Workflow
螺纹钢供需格局
icon
Search documents
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年9月26日)-20250926
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-26 02:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Rebar 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season is lackluster, and steel prices will continue to oscillate [2]. - Before the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but the downstream performance remains sluggish, demand concerns persist, and the improvement in fundamentals is questionable. The upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season lacks luster and steel prices continue to oscillate. Specific rules for calculating price changes and defining trends are also provided [2]. 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has marginally improved. Weekly rebar production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a low level for the year, but inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. High - frequency demand indicators for rebar have rebounded, and demand has improved before the holiday, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the peak season is lackluster. In general, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved before the holiday, but the downstream performance is still sluggish, demand concerns remain, the improvement in fundamentals is questionable, the upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年9月22日)-20250922
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-22 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is improving, and steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line and the demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term view is "sideways", the medium - term view is "sideways", and the intraday view is "sideways with a weak bias". The reference suggestion is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is improving and steel prices are stabilizing with fluctuations [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Futures price increases have boosted the market, and steel spot prices rose slightly on the weekend with average trading volume. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Rebar production has been continuously declining, but the intensity of production cuts needs to be monitored, and inventory is at a high level for the same period, so the positive effect of supply contraction is not strong. However, rebar demand has improved during the peak season, with high - frequency indicators rising from low levels, but the downstream industries have not improved, and the quality of the peak season is still in doubt. In general, the fundamentals of rebar have marginally improved under the situation of weak supply and increasing demand, but the downstream has not improved, and demand concerns remain. The improvement intensity needs to be monitored. The relatively positive factor is the increase in costs. Under the game of multiple and short factors, steel prices are expected to remain stable with fluctuations [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报(2025年9月19日)-20250919
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but downstream industries have not improved, and demand concerns remain. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to demand performance [2][3] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is sideways, medium - term is sideways, and intraday is sideways and weak. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are improving, and steel prices continue to fluctuate [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved. Weekly rebar production has continued to decline, and the intensity of production cuts during the peak season needs to be tracked. Inventory has significantly increased from a low level, so the positive effect of supply is not strong. Meanwhile, rebar demand has improved, with high - frequency demand indicators rising from a low level, but downstream industries have not improved, and the demand during the peak season is lackluster. With the cost rising, steel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate under the game of multiple and short factors, and attention should be paid to demand performance [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250903
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 01:25
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - The steel futures prices stabilized overnight due to improved market sentiment, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. With increased supply pressure and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the steel price is still under pressure. It is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, short - term: oscillating weakly; medium - term: oscillating; intraday: oscillating weakly. The view is to focus on the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the unimproved fundamentals and the pressure on steel prices [2]. Market Driving Logic - The market sentiment has improved, and the steel futures prices stabilized overnight. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. The production of construction steel mills is active, the rebar output has risen to a high for the year, and the supply pressure has increased. The high - frequency demand indicators of rebar have rebounded from a low level but are still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, and the demand improvement is not sustainable. The fundamentals of rebar are weak, and the industrial contradictions are accumulating. The low - inventory pattern has changed, but the cost increase and peak - season expectations are relatively positive factors. The rebar is expected to continue the oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢周度数据-20250822
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-22 01:54
Report Highlights 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar remains weak with continuous inventory accumulation. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 58,000 tons week - on - week, but the sustainability of production cuts is to be tracked. Demand is at a low level, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 48,600 tons week - on - week, and high - frequency daily transactions remaining sluggish. The steel price is under pressure, but the rising cost may limit the downside space. It is expected that the steel price will continue to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 2.1465 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 58,000 tons and a month - on - month increase of 35,900 tons. The annual - on - annual increase was 540,500 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.25%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points, and an annual - on - annual increase of 5.95 percentage points [1] Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 1.948 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 48,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 86,100 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 45,400 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union building materials transactions was 95,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,000 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 26,900 tons [1] Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 6.0704 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 198,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 607,500 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 447,800 tons. The in - plant inventory was 1.7453 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 123,800 tons, and an annual - on - annual increase of 40,300 tons. The social inventory was 4.3251 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 175,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 483,700 tons, and an annual - on - annual decrease of 488,100 tons [1]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250818
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-18 01:00
Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and steel prices are under pressure [2]. - In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and inventory increase, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken. During the off - season, steel prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the significant increase in costs and the relatively small real - world contradictions under low inventory, the downside space is limited. The short - term trend will continue the weak oscillation pattern, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term and intraday views are weak oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively. The reference is to focus on the MA5 line pressure, with the core logic of a weakened supply - demand pattern and steel prices under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Over the weekend, steel spot prices were stable with a slight increase, and the transaction was average. The supply - demand pattern of rebar continued to weaken seasonally, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly month - on - month, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, rebar demand has weakened significantly, and downstream industries have not improved. The weak demand characteristics during the off - season remain. Currently, the fundamentals of rebar continue to weaken, but the increase in costs and low inventory limit the downside space, and the short - term trend is a weak oscillation [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢周度数据-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 07:01
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. With stable production of construction steel mills, the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly, but the supply pressure is still likely to increase due to good profit per ton. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened significantly, with both weekly apparent demand and high - frequency daily transactions at low levels in recent years. The off - season fundamentals continue to deteriorate, inventory has increased substantially, and steel prices are under pressure. Although the recent cost increase limits the downward space, steel prices are expected to show a weakening trend in oscillation, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Data Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 220.45 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.73 tons. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, a week - on - week increase of 0.13 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, the output increased by 54.08 tons, and the capacity utilization rate increased by 0.61 percentage points [1]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 189.94 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20.85 tons. The weekly average of Steel Union's building materials transactions was 10.16, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18. Both are at low levels in recent years, and the off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices [1][2]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 587.19 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30.51 tons. The in - plant inventory was 172.26 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.06 tons, and the social inventory was 414.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 26.45 tons. Compared with the same period last year, the total inventory decreased by 103.37 tons, the in - plant inventory decreased by 9.25 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 94.12 tons [1].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250815
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-15 02:02
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of rebar 2510 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is also weak oscillation. Investors should pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak operation of the fundamentals, which causes the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. - The rebar market shows a situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory. Although the steel price is under pressure due to the weakening fundamentals and market sentiment, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3]. Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term is weak oscillation, the medium - term is oscillation, and the intraday is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, with the fundamental weakness causing the steel price to fall under pressure [2]. Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has weakened, leading to a collective decline in ferrous metals. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has significantly weakened, with a large increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar has slightly decreased, but there is still room for an increase in production. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, and the downstream industry has not improved. In the current situation of stable supply, weak demand and increasing inventory, the rebar fundamentals continue to weaken. Although the steel price is under pressure, the rising cost and low inventory limit the downside space, and the subsequent trend will be oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the demand performance [3].
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250812
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-12 01:22
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No report industry investment rating is provided in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on rebar 2510 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is weakly oscillatory. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and steel prices continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line [2] Market Driving Logic - The implementation of the production - restriction expectation is less than expected, and the raw materials have strengthened again, driving up steel prices. However, in the situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially. The production of construction steel mills has resumed, and the weekly output of rebar has increased significantly. Although the demand for rebar has improved, the improvement in off - season demand is of questionable sustainability. Steel prices are still prone to pressure, and the upward driving force needs to be tracked. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]
宝城期货螺纹钢早报-20250807
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-08-07 01:21
Report Summary Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and steel prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend. Pay attention to the support at the MA20 line and the production and sales data released by Steel Union today [2][3]. Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For rebar 2510, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are oscillatory, oscillatory, and weakly oscillatory respectively. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, causing steel prices to oscillate. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly running. The production of construction steel mills is weakening, with weekly production decreasing month - on - month. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the sustainability of supply contraction is not strong. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with high - frequency indicators showing a month - on - month decrease and being at a low level in the same period in recent years. The off - season demand is weak, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. In a low - inventory situation, the real - world contradictions of rebar are not significant. The strong performance of coking coal and coke drives steel prices to stabilize oscillatory. But with the supply - demand being weak, the fundamental situation is weakly stable, and the upward driving force is also not strong [3].