投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 26 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 旺季成色不足，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局边际改善，螺纹周产量环比微增，依旧位于年内低位，但库存相对偏高，利好 效应不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需求高频指标有所回升，节前需求改善，但仍是近年来同期低位，且 下游行业未好转，旺季成色不足。总之，节前螺纹供需格局迎改善，但下游表现依然低迷，需求隐 忧未退，基本面 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 19 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2601 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 基本面迎改善，钢价延续震荡 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局有所改善，螺纹周产量延续回落，旺季减产力度有待跟踪，且库存低位显著回 升，供应利好效应不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需求迎来改善，高频需求指标低位回升，但下游行业并 未好转，旺季需求成色不足。目前来看，螺纹钢供需格局虽有所改善，但下游 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 9 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面未改善，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 市场情绪回暖，夜盘钢材期价震荡企稳，但螺纹钢供需格局并未好转，建筑钢厂生产积极，螺 纹产量回升并至年内高位，供应压力有所增加。与此同时，螺纹钢高频需求指标虽低位回升，但仍 是近年来同期低位，且下游行业未见改善，需求改善持续性不强。目前来看，供需双增局面下螺纹 钢基本面表现疲弱，产业矛盾持续累积，低库存格局已变，钢价仍易承压，相对利好的是成本抬升 与旺季预期，预计螺纹钢延续震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研 ...

200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 数据来源：MYSTEEL 宝城期货金融研究所 2025 2024 2023 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 周度产量 214.65 -5.80 211.06 3.59 160.60 54.05 高炉产能利用率（%） 90.25 0.03 90.24 0.01 84.30 5.95 表观需求量 194.80 4.86 203.41 -8.61 199.34 -4.54 钢联建材成交周均值 9.51 -0.72 9.41 0.10 12.20 -2.69 总库存 607.04 19.85 546.29 60.75 651.82 -44.78 厂内库存 174.53 2.27 162.15 12.38 170.50 4.03 社会库存 432.51 17.58 384.14 48.37 481.32 -48.81 螺纹钢周度数据（20250822） 供给 需求 库存 150 200 250 300 350 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 供需格局走弱，钢价承压运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 周末钢材现货稳中有升，成交表现一般，相应的螺纹钢供需格局延续季节性走弱，库存大幅增 加，建筑钢厂生产趋稳，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，但品种吨钢利润尚存，生产积极性未退，后续存 有增量空间。与此同时，螺纹钢需求明显走弱，高频指标均环比下降，而下游行业并无好转，淡季 需求弱势特 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. With stable production of construction steel mills, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, but the supply pressure is still likely to increase due to good profit per ton. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, with both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions at low levels in recent years. The off - season fundamentals continue to deteriorate, inventory has increased substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. Although the recent cost increase limits the downward space, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Data Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 220.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased by 54.08 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.61 percentage points [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 189.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.85 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union's building materials transactions was 10.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18. Both are at low levels in recent years, and the off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 587.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.51 tons. The in - plant inventory was 172.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.06 tons, and the social inventory was 414.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.45 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased by 103.37 tons, the in - plant inventory decreased by 9.25 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 94.12 tons [1].

| 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA5 一线压力 | 基本面弱势运行，钢价承压回落 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 15 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 市场情绪趋弱，黑色金属集体下行，且螺纹钢供需格局明显走弱，库存大幅增加，建筑钢厂生 产趋稳，螺纹钢周产量环比微降，而品种吨钢利润尚存，生产积极性未退，后续存有增量空间。与 此同时，螺纹钢需求再度走弱，高频指标均环比下降，且下游行业并无好转，淡季需求弱势未退。 目前来看 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2] Market Driving Logic - The implementation of the production - restriction expectation is less than expected, and the raw materials have strengthened again, driving up steel prices. However, in the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The production of construction steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased significantly. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the improvement in off - season demand is of questionable sustainability. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025 年 8 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹 2510 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 关注 MA20 一线支撑 | 供需格局弱稳，钢价震荡运行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 行情驱动逻辑 螺纹钢供需格局偏弱运行，建筑钢厂生产趋弱，周产量环比下降，供但品种吨钢利润较好，供 应收缩持续性不强。与此同时，螺纹钢需求再度走弱，高频指标环比减量，并位于近年来同期低 位，淡季需求表现疲弱，继续承压钢价。总之，低库存格局下螺纹现实矛盾不大， ...