本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 217.84 5.66 225.51 -7.67 244.76 -26.92 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.83 0.04 90.69 0.14 89.13 1.70 表观需求量 219.91 0.72 248.68 -28.77 235.80 -15.89 钢联建材成交周均值 9.72 -0.02 10.17 -0.45 11.83 -2.11 总库存 549.00 -2.07 581.05 -32.05 784.62 -235.62 厂内库存 185.60 3.28 186.46 -0.86 206.38 -20.78 社会库存 363.40 -5.35 394.59 -31.19 578.24 -214.84 螺纹钢周度数据（20250627） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 400 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 螺纹钢周产量 2025 2024 2023 2022 2021 70 75 80 85 90 95 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 1 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2510 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation shows seasonal weakness, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is operating weakly. Supply has increased slightly while demand continues its seasonal weakness. The supply - demand situation has not improved. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. With relatively low inventory and minor real - world contradictions, the price trend is expected to remain in a volatile bottom - seeking state, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [3]. Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are judged as volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the fundamental seasonal weakness causing steel prices to be under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weak. Construction steel mills have increased production, and rebar output has risen again, but the increase is not large. Demand remains weak, with the weekly apparent demand slightly decreasing and high - frequency transactions remaining sluggish. The supply - demand situation has not improved, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively low inventory means minor real - world contradictions, and the price is expected to be in a volatile bottom - seeking state, with demand performance being a key factor [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. It is recommended to focus on the support at the MA5 line, with the core logic being that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of rebar 2510 are shock, shock, and shock - biased upward respectively. The reference suggestion is to focus on the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world contradictions are limited and steel prices are stabilizing in a shock pattern. The calculation of price changes and criteria for different trends are also explained [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices remained stable. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has seasonally weakened. Construction steel mills have increased production, with the weekly output of rebar slightly increasing but still at a relatively low level, and the supply change is not significant. Meanwhile, rebar demand has seasonally weakened, with weekly apparent demand weakly stable and high - frequency transactions being sluggish. The weak demand is pressuring steel prices. In general, rebar supply is rising while demand continues its seasonal weakness, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are still under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory and limited real - world contradictions. The short - term trend will maintain a low - level shock pattern, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues its seasonal weakness. The weekly output of rebar has increased by 4610 tons week - on - week, still at a low level in the same period. Considering the good profit per ton of the variety, there is room for an increase in the future. The positive factor is the diversion of billets, and the supply runs relatively stably. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar continues its seasonal weakness, with a slight week - on - week decline in weekly performance and low - frequency transactions. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, continuing to suppress steel prices. Currently, supply has rebounded again while demand is weak, and the fundamentals of rebar have not improved, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The positive factor is the low - level reduction of inventory, with little real - world contradiction. In the short term, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the production situation of construction steel mills [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Supply - The weekly output of rebar is 2121800 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 4610 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 133300 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 183500 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 90.79%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.21 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.10 percentage points, and a year - on - year increase of 1.03 percentage points [1] Demand - The apparent demand for rebar is 2191900 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 7800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 294900 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 165800 tons. The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 9740 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 220 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 430 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 1450 tons [1] Inventory - The total inventory of rebar is 5510700 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 70100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 299800 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2245900 tons. The in - plant inventory is 1823200 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 5700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 41400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 202500 tons. The social inventory is 3687500 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 64400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 258400 tons, and a year - on - year decrease of 2043400 tons [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 基本面未改善，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性弱势，建筑钢厂有所提产，螺纹钢周产量环比微增，依旧处于相对 低位，关注后续持续性。与此同时，螺纹需求延续季节性走弱，周度表需弱稳运行，而高频成交表 现低迷，弱势需求仍将抑制钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供应回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，基本面未 见好转，钢价仍将 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 关注 MA5 一线支撑 | 现实矛盾不大，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 观点参考 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，建筑钢厂有所转产，螺纹产量持续下降并降至相对低位，供应压力 在缓解；不过，螺纹需求同样季节性走弱，周度表需环比减量，而高频成交表现低迷，继续抑制淡 季钢价。目前来看，螺纹钢供需双弱局面未 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线压力 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价低位震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱，建筑钢厂转产，螺纹产量环比下降并降至低位，供应压力有所缓解；而 螺纹需求延续季节性走弱，周度表需走弱，高频成交低迷，弱势需求承压钢价。总之，螺纹供需格 局表现不佳，淡季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是现实 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillatory, the medium - term view is downward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2] - The steel price is expected to continue the low - level oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is downward, and the intraday is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA10 line, with the core logic of a weakly stable supply - demand pattern and low - level oscillatory steel prices. There are also explanations for time - period definitions and calculation methods of price changes [2] Market Driving Logic - The strong rebound of coking coal boosts the market, and the ferrous metals rise collectively. The supply - demand pattern of rebar changes little. The weekly output decreases but remains at a relatively high level this year with weak sustainability, and the supply is expected to run stably. The weekly apparent demand rebounds slightly, while the high - frequency transactions are at a low level, and both are at low levels in the same period in recent years. There is still a high possibility of seasonal weakening in the future, and the demand side is weak, dragging down the fundamentals of rebar. The relatively positive factor is the low inventory, which gives elasticity to steel prices [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 6 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 下跌 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 利空因素发酵，钢价承压走弱 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 假期钢材现货弱稳运行，而螺纹钢供需格局变化不大，周产量环比下降，但依旧是年内相对高 位，供应压力未缓解；而周度表需有所增加，而高频成交维持低位，需求端表现平稳，但季节性走 弱预期未退，螺纹基本面未见改善，叠加钢铁关税升级扰动，钢价继续承压偏弱运行，关注需求表 现情况。 （ ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Supply has a slight contraction but low sustainability, demand is stable with a seasonal weakening expectation, and fundamental contradictions are accumulating. Steel prices continue to be under pressure. With inventory at a low level, short - term negative factors dominate, and steel prices will continue the weak bottom - seeking trend. Attention should be paid to demand changes [2]. 3. Summary by Category Supply - Rebar weekly production was 225.51 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.97 tons. Supply has contracted but remains at a high level this year. Due to good steel profits, production cuts are unlikely to continue, and the supply contraction is limited [1][2]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.63 percentage points [1]. Demand - Rebar weekly apparent demand was 248.68 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.55 tons. High - frequency transactions were sluggish. Both are at low levels in recent years and will seasonally weaken later. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged, which easily puts pressure on steel prices [1][2]. - The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions was 10.36, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 [1]. Inventory - Total inventory was 581.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23.17 tons, a decrease of 121.28 tons from the end of last month, and a decrease of 192.62 tons compared with the same period. Factory inventory was 186.46 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.30 tons. Social inventory was 394.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 21.87 tons [1].