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Investment Rating - The report raises the 2025 real GDP growth forecast for China from 4.9% to 5.0% based on government spending acceleration and commitment to economic targets [6][10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of China's manufacturing push in driving economic growth and highlights the expected annual growth of Chinese export volumes by 5-6% [9][10]. - It notes that the fiscal deficit is projected to widen by 1.0 percentage point of GDP in 2026, with total social financing stock growth expected to rise [9][10]. - The report discusses the ongoing focus on high-tech manufacturing and AI investment as a counterbalance to demographic and local government debt challenges [9][10]. Summary by Sections Current State of the Economy - The 2025 real GDP growth forecast has been raised to 5.0% due to increased government spending and commitment to economic targets [6]. 2026 Macro Views - The report anticipates a real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2026, which is significantly above market consensus [9]. - It expects the fiscal deficit to widen and further cuts in the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) and policy rates [9]. Medium- to Long-Term Views - Chinese export volumes are expected to grow by 5-6% annually, contributing to overall economic expansion [9]. - The report highlights the prioritization of manufacturing, technology, and security in China's 15th Five-Year Plan [9]. Economic Indicators - The report provides a detailed forecast of various economic indicators, including GDP growth, domestic demand, consumption, and inflation rates for the years 2025 to 2027 [13]. - It notes that household consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 4.6% in 2025, with government consumption at 4.0% [13]. Policy Measures - The report outlines several policy measures aimed at boosting consumption and investment, including a consumer goods trade-in program and increased government spending on infrastructure [81][82].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides a comprehensive update on the fixed - income market, including bond price movements, new issues, and macro - economic news. It maintains a buy recommendation on the FAEACO 12.814 Perp bond, which has gained about 20 pts in the past two weeks [2]. - SoftBank Group's new bond issues are analyzed, with estimated fair values for SOFTBK 61s and SOFTBK 65s at around 7.6% and 8.4% respectively [4][8][9]. 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Trading Desk Comments - Yesterday, the TW lifers/BBLTB sub curve/HYUELE curve/PETMK curve tightened by 1 - 3 bps. There were two - way flows on JP/KR/AU front - end FRNs from PBs [2]. - Japanese insurance hybrids and AT1s edged 0.1 pt firmer with light flows, while Yankee AT1s opened cautiously in London. BNP papers recovered after a previous plunge [2]. - Chinese IG benchmarks tightened by 1 - 2 bps. In Greater China higher - beta space, NWDEVL 28 - 31s were up 0.6 - 1.5 pts, but NWDEVL Perps were down 0.3 - 1.3 pts. FAEACO 12.814 Perp gained 0.4 pt [2]. - In Chinese properties, VNKRLE 27 - 29s decreased by 0.4 - 0.6 pt after Moody's downgrade. YUZHOU 27 lost 0.7 pt. In Southeast Asia, VLLPM 27 - 29s led the space and rose 3.2 - 4.4 pts [2]. - In LGFV space, there were mixed, light two - way flows. RMs and AMs were topping up IG USD and AAA - guaranteed issues, and flows on higher - yielding papers were sporadic [3]. Morning Update - This morning, the new ASBBNK 4.155 30 tightened 1 bp from initial issuance at T + 60, and ASBBNK Float 30 tightened 10 bps from RO at SOFR+90. The new GSCCOR 4.25 30 tightened 1 bp from pricing at T + 77 [4]. - The new GEZHOU 4.25 Perp traded up to 0.1 pt higher with light flows. SOFTBKs were unchanged, and LGELECs were unchanged after S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable [4]. Top Performers and Underperformers - Top performers included VLLPM 7 1/4 07/20/27 (price 69.2, change 4.4) and NWDEVL 4 1/2 05/19/30 (price 72.7, change 1.5). Top underperformers included NWDEVL 5 1/4 PERP (price 48.8, change - 1.3) and YUZHOU 7 06/30/27 (price 12.0, change - 0.7) [5]. Macro News Recap - On Tuesday, the S&P was flat (+0.00%), the Dow rose 0.47%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.16%. UST yields were lower, with 2/5/10/30 - year yields at 3.45%/3.56%/3.98%/4.55% [7]. Desk Analyst Comments on SoftBank - SoftBank Group proposes to issue 35.5NC5.5 and 40NC10 Reg S USD subordinated bonds (S&P: B+) and 37NC7 EUR subordinated bonds for general corporate purposes [8]. - The fair value of the new SOFTBK 61 (first call Apr'31) is estimated at around 7.6% vs IPT at 7.875% - 8%, and for the new SOFTBK 65 (first call Oct'35) at around 8.4% vs IPT at 8.5% - 8.625% [9]. - The bonds have step - up mechanisms, and will receive 50% equity credit from S&P and JCR until the first reset date. SoftBank has a track record of calling its bonds on the first call date [10]. - In Jun'25, SoftBank's investment portfolio was valued at about USD269.6 bn, with 76% in listed shares (about USD205 bn). It held cash of about USD25.3 bn and standalone net debts of about USD45.9 bn, with an LTV ratio of 17.0% [11][12]. - While it has completed refinancing for the current fiscal year, there is a medium - term refinancing requirement in 2028 - 31, but it has access to diverse funding channels [12]. Offshore Asia New Issues - Priced new issues include ASB Bank (USD500/300 mn, 5 - year, 4.155%/SOFR+90), China Energy Overseas Investment (USD100/100 mn, 3 - year/PerpNC5, 3.8%/4.25%), GS Caltex Corporation (USD300 mn, 5 - year, 4.25%), and Republic of Kazakhstan (USD1500 mn, 5 - year, 4.412%) [16]. - Pipeline new issues include Avation Plc, China Three Gorges Corporation, Softbank Group, and The Republic of Korea with various tenors and coupon rates [17]. News and Market Color - Yesterday, there were 158 onshore credit bonds issued with an amount of RMB156 bn. Month - to - date, 910 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB889 bn, a 31.1% yoy increase [18]. - S&P revised the outlook of LG Electronics to positive from stable, and the Republic of Indonesia is looking to price 5 - year/10 - year dim sum bonds tomorrow [18]. - Other corporate news includes S&P revising the outlook of Japfa Comfeed to stable from negative, NWD denying LME on perps, San Miguel obtaining a USD1.5 bn syndicated loan, Sun Hung Kai Properties announcing a USD10 bn debt instruments issuance programme, and Woodside Energy's 9M25 oil and gas output rising 5% yoy [25].

Core Insights - Bitcoin mining stock prices have surged recently, driven by market enthusiasm for miners engaging in AI ventures [1][7] Company Performance - Major bitcoin miners such as Bitdeer, Bitfarms, Hut 8, CleanSpark, and Core Scientific have seen significant price increases, with Bitdeer leading at a 27% rise [2] - Over the past week, Bitfarms has outperformed with a 66% increase, followed by Bitdeer at 29.5%, TeraWulf at 23.2%, Hut 8 at 21.4%, CleanSpark at 20.4%, and Cipher at 17.5% [3] - IREN has shown a remarkable performance, up 1,100% over the last six months, despite lagging behind peers in the weekly timeframe [4] Financial Developments - IREN has closed a $1 billion convertible note to support its AI business, with Cantor Fitzgerald setting a $100 price target based on its neocloud business and the potential of its Sweetwater campus [5] - Bitdeer announced plans to have 200 MW of critical IT load operational in Southeast Asia by the end of 2026, projecting an estimated annual recurring revenue of $2 billion [6] Market Trends - The bitcoin mining sector has been experiencing a strong upward trend since summer, largely due to the AI investment wave, leaving miners without AI or high-performance computing initiatives at a disadvantage [7]

AI Investment & Market Dynamics - The AI investment frenzy raises the question of whether it's AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) or market collapse [1] - OpenAI's potential $1 trillion infrastructure investment could significantly impact the global economy [1] - The podcast delves into the potential consequences of wagering the global economy on one company's success in AI [1] AGI & Technological Aspects - Discussion on the definition of AGI and factors making it less likely [1] - Examination of the disconnect between AI research and investment [1] - Consideration of Sora and copyright issues [1] Economic Impact & Financial Aspects - Analysis of the economic impact of AI investment [1] - Discussion on AI's contribution to US GDP growth [1] - Exploration of the economic consequences of AI's potential failure [1] Company Specifics - Details on OpenAI's massive computing deals and economics [1] - Information on the OpenAI and AMD deal [1] - Speculation on the future of AI companies' valuation [1]

AI Investment Trend - One year ago, approximately 20% of CEOs discussed AI investment as a possibility [1] - Currently, CEOs view AI investment as a certainty, focusing on implementation timing [1] - Companies are recognizing the potential impact of AI agents on their operations [1] Impact of AI - AI is expected to improve efficiencies within companies [2] - AI will influence how and what companies deliver to the market [2]

Core Insights - Economic policy uncertainty and tariff-related challenges are significantly impacting the manufacturing sector, leading to a contraction for the seventh consecutive month as indicated by the Institute for Supply Management's Purchasing Managers' Index [3] - Manufacturing executives are actively focusing on enhancing supply chain resilience through various strategies, including renegotiating supplier agreements and considering reshoring production [4][5] - A recent KPMG survey reveals that 63% of manufacturing CEOs identify supply chain challenges as a barrier to innovation, while 68% prioritize AI investments, with 69% planning to allocate up to 20% of their budget to AI in the coming year [8] Group 1 - Economic policy uncertainty is creating a challenging environment for manufacturers, with tariff uncertainty weakening demand [3] - The manufacturing sector has contracted for seven months, reflecting the negative impact of tariffs on exports and orders [3] - Executives are prioritizing supply chain resilience, employing strategies such as dynamic pricing and financial hedging [4][5] Group 2 - Some manufacturers are investing significantly in reshoring, with General Motors planning to spend over $10 billion in the next two years [5] - Restructuring supply chains is less common than financial engineering due to the time and costs involved [6] - The unpredictability of tariffs complicates long-term supply chain changes, as noted by industry experts [7] Group 3 - A KPMG survey indicates that 63% of manufacturing CEOs see supply chain disruptions as a hindrance to innovation [8] - Despite these challenges, 68% of CEOs are prioritizing AI investments [8] - 69% of surveyed CEOs plan to allocate up to 20% of their budget to AI initiatives over the next year [8]

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of post-2000 investors is reshaping the venture capital landscape, as they bring unique perspectives and a deep understanding of the entrepreneurial spirit of their generation, particularly in the context of the AI investment era [5][28]. Group 1: Characteristics of Post-2000 Investors - Post-2000 investors are characterized by their ability to relate to and understand the needs of post-2000 entrepreneurs, marking a significant shift in the investment landscape [5][18]. - They are often seen as "AI Native," having grown up in a digital environment that allows them to leverage technology in their investment strategies [20][28]. - This generation of investors is noted for their fresh perspectives and reduced biases, which can lead to innovative investment approaches [20][26]. Group 2: Motivations for Entering Venture Capital - Many post-2000 investors are driven by a desire to participate in transformative projects and to learn from the entrepreneurial process [7][8]. - The appeal of venture capital lies in its dynamic nature, providing continuous learning opportunities and the chance to engage with groundbreaking technologies [8][14]. Group 3: Investment Strategies and Methodologies - Post-2000 investors emphasize the importance of understanding people, business models, and technology in their investment decisions [15][26]. - They recognize the need for adaptability in the rapidly changing landscape, particularly in the AI sector, where the ability to pivot is crucial for success [16][19]. - Their investment strategies tend to be cautious, often reflecting the influence of their mentors rather than aggressive or radical approaches [17][20]. Group 4: Perspectives on Post-2000 Entrepreneurs - Post-2000 entrepreneurs are viewed as bold and innovative, often emerging ahead of market expectations, which presents unique investment opportunities [18][19]. - The current venture capital environment is seen as underestimating the potential of these young entrepreneurs, who possess both the courage and capability to navigate complex challenges [18][19]. Group 5: Future Aspirations and Industry Outlook - Post-2000 investors express a desire to grow within the venture capital space before potentially transitioning to entrepreneurial roles in the future [27]. - The current investment climate is perceived as promising, with expectations of significant developments driven by AI and other emerging technologies [28][29].

Core Insights - The essence of leadership is making decisive choices in difficult situations, as hesitation can lead to worse outcomes [3][14][22] - Successful leadership involves making unpopular decisions that create value, rather than conforming to group consensus [7][22] - The journey of entrepreneurship is filled with struggles and pain, which are essential for growth and success [12][33] Leadership and Decision-Making - Leaders must develop the mental strength to make choices in the face of adversity, often opting for the "less bad" option [4][14] - The biggest mistake a CEO can make is to hesitate, especially when both options seem unfavorable [13][14] - Effective leadership is about influencing those who do not report directly to the leader, emphasizing the importance of indirect impact [7][22] Entrepreneurship and Founder Psychology - A non-rational desire to create something meaningful is essential for entrepreneurship; pursuing money alone is insufficient [23][24] - Founders must possess a vision that transcends financial gain, focusing on making a significant impact [24] - The ability to confront fears and make tough decisions is crucial for a CEO's success [13][16] Building Effective Teams - A CEO's role is to assemble a world-class team rather than trying to develop every individual into a top performer [28][29] - The transition from a technical role to a CEO requires a shift in mindset, focusing on high-level decision-making rather than micromanagement [28][29] - Leaders should prioritize finding individuals who can elevate the company rather than attempting to improve underperformers [28][29] Investment and Market Insights - The common wisdom of quickly building a senior management team to achieve product-market fit can lead to chaos if not managed carefully [39][40] - Experienced hires can accelerate business growth, contradicting the notion that startups should avoid seasoned professionals [40] - The perception of a bubble in the AI sector may not reflect reality; often, when everyone believes there is a bubble, it is not the case [50][51][52]

Company Overview - Marvell is a $50 billion technology company that experienced a nearly 20% decline in stock price following its earnings call, indicating investor dissatisfaction with the information presented [2]. Investment Strategy - The Value Portfolio focuses on constructing retirement portfolios through a fact-based research strategy, which includes thorough analysis of 10Ks, analyst commentary, market reports, and investor presentations [2]. - The company invests real money in the stocks it recommends, emphasizing a commitment to its investment strategy [2]. Market Position - Despite the post-earnings decline, Marvell is viewed as well-positioned in the market, suggesting potential for recovery or growth in the future [2].