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宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年11月7日)-20251107
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-07 01:37
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is oscillating weakly, and the medium - term view is oscillating. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern has weakened, and the ore price is under pressure [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a significant increase in inventory. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, steel mill production weakens, the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline, and the weak demand in the steel market suppresses the ore price. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure to run weakly [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is oscillating weakly, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the ore price under pressure [2]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken, with a large inventory build - up. Steel mill production weakens under production restrictions, and ore terminal consumption declines. The weak demand in the steel market restrains the ore price. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has recovered as expected, and the overseas miners' shipments have declined but are still at a high level this year. The supply pressure continues to increase, and the ore price is under pressure [3].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年11月5日)-20251105
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-05 01:21
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no specific industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to show a weak - oscillating trend in the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods. The core logic is that the supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened, leading to a weakening of the ore price. The high - valued ore price continues to be under pressure and weakens under the dominance of the real - world logic, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all described as weak - oscillating. The view reference is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is the weakening of the supply - demand pattern and the weak operation of the ore price [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Port inventories are rapidly accumulating, steel mill production is weakening, terminal consumption of ore is declining, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, with the weak demand pattern difficult to change, which continues to drag down the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, while the shipments of overseas miners have slightly declined from the high level, but the overall supply of foreign ore is still active. Coupled with the increase in domestic ore supply, the supply pressure of ore is relatively large. In summary, the supply of iron ore is high, while the demand continues to weaken, and the fundamentals of ore are not good [3].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年11月4日)-20251104
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-04 02:05
Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the real - world logic dominates, and the ore price is under pressure to fall [2]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is continuously decreasing, and the demand in the steel market remains weak. The supply of iron ore is high, and the high - valued ore price is prone to fall under the pressure of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term view is weak oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the intraday view is weak oscillation. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the real - world logic dominates, and the ore price is under pressure to fall [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of ore is decreasing, and the demand in the steel market remains weak. The arrival of ore at domestic ports has increased significantly, and although overseas miners' shipments have decreased, both remain at high levels. The supply of domestic ore has also increased. Overall, the supply of iron ore is high, and the high - valued ore price is prone to fall under the pressure of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251103
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-11-03 03:20
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The short - term and intraday view of Iron Ore 2601 is "shock and weak", and the medium - term view is "shock". It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are poor and the ore price will decline with shocks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term and intraday performance is "shock and weak", the medium - term is "shock". The view is to focus on the MA10 line support, due to poor fundamentals and the ore price's decline with shocks [2]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has little change. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore continues to decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market remain unresolved, so the ore demand is in a weak state. The arrival at domestic ports has dropped to a low level, but the shipments from overseas miners are high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will increase. Coupled with the increase in domestic ore supply, the ore supply remains at a high level. Although there are some positive factors supporting the ore price to return to a high level, the high supply and weakening demand lead to poor fundamentals, and the over - valued ore price will face downward pressure under the dominance of the real - world logic. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [3].
铁矿石周度数据(20251031)-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 05:12
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Under the disturbance of production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore is declining. With the steel market's industrial contradictions unresolved and seasonal production - restriction disturbances frequent, ore demand is expected to continue to decline, which may drag down the ore price. Although the arrival of ore at domestic ports has dropped significantly due to short - term weather factors, overseas miners' shipments remain high, and subsequent arrivals are expected to recover. Ore supply remains high while demand is weakening, so the fundamentals of the ore are not good, and the high - valued ore price is prone to fall back. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Inventory - 45 - port iron ore inventory is 14,542.48, with a week - on - week increase of 118.89, a monthly increase of 564.69, and a year - on - year decrease of 877.50 [1]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore inventory is 8,849.86, with a week - on - week decrease of 229.33, a monthly decrease of 1,186.93, and a year - on - year decrease of 148.04 [1]. Supply - 45 - port iron ore arrival volume is 2,029.10, with a week - on - week decrease of 490.30, a monthly decrease of 331.40, and a year - on - year decrease of 432.80. The significant drop in domestic port arrivals is mainly due to short - term weather factors, and overseas miners' shipments remain high, so subsequent arrivals are expected to recover [1][2]. - Global 19 - port iron ore shipment volume is 3,288.40, with a week - on - week decrease of 45.15, a monthly decrease of 186.99, and a year - on - year increase of 203.20 [1]. Demand - 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal production is 236.36, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.54, a monthly decrease of 5.45, and a year - on - year increase of 0.89. The daily average hot metal production and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills have decreased week - on - week, and the decline is expanding, indicating a clear weakening of demand [1][2]. - 247 steel mills' imported ore daily consumption is 291.62, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.84, a monthly decrease of 7.18, and a year - on - year increase of 1.07 [1]. - 45 - port daily average ore - clearing volume is 320.16, with a week - on - week increase of 7.51, a monthly decrease of 16.24, and a year - on - year increase of 0.04 [1]. - The weekly average of main - port iron ore transactions is 82.83, with a week - on - week decrease of 14.07, a monthly increase of 43.46, and a year - on - year decrease of 21.29 [1].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20251031
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-31 01:04
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The iron ore market has a poor fundamental situation with high supply and weakening demand, and the upward driving force is not strong. The high - valued price will continue to face downward pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile, the medium - term trend is also volatile, and the intraday trend is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level of the MA60 line. The core logic is that the continuous weakening of demand puts pressure on the ore price [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Under the influence of production restrictions, the terminal demand for ore is accelerating its decline, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated. Weak demand is likely to drag down the ore price. In terms of supply, the short - term arrival at domestic ports has declined, but the overseas miners' shipments remain high. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrival will bottom out and rebound, and domestic ore production is stabilizing, so the ore supply remains high [2].
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年10月27日)-20251027
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-27 02:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no content about the report industry investment rating in the provided documents. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market has a weak supply - demand pattern, with high - level supply and weakening demand. The high - valued ore price is under pressure, but market sentiment has improved. The ore price is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel products [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core logic is the weak supply - demand pattern, which makes the ore price under pressure [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The iron ore supply - demand pattern is weak. Steel mill production is weakening, terminal ore consumption is continuously declining with an expanding decline rate, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are only slightly alleviated. With the reappearance of production restrictions, the demand weakening trend remains unchanged. Meanwhile, domestic port ore arrivals and miners' shipments are at a high level, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, resulting in large supply pressure. The high - level supply and weakening demand lead to a poor fundamental situation for iron ore, and the high - valued ore price is under pressure [2].
基本面持续压制 铁矿石承压运行
Qi Huo Ri Bao· 2025-10-24 03:30
Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, iron ore prices have declined, with the main contract dropping from 809.5 yuan/ton to 760 yuan/ton, a cumulative decrease of 6.11%, indicating a return to the lower end of the fluctuation range [1] Supply Situation - The decline in iron ore prices is primarily due to several factors: weakened market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, reduced steel production leading to lower iron ore demand, and a weakening supply-demand balance reflected in increased port inventories [2] - Domestic port arrivals for iron ore were reported at 26.763 million tons, remaining high despite a week-on-week decrease of 4.678 million tons, with a significant year-on-year increase of 17.711 million tons [2] - Global iron ore shipments reached 33.335 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.2598 million tons, continuing to be at a high level for the year, and a year-on-year increase of 15.45% [2] Price Trends - The Platts iron ore price index averaged $105/ton in October, maintaining a relatively high level, while high prices have led to increased overseas shipments and high levels of floating inventory at sea [3] - Domestic mining production has also rebounded, further suppressing iron ore price trends [3] Demand Dynamics - Demand for iron ore has weakened, with poor performance in steel demand during the peak season, leading to reduced production by steel mills and a decline in iron ore consumption [4] - The average daily iron output from 247 steel mills was 2.4095 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease, indicating that while demand has decreased, it remains at a relatively high level compared to the year [4] - The profitability of steel mills has deteriorated, with only 55.41% of mills reporting profits, a decline of 12.99 percentage points over ten weeks, indicating ongoing challenges in the steel market [4][5] Overall Market Outlook - The iron ore market continues to face downward pressure due to high supply levels and unresolved industry conflicts in the steel market, leading to a weak demand outlook [6]
宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年10月24日)-20251024
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-24 01:15
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market presents a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high - valuation ore prices under pressure and showing a weak and volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2] - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and intraday trends are weakly volatile, the medium - term trend is volatile, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA60 line. The core logic is that demand has declined from its peak, causing ore prices to weaken under pressure [1] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term is weakly volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weakly volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, and the core logic is that demand has declined from its peak, causing ore prices to weaken under pressure. The calculation of the rise and fall amplitude is based on the night - session closing price for varieties with night - session trading and the previous day's closing price for varieties without night - session trading, with the day - session closing price as the end price. The definitions of rise and fall states are also provided [1] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore continues to weaken. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is declining with an expanding decline, and steel market industrial contradictions are only slightly alleviated with expected continued demand decline. At the same time, domestic port ore arrivals and miner shipments are at high levels, overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply has recovered, increasing supply pressure. Overall, supply is high while demand is weak, the fundamentals are weakening, and high - valuation ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly and volatilely [2]
宝城期货铁矿石早报:宝城期货铁矿石早报(2025年10月21日)-20251021
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-10-21 01:54
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The short - term view of Iron Ore 2601 is weak and volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak and volatile. Attention should be paid to the pressure at the MA5 line. The fundamental situation has weakened as expected, and the ore price has fallen from a high level [1]. - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand continues to decline from a high level, and the industrial contradictions in the steel market are not alleviated, so it will continue the downward trend. Meanwhile, domestic port ore arrivals have fallen from a high level, while miner shipments have increased. Overseas ore supply is active, and domestic ore supply is recovering, so the supply pressure continues to increase. The high - valued ore price is under pressure to weaken, but due to the high - level rigid demand, there is resistance to the decline. The short - term trend will continue the volatile decline, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety View Reference - For Iron Ore 2601, the short - term is weak and volatile, the medium - term is volatile, and the intraday is weak and volatile. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line, and the core logic is that the fundamentals have weakened as expected and the ore price has fallen from a high level [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mill production is weakening, ore demand is declining from a high level, and the steel market contradictions are not resolved. Domestic port ore arrivals have fallen from a high level, miner shipments have increased, overseas supply is active, and domestic supply is recovering. The high - valued ore price is under pressure to fall, but there is resistance due to high rigid demand. The short - term trend is a volatile decline, and steel mill production should be monitored [2].