Small deep value individual investor, with a modest private investment portfolio, split approx. 50%-50% between shares and call options. I have a B.Sc. in aeronautical engineering and over 6 years of experience as an engineering consultant in the aerospace sector. The latter statement is not relevant in any way whatsoever to my investment style, but I thought to add it for self-indulgent purposes. I have a contrarian investment style, highly risky, and often dealing with illiquid options. How illiquid? Well ...

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach between equity and derivatives [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Stock Selection Criteria - Preference is given to stocks that have undergone a recent sell-off, particularly when there is insider buying at the new lower price, indicating potential recovery [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but is open to owning shares in less stable markets, referred to as "banana republics" [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who purchase shares post-sell-off to ensure credibility and alignment with shareholder interests [1]

Core Insights - Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, has made significant adjustments to his stock portfolio, reducing the number of stocks to roughly half and exiting Chinese stocks while betting against the US tech sector [1][2][3] Group 1: Portfolio Adjustments - Burry's portfolio adjustments include a focus on healthcare, retail, and biotechnology sectors, moving away from technology stocks amid the AI boom [5] - Scion Asset Management has achieved an 11.01% return over the past year and a 113.55% return over the past five years, showcasing Burry's successful investment strategy [4] Group 2: UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (NYSE:UNH) - UnitedHealth Group is a significant holding in Burry's portfolio, with an equity stake of $6.24 million and a stock performance increase of 16.58% from the end of Q2 to October 9 [9] - The company is facing pressure from shareholders to adopt an independent board chair due to concerns over governance and recent earnings misses [10][11] Group 3: MercadoLibre Inc. (NASDAQ:MELI) - MercadoLibre holds an equity stake of $7.84 million in Burry's portfolio, with a stock performance decline of 14.78% from the end of Q2 to October 9 [13] - The company is experiencing competitive pressures from Amazon and Shopee in Brazil, which may impact its earnings in the upcoming quarters [14][15] - Despite expected revenue growth, analysts forecast that MercadoLibre's EBIT and earnings will fall short of consensus estimates, indicating potential challenges ahead [16]

Core Insights - The investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on high-risk, illiquid options and shares, with a balanced portfolio of approximately 50% in each [1] - The investment strategy involves identifying stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, particularly when insiders are buying shares at lower prices [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, their leverage, and to compare financial ratios with sector and industry averages [1] - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, using multicolor lines for support and resistance levels on weekly charts [1] Investment Strategy - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months [1] - A professional background check is conducted on each insider who purchased shares after a recent sell-off to ensure credibility [1] - The investor screens through thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, but may also invest in companies from less stable economies [1]

Core Viewpoint - The individual investor adopts a contrarian investment style, focusing on deep value opportunities, particularly in stocks that have recently experienced sell-offs due to non-recurrent events, while also considering insider buying as a positive signal [1] Investment Strategy - The investment portfolio is split approximately 50%-50% between shares and call options, indicating a balanced approach to risk and return [1] - The investor's timeframe for holding positions typically ranges from 3 to 24 months, suggesting a medium-term investment horizon [1] - Fundamental analysis is employed to assess the health of companies, including their leverage and financial ratios compared to sector and industry averages [1] Stock Selection Criteria - The investor screens thousands of stocks, primarily in the US, looking for those that have undergone recent sell-offs, especially when insiders are purchasing shares at lower prices [1] - Professional background checks are conducted on insiders who buy shares post-sell-off, adding a layer of due diligence to the investment process [1] Technical Analysis - Technical analysis is utilized to optimize entry and exit points, with a focus on support and resistance levels on weekly charts, employing multicolor lines for clarity [1] - Trend lines are occasionally drawn in multicolor patterns to assist in visualizing price movements [1]

Key Points Rivian's stock is down big since going public in 2021. Contrarian investors could be getting a steal. 10 stocks we like better than Rivian Automotive › As one of the best investors in history, Warren Buffett has uttered many quotable comments over the years. And while he hasn't directly discussed Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ: RIVN) in public, his holding company was an early investor in a competitor, BYD, which has become one of the largest EV stocks in the world. Still, there are two famo ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street analysts often adjust price targets based on stock momentum rather than true value, leading to less reliable targets during market downturns [1] Company Overview: Adobe Inc. - Adobe's current stock price is $358.40, with a price target of $433.41, indicating a potential upside of 20.59% [2][10] - The company has experienced a 19% decline in shares year-to-date, currently trading at 64% of its 52-week high [3] - Adobe's free cash flow has shown consistent growth, with $2.1 billion reported this quarter compared to $1.9 billion last year, highlighting long-term value [3][8] Financial Performance - Adobe's latest quarterly earnings report showed net revenue of nearly $6 billion, a 12% year-over-year increase [4] - The company has $20.4 billion in remaining performance obligations, indicating strong future revenue visibility [6][7] - Adobe's earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter was $5.31, surpassing the consensus estimate of $5.18, suggesting conservative views from analysts [11] Market Positioning - Adobe's subscription-based revenue model provides stability and predictability, making it a defensive play amid market uncertainty [5] - The company's price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 12.8x, significantly higher than the computer sector average of 7.2x, reflecting a premium valuation [7] - Share buybacks totaling $2 billion for eight million shares indicate management's belief that the stock is undervalued [8][9] Analyst Sentiment - Despite a downgrade from Morgan Stanley from $520 to $450, the new target still implies a 25% upside potential from current trading levels [11] - Adobe is currently rated as a "Hold" by analysts, with some top-rated analysts suggesting other stocks may be better buys [13]

Billionaire hedge fund manager Bill Ackman described one of the most lucrative trades of his career during a recent appearance at The Citadel, calling a bet on a bankrupt shopping mall operator “the best investment” he ever made.The Most ‘Contrarian’ Investment You Can MakeSpeaking to cadets and guests at the Baker School of Business, Ackman recalled buying a 25% stake in General Growth Properties (GGP) in late 2008, when the company's stock had plunged from $63 to just 34 cents per share.“The stock went fr ...

Company Overview - Americold Realty Trust (COLD) is currently trading at approximately $12.83, with a forward P/E ratio of 27.89 [1] - The company is viewed as a compelling investment opportunity due to its historic discount, trading at around 5.8x net debt to EBITDA and over a 50% discount to the analyst consensus NAV of approximately $28 [2] Market Dynamics - The cold storage market is experiencing growth driven by increasing demand for frozen food, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce [3] - Americold and Lineage control about 54% of the North American market share, indicating limited new supply in the face of rising demand [3] Financial Performance - Americold has shown growth in Funds From Operations (FFO), with analyst projections indicating a 7-10% growth in Net Operating Income (NOI) for the next year [3] - The implied cap rate for Americold is in the double digits, significantly above historical private market sales trends in the cold storage sector [2] Investment Thesis - The current risk-reward profile for investing in Americold appears favorable due to its historically low share price, adequate dividend coverage, and substantial NAV gap compared to private market trends [4] - The company is considered a top position in Nugget Capital Partners' portfolio, highlighting its strong market position and resilience in the cold storage industry [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment towards Pinterest (NYSE: PINS) is negative, with a 25% decline in stock price, but this is viewed as a strength by the company, indicating a contrarian investment opportunity [1] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The company emphasizes a contrarian investment approach, focusing on understanding market sentiment and competition to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The research aims to provide clarity and conviction for serious investors, utilizing alternative data sources to gain a competitive edge [1] Group 2: Historical Performance - A notable past investment example includes Carvana, which was recommended at $5 per share at the beginning of 2023, leading to a return of over 60 times in three years due to an overblown short interest and positive alternative data signals [1]