Core Viewpoint - The article presents the 2025 national economic operation data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, highlighting key economic indicators and their year-on-year changes. Group 1: Economic Indicators - GDP for 2025 is projected at 14,018.79 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [4] - The industrial added value above designated size is expected to grow by 5.9% in 2025 [4] - The added value of the service industry is anticipated to increase by 5.4% [4] Group 2: Consumer and Investment Data - The total retail sales of consumer goods for 2025 is estimated at 501.202 billion yuan, showing a growth of 3.7% compared to the previous year [4] - Real estate development investment is projected at 82.788 billion yuan, indicating a significant decline of 17.2% [4] - The sales area of newly built commercial housing is expected to be 88,101 million square meters, down by 8.7% year-on-year [4] Group 3: Price and Employment Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to remain flat compared to the previous year [4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to decrease by 2.6% [4] - The total import and export volume of goods is estimated at 454.687 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 3.8% [4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate is projected to be 5.2%, an increase of 0.1% [5] - The per capita disposable income of residents is expected to reach 43,377 yuan, with a nominal growth of 5.0% [4]

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Trends - The overall consumer market in 2025 is stable and gradually improving, with CPI showing monthly fluctuations and a year-on-year increase of 0.8% in December, the highest since March 2023 [2] - Food prices decreased by 1.5% for the year, impacting CPI by approximately 0.27 percentage points, with significant declines in pork and egg prices [3] - Core CPI has been rising since March 2025, maintaining a year-on-year increase of over 1% for four consecutive months, reaching 1.2% in December [4] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI for 2025 decreased by 2.6%, but the decline narrowed in the second half of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of only 1.9% in December [5] - The optimization of market competition and capacity management in key industries has led to a recovery in prices, particularly in coal and new energy sectors [6] - External factors, such as rising international metal prices, have contributed to price increases in related domestic industries, with non-ferrous metal mining prices up by 17.2% [7]

2026年1月19日,国家统计局数据显示,2025年,国民经济运行顶 压前行、向新向优,高质量发展取得新成效,经济社会发展主要目标 任务圆满实现,"十四五"胜利收官。 2025年 国民经济成绩单出炉 | 全国城镇调查 失业率 | 5.2% | 0.1% (百分点) | | --- | --- | --- | | · CPI | | 0.0% | | · PPI | | -2.6% | | 居民人均 | 43377元 | 5.0% | | 可支配收入 | | | | *人均可支配收入同比数据为扣除价格因素实际增长数据 | | | | 原題出 | | 参考来源:国家统计局官网 | | | | 校对 张骁 制图 丁源 | | 经济指标 | 绝对量 | 同比变动 | | --- | --- | --- | | GDP | 1401879亿元 | 5.0% | | 规模以上 | | 5.9% | | 工业增加值 | | | | 服务业 增加值 | | 5.4% | | 固定资产 | | | | 投资(不含农户) | 485186亿元 | -3.8% | | 房地产 | | | | 开发投资 | 82788亿元 | -1 ...

Group 1: Economic Activity Index - The China High-Frequency Economic Activity Index (YHEI) was 1.05 as of January 13, 2026, a decrease of 0.09 from January 6, 2026. The decline was primarily attributed to a drop in the coastal coal freight index by 0.09 [2][1] - The import dry bulk freight index remained stable compared to the previous week [2] Group 2: Monetary Policy - As of January 13, 2026, the central bank net withdrew 77.8 billion yuan through open market operations. The reverse repurchase amount for the week was 517.2 billion yuan, with 595 billion yuan maturing [4][5] Group 3: Interest Rates and Financing - The overnight interbank rate rose by 17 basis points to 1.5% over the past week, and the seven-day repurchase rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.57% [9][10] - The one-year swap rate increased by 1.43 basis points to 1.52%, while the five-year swap rate decreased by 0.42 basis points to 1.64% [12][9] - The yields on one-year, five-year, and ten-year government bonds fell by 10, 2.23, and 3.1 basis points to 1.26%, 1.64%, and 1.85%, respectively [15][9] Group 4: Industrial Sector - As of January 13, 2026, the price of steel billets increased by 1.37% week-on-week, while cement prices decreased by 1.12% [22][23] - The operating rate of short-process steel mills rose from 67.71% to 70.83% over the past month [22] - The operating rate for full steel tire production decreased to 58.02%, down from 58.15% the previous week [22] Group 5: Shipping and Real Estate - The coastal bulk freight index decreased by 5.98 points to 1012.77 points as of January 13, 2026 [30] - In first-tier cities, new and second-hand housing transaction areas increased by 0.05% and 32.04%, respectively [31][33] - The land transaction area in 100 cities was 12.64 million square meters, a week-on-week decrease of 63.63% [31] Group 6: Consumer Prices - In December 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with urban prices increasing by 0.9% and rural prices by 0.6% [39][41] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 1.9% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [39][41] Group 7: Global Perspective - The US dollar index rose by 0.58 points to 99.18, while the RMB/USD exchange rate decreased by 48 basis points to 6.9765 [42][44] - The VIX index increased by 1.23 points to 15.98 [49]

中国人民银行副行长邹澜今天在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从今年看，不论从内部、外部约束来看，降 准降息还有一定空间。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，2026年国内的 CPI、 PPI水平会温和回升， 但总体上还会处在偏低水平，这也为今年实施政策性利率下调提供了空间，今年之内央行有可能下调政 策利率20~30个基点，也就是0.2~0.3个百分点。 中国人民银行副行长邹澜今天在国新办新闻发布会上表示，从今年看，不论从内部、外部约束来看，降 准降息还有一定空间。东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青认为，2026年国内的 CPI、 PPI水平会温和回升， 但总体上还会处在偏低水平，这也为今年实施政策性利率下调提供了空间，今年之内央行有可能下调政 策利率20~30个基点，也就是0.2~0.3个百分点。 ...

每经AI快讯，1月15日，法国去年12月CPI同比增长0.8%，预期0.8%；去年12月CPI环比增长0.1%，预期 0.1%。 ...

最新公布的 CPI 数据再次印证了许多美国家庭在 2025 年的切身感受：通胀虽已远离疫情期间的高点，但价格压力依然挥之不去。根据 CBS News 报道，美 国 12 月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨 2.7%，与 11 月持平，也基本符合市场预期。 这一 CPI 读数为 2025 年画下句点。尽管整体经济表现出一定韧性，就业市场保持稳定，但持续上涨的生活成本仍对消费者形成明显挤压。对政策制定者、 投资者以及普通家庭而言，CPI 依旧是衡量经济健康状况的关键指标。 原因之一在于零售商吸收了部分成本压力，从而抑制了 CPI 的进一步上行。这也反映出 CPI 并非单一政策变量的直接结果，而是多方力量博弈后的综合体 现。 CPI 用于衡量一篮子常见消费品和服务价格的变化，包括食品、住房、服装与交通等。12 月 CPI 同比上涨 2.7%，略高于 FactSet 调查中经济学家预计的 2.6%。 根据 CBS News，这一结果表明，通胀在年末并未进一步缓解，而是进入相对"黏性"的阶段。价格上涨并非全面扩散，而是集中在部分核心消费领域，使得 CPI 所反映的通胀体验因人而异。 从宏观角度来看，12 月 CPI 反 ...

Group 1: Economic Growth Production - Power plant daily consumption is higher than the same period last year. On January 13, the average daily consumption of 6 major power generation groups was 826,000 tons, a 2.7% decrease from January 6. On January 6, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.278 million tons, a 9.6% increase from December 30 [5][12]. - The blast furnace operating rate has generally recovered moderately. On January 9, the national blast furnace operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 2; the capacity utilization rate was 86.1%, a 0.8 - percentage - point increase from January 2. However, the blast furnace operating rate of Tangshan steel mills decreased by 3.7 percentage points [5][16]. - The tire operating rate has declined for two consecutive weeks. On January 8, the operating rate of all - steel truck tires was 58.0%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from January 1; the operating rate of semi - steel car tires was 65.9%, a 2.4 - percentage - point decrease from January 1 [5][18]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to decline. On January 8, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 90.5%, a 0.4 - percentage - point increase from January 1, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 57.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point decrease from January 8 [5][18]. Demand - The sales volume of new homes in 30 cities has weakened month - on - month. From January 1 - 13, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 152,000 square meters, a 44.9% decrease from the same period in December, a 41.8% decrease from January of last year, and a 40.8% decrease from January 2024 [5][23]. - The retail growth of the auto market is weak. In January, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year [5][26]. - Steel prices are oscillating strongly. On January 13, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil changed by +0.6%, +1.3%, - 0.3%, and +0.1% respectively compared to January 6 [5][33]. - Cement prices have hit a new low. On January 13, the national cement price index decreased by 1.1% compared to January 6. The cement prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% respectively, performing slightly better than the national average [5][34]. - The rebound strength of glass prices has increased. On January 13, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,119 yuan/ton, an 0.8% increase from January 6 [5][39]. - The container shipping freight rate index has shown a pattern of short - term decline and long - term increase. On January 9, the CCFI index increased by 4.2% compared to December 26, while the SCFI index decreased by 0.5% [5][43]. Group 2: Inflation CPI - The rebound strength of pork prices is weakening. On January 13, the average wholesale price of pork was 18.0 yuan/kg, a 0.3% increase from January 6. Since January, the average wholesale price of pork has increased by 2.0% month - on - month [5][47]. - The agricultural product price index has declined moderately. On January 13, the agricultural product wholesale price index decreased by 0.9% compared to January 6. Since January, the index has increased by 4.0% year - on - year but decreased by 0.6% month - on - month [5][52]. PPI - Oil prices have reached the highest level since October. On January 13, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were 68.8 and 61.2 dollars/barrel respectively, an 8.4% and 7.0% increase from January 6 [5][55]. - Copper and aluminum prices have continued to rise. On January 13, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.1% and 2.3% respectively compared to January 6. Since January, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum have increased by 10.4% and 7.0% month - on - month respectively [5][59]. - The domestic commodity index has changed from a decline to an increase month - on - month. On January 13, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index increased by 1.2% compared to January 6, while the CRB index decreased by 1.5% [5][59].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In December, the CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight rise in consumer prices but remaining in a low range[7] - The low base effect is the main factor driving the CPI increase, with household appliance prices rising significantly, although overall consumer demand remains weak[9] - Food prices rose by 1.1% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable prices seeing the highest increase at 18.2%[13] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI decreased by 1.9% year-on-year in December, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a stabilization in industrial prices[29] - Raw material prices increased, contributing to a reduction in the rate of decline for the PPI, while the demand for industrial products remains insufficient[29] - Prices in the non-ferrous metal sector rose significantly, with mining prices increasing by 24.0% and smelting prices by 10.8% year-on-year, reflecting a shift towards higher technology industries[30] Group 3: Future Outlook - The CPI is expected to rise moderately in 2026 due to the low base effect and policies aimed at stabilizing growth and promoting consumption, despite ongoing economic pressures[38] - The PPI may also see an upward trend in 2026, driven by increased competition for resources and policy adjustments, although internal economic pressures persist[38]

Core Insights - The consumer price index (CPI) in Zhengzhou increased by 1.2% year-on-year and 0.6% month-on-month as of December 2025 [1] Price Changes Overview - Year-on-year price changes for December 2025 include: - Food prices increased by 1.3% - Non-food prices increased by 1.2% - Consumer goods prices increased by 1.1% - Industrial goods prices increased by 1.3% - Service prices increased by 1.4% [1] - Among the eight categories of goods and services, six experienced price increases while two saw declines: - Food and tobacco prices increased by 0.9% - Clothing prices increased by 2.7% - Housing prices decreased by 0.3% - Daily necessities and services increased by 0.5% - Transportation and communication prices decreased by 1.8% - Education, culture, and entertainment prices increased by 1.7% - Medical care prices increased by 3.3% - Other goods and services prices surged by 18.5% [1] Month-on-Month Price Changes - Compared to November 2025, the CPI rose by 0.6%: - Food prices increased by 1.1% - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% - Consumer goods prices increased by 1.0% - Industrial goods prices increased by 1.2% - Service prices remained unchanged [1] - In the eight categories of goods and services, six saw price increases while two remained stable: - Food and tobacco prices increased by 0.7% - Clothing prices increased by 0.1% - Housing prices remained unchanged - Daily necessities and services increased by 0.2% - Transportation and communication prices increased by 2.5% - Education, culture, and entertainment prices increased by 0.3% - Medical care prices remained unchanged - Other goods and services prices increased by 3.0% [1]