Summary of Conference Call on Cobalt Industry Industry Overview - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is the largest cobalt supplier globally, contributing 76% of the world's cobalt supply in 2024 and expected to provide approximately 300,000 tons in 2025, with over 70% from DRC [3][4] - DRC's export restrictions are causing significant disruptions in global supply, potentially shifting the cobalt market from surplus to a balanced state in 2025 [1][4] Key Points and Arguments - DRC's export restrictions could impact about one-third of the annual supply if they last for four months, likely leading to an increase in cobalt prices [1][3] - The introduction of steel policies has led to a revaluation of cobalt-related stocks, with a focus on DRC's export policy changes and potential supply-demand mismatches that could trigger a second price surge [1][5] - The DRC government may extend export restrictions or implement quota controls to elevate prices and increase tax revenue, which will have lasting effects on the market [1][6] - Domestic companies show significant inventory disparities, with many lacking strong stocking intentions during low-price periods, leading to rapid inventory depletion and increased market tension, which is expected to drive prices higher [1][7] - Indonesia's cobalt production is limited and cannot significantly fill the domestic supply gap, exacerbating the situation as DRC's exports remain constrained [1][8] Price Projections - Current cobalt prices are around 240,000 CNY, with expectations to rise to 300,000-350,000 CNY due to tight supply conditions [1][8] Notable Companies and Investment Opportunities - Huayou Cobalt and Lican Resources are highlighted as companies benefiting from cobalt price fluctuations, with relatively low valuations [3][9] - Luoyang Molybdenum Co. is expected to see significant profit increases from rising cobalt prices, with projections indicating a potential profit increase of 2 billion CNY for every 50,000 CNY rise in cobalt prices [3][12] - The company anticipates achieving copper and cobalt production close to the upper limits of its guidance for 2025, with significant cost control measures in place [10][11] Market Dynamics - The market is expected to experience tightening conditions, which will likely push prices further upward [7][8] - The recent steel policy changes and supply-demand mismatches are critical factors to monitor for future price movements [5][6] Conclusion - The cobalt market is undergoing significant changes due to DRC's export policies and domestic inventory levels, with potential for price increases and investment opportunities in key companies like Huayou Cobalt, Lican Resources, and Luoyang Molybdenum Co. [1][3][9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing positive growth, reflected in the strong performance of related ETFs and optimistic market expectations [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association forecasts a 6% increase in the industry's added value in the first half of the year, with a 3% rise in the production of ten non-ferrous metals [1] - Investment in mining and green technology is maintaining rapid growth, while copper and aluminum prices are fluctuating at high levels, indicating a robust market environment [1] Group 2 - The cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is leading to a tightening supply situation, with rising prices expected as inventory levels decrease [2] - In the lithium market, while some producers are reducing output, the overall supply remains high, leading to a continued oversupply situation [2] - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise as supply tightens and demand increases, particularly as inventory levels are consumed [2] Group 3 - The increase in U.S. tariffs is contributing to economic recession risks and heightened credit risks for the dollar, which may drive gold prices higher [3] - Gold prices are stabilizing around $3,000 per ounce, which is expected to enhance the performance and cash flow of gold companies [3] - A-shares in gold stocks, currently near a decade-low valuation, are likely to experience a revaluation due to these market dynamics [3]