钴金属 - 2026 年开门红金属巡礼 20260107 摘要 2026-2027 年全球钴供应预计存在缺口，为钴价提供支撑。刚果金出 口政策延期及配额制度导致出口缓慢，预计 1-3 月原料供应短缺，或推 动钴价上涨。 下游企业为应对"金三银四"生产高峰期，一二月份将增加备货需求， 消费电子领域对高价接受度较高，可能进一步推高钴价。地缘政治风险 也可能导致钴价快速上涨。 刚果金政策变化显著影响钴供应预期。配额制度出台后引发涨价，但审 批流程延迟导致运输推迟，首批货物预计 3-4 月抵达中国。需关注 2025 年四季度配额延期至 2026 年一季度使用的处理方式。 钢铁企业应积极申请去年四季度与今年一季度联动的配额，避免配额作 废。密切关注刚果政府与摩科瑞合作后的分销安排及嘉能可等大型贸易 商的供货意向。 欧洲市场数据显示，中国建谷生产厂商持续向欧美贸易商出售货物，但 多存入保税库，等待行情发酵。终端厂商补货将推动需求增加，进一步 推高价格。 Q&A 前尚未开始发运。尤其是 12 月初售股方要求 48 小时内支付 10%的特许使用 费，以及宣布将 2025 年第四季度出口配额延期至 2026 年第一季度使用，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of cobalt export quotas by the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact cobalt prices positively, benefiting companies like Liqin Resources [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Liqin Resources (02245) saw a stock price increase of 5.3%, reaching HKD 19.2, with a trading volume of HKD 28.05 million [1] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The DRC will implement a cobalt export quota system starting October 16, 2025, with a remaining export limit of 18,100 tons for 2025 and annual quotas of 96,600 tons for 2026-2027 [1] - The quotas will be allocated based on companies' historical export volumes, with unused quotas transferable to strategic quotas, allowing the government to adjust dynamically [1] - Tianfeng Securities noted that the new quota policy could lead to a supply-demand balance or even a shortage, which may elevate cobalt prices in the long term [1] - CICC highlighted that the total cobalt export quota for 2026/2027 will only account for 44% of DRC's cobalt production in 2024, indicating tightening supply [1] - The tightening of export quotas is expected to drive cobalt prices higher, benefiting Liqin Resources' wet-process capacity in Indonesia and potential expansion in the nickel industry [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the cobalt industry, specifically focusing on the recent cobalt export quota policy implemented by the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) [1][3][8]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Cobalt Export Quota**: The DRC has established a cobalt export quota system, with a remaining quota of 18,100 tons for 2025 and a total quota of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027, which represents only 44% of the DRC's estimated cobalt production for 2024 [1][3]. - **Impact on Global Supply**: The quota is expected to significantly reduce global cobalt supply by over 40%, which will likely support an increase in cobalt prices [3][11]. - **Price Increases**: Since February 24, cobalt intermediate prices have surged by 185%, with overseas MB cobalt metal and domestic metal cobalt prices increasing by 107% and 123%, respectively [1][6]. - **Market Dynamics**: The market is expected to be dominated by a few platforms, including Glencore, the DRC government, and Eurasian Resources, which may lead to increased price volatility and elasticity [1][7]. - **Strategic Intent**: The DRC aims to enhance its international bargaining power and ensure long-term high cobalt prices through quantity control measures [8]. Additional Important Content - **Recent Import Trends**: In August, China's imports of wet-process intermediate products from the DRC fell by 91% year-on-year and 64% month-on-month, marking the third consecutive month of significant decline [2][13]. - **Domestic Production and Demand**: Domestic metal cobalt production in China decreased by 36% year-on-year in August, while the production of cobalt sulfate and cobalt oxide increased by 6% and 38%, respectively [14]. - **Company Focus**: Companies to watch include Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which have wet-process nickel-cobalt refining capacity in Indonesia, and DRC-based companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Shengton Mining that have received quotas [15][16]. - **Future Price Expectations**: The market anticipates that cobalt prices will stabilize around 400,000 yuan per ton, which is crucial for long-term valuation models and profit forecasts for companies in the industry [12][11]. Conclusion - The DRC's new cobalt export quota policy is poised to reshape the global cobalt supply landscape, leading to significant price increases and altering market dynamics. Companies with strategic positions in this evolving market are likely to benefit from the anticipated price elasticity and reduced supply.

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export suspension until October 15, 2025, which may impact market expectations and inventory depletion rates in the short term [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the allocation of future cobalt quotas in the DRC and the limited incremental supply from Indonesia's MHP in 2024 is highlighted, indicating that even significant increases in production may not compensate for the shortfall caused by the DRC's quota policy [2] - According to customs data, China's cobalt intermediate imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, reflecting significant month-over-month declines of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [2] Group 2 - It is projected that global effective cobalt supply will decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025 due to the DRC's export suspension lasting seven months, with further extensions potentially exacerbating raw material shortages [2] - The tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong support for long-term price stability due to the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply management [2] - The stock price of Liqin Resources (02245) has increased by over 50% in the month, with a current price of 22.14 HKD, reflecting a rise of 4.43% and a trading volume of 338 million HKD [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent extension of cobalt export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is expected to impact market expectations and inventory depletion, leading to a potential increase in cobalt prices in the medium to long term [1][2] - Liqin Resources (02245) has seen its stock price rise over 50% this month, with a current price of 22.14 HKD and a trading volume of 338 million HKD [1] - The DRC's new cobalt export policy includes an extension of the export suspension until October 15, 2025, along with a subsequent quota system, which may create uncertainty in the allocation of future indicators [1] Group 2 - According to customs data, China's cobalt intermediate imports from June to August were 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, showing significant declines of 61.62%, 27.26%, and 62.05% respectively [2] - If the DRC's export suspension lasts for seven months, global effective cobalt supply is projected to decrease by 34% from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons in 2025, with further extensions of the ban potentially exacerbating raw material shortages [2] - In a tightening supply scenario, short-term cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, with strong support for long-term price stability due to the DRC government's clear stance on cobalt supply management [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Congolese government's export ban on cobalt is significantly impacting global supply, leading to a projected 34% decrease in effective global cobalt supply by 2025, from 282,000 tons to 185,000 tons [1][2] Supply Impact - Cobalt imports to China from June to August 2025 have shown a continuous decline, with volumes of 19,000 tons, 13,800 tons, and 5,200 tons, reflecting month-on-month decreases of -61.62%, -27.26%, and -62.05% respectively [1][2] - The ongoing export ban, which began on February 22, 2025, has created significant disruptions in cobalt supply, with the possibility of further extensions to the ban [1][2] Demand Outlook - The demand for cobalt is expected to grow steadily, particularly in the battery sector, despite weaker demand for ternary batteries. Emerging applications in drones and consumer electronics are anticipated to provide additional demand [2] - Under a neutral scenario, cobalt demand is projected to increase by 5.06% to 210,900 tons by 2025, supported by long-term growth in new sectors such as low-altitude economy and robotics [2] Price Trends - Cobalt prices have risen from a historical low of 159,000 yuan/ton to 277,000 yuan/ton since the export restrictions were implemented [3] - Short-term supply disruptions are expected to continue, leading to further price increases, while the Congolese government's firm stance on supply control suggests strong long-term price support [3] Investment Opportunities - Companies in the cobalt sector with profit elasticity include Huayou Cobalt (603799.SH), Tengyuan Cobalt (301219.SZ), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), Liqin Resources (02245), and Hanrui Cobalt (300618.SZ) [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, transitioning to a quota system thereafter, which is expected to impact global cobalt supply and prices significantly [4][6]. Group 1: Cobalt Export Regulations - The DRC's cobalt export ban will now be followed by a quota system starting October 16, 2025, allowing exports of 3,625 tons in October, increasing to 7,250 tons in November and December, and a total of 96,600 tons from 2026 to 2027 [4]. - Export quotas will be allocated based on historical export volumes of each company [4]. Group 2: Global Cobalt Production and Market Impact - In 2024, the DRC is projected to account for 76.3% of global cobalt production, with an estimated output of 220,000 tons, while Indonesia and Russia will contribute significantly less at 28,000 tons and 8,700 tons, respectively [5]. - The DRC's previous export bans were a response to plummeting cobalt prices, which fell to historical lows earlier in 2025, indicating a potential for price recovery due to supply constraints [6]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The DRC's export suspension from February 22 to October 15, 2025, is expected to reduce global cobalt supply by approximately 141,600 tons, leading to a projected annual shortfall of 30,000 tons from 2026 to 2027 if demand remains stable [7]. - China's cobalt raw material imports saw a dramatic decline in August 2025, with a 90% year-on-year drop, indicating a tightening supply situation that may continue as inventory levels decrease [8][9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent cobalt export policy from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) extends the export suspension until October 15, 2025, and introduces a quota system starting October 16, 2025, which will significantly impact the cobalt market dynamics [2][3][6]. Group 1: Export Control and Quota System - Temporary export suspension extended until October 15, 2025 [3][4]. - Quota system to be implemented starting October 16, 2025, with specific conditions and distribution methods to be outlined in a forthcoming resolution [3][4]. - Maximum export authorization for the period from October 16 to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,125 tons, with monthly allowances specified [3][4]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Dynamics - The total export quota for 2026 is capped at 96,600 tons, consisting of 87,000 tons as "basic quota" and 9,600 tons as "strategic quota" [3][4]. - The basic quota allows for a monthly allocation of 7,250 tons, with distribution based on historical export volumes, excluding certain companies [3][4]. - Strategic quotas are designated for projects of national importance, with ARECOMS having full discretion over their allocation [4][5]. Group 3: Market Implications - The quota volume represents a 56% reduction compared to last year's exports of nearly 220,000 tons, indicating a potential tightening of supply [6][7]. - Current industry chain inventory is approximately four months, suggesting that the end of the suspension and shipping delays could lead to significant inventory depletion [6][7]. - The uncertainty surrounding future quota allocations and the limited capacity for increased supply from Indonesia highlights the challenges in meeting demand [6][7]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus on companies less affected by DRC policies, such as Huayou Cobalt and Liqin Resources, which possess quality nickel-cobalt resources in Indonesia [6][7]. - Long-term advantages are expected for companies with substantial resource reserves and production capacity, such as Luoyang Molybdenum and flexible companies like Tengyuan Cobalt and Hanrui Cobalt [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Liqin Resources (02245) experienced a significant stock price increase of over 8%, reaching HKD 16.54, following news of an extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo until October 15, with a subsequent lifting on October 16 and the implementation of annual export quotas [1][1][1] Group 2 - The Congolese government announced that mining companies will be allowed to export a maximum of 18,125 tons of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, with annual limits of 96,600 tons for 2026 and 2027 [1][1][1] - According to Shenwan Hongyuan, the tightening supply situation is expected to lead to a continued rise in cobalt prices in the short term, with strong long-term support for cobalt prices due to the government's clear stance on supply control [1][1][1] Group 3 - Liqin Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, with a share of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt expected to be operational by 2024 [1][1][1] - The first phase of the pyrometallurgical project has a capacity of 95,000 tons, with production starting in 2023, and the second phase is expected to have partial production lines operational by the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons [1][1][1] - According to Minsheng Securities, the large scale and cost advantages of Liqin Resources' nickel production capacity in Indonesia are expected to significantly benefit from the rising cobalt prices [1][1][1]

Group 1 - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will lift its cobalt export ban on October 16, implementing annual export quotas [1][3] - Cobalt is a critical raw material for batteries and essential for the electric vehicle industry [1] - DRC accounted for approximately 70% of global cobalt production last year, with the export ban initially imposed due to a significant drop in cobalt prices [2][3] Group 2 - The DRC government has stated that illegal mining is fueling violence from the M23 rebel group, and 10% of the export volume will be reserved for national strategic projects [3] - Major cobalt intermediate producers have suspended pricing, and some manufacturers have halted production due to raw material shortages [3] - The demand for cobalt is expected to increase as domestic consumption rises, particularly with the release of new consumer electronics and the end of the overseas summer break [3] Group 3 - Under the quota system, the cobalt industry may face tight balance or even shortages, with expectations of a long-term increase in cobalt prices [3] - Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) plans to optimize resource release in line with local policies to maximize cobalt value, while Hanrui Cobalt (300618) is controlling order intake to manage sales rhythm [3] - Domestic cobalt raw material inventories are expected to last until the end of the year [3] Group 4 - Luoyang Molybdenum is a leading "mining + trading" company with significant production in tungsten, cobalt, niobium, and molybdenum, and is also a major producer of copper and phosphate fertilizers [4] - The company holds an 80% stake in TFM, one of the largest and highest-grade copper-cobalt mines globally, and a 71.25% stake in KFM, a world-class greenfield copper-cobalt mine [4]