Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with an expanding inventory increase. Steel mill production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore has rebounded. The average daily hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills this week increased month - on - month, remaining at a relatively high level this year, providing support for ore prices. However, steel profits are shrinking, and the incremental space is limited. [2] - Port ore arrivals have declined again, and overseas miners' shipments continue to be weak. Overseas ore supply is relatively weak recently, in line with seasonal characteristics, but its persistence at high ore prices is not strong and will recover later. Domestic ore supply has rebounded from a low level, and it is expected that iron ore supply will increase steadily. [2] - In the situation of weak supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are okay, and steel mills have good profitability and strong demand resilience, supporting ore prices. The relative negatives are high valuations and weakening market sentiment. In the short term, ore prices will continue to adjust at a high level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products. [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 13,819.27, a week - on - week increase of 107.00, a monthly increase of 161.37, and a year - on - year decrease of 1,215.83. [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 9,136.34, a week - on - week increase of 123.00, a monthly increase of 124.25, and a year - on - year increase of 66.36. [1] Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrivals are 2,381.90, a week - on - week decrease of 125.90, a monthly increase of 141.40, and a year - on - year increase of 27.20. [1] - Global 19 - port iron ore shipments are 3,046.70, a week - on - week decrease of 15.10, a monthly decrease of 154.20, and a year - on - year increase of 82.00. [1] Demand - 247 steel mills' average daily hot metal production is 240.66, a week - on - week increase of 0.34, a monthly decrease of 0.05, and a year - on - year increase of 11.89. [1] - 45 - port average daily ore removal volume is 334.67, a week - on - week increase of 12.82, a monthly increase of 31.96, and a year - on - year increase of 12.85. [1] - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 298.52, a week - on - week increase of 0.37, a monthly decrease of 0.94, and a year - on - year increase of 18.03. [1] - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 115.33, a week - on - week increase of 19.97, a monthly increase of 26.53, and a year - on - year increase of 31.35. [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry [1] 2. Core View - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of MA5. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is good and the ore price remains at a high level [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively good. Although steel mills' production is weakening and the terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, the steel mills' profitability is good, demand remains relatively high with certain resilience, which supports the ore price. Meanwhile, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has declined again, overseas miners' shipments have decreased, and domestic ore production is weakening, resulting in weak supply. Under the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of iron ore are stable. The good profitability of steel mills and the resilient demand strongly support the ore price. The relatively negative factor is the relatively high valuation, and the short - term trend will maintain high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议，请务必阅读文末免责条款。 铁矿石供需格局变化不大，钢厂生产趋弱，矿石终端消耗持续回落，本周样本钢厂日均铁水产量和进口矿日耗环比再 降，但钢厂盈利状况依旧良好，整体降幅不大，整体维持相对高位，给予矿价支撑，后续需重点关注钢厂限产冲击。与此同 时，国内港口铁矿石到货如期回升，但海外矿商发运则是有所回落，高矿价减量持续存疑，而内矿供应表现平稳，整体矿石 供应稳中有升。目前来看，铁矿石需求边际走弱，而供应在回升，矿市基本面延续弱势，相对利好则是钢厂盈利状况良好， 需求韧性尚可，给予矿价支撑，预计矿价走势延续震荡整理态势，重点关注钢厂限产执行情况。 公司地址：浙江省杭州市求是路 8 号公元大厦南裙1-5楼。 咨询热线：400 618 1199 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,712.27 54.37 13,657.90 54.37 15,043.96 -1,331.69 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,013.34 1.25 9,012.09 1.25 9,045.87 -32 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The iron ore supply - demand pattern continues to be weak. The demand is declining while the supply is expected to increase steadily. However, due to the good profit situation of steel mills, the demand has some resilience, which supports the ore price. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level volatile consolidation state, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production restriction situation [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is a decline, and the intraday view is also oscillating weakly. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the oscillating adjustment of the ore price [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore remains weak. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously falling. But the good profit situation of steel mills limits the decline of demand from its high level, providing support for the ore price. Attention should be paid to the impact of production restrictions. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased as expected, while the shipment from overseas miners has decreased. There is doubt about the continuous reduction under high ore prices. Domestic ore production is stabilizing, and the ore supply is expected to increase steadily. - Overall, the demand is continuously weakening and the supply is increasing steadily, but the good profitability of steel mills gives the ore price support, so the ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and the steel mill production restriction situation should be focused on [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The positive factor is that the steel mills' profitability is fair, and the demand remains high, supporting the ore price. However, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded as expected. Even though the overseas miners' shipments have decreased again, the decline is small, and the continuation of the decline under high ore prices is questionable. The overseas ore supply is expected to increase, and the domestic ore production is weakly stable, so the overall supply will increase steadily. Currently, the ore demand has good resilience, supporting the high - level operation of the ore price, but the supply is rising, and the fundamentals are expected to weaken. Under the game of long and short factors, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term trend is volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and the intraday trend is slightly stronger. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening, and the ore price is undergoing volatile adjustment [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weakening. The steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The steel mills' good profitability maintains high - level demand, supporting the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the overseas ore supply is expected to increase. The domestic ore production is weakly stable, and the overall supply will increase steadily. The ore demand has good resilience, but the supply is rising, so the fundamentals are expected to weaken. The ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [2]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's fundamentals are weakening, and the price is undergoing high - level adjustments. It is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the support at the MA20 line and the trend of finished steel products [1][2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weakly volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weakly volatile. The key is to focus on the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakening and the ore price is adjusting at a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. However, the good profitability of steel mills provides some support for the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports remains low, but it is expected to increase according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the supply of ore is expected to gradually increase. With the supply increasing and demand remaining stable, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are continuously weakening, and combined with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level volatile consolidation [2].

作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,657.90 -132.48 13,930.23 -272.33 15,090.31 -1,432.41 247家钢厂进口矿库存 9,012.09 126.87 8,847.47 164.62 9,122.68 -110.59 45港铁矿石到货量 2,240.50 -130.70 2,562.70 -322.20 1,822.00 418.50 全球19港铁矿石发货量 3,200.90 91.80 3,506.70 -305.80 3,019.00 181.90 247家钢厂日均铁水产量 240.71 -1.52 242.29 -1.58 236.62 4.09 45港日均疏港量 302.71 -12.44 325.94 -23.23 298.39 4.32 247家钢厂进口矿日耗 29 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report (August 1, 2025) - Report Author: Tu Weihua - Author's Position: Investment Consulting Department of Baocheng Futures - Author's Qualification: F3060359 (Industry Qualification), Z0011688 (Investment Consulting) 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern is weakening. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. Although steel mills' profitability is good and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price, the overall ore supply is expected to increase. Therefore, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is weak shock, the medium - term view is shock, and the intraday view is also weak shock. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA20 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is weakening and the ore price continues to adjust [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore is continuously declining. The relatively positive factor is that steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still demand resilience to support the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports is currently low, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound according to the shipping schedule. Overseas miners are actively shipping at high ore prices, and domestic ore production is weakly stable. Overall, the ore supply will increase. With demand showing weakness and supply increasing, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening. Coupled with poor market sentiment, the ore price is expected to continue the high - level shock consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished products [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market's supply - demand pattern has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has started to decline. However, steel mills' profitability is good, and there is still resilience in ore demand, which supports the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased month - on - month, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound. The supply of ore is expected to increase due to the continuous increase in overseas miners' shipments and the recovery of domestic ore production. The ore price has stopped falling and rebounded again, but the market fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward driving force is limited. It is expected that the ore price will maintain a high - level oscillating trend, and the performance of finished products should be monitored [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating with a slight upward bias. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA10 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern is stable, and the ore price is oscillating at a high level [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed. Steel mills' production is weakly stable, and ore terminal consumption is falling. But steel mills' good profitability provides support for ore demand. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has decreased, but it will rebound according to shipping schedules. Overseas miners' shipments are increasing, and domestic ore production is recovering, so the ore supply is expected to rise. The ore price has rebounded due to demand resilience and improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals are expected to weaken, and the upward drive is limited. The ore price is expected to oscillate at a high level, and the performance of finished products should be noted [3]

| 服务国家 | 走向世界 | | 诚信至上 | 合规经营 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 知行合一 | 专业敬业 | CONNECT CONSULTION CHARDING CALL PRODUCT COLL AND WANT CHOOL CHANAL | 那道管理 | 开拓进取 | 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反映了本人的 研究观点。本人不会因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直 接或间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 本周值 环比变化 上月末值 本月变化 同期值 同期变化 45港铁矿石库存 13,790.38 5.17 13,930.23 -139.85 15,279.94 -1,489.56 247家钢厂进口矿库存 8,885.22 63.06 8,847.47 37.75 9,2 ...