英国预算责任办公室(OBR)经济和财政展望：2029-2030财年预算盈余预计为217亿英镑，3月时预测为 99亿英镑。预计预算案增税政策到2029-30财年将增加261亿英镑的税收收入。将中期生产率增长预期从 1.3%下调至1.0%。预计2025年GDP增长率为1.5%，高于3月份的1.0%。美国和全球贸易政策的未来走向 仍然存在很大的不确定性，许多贸易伙伴面临关税上调的威胁。未来五年计划削减的借贷规模中，约四 分之三将通过增税来实现。预计英国政府在2029-2030财年实现当前预算平衡的财政目标。 ...

德意志银行预计，2026年美国GDP增长率为2.4%，2026年全球GDP增长率为3.1%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

Core Insights - As of October 1, Azerbaijan's foreign exchange reserves exceeded $81.5 billion, reflecting a 14.7% increase since the beginning of the year, sufficient to cover 37 months of imports [1] - The public debt stands at 253.7 billion manats ($14.92 billion), which is 19.5% of GDP, with internal debt at 170.5 billion manats ($10.03 billion) and external debt at 83.2 billion manats ($4.89 billion) [1] - The Central Bank forecasts a GDP growth rate of 2.2% for 2025, with the non-oil and gas sector expected to grow by 3.7%, and a GDP growth rate of 2% for 2026, with the non-oil and gas sector projected to grow by 4.4% [1]

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate has taken a crucial step towards ending a record-length government shutdown, with several moderate Democrats breaking party leadership's blockade to support a deal [2] - The Senate passed a procedural motion to advance the bill with a vote of 60 to 40, but the final vote timing remains uncertain [2] - The agreement framework includes full-year budgets for the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Veterans Affairs, and Congress itself, while funding for other government departments will be maintained until January 30 of the following year [2] Group 2 - The shutdown crisis is causing an estimated economic loss of approximately $15 billion per week for the U.S. economy [3] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that by mid-November, the shutdown could reduce the annualized quarterly GDP growth rate by 1.5 percentage points [3] - Consumer confidence index has dropped to a three-year low due to anxiety stemming from the shutdown, inflation, and the job market [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Russia projects a GDP growth rate of 0.5% to 1.5% for the year 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The forecast indicates a modest economic recovery for Russia in the coming years, reflecting cautious optimism amid ongoing geopolitical and economic challenges [1]

Core Insights - The World Bank's report predicts Congo (Brazzaville)'s GDP growth rates of 2.9% for 2025 and 3.2% for 2026, a downward revision of 0.4 percentage points from the IMF's earlier forecast of 3.3% for 2025 [1] Economic Indicators - The fiscal budget balance as a percentage of GDP is projected to be 2.7% in 2024, 3.0% in 2025, and 3.4% in 2026, indicating a growth trend [1] - Public debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to decrease from 93.5% in 2024 to 89.2% in 2025, and further to 83.9% in 2026, showing a declining trend [1] - Overall, the report presents a moderately positive outlook on the economic situation in Congo [1]

Core Viewpoint - Brazil's benchmark interest rate is expected to decrease to 12.25% by the end of 2026, while the current rate is projected to remain at 15% for this year [1] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for this year is anticipated to be 2.16%, with a decrease to 1.80% by 2026 [1] - The forecast for the USD to BRL exchange rate remains unchanged at 5.50 BRL for 2025 and 5.60 BRL for 2026 [1] Central Bank's Position - The Central Bank of Brazil emphasizes the need for caution due to uncertainties in the current environment and will continue to assess whether maintaining high interest rates is sufficient to bring inflation back to target levels [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs report indicates an increased likelihood of a U.S. economic acceleration, driven by a resilient labor market, expectations of fiscal stimulus, and a loose financial environment [1] - The latest data on initial jobless claims shows improvement, leading Goldman Sachs' global investment research team to forecast a 2.6% GDP growth rate for the third quarter, which will support growth in the first half of next year [1] - The prospect of economic acceleration will influence Federal Reserve monetary policy, especially with the upcoming appointment of a new chair [1] - Goldman Sachs notes that the monetary policy path for 2025 and 2026 may differ significantly [1] - The firm predicts that the policy interest rate will gradually normalize to 3% - 3.5% for the remainder of this year, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut in both October and December to avoid overly restricting the labor market [1] - Future monetary policy will heavily depend on the policy preferences of the new chair [1]

Core Viewpoint - The IMF projects that Vietnam's GDP growth rate will slow to 6.5% in 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, despite a strong rebound expected in 2024 with a growth rate of 7.09% [1] Economic Outlook - In 2024, Vietnam's economy is expected to rebound strongly, driven by exports, foreign direct investment, and supportive policies, achieving a growth rate of 7.09% [1] - The positive momentum is anticipated to continue into the first half of 2025, with GDP growth projected at 7.5%, supported by prior export investments, accelerated credit growth, and significant government spending [1] Trade Relations Impact - The economic outlook for Vietnam is heavily dependent on the outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., alongside increasing uncertainties in global trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The expected slowdown in economic growth to 6.5% in 2025 is attributed to the effects of U.S. tariff policies throughout the year and the anticipated cancellation of most government one-time stimulus measures [1] Future Projections - Further economic growth deceleration is expected in 2026 following the trends established in 2025 [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **"anti-involution" policy** targeting industries such as **electric vehicles** and **solar energy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **"anti-involution" policy** addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the **2021 real estate market downturn** and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on **downstream price pressures** in advanced industries, addressing **private sector overcapacity**, and considering the macroeconomic context of **high debt** and **aging population** [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include **supply-side cleanup** and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - **Trade credit plan** of **138 billion RMB** [3]. - **National fertility subsidies** totaling **100 billion RMB** [4]. - **Tuition fee reductions** amounting to **30 billion RMB** [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the **actual GDP growth rate** may fall below **4.5%** in the second half of **2025**, with a **nominal GDP growth rate** around **3.5%** and a **GDP deflator index** expected to remain low at **-0.8% to -0.9%** [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)** and **Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. - Stability in **corporate profit margins** and **bank net interest margins**. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like **U.S. tariffs** negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from **September 2024** is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].