Core Insights - Etsy, Inc. shares declined following the release of its third-quarter earnings report, despite some analysts maintaining a positive outlook and raising price targets for the stock [1] Group 1: Analyst Insights - Canaccord Genuity analyst Maria Ripps noted a 2% year-over-year decline in the company's marketplace Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS), but highlighted a nearly 40% acceleration in GMS growth at Depop. She also mentioned that new machine learning models in the app discovery feed resulted in double-digit engagement gains [2] - Needham analyst Bernie McTernan emphasized that the partnership with OpenAI positions Etsy as a leader in agentic commerce, with ChatGPT integration facilitating direct platform purchases through instant checkout, which enhances conversion rates and brand visibility [2] - McTernan observed that GMS contraction is decreasing faster than expected, with Q3 GMS down 2.4% year-over-year compared to a 4.8% decline in Q2, supported by improved app engagement and buyer reactivation [3] Group 2: Price Target Adjustments - Canaccord Genuity maintained a Buy rating on Etsy and raised its price target from $76 to $80 [2] - Needham & Co. also reiterated its Buy rating on Etsy, increasing the price target from $72 to $76 [3] Group 3: Market Conditions and Risks - Analysts see potential for further upside if macroeconomic trends improve or if Etsy's unique growth initiatives attract more buyers or sellers [3] - Risks include intensified competition, particularly from Chinese e-commerce players, and ongoing macroeconomic challenges [3]

Core Insights - Visa and Barclays have expanded their long-standing partnership to enhance payment solutions across various sectors, including retail and corporate banking [2][3] Group 1: Partnership Details - The new agreement encompasses issuing and acquiring services across Barclays' retail, corporate, business, and private banking sectors in the U.K. and the U.S. [2] - Visa will continue to support Barclays' card credentials in the U.K. while promoting growth in U.S. retail issuing and expanding into new markets [2][3] Group 2: Innovation and Technology - The partnership aims to explore new opportunities for innovation in payment types, channels, and technologies, leveraging Visa's value-added services [3] - Visa's Intelligent Commerce initiative will facilitate the integration of tokenized payments and AI-driven transaction capabilities, enhancing customer experiences [5] Group 3: Emerging Payment Trends - The agreement focuses on capitalizing on emerging payment experiences, such as account-to-account payments and agentic commerce [4] - The rise of agentic AI is transforming digital commerce, requiring merchants to adapt their data and policies for machine readability [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consolidated GMS for Q3 2025 was $2.72 billion, exceeding guidance, with a year-over-year growth of 0.9% when excluding Reverb [26] - Consolidated revenue grew 6.1% year over year to $678 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $172 million, representing a margin of 25.4% [27][36] - Etsy Marketplace GMS declined 2.4% year over year, but improved by 300 basis points sequentially from Q2 to Q3 [27][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Etsy Marketplace GMS was $2.43 billion, down 2.4% year over year, while Depop's GMS grew 39.4% year over year to $292 million [14][27] - Services revenue increased by 12.7% year over year, driven by growth in on-site ad revenue at both Etsy and Depop [32] - Etsy Ads experienced meaningful growth, supported by model enhancements that optimized seller budget pacing and improved ad quality [33] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active buyer count was 86.6 million, down 5% year over year, but new and reactivated buyers totaled 11.4 million for the quarter [29] - GMS per active buyer was stable at $1.21, with encouraging month-by-month improvements in purchase frequency and average item values [30] - The app's contribution to total GMS increased to 46%, with app users visiting five times more often than non-app users [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on four strategic priorities: enhancing customer discovery, deepening loyalty, amplifying seller creativity, and leveraging AI for personalization [17][22] - A partnership with OpenAI aims to integrate Etsy listings into ChatGPT, enhancing the shopping experience and driving incremental growth [19][45] - The company is reallocating marketing spend towards upper funnel channels to spark engagement and inspiration, particularly during the holiday season [20][62] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed cautious optimism regarding consumer spending, anticipating a stable macro environment for Q4 [36][60] - The company expects Q4 consolidated GMS to be between $3.5 and $3.65 billion, indicating further sequential improvement [37] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining profitability while also being willing to invest in growth opportunities, particularly for Depop [65][90] Other Important Information - The company completed the sale of Reverb on June 2, impacting year-over-year comparisons [26] - The transition in leadership from Josh Silverman to Kruti Patel Goyal is set to take place on January 1, 2026, with a focus on continuing growth and innovation [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: About the OpenAI partnership and its integration - Management highlighted the excitement around the OpenAI partnership, emphasizing that Etsy listings will be integrated into ChatGPT, allowing seamless transactions through Etsy's payment system [41][45] Question: Engagement improvements on the app - Management discussed meaningful investments in reshaping the app's home screen to enhance discovery, resulting in increased engagement metrics [50][52] Question: Fourth quarter guidance and holiday opportunities - Management noted that while consumer outlook remains uncertain, they expect continued progress in initiatives and a strong holiday campaign focused on the unique value of Etsy [60][62] Question: Balancing traffic from AI platforms versus direct mobile - Management indicated that both channels can coexist and benefit Etsy, with agentic commerce providing additional exposure to potential buyers [87][89] Question: Investments planned for Depop and margin compression - Management confirmed that the brand campaign for Depop is a long-term investment aimed at expanding awareness, which may compress margins in the near term but is expected to yield significant long-term benefits [90][91]

Core Insights - The collaboration between Commerce and PayPal introduces agentic commerce services, enhancing the shopping experience through AI-driven capabilities [2][4][9] - Merchants using Feedonomics and BigCommerce can optimize their product data for AI channels, improving visibility and conversion rates [4][5][8] Group 1: Agentic Commerce Features - PayPal's agentic commerce services allow seamless checkout experiences for merchants integrated with BigCommerce [2][3] - The integration simplifies the buying journey, enabling shoppers to maintain control over their data while completing purchases [3][6] Group 2: Data Optimization and Merchant Benefits - Feedonomics transforms raw product data into AI-ready content, ensuring compatibility with various AI platforms [4][5] - Merchants like PacSun and Pickleball Central benefit from enhanced product visibility and prioritization in AI-powered search engines [5][8] Group 3: Market Adaptation and Future Outlook - The partnership aims to prepare merchants for the evolving landscape of AI-driven shopping, ensuring their product data remains connected and accurate [9] - Commerce is focused on delivering scalable solutions that integrate quickly into new discovery channels, positioning merchants for success in the AI economy [9][12]

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Core Insights - PayPal shares surged over 10% in premarket trading after reporting stronger-than-expected third-quarter results and announcing a strategic partnership with OpenAI [1][4] - The company reported adjusted earnings of $1.34 per share, a 12% increase year-over-year, and revenue of $8.42 billion, a 7% increase, both surpassing analyst expectations [3][4] - PayPal announced its first-ever shareholder dividend with a target payout ratio of 10% of adjusted net income [4] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings for the September quarter were $1.34 per share, exceeding Wall Street's estimate of $1.20 [3] - Revenue rose to $8.42 billion, surpassing analyst forecasts of $8.24 billion [3] - Venmo, PayPal's peer-to-peer payment platform, achieved a 20% revenue growth [3] Strategic Developments - PayPal formed a major e-commerce partnership with OpenAI, allowing over 800 million weekly ChatGPT users to make purchases using PayPal's digital wallet [4] - This partnership aims to position PayPal within the emerging "agentic commerce" ecosystem, where AI-powered assistants facilitate direct transactions [4] Market Outlook - Wall Street analysts maintain a cautious outlook on PayPal, with most holding a 'Hold' rating despite moderate upside expectations over the next 12 months [5] - The average price target for PayPal's stock is $80.60, indicating a potential upside of 14.73%, with forecasts ranging from $62 to $105 [6][8] - Among analysts, 10 have issued a Buy rating, 15 recommend holding, and 3 suggest selling the stock [8]

PayPal (NasdaqGS:PYPL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 28, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlex Chriss - CEOJamie Miller - CFO and COOSteve Winoker - Chief Investor Relations OfficerConference Call ParticipantsHarshita Rawat - AnalystDan Dolev - AnalystDarrin Peller - AnalystJason Kupferberg - AnalystSanjay Sakhrani - AnalystTien-Tsin Huang - AnalystWill Nance - AnalystTimothy Chiodo - AnalystOperatorGood morning and welcome to PayPal's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. My name is Sarah, and I ...

PayPal (NasdaqGS:PYPL) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 28, 2025 08:00 AM ET Speaker2Good morning and welcome to PayPal's third quarter 2025 earnings conference call. My name is Sarah, and I will be your conference operator today. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, PayPal's Chief Investor Relations Officer. Please go ahead.Speaker5Thanks, Sarah. Welcome to PayPal's third quarter earnings call. I'm joine ...

Industry Trend - Agentic commerce is identified as the leading use case for crypto in the current cycle [1] - Payments and AI are driving a bull market [1] Company Strategy & Partnership - PayPal is integrating payments and commerce into ChatGPT [1] - PayPal Ventures led an $18 million round for GoKiteAI in September [1] - Millions of businesses relying on PayPal will soon have a path to make products be [2] User Impact - Hundreds of millions of ChatGPT and PayPal users will be able to checkout in just a few taps [1]

Core Insights - PayPal has entered into a partnership with OpenAI, allowing ChatGPT users to purchase products through its platform, resulting in a 10% increase in its shares [1] - The company has raised its profit forecast for the year, anticipating adjusted EPS between $5.35 and $5.39, up from a previous range of $5.15 to $5.30 [5] - PayPal announced its first-ever dividend of 14 cents per share, representing a targeted payout ratio of 10% of adjusted profit [5] Partnership with OpenAI - The collaboration will connect PayPal's global merchant network to ChatGPT, enabling businesses to sell products and services within the app, which has over 800 million weekly active users [2] - AI shopping tools are emerging as a significant trend in online retail, allowing for autonomous product research, comparison, and purchasing [2][3] - Analysts view this "agentic commerce" as a potential catalyst for leveraging PayPal's user base and driving growth in a new commerce platform [3] Business Strategy and Performance - PayPal's CEO emphasized the shift from a defensive to an offensive strategy, focusing on profitability and high-margin businesses [6] - The company has experienced resilient payment volumes despite inflation and economic challenges, indicating the strength of its core business [7] - The integration with OpenAI is expected to enhance product discoverability and purchasing options for consumers [4]