兴业证券此前研报指出，万国黄金集团成长性和盈利能力占优。公司主要增量来自于金岭矿业，所罗门 金矿选厂已启动1000万吨/年新建计划，紫金赋能工程建设，投产后采选规模将从目前的350万吨/年增 至1350万吨/年，预计于2028年建成投产，估计黄金年产量有望达到15吨，打造成为世界级金矿。 消息面上，受地缘政治风险加剧、实物短缺及美联储政策不确定性影响，周一，国际现货黄金历史性突 破4600美元/盎司。花旗激进上调贵金属短期展望，在牛市情景下，预计未来3个月内金价将冲至5000美 元/盎司，白银达100美元/盎司。摩根士丹利与摩根大通等华尔街投行亦维持长期看涨共识。 智通财经APP获悉，万国黄金集团(03939)早盘涨近7%，月内累计涨幅已超30%。截至发稿，涨5.54%， 报10.09港元，成交额1.97亿港元。 ...

近期，贵金属市场异常活跃，黄金价格创下新高，白银价格也突破了70美元大关，引起了广泛关注，专家吉姆·里卡兹对此表示，未来的涨幅可能比人们预 期的要迅猛得多，他的观点并非空穴来风，因为他长期专注于货币市场的研究。 伦敦金属市场的价格波动剧烈，钯金价格高达每单位1800多美元，铂金价格在2175美元上下波动，白银勉强维持在69美元，黄金价格有所回落，相比前两天 仍有所上涨。 纸黄金与实物黄金之间的价格差距超过了十倍，里卡兹警告说，这种情况非常危险，如果大量投资者要求兑换实物金属，市场可能会立即陷入混乱。 多家珠宝品牌公布了最新的贵金属价格信息，富艺珠宝的黄金报价为每克1396元，投资金条价格为1225元，PT950铂金为每克925元。 天乙银饰与斯尔沃银器均提供了白银的实时价格，均为每克16.22元，中钞国鼎也公布了基准银价，为每克7.43元。 在K金方面，市场报价较为明确：9K金每克375元，14K金每克586元，18K金达到每克751元。 银行销售的金条价格波动频繁，建设银行的金条价格为每克1020多元，工商银行稍贵，农业银行相对便宜，价格与回收市场相比显得微不足道。 上周，回收价一度飙升至每克995.1元， ...

【机构观点】 根据摩根大通的预测模型，金价通往5000美元目标的路径清晰可循。他们预测2026年投资者和央行的季 度总需求平均约为585吨，其中包括约190吨的央行需求、330吨的金条金币需求，以及集中在上半年的 ETF与期货需求。 【要闻速递】 在美国总统唐纳德·特朗普上周宣布对离开或进入委内瑞拉的油轮实施"封锁"后，加勒比地区的紧张局 势有所加剧。随着特朗普对尼古拉斯·马杜罗总统施压，美国军事地面行动的猜测依然很高。 与此同时，中东地区的火药味也愈发浓厚。以色列向美国通报，伊朗可能在筹备对以色列发动袭击，尽 管伊朗的军演目前仅限于境内调动，且美情报机构未发现明确迹象，但以色列总理内塔尼亚胡已公开警 告，如果伊朗攻击以色列，将遭到"非常猛烈的回应"。 周二（12月23日）亚市盘中，现货黄金日内涨幅达1.00%，日内最高触及1015.54元/克，沪金主力合约 日内涨近3%，现报1016.24元/克。钯、铂期货触及涨停，沪银主力合约日内大涨4.00%，现报16404.00 元/千克。 现货铂金也冲上2100美元上方，年内大涨140%；现货钯金一度突破1800美元/盎司，今年价格已翻倍。 ...

高盛最新报告中指出，美国黄金ETF目前仅占私人非现金金融投资组合的0.17%，较2012年峰值水平低 约6个基点。这一配置比例远低于花旗、瑞银、桥水等机构建议的中高个位数百分比配置。 高盛估算，美国金融投资组合中黄金份额每增加1个基点——由增量投资者购买而非价格上涨驱动—— 将推动金价上涨约1.4%。分析师表示，如果多元化资金流动从央行扩展至私人投资者，其4900美元的 金价目标面临"显著上行风险"。 12月11日，美联储鹰派降息，金价盘中回落，截至A股收盘，COMEX黄金期货交投于4241美元/盎司附 近，黄金ETF华夏(518850)涨0.17%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨跌持平，有色金属ETF基金(516650)跌 0.52%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - JPMorgan predicts that the average gold price will reach $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by sustained investor interest and steady central bank purchases [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - The forecast is based on expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, inflation concerns, worries about the Fed's independence, and broader devaluation risk hedging demand [1] - Gold prices have surged nearly 57% year-to-date due to geopolitical and economic uncertainties, rate cut expectations, and ongoing central bank purchases [1] Group 2: Investor Behavior - Foreign holders of U.S. assets are slightly reducing their dollar holdings and shifting towards gold, indicating a strategic reallocation [1] - A potential decrease in U.S. asset allocation from approximately 45% to 43%, with a 0.5% shift to gold, could push gold prices up to $6,000 [1] Group 3: Central Bank Activity - Goldman Sachs expects central banks to maintain stable purchasing momentum, with a potential increase in gold purchases in September and October following a seasonal lull [1] - Continuous central bank inflows, combined with ETF fund re-entry post-Fed rate cuts, create a "structurally strong demand backdrop" for gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley analysts maintain a bullish outlook on gold prices, predicting that by the fourth quarter of 2026, gold prices will reach $5,055 per ounce [2] Group 1 - Analysts express confidence in the long-term growth of gold prices [2] - The forecast indicates a significant increase in gold prices over the next few years [2] - The prediction reflects ongoing trends and market conditions favorable for gold [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market is experiencing a significant surge in gold-related stocks, with notable increases in companies such as Huayu Mining and Silver Industry, leading to a rise in gold stock ETFs [1][2] Market Performance - Gold concept stocks continue to rise, with Huayu Mining hitting a 10% limit up, and Silver Industry increasing over 7%. Other companies like He Bai Group and Western Gold also saw gains exceeding 6% [1] - The gold stock ETF rose by 2.13%, expanding its year-to-date increase to 104%, while the non-ferrous metal ETF increased by 0.51%, with a year-to-date rise of 84% [1] Price Expectations - International gold prices have reached a new historical high, with spot gold rising by 0.7% to $4,140 per ounce [2] - Bank of America has raised its gold and silver price forecasts for next year to $5,000 per ounce and $65 per ounce, respectively, driven by factors such as rising U.S. fiscal deficits and debt, as well as easing monetary policy pressures [2] - Societe Generale has also increased its 2026 gold price forecast to $5,000 per ounce, citing support from ETFs and central bank activities [2] Fund Flows - Gold stock ETFs have seen a net inflow of 300 million yuan over the past four days, with a total net inflow of 1.65 billion yuan over the last 20 trading days [2] - Non-ferrous metal ETFs have attracted over 800 million yuan in net inflows over the past seven days, totaling 1.187 billion yuan in the last 20 trading days [2] Notable ETFs - The gold stock ETF (159562) has increased by 2.13%, tracking an index dominated by gold and copper, and includes silver-related companies [3] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (516650) has risen by 0.51%, with major holdings in companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [3] - The lowest fee gold ETF, Huaxia Gold ETF (518850), has increased by 2.19% and allows T+0 trading [4]

Core Insights - Spot gold prices surpassed $4000 per ounce, reaching a historic high on October 8 [1] - As of the close on October 7, December gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $4004.4 per ounce, marking a 0.71% increase from the previous trading day [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4300 to $4900 per ounce, citing strong inflows into ETFs and continued central bank purchases [1] Market Dynamics - The U.S. federal government "shutdown" has heightened risk aversion among investors, contributing to the rise in gold prices [3] - Political instability in countries like France and Japan has further fueled investor concerns, leading to an increase in gold prices [3] Domestic Impact - The recent surge in international gold prices has led to a corresponding increase in domestic gold jewelry prices [3] - As of now, the price of pure gold jewelry from Chow Sang Sang has reached 1165 RMB per gram, while Chow Tai Fook's pure gold jewelry is priced at 1162 RMB per gram [3]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs maintains a long-term bullish outlook on gold, indicating that prices have further upside potential, possibly exceeding previous estimates [1] - The report highlights strong inflows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), surpassing earlier models, driven by significant interest from private investors [1] - The bank's analysts project a "huge upside risk" to their forecasts of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 and $4,300 per ounce by the end of next year due to the shift of private investor funds into gold [1] Market Trends - Gold prices have fluctuated between $3,200 and $3,450 per ounce in Q2 and Q3, with a 12% increase since August 29, breaking through this range [1] - Central banks are expected to accelerate gold purchases following a summer lull, with speculative positions only partially explaining the recent price surge [1] - Gold has emerged as one of the strongest performing major commodities this year, soaring nearly 50% and surpassing the inflation-adjusted record high from 1980, driven by coordinated central bank buying and the Federal Reserve's return to rate cuts [1]

来源：@每日经济新闻微博 【#专家称明年金价或达4000美元# ，多家国际金融机构看涨金价】当地时间8月29日，国际金价显著上 涨，纽约商品交易所12月黄金期价收于每盎司3516.10美元，涨幅达1.20%。回顾整个8月，纽约商品交 易所黄金期货主力合约价格累计涨幅超5%。目前，市场普遍预计美联储今年内可能会降息一次甚至两 次，这对包括黄金和白银在内的大宗商品价格构成整体支撑，多家国际金融机构看涨金价，瑞士银行目 前已将2026年上半年国际金价目标价上调至每盎司3700美元。美国银行的分析师则预计，到2026年上半 年国际金价将触及每盎司4000美元高位。（央视财经，泽塔） ...