - The current geopolitical tensions have led to a significant drop in risk appetite, which is impacting previously inflated growth narratives supported by factors like AI capital expenditure [4]. - High oil prices are expected to elevate global inflation and interest rate expectations, suppressing overall demand and manufacturing activity [4]. - The sustainability of this trading position is highly dependent on the evolution of the conflict, with market expectations potentially underestimating the duration of the conflict [4]. Group 2: Broader Commodity Market Implications - The article raises the question of whether commodities are pricing in risk appetite or balance sheet concerns, which could lead to a rapid shift in market sentiment towards fears of a global recession [5]. - The ongoing geopolitical conflict is creating independent trend opportunities in agricultural sectors, particularly driven by U.S. biodiesel policies that are expected to increase domestic soybean oil consumption by over 30% by 2026 [6][7]. - The disruption in the international fertilizer supply chain, especially nitrogen fertilizers, is contributing to rising food prices, providing inflationary support for global grain prices [7]. Group 3: Japan's Economic Vulnerability - Japan's low energy self-sufficiency and high dependence on Middle Eastern oil make it particularly vulnerable to geopolitical events that could structurally raise oil prices [8][9]. - The conflict places Japan in a challenging "policy trilemma," where it must balance combating inflation, maintaining government bond market stability, and preventing a collapse of the yen [9]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The focus in the oil market has shifted from initial emotional shocks to precise calculations regarding the duration of the conflict and real supply shortages [10]. - The article outlines two extreme scenarios: a prolonged conflict leading to a significant supply gap, or a sudden de-escalation that would not synchronize with the recovery of oil logistics and production [11]. - Recent structural changes in the market, such as the expansion of domestic crude oil futures delivery, aim to mitigate risks associated with contract delivery and potential defaults [12]. - The current commodity market presents clear trading signals, with a recommendation to hedge tail risks through out-of-the-money call options on oil, while also considering long positions in the oil and chemical processing sectors once geopolitical tensions ease [12].

Group 1 - The report discusses the impact of rising oil prices on inflation readings, highlighting that industrial production recovery and geopolitical factors have led to significant increases in PPI, which supports inflation expectations [10][14] - The report draws parallels between Japan's experience of overcoming long-term deflation and China's current inflation dynamics, emphasizing the role of external shocks and internal economic adjustments [10][15] - Japan's CPI has shown a significant upward trend since mid-2021, with core CPI reaching 2% in April 2022 and remaining around 1.6% as of February 2026, indicating a shift from deflation to sustained inflation [19][20] Group 2 - The report identifies two core transmission obstacles for China in achieving a full price recovery: the lack of sustained price increases in the food sector and downward pressure on disposable income and employment [10][14] - Recent positive changes in China's agricultural sector, particularly regarding pig prices and income policies, suggest potential for improved inflation dynamics [10][15] - The report anticipates that the bond market may remain in a volatile state in the second quarter, with a steepening yield curve and potential trading opportunities in the long end [10][11] Group 3 - Japan's experience illustrates that external inflationary pressures can catalyze internal economic adjustments, leading to a positive feedback loop of wages, prices, and profits [24][32] - The report notes that Japan's labor market dynamics, including increased participation rates among women and older workers, have contributed to rising wage expectations and enhanced bargaining power for labor unions [33][37] - The successful transfer of rising costs to consumers in Japan has been facilitated by government support and a shift in public sentiment towards accepting price increases, which contrasts with previous deflationary mindsets [38][40]

Group 1: PPI Trends - Recent PPI has risen significantly, from -3.6% in July 2025 to -0.9% in February 2026, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% in January and February 2026, the highest since 2024[1] - The main contributor to the recent PPI increase is the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry, contributing 0.36 and 0.32 percentage points to the month-on-month PPI in January and February 2026, respectively[1][12] - High-frequency data suggests that March PPI may reach approximately +0.6%, likely driven by the petrochemical chain due to rising oil prices[2][19] Group 2: Oil Price Impact - The cost transmission effect of oil is approximately five times greater than that of non-ferrous metals, indicating that oil price increases will have a more significant impact on downstream prices[4][38] - If oil prices rise to $160 per barrel, the PPI is expected to increase by around 5.0% year-on-year in 2026, with CPI at approximately 2.0%[5][46] - In a scenario where oil prices stabilize at $120 per barrel, the PPI is projected to be 3.4% year-on-year, with CPI at 1.6%[6][47] Group 3: Future Projections - The average month-on-month PPI from July 2025 to February 2026 is approximately 0.13%, indicating that maintaining a month-on-month PPI above -0.08% for the next 10 months could lead to a positive year-on-year PPI in 2026[3][32] - If geopolitical conflicts persist, the upward pressure on PPI may increase, further enhancing the duration and magnitude of inflationary trends[4][38] - In a scenario where oil prices decrease to $80 per barrel, the PPI is expected to be around 1.8% year-on-year, with CPI at 1.4%[6][48]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline, with all three major indices falling, influenced by the overnight drop in US stocks and escalating tensions in the Middle East. The Shanghai Composite Index briefly fell below the 4000-point mark before a slight rebound at the close, indicating weakened market sentiment. Over 4900 stocks declined, reflecting a significant loss effect, with focus shifting to defensive sectors like oil and gas, and coal [1] Geopolitical Impact - The uncertainty surrounding the oil transportation route in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to affect the price trends of crude oil and the US dollar in the near term. The market's risk appetite will largely depend on whether there is a substantial easing of tensions in the Middle East [1] Future Market Outlook - The ongoing geopolitical uncertainty may influence short-term market dynamics, particularly if crude oil prices rise significantly, which could heighten market concerns and impact A-share sector rotations. The sustained strength of the petrochemical sector may suppress preferences for technology growth sectors, leading to a slower upward trend for indices while individual stock performance lags behind the market [1] Long-term Trends - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term upward trend for A-shares remains intact, supported by increased household savings entering the market and a recovery in the performance of A-share listed companies [1] Sector Focus - As March approaches, marking the annual report season, high-performing sectors will attract market attention. Notable sectors include: 1. AI hardware, with a confirmed industry trend and increasing token usage for major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] 2. Semiconductor localization, focusing on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] 3. New energy materials benefiting from rapid growth in domestic and overseas storage demand, showing signs of supply shortages and price increases, with a continued upward trend expected through 2026 [2] 4. Price-increasing cycles in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, with anticipated strong annual report performances due to sustained price increases [2]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index initially rose above 100 due to global central banks' inflation - fighting stance and market bets on Fed rate hikes. Later, it weakened as oil prices dropped, and global risk appetite improved. Domestically, the economy and inflation in China from January to February were better than expected, but policy goals and intensity in 2026 are lower than in 2025. Short - term market trading focuses on Middle - East geopolitical risks and the Fed rate decision. Overall, short - term asset performance is volatile, and caution is advised [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro and Finance - **Global Situation**: The US dollar index and US Treasury yields weakened, and global risk appetite improved due to factors such as potential sanctions relief on Iranian oil and a "pause" in Israeli air strikes on Iranian energy facilities. - **Chinese Economy**: From January to February, China's economy rebounded beyond expectations, with exports far exceeding expectations and inflation continuing to recover. - **Policy**: The government's work report in 2026 has lower development goals and policy intensity compared to 2025. - **Asset Performance**: Short - term stock indices, government bonds, and most commodities are in a volatile state. The energy - chemical sector is slightly stronger, and short - term cautious operations are recommended [3]. Stock Indices - Affected by sectors like precious metals and industrial metals, the domestic stock market fell sharply. In the short term, stock indices will fluctuate due to better - than - expected domestic economic data but intensified geopolitical shocks and a potentially hawkish Fed rate decision. Short - term cautious waiting is advisable [4]. Precious Metals - On Thursday night, the precious metals market declined significantly. Later, as the US dollar weakened, the decline narrowed. Short - term precious metals will fluctuate, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended [5][6]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel spot and futures markets remained weak on Thursday. Although costs have fallen, high oil prices still support costs. Steel inventories have peaked and declined, and production has increased. It is recommended to view the market as range - bound and beware of the risk of a sharp fall after a rise [7]. - **Iron Ore**: On Thursday, iron ore spot and futures prices fell slightly. Demand may recover slightly, and supply is in the off - season. The short - term upside of iron ore prices is limited, and the risk of a sharp fall after a rise should be noted [7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese fell slightly, and the futures trends diverged. The supply and demand of both are in a state of change, and their futures prices are recommended to be treated with a range - bound mindset [8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Since 2026, copper prices have been in a high - level shock. The core contradiction lies in the mine end. Although copper mines are tight, extreme shortages are unlikely. Refined copper production is growing rapidly, but high prices suppress downstream demand, and inventories are accumulating [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Thursday, the non - ferrous metal sector fell sharply. Domestic aluminum supply is rigid, and inventories are accumulating. Overseas supply is tight due to the Middle - East situation, resulting in a large price difference between domestic and overseas markets [9]. - **Zinc**: Domestic zinc ore processing fees have changed, and smelting production is at a relatively high level. Demand is not optimistic, and inventories are accumulating seasonally [10]. - **Lead**: The production of primary and secondary lead is rising seasonally, while demand has entered the off - season. Inventories at home and abroad are at high levels [11]. - **Nickel**: The core issue is at the mine end. The RKAB quota in Indonesia has declined, and the supply of MHP may decrease. Nickel prices have support below but limited upside due to high inventories [11]. - **Tin**: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is accelerating, and smelting enterprises are resuming work. Demand is highly differentiated, and inventories are increasing [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have led to significant damage to energy facilities, but then the situation showed signs of easing. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate significantly [13][14]. - **Asphalt**: Asphalt prices followed the rise and then fall of oil prices. Terminal demand is showing negative feedback, but low inventories provide short - term support. Supply will remain low, and prices will follow oil price fluctuations [14]. - **PX**: The polyester sector did not follow the sharp rise in oil prices. PX prices fell slightly due to downstream negative feedback, but the tight supply situation continues. The future trend depends on oil prices [14]. - **PTA**: PTA prices fell slightly. Although inventory pressure has decreased, upstream strength has squeezed downstream profits, leading to production cuts. If oil prices remain strong, the cost - driven logic will continue, but negative feedback may limit the upside [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some port inventories have been pre - sold for export, keeping the price high. Downstream demand is under pressure, but exports may create upside space [15]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices fluctuate significantly following the energy - chemical sector. Downstream production cuts may limit the upside, but it will remain relatively strong in the short term [16]. - **Methanol**: The inland methanol market has risen, and port inventories are decreasing. The market is affected by the US - Iran conflict, and the overall pattern is strong, with prices expected to show a pulsed upward trend [16][17]. - **PP**: The price of PP has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply has decreased more significantly, supporting the price. The key factor is the navigation situation in the Strait of Hormuz [17]. - **LLDPE**: The price of LLDPE has risen, and production enterprise inventories have decreased. Supply is tight, and although downstream profit margins are compressed, the price remains firm. Attention should be paid to the development of the US - Iran conflict [18]. - **Urea**: The domestic urea price has weakened slightly. Port inventories have decreased, and daily production is high. Multiple factors are intertwined, and the price is expected to return to a range - bound state [18]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, soybean futures rose slightly. The increase in oil prices has boosted international grain and oil prices. US soybean export sales have decreased [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: In March in China, the arrival of imported soybeans has decreased seasonally, and soybean and soybean meal inventories are decreasing, supporting the price of soybean meal. The expected increase in the supply of rapeseed has suppressed the sentiment of going long on rapeseed meal [19][20]. - **Oils and Fats**: Overnight, soybean futures in the CBOT rose slightly. Domestic soybean oil prices are supported by seasonal inventory reduction, while rapeseed oil trading is light, and palm oil prices may be supported by inventory decline [20]. - **Corn**: The sales of corn in production areas have slowed down, and prices are temporarily stable. However, alternative grains and potential rice auctions may limit the price increase and trading sentiment [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig - breeding industry is in a period of capacity adjustment. Although demand is improving marginally, it is still in the off - season. The risk of a further decline in pig prices exists in the short term, and there is also risk in the futures market [21].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a divergence, with major indices generally declining, particularly the ChiNext and CSI 500, while the Shanghai 50 and small-cap indices have seen relatively smaller declines [4]. Group 1: Important Events Review - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued recommendations to prevent security risks associated with open-source AI [5]. - The National People's Congress concluded its fourth session, passing several resolutions and laws [5]. - The Governor of the People's Bank of China indicated that the central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next phase [5]. Group 2: Inflation and Investment Strategy - Concerns about "stagflation" are rising overseas, prompting a shift in investment logic from "pro-cyclical growth" to "anti-inflation, stable growth, and high certainty" [6]. - Recommended core holdings include upstream resource products (oil, coal, non-ferrous metals, agricultural products) and essential consumer goods (food and beverages, pharmaceuticals, essential retail) [6]. - It is advised to also consider sectors benefiting from independent prosperity and policy support, such as hard technology (semiconductors, aerospace, high-end equipment manufacturing, AI computing) and government consumption (traditional and emerging infrastructure) [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The external disturbances are expected to gradually weaken, making market performance more promising [7]. - The overall tone of the National Two Sessions is stable, which is likely to lay a solid policy foundation for stock market growth [7]. - The upcoming month will see a concentration of data and policy validation, which is expected to support economic and corporate profit data in the capital market [7].

Core Viewpoint - The overall trend of industrial producer prices (PPI) in China is showing a narrowing decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.9% in February, which is a 0.5 percentage point improvement from the previous month, marking the third consecutive month of narrowing decline [4]. Group 1: PPI Trends - In February, the PPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [4]. - The average PPI for January-February decreased by 1.2% compared to the same period last year [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing PPI - The narrowing decline in PPI is attributed to several factors, including expanded demand in certain domestic industries, growth in new economic drivers, and rising prices of some international bulk commodities [4]. - The demand for high-end equipment has increased due to industrial upgrades, leading to a 7.7% year-on-year price increase in aircraft manufacturing in February, closely related to the development of domestic commercial aviation [4]. - The development of artificial intelligence and green transformation has also driven price increases, with electronic components and specialized materials rising by 4.9% year-on-year, and biomass fuel processing prices increasing by 3.2% [4]. Group 3: Market Competition and Price Improvement - Optimized market competition has led to price improvements in certain industries, with the price declines in cement manufacturing and black metal smelting narrowing by 1.5 and 0.3 percentage points, respectively [5]. - The prices in the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry increased by 22.1% year-on-year, significantly contributing to the recovery of industrial producer prices [5]. Group 4: External Factors and Future Outlook - Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to fluctuations in international oil prices, raising market concerns; however, China's energy supply security is strong, providing a solid foundation to cope with external market volatility [6]. - The government aims to continue expanding domestic demand, optimizing supply, and promoting the construction of a unified national market to facilitate the return of industrial prices to a reasonable range and improve economic circulation [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - From March 9th to March 13th, the Middle - East situation continued to impact the market. The US February CPI year - on - year growth rate was 2.4%, in line with expectations. The US dollar index continued its weekly upward trend, stocks and bonds declined, and commodities rose. Globally and in China, in terms of performance, commodities > bonds > stocks. In the short term, attention should be paid to whether the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes [3][6][22] Summary by Directory 1. Global Major Asset Overall Performance: Stocks and Bonds Declined, Commodities Rose - **Global Stock Market Overview**: The expectation of a US dollar interest - rate cut cooled, and major global stock markets generally declined. The Asia - Pacific region had the largest decline, emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index declined weekly. For example, the MSCI Asia - Pacific region dropped 2.47% and the Indian SENSEX30 fell 5.52% [8][11] - **Global Bond Market Overview**: The Federal Reserve entered a quiet period, market expectations of an interest - rate cut cooled, and medium - and long - term US Treasury yields generally rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 13BP to 4.28%. The bond market declined weekly, and globally, high - yield bonds > government bonds > credit bonds [15] - **Global Foreign Exchange Market Overview**: Affected by rising interest rates and high market uncertainty, the US dollar index rose weekly. Major non - US currencies generally depreciated against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate was mainly volatile. The US dollar index rose 1.56% [16] - **Global Commodity Market Overview**: Due to continuous geopolitical disturbances, international oil prices rose significantly weekly. International gold and silver prices declined significantly, and the prices of major non - ferrous metals and agricultural products showed mixed trends. For example, Brent crude oil rose 11.33% and LME silver fell 0.74% [18][19] 2. Domestic Major Asset Performance: Stock Market Diverged, Bond Market Oscillated Weakly, Commodities Rose - **Domestic Stock Market Overview**: International events continued to impact the domestic equity market. The major broad - based A - share indexes showed mixed trends. The average daily trading volume of the two markets declined compared to the previous week. The ChiNext Index had the highest increase. In terms of sectors, coal and construction led the gains, while military and petrochemical sectors performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.70% weekly [23] - **Domestic Bond Market Overview**: From March 9th to March 13th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 25.11 billion yuan. The capital market was relatively balanced. The bond market performed weakly weekly. Overall, corporate bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [24] - **Domestic Commodity Market Overview**: The domestic commodity market rose weekly. Among major commodity sectors, energy and chemical sectors led the gains, while precious metals performed poorly. For example, the Nanhua Energy Index rose 14.12% and the Nanhua Precious Metals Index fell 1.52% [26][27] 3. Major Asset Price Outlook - In the short term, the tense situation in the Middle East may continue. Attention should be paid to whether the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting will have a significant impact on the prices of major asset classes [31]

Economic Performance - In January-February 2026, exports increased by 21.8% year-on-year, significantly higher than December 2025's 6.6% and the annual value of 5.5%[2] - Industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year, surpassing December 2025's 5.2% and the annual value of 5.9%[2] - Fixed asset investment rose by 1.8% year-on-year, compared to December 2025's -16% and the annual value of -3.8%[3] Sectoral Insights - High-tech industry added value increased by 13.1% year-on-year, up from 9.4% in the previous year[4] - Cement production turned positive with a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, compared to -6.9% last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.8% year-on-year, but were lower than the annual growth of 3.7%[5] Real Estate and Investment - Real estate sales area decreased by 13.5% year-on-year, an improvement from December 2025's -15.5%[7] - Real estate investment fell by 11.1% year-on-year, better than the previous year's -17.2%[9] - Infrastructure investment surged by 11.4% year-on-year, contrasting with last year's -1.5%[7] Employment and Consumer Behavior - Urban unemployment rate in February 2026 was 5.3%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year[9] - Consumer retail growth excluding automobiles and fuel was 4.7%, higher than last year's 3.7%[5] - Notable retail growth in categories such as tobacco and alcohol (19.1%) and communication equipment (17.8%)[6]