（原标题：预计2026年巴西的基准利率将降至12.25%） 巴西《Infomoney》9月25日报道，根据巴西央行公布焦点公告调查显示，预计2026年底，巴西的基 准利率将降至12.25%。市场对今年的基准利率预期将维持在当前的15%水平。巴西央行强调当前环境存 在不确定性，需要保持谨慎，并将继续评估长期维持高利率是否足以使通胀率回到目标区间。此外，预 计今年GDP增长率维持在2.16%，2026年为1.80%。对美元汇率预测保持不变，分别为5.50雷亚尔（2025 年）和5.60雷亚尔（2026年）。 ...

【高盛报告：美国重新加速可能性上升，影响美联储货币政策】9月29日，高盛最新报告显示，美国重 新加速可能性上升。劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预期和宽松金融环境等多重利好因素是主因。最新首次 申请失业救济人数数据向好，高盛全球投资研究部门预测，第三季度美国GDP增长率将达2.6%，为明 年上半年增长提供支撑。重新加速前景将影响美联储货币政策，尤其在新任主席人选将出炉之际。高盛 指出，2025年与2026年美联储货币政策路径或差异较大。高盛预测，今年剩余时间政策利率将逐步正常 化至3 - 3.5%，预计10月与12月各降息25个基点，避免过度限制劳动力市场。明年货币政策则高度依赖 新主席政策倾向。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 本文由 Al 算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 和讯财经 hexun.con 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 ...

Core Viewpoint - The IMF projects that Vietnam's GDP growth rate will slow to 6.5% in 2025 due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies, despite a strong rebound expected in 2024 with a growth rate of 7.09% [1] Economic Outlook - In 2024, Vietnam's economy is expected to rebound strongly, driven by exports, foreign direct investment, and supportive policies, achieving a growth rate of 7.09% [1] - The positive momentum is anticipated to continue into the first half of 2025, with GDP growth projected at 7.5%, supported by prior export investments, accelerated credit growth, and significant government spending [1] Trade Relations Impact - The economic outlook for Vietnam is heavily dependent on the outcomes of trade negotiations with the U.S., alongside increasing uncertainties in global trade policies and economic conditions [1] - The expected slowdown in economic growth to 6.5% in 2025 is attributed to the effects of U.S. tariff policies throughout the year and the anticipated cancellation of most government one-time stimulus measures [1] Future Projections - Further economic growth deceleration is expected in 2026 following the trends established in 2025 [1]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese economy** and its **"anti-involution" policy** targeting industries such as **electric vehicles** and **solar energy**. Core Points and Arguments - The **"anti-involution" policy** addresses excessive competition in advanced industries, which has emerged due to weak demand following the **2021 real estate market downturn** and previous supply-driven incentive mechanisms [1][2]. - Current measures differ from past capacity reduction efforts by focusing on **downstream price pressures** in advanced industries, addressing **private sector overcapacity**, and considering the macroeconomic context of **high debt** and **aging population** [1][3]. - Strategies to improve profit margins include **supply-side cleanup** and gradual demand stimulation, with specific measures such as: - **Trade credit plan** of **138 billion RMB** [3]. - **National fertility subsidies** totaling **100 billion RMB** [4]. - **Tuition fee reductions** amounting to **30 billion RMB** [5]. - Despite these stimulus measures, the **actual GDP growth rate** may fall below **4.5%** in the second half of **2025**, with a **nominal GDP growth rate** around **3.5%** and a **GDP deflator index** expected to remain low at **-0.8% to -0.9%** [1][5]. Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Key indicators for assessing the success of reforms include: - Comprehensive inflation recovery as reflected in the **Producer Price Index (PPI)** and **Core Consumer Price Index (CPI)**. - Stability in **corporate profit margins** and **bank net interest margins**. - An increase in the share of consumption in GDP and a decrease in household savings rates [1][6]. - Potential risk signals include: - Top-down capacity cuts without demand stimulation, which could harm downstream industries. - External factors like **U.S. tariffs** negatively impacting Chinese exports [2][6]. - Structural reforms needed for sustainable development include: - Adjusting local government incentive mechanisms to focus on improving living standards. - Reforming the tax system to encourage direct taxes and promote a consumption-oriented economy [2][6]. - The period starting from **September 2024** is crucial for China's efforts to combat deflation, indicating a deeper understanding of the challenges at the microeconomic level [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the GDP growth rate of Russia is projected to be 1.5% for 2025, which remains unchanged from previous survey results [1]

Group 1 - The South African Reserve Bank projects a GDP growth rate of 0.9% for 2025 and 1.3% for 2026 under a 3% inflation target model [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian economy is projected to grow at a GDP growth rate between 6.2% and 6.5% for the fiscal year 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The GDP growth forecast indicates a stable economic environment, suggesting resilience in various sectors [1] - This growth rate reflects a positive trend in economic recovery and development initiatives [1]

Core Insights - The central viewpoint indicates that Bank Negara Malaysia forecasts a GDP growth rate of 4%-4.8% for the year 2025 [1] - Additionally, the average inflation rate is projected to be between 1.5%-2.3% for the same year [1] Economic Projections - GDP Growth Rate: Expected to be in the range of 4%-4.8% for 2025 [1] - Inflation Rate: Anticipated average of 1.5%-2.3% for 2025 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank of Malaysia projects a GDP growth rate of 4% to 4.8% for the year 2025 [1] Group 1 - The Malaysian central bank's forecast indicates a positive economic outlook for 2025, suggesting resilience in the economy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, predicts that the GDP growth rate will reach 3% or higher by the first quarter of 2026 [1] Economic Outlook - The forecast indicates a positive economic trajectory for the U.S. economy, suggesting robust growth potential in the coming years [1]