螺纹钢周度数据（20260109） 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 前 3 后 3 后 6 后 9 后 12 后 15 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 春 节 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 周 春 节 周 春 节 周 春 节 周 春 节 周 70 75 80 85 春 节 前 15 周 春 节 前 12 周 春 节 前 9 周 春 节 前 6 周 春 节 前 3 周 春 节 当 周 春 节 后 3 周 春 节 后 6 周 春 节 后 9 周 春 节 后 12 周 春 节 后 15 周 20 钢联建材成交周度均值（农历） 2026 2025 2024 2023 2022 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778号 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值（农历） 同期变化 周度产量 191.04 2.82 188.22 2.82 218.73 -27.69 高炉产能利用率（%） 86.04 0.78 85.26 0.78 86.13 -0.09 表观需求量 174. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 will be in a low - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively, due to a weakly stable supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall outlook of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern, where steel prices move in an oscillating manner. The supply is at a relatively low level and rising with limited increase, while the demand is weakening [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply is rising from a low level but with limited increase and remains at a relatively low position, providing support for steel prices, yet there is an expectation of further increase. Demand is running weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and at the lowest level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support, so the subsequent trend will continue to be in low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]

12月以来，螺纹钢期现价格呈现低位震荡态势，主力合约在3030~3180元/吨区间波动，近期重回区间上 沿。现货价格同步跟随，但受下游需求进入淡季影响，跟涨力度有限。 短期利多因素发酵 近期螺纹钢期价重回震荡区间上沿，主要得益于三方面利多因素支撑：其一，政策预期再度升温，12 月"反内卷"交易逻辑持续强化，相关品种强势上涨，提振商品市场整体情绪，进而带动黑色金属板块低 位回升。其二，原料价格趋于稳定，其中铁矿石价格表现尤为强劲，从成本端助力钢价走势。其三，低 供应背景下，库存压力明显缓解。 免责声明：Mysteel发布的原创及转载内容，仅供客户参考，不作为决策建议。原创内容版权归Mysteel所有，转载需取得Mysteel书面授 权，且Mysteel保留对任何侵权行为和有悖原创内容原意的引用行为进行追究的权利。转载内容来源于网络，目的在于传递更多信息，方 便学习与交流，并不代表Mysteel赞同其观点及对其真实性、完整性负责。 具体来看，一方面，短流程钢厂利润改善显著。据钢联统计，77家建材独立电弧炉钢厂中，亏损企业占 比仅14.05%。即期成本核算下，部分地区平电生产已实现盈利。利润改善叠加厂库压力不大，短 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will fluctuate at a low level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are all expected to be in a state of weak fluctuation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is volatile, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the steel price fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The weekend spot price of rebar decreased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has dropped significantly, and the supply has reached a low level, which supports the steel price. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running weakly at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved. Demand continues to decline seasonally, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is at a low level, providing support for the price, but the demand is also weakening. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Rebar 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season is lackluster, and steel prices will continue to oscillate [2]. - Before the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but the downstream performance remains sluggish, demand concerns persist, and the improvement in fundamentals is questionable. The upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season lacks luster and steel prices continue to oscillate. Specific rules for calculating price changes and defining trends are also provided [2]. 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has marginally improved. Weekly rebar production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a low level for the year, but inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. High - frequency demand indicators for rebar have rebounded, and demand has improved before the holiday, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the peak season is lackluster. In general, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved before the holiday, but the downstream performance is still sluggish, demand concerns remain, the improvement in fundamentals is questionable, the upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but downstream industries have not improved, and demand concerns remain. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is sideways, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways and weak. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are improving, and steel prices continue to fluctuate [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Weekly rebar production has continued to decline, and the intensity of production cuts during the peak season needs to be tracked. Inventory has significantly increased from a low level, so the positive effect of supply is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators rising from a low level, but downstream industries have not improved, and the demand during the peak season is lackluster. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to demand performance [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The steel futures prices stabilized overnight due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. With increased supply pressure and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the steel price is still under pressure. It is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: oscillating weakly; medium - term: oscillating; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the unimproved fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has improved, and the steel futures prices stabilized overnight. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The production of construction steel mills is active, the rebar output has risen to a high for the year, and the supply pressure has increased. The high - frequency demand indicators of rebar have rebounded from a low level but are still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the demand improvement is not sustainable. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the industrial contradictions are accumulating. The low - inventory pattern has changed, but the cost increase and peak - season expectations are relatively positive factors. The rebar is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].

Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts is to be tracked. Demand is at a low level, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 48,600 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency daily transactions remaining sluggish. The steel price is under pressure, but the rising cost may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 35,900 tons. The annual - on - annual increase was 540,500 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points, and an annual - on - annual increase of 5.95 percentage points [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 86,100 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 45,400 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union building materials transactions was 95,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 26,900 tons [1] Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 607,500 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 447,800 tons. The in - plant inventory was 1.7453 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,800 tons, and an annual - on - annual increase of 40,300 tons. The social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 175,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 483,700 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 488,100 tons [1]