Report Summary of Baocheng Futures' Rebar Morning Report (February 11, 2026) 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply and demand pattern of rebar is weak. Although the supply has shrunk due to production cuts by construction steel mills, the high inventory level limits the positive effect. Meanwhile, the demand has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators declining and at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The steel price is under pressure and is expected to maintain an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, with cost support as a relative positive factor. Attention should be paid to inventory changes [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillating and weakening, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and weakening. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern and the steel price oscillating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply of rebar has contracted as construction steel mills have reduced production, with the weekly output of rebar decreasing month - on - month. However, the high inventory level limits the positive impact. The demand for rebar has also weakened, with high - frequency demand indicators dropping and being at the lowest level in the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern remains unchanged and continues to drag down the steel price. The steel price is under pressure, and the cost support is a positive factor. The steel price is expected to oscillate and seek the bottom, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, volatile, and weakly volatile respectively. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA20 line, with the steel price oscillating at a low level due to the weak and stable industrial pattern [2] - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with increased supply pressure and weakening demand. The steel price is under pressure in the off - season but is supported by costs, and it is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are "volatile", "volatile", and "weakly volatile" respectively. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA20 line, and the core logic is the weak and stable industrial pattern and low - level oscillation of steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The inventory increase has widened, production has risen to a relatively high level, and supply pressure has increased. However, short - process steel mills are expected to cut production as the Spring Festival approaches [3] - Rebar demand is declining weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators decreasing month - on - month and at a low level in the same lunar period in recent years. The demand pattern remains weak and continues to drag down steel prices [3] - The fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the steel price is under pressure in the off - season. The positive factor is cost support, and the trend is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, with attention to inventory changes [3]

1. Report Title and Type - The report is titled "Rebar Weekly Data (20260130)" and is a futures research report [1] 2. Core View - The supply - demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken, with an expanding inventory increase. The production of construction steel mills stabilizes. The weekly rebar output increases slightly by 0.28 tons week - on - week, and the supply remains stable at a high level. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the successive shutdowns of short - process steel mills, the supply is expected to decrease. Meanwhile, the rebar demand continues to weaken, with the weekly apparent demand and high - frequency trading volume decreasing week - on - week and remaining at a low level compared to the same lunar period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off - season remains unchanged, dragging down steel prices. Overall, the supply is stable while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals continue to be weak. The steel prices in the off - season are under pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm commodity sentiment and cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13] 3. Data Summary Supply - The weekly output is 199.83 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.28 tons, and a monthly increase of 11.61 tons compared to the end of last month. The output is 0.42 tons higher than the same period last year (lunar calendar). The blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points, a monthly increase of 0.21 percentage points, and 1.23 percentage points higher than the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3] Demand - The apparent demand is 176.40 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.12 tons, a monthly decrease of 24.04 tons compared to the end of last month, and a decrease of 13.65 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The weekly average of steel union building materials transactions is 7.02, a week - on - week decrease of 0.76, a monthly decrease of 2.60, and a decrease of 1.50 compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3] Inventory - The total inventory is 475.53 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.43 tons, a monthly increase of 53.50 tons compared to the end of last month, and an increase of 57.68 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The in - plant inventory is 149.13 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.15 tons, a monthly increase of 9.76 tons, and an increase of 23.59 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar). The social inventory is 326.40 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23.28 tons, a monthly increase of 43.74 tons, and an increase of 34.09 tons compared to the same period last year (lunar calendar) [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are expected to be volatile, with a volatile and weak intraday trend. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line, as real - world contradictions are accumulating and steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The rebar supply - demand pattern is weakly stable. The steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season, continuing the volatile and weak operation, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively volatile, volatile, and volatile and weak. The view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the accumulation of real - world contradictions and the weak and volatile steel prices [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand of rebar are weakly stable. The production of construction steel mills is stabilizing, and rebar production has contracted again. However, the profit per ton of the variety is good, so the supply reduction is not expected to be sustainable, and the positive effect is not strong [3]. - The rebar demand has improved, with the weekly apparent demand increasing month - on - month. However, the high - frequency daily trading volume is still sluggish, and both are at the lowest levels in the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the seasonal weakness of demand remains unchanged, which is likely to drag down steel prices [3]. - Currently, the rebar demand has improved, but its sustainability is questionable. The supply is weakly operating, the fundamentals continue the seasonal weakness, and the cost decline also drags down the price. Therefore, the steel price is expected to remain under pressure during the off - season and continue the volatile and weak operation [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2) Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has weakened, with a significant increase in inventory. The weekly output of rebar increased by 2820 tons week - on - week, and the supply continued to rise with room for further growth. The demand continued to weaken seasonally, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 25480 tons week - on - week. Although high - frequency transactions rebounded due to holiday factors, both remained at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry was weak, and the weak demand pattern remained unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. The rebar price rebounded from a low level due to the warm sentiment in commodities, but with increasing supply and weak demand, fundamental contradictions began to accumulate. The steel price in the off - season continued to be under pressure, and the cost support was a relative positive factor. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a low level, and the production situation of steel mills should be monitored [12]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The weekly output of rebar was 191040 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2820 tons, and an increase of 2820 tons compared to the end of last month. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.78 percentage points, and an increase of 0.78 percentage points compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the output decreased by 27690 tons, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.09 percentage points [3]. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for rebar was 174960 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 25480 tons, and a decrease of 25480 tons compared to the end of last month. The weekly average value of Steel Union building material transactions was 9810 tons, a week - on - week increase of 190 tons, and an increase of 190 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the apparent demand decreased by 63720 tons, and the weekly average value of transactions decreased by 1040 tons [3]. Inventory - The total inventory of rebar was 438110 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16080 tons, and an increase of 16080 tons compared to the end of last month. The in - plant inventory was 147930 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8560 tons, and an increase of 8560 tons compared to the end of last month. The social inventory was 290180 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7520 tons, and an increase of 7520 tons compared to the end of last month. Compared with the same period (lunar calendar), the total inventory increased by 35090 tons, the in - plant inventory increased by 27650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 7440 tons [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will continue to fluctuate. The supply of rebar is rising while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, but the policy expectation is relatively positive [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "oscillation and weakening". The overall view is "low - level oscillation". The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakly stable, and the steel price continues to oscillate [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - During the holiday, the spot price of steel products remained stable, and the supply - demand pattern of rebar was weakly stable. Construction steel mills resumed production, and the rebar output continued to rise with an unabated expectation of further increase, weakening the positive effect of the low - supply pattern. The rebar demand was weak, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industries did not improve, and the demand continued the seasonal weakness, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is increasing while the demand is weak, and the fundamentals are seasonally weak. The steel price is under pressure during the off - season, and the relatively positive factor is the policy expectation. It is expected that the steel price will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price of rebar 2605 will be in a low - level oscillation, with a short - term, medium - term, and intraday view of oscillation, oscillation, and weak oscillation respectively, due to a weakly stable supply - demand pattern [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating, with an overall outlook of low - level oscillation. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern, where steel prices move in an oscillating manner. The supply is at a relatively low level and rising with limited increase, while the demand is weakening [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Supply is rising from a low level but with limited increase and remains at a relatively low position, providing support for steel prices, yet there is an expectation of further increase. Demand is running weakly, with high - frequency demand indicators falling and at the lowest level in recent years. Downstream industries have not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, putting pressure on steel prices. The steel price in the off - season is under pressure, and the relatively positive factors are policy expectations and cost support, so the subsequent trend will continue to be in low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]

Core Viewpoint - The rebar steel futures prices have shown a low-level fluctuation since December, with the main contract oscillating between 3030 to 3180 yuan/ton, recently returning to the upper range of this interval. However, the spot prices are following suit but are limited by weak downstream demand as it enters the off-season [1]. Group 1: Short-term Positive Factors - The recent rebound of rebar steel futures prices is supported by three main positive factors: first, the renewed policy expectations have strengthened the "anti-involution" trading logic, leading to a strong rise in related varieties and boosting overall market sentiment [2]. - Second, raw material prices have stabilized, particularly iron ore prices, which have shown strong performance, providing support for steel prices from the cost side [2]. - Third, under low supply conditions, inventory pressure has significantly eased [2]. Group 2: Supply and Production Dynamics - Despite the low supply situation supporting steel prices, the production of rebar steel is expected to recover, which may weaken the positive effects. The latest weekly production is 1.8168 million tons, remaining at a low level compared to previous years, down 20.27% year-on-year [2]. - The profit margins for short-process steel mills have improved significantly, with only 14.05% of 77 independent electric arc furnace steel mills reporting losses. Some regions have achieved profitability under current cost calculations [2]. - The core factor previously limiting rebar steel supply, capacity indicators, will dissipate after the New Year, creating conditions for a recovery in rebar steel production [2]. Group 3: Demand Trends - Demand remains at a low level, with the latest weekly apparent demand at 2.0864 million tons, which, despite a week-on-week increase of 55,500 tons, is still at the lowest level in recent years, down 7.42% year-on-year [3]. - High-frequency daily transaction and cement outflow metrics also indicate that demand related to construction is weak, further confirming the sluggish performance of downstream industries [3]. - It is expected that rebar steel demand will continue to show seasonal weakness, and if supply rebounds as anticipated, industry contradictions may intensify [3]. Group 4: Cost Support Dynamics - Although iron ore prices remain high, providing some cost support for steel, the supply-demand dynamics for iron ore are weak, making prices susceptible to downward pressure [4]. - On the demand side, steel mills are reducing production as the year-end approaches, leading to a continued decline in iron ore consumption [4]. - The overall supply pressure remains despite seasonal declines in domestic mining production, with high port arrivals and shipments of iron ore expected to continue [4]. Conclusion - In summary, while short-term positive factors have driven rebar steel futures prices back to the upper range of their fluctuation, the overall supply-demand dynamics remain weak, and the market is likely to continue experiencing low-level fluctuations in the near term, with a focus on the recovery of production in construction steel mills [2][3][4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The report believes that the supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable, and the steel price will fluctuate at a low level. The short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of rebar 2605 are all expected to be in a state of weak fluctuation [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are respectively: short - term is volatile, medium - term is volatile, and intraday is weakly volatile. The overall view is weakly volatile, with the core logic being the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and the steel price fluctuating at a low level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The weekend spot price of rebar decreased slightly, and the trading volume was weak. The supply - demand pattern of rebar is weakly stable. Rebar production has dropped significantly, and the supply has reached a low level, which supports the steel price. However, the profit of short - process steel mills is improving, and the sustainability of production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, high - frequency indicators are running weakly at a low level, and downstream industries have not improved. Demand continues to decline seasonally, putting pressure on the steel price. Currently, the supply of rebar is at a low level, providing support for the price, but the demand is also weakening. The fundamentals of rebar have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views on Rebar 2601 are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a weak bias" respectively. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season is lackluster, and steel prices will continue to oscillate [2]. - Before the holiday, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved, but the downstream performance remains sluggish, demand concerns persist, and the improvement in fundamentals is questionable. The upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are oscillation, oscillation, and oscillation with a weak bias respectively. The reference is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the peak season lacks luster and steel prices continue to oscillate. Specific rules for calculating price changes and defining trends are also provided [2]. 2. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of rebar has marginally improved. Weekly rebar production has increased slightly month - on - month and remains at a low level for the year, but inventory is relatively high, so the positive effect is not strong. High - frequency demand indicators for rebar have rebounded, and demand has improved before the holiday, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the peak season is lackluster. In general, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has improved before the holiday, but the downstream performance is still sluggish, demand concerns remain, the improvement in fundamentals is questionable, the upward driving force for steel prices is weak, and the relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate before the holiday, and attention should be paid to changes in positions [3].